Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Alekos]

I think from the charts I've looked at the reason is Greenland and Scandernavia don't get the pressure rises in winter so much now

[Dennis]

could things get a real change to winter-cold....... this chart says yes

[Seasonality]

39 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

One thing I noticed is that GEFS 6z are much less sure about how quickly that cold over central Europe dissapears. Quite huge spread around 9th-10th January. It wasn't there on 00z. Maybe something to watch for.

Warsaw ensembles illustrate this well, at around 10 Jan there is a spread from -16 to +3 degrees. One thing I have noticed though is that the operational run for Warsaw at least has often been on the mild side on the GFS ensembles for the last few runs, again from around the 10 Jan so it seems this is a fairly significant juncture, at least for part of Europe. Not sure if @daz_4 and @jvenge have noticed similar as to where op runs for Czech Republic and Moldova sit within their suites. In the more reliable there is some nice deep cold for a big swathe of Europe in the next few days as just pointed out by new member @Alekos (Welcome to Netweather!). A taste of deep cold is always welcome.

 

 

 

[Purga]

Looking ahead - the ECM 46-day control run is very nice if you like cold - it shows persistent E'ly winds after D14. Trough disruption to the west at D10, with LP moving SE under the AH which increases heights and drifts E near Iceland. The combined high settles over Scandinavia.giving a very tasty pressure profile towards the end of the month.

The ECM control on todays EC15 shows a broadly similar picture.

The latest EPS & GEFS06z both show continuing consistentcy and signal colder conditions after mid month

Admittedly until we get to mid month the 'reliable' time frame charts are not that scintillating but I'm still optimistic based on what the ENS suites are showing & have been showing for a while now.

 

Edited January 3, 2017 by Purga

[Guest]

Can we ban Alekos just for that outlandish IMBY post only joking Welcome Alekos to this mad house.. Mods we should set up a reginal thread for our friends in other parts of europe so we can see there wonderful snow...

[booferking]

It has to be said -20 @850 in North Greece is really extraordinary crazy at a latitude of 38° N we are on avg of 55° N in this country were does it all go wrong... This isle feels like a desert complete desolation at times

Edited January 3, 2017 by booferking

[Seasonality]

3 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Can we ban Alekos just for that outlandish IMBY post only joking Welcome Alekos to this mad house.. Mods we should set up a reginal thread for our friends in other parts of europe so we can see there wonderful snow...

There is a weather around the world section. https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/112-weather-around-the-world/ And for @Alekos there is already a Weather in Greece thread https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/84989-weather-news-from-greece/  

[stodge]

15 minutes ago, Alekos said:

I think from the charts I've looked at the reason is Greenland and Scandernavia don't get the pressure rises in winter so much now

Interesting points and welcome along, Alekos.

We get very close to a NE'ly from this chart but it's a fail and you can see why:

Would it have been a failure 20-30 years ago - is the jet more powerful than it was and if so, why ?

I expected the HP to strengthen over the cold interior of Scandinavia (as I certainly remember from 1981) but instead it collapses almost immediately under that strong northern jet.

[jvenge]

9 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Warsaw ensembles illustrate this well, at around 10 Jan there is a spread from -16 to +3 degrees. One thing I have noticed though is that the operational run for Warsaw at least has often been on the mild side on the GFS ensembles for the last few runs, again from around the 10 Jan so it seems this is a fairly significant juncture, at least for part of Europe. Not sure if @daz_4 and @jvenge have noticed similar as to where op runs for Czech Republic and Moldova sit within their suites. In the more reliable there is some nice deep cold for a big swathe of Europe in the next few days as just pointed out by new member @Alekos (Welcome to Netweather!). A taste of deep cold is always welcome.

 

 

 

The models have handled the cold shot incoming quite well, I noticed. I can't view individual ECM members to see how they ranked in, but the GEFS were quite consistent after the switch. Both have been changing for Day 8, but minor adjustments. That's to say, they flipped around the time the cold times for the UK were showing and people were going into meltdown here. At that time, op runs were showing unusually mild weather for here. Just a FYI to those who take model runs as gospel. Things can and do change and you don't need to be relying on what deep FI shows to get it.

They both have modeled this coming cold spell fairly well, but differences remain between the colder ECM and the GFS. That's to say, both are frigidly cold runs, but the ECM is colder, where as the GFS has a little more precipitation. Trying to reach a verdict on precipitation this far out though is a little pointless, though. The 6z took this a little further and unusually a lot of the ensembles extended the cold shot, vs the mixed approach from day 8 previously.

 

[phil nw.]

6 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Can we ban Alekos just for that outlandish IMBY post only joking Welcome Alekos to this mad house.. Mods we should set up a reginal thread for our friends in other parts of europe so we can see there wonderful snow...

There is a section in the forum for overseas weather discussion with a number of threads running for some of the European countries.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/112-weather-around-the-world/

Our European members are very welcome to post about their weather in there or start a new thread in that section if one is not already open for their country.

edit.I see this info has been posted,Thanks.

Meantime some recent posts have been removed to keep on topic,Model discussion only please.

Thanks.

[Seasonality]

7 minutes ago, jvenge said:

The models have handled the cold shot incoming quite well, I noticed. I can't view individual ECM members to see how they ranked in, but the GEFS were quite consistent after the switch. Both have been changing for Day 8, but minor adjustments. That's to say, they flipped around the time the cold times for the UK were showing and people were going into meltdown here. At that time, op runs were showing unusually mild weather for here. Just a FYI to those who take model runs as gospel. Things can and do change and you don't need to be relying on what deep FI shows to get it.

They both have modeled this coming cold spell fairly well, but differences remain between the colder ECM and the GFS. That's to say, both are frigidly cold runs, but the ECM is colder, where as the GFS has a little more precipitation. Trying to reach a verdict on precipitation this far out though is a little pointless, though. The 6z took this a little further and unusually a lot of the ensembles extended the cold shot, vs the mixed approach from day 8 previously.

 

Agreed the European cold snap has been well modelled, it is certainly pleasing to see a 'count down' to a cold outcome rather than go through endless twists and turns. The colder options have been extended as you say but being just one run it is more for watching with interest of course. Personally I like slightly moderated temps with more snow, but each to his own.

[jvenge]

Just now, Seasonality said:

Agreed the European cold snap has been well modelled, it is certainly pleasing to see a 'count down' to a cold outcome rather than go through endless twists and turns. The colder options have been extended as you say but being just one run it is more for watching with interest of course. Personally I like slightly moderated temps with more snow, but each to his own.

What's interesting is that GEFS are not showing the temperatures that the ECM is, even in all the ensembles. We only talk about 3 degrees here, but you would have thought they would be singing from the same hymn sheet by now. ECM moved the most so far, as it was originally a good 7 degrees difference until yesterday, but I watch with interest the runs now to look at precipitation and temperature tweaks. In the past, I have tended to trust the ECM a little more when it comes to temperature. 

 

 

[mountain shadow]

45 minutes ago, Dennis said:

could things get a real change to winter-cold....... this chart says yes

Where's that from Dennis?

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Where's that from Dennis?

That's NOAA cpc analysis for day 11from yesterday 

good site to judge what the pros are thinking 

 

[mountain shadow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

That's NOAA cpc analysis for day 11from yesterday 

good site to judge what the pros are thinking 

 

Cheers BlueArmy and Dennis. With that chart being hand drawn by a human it does indeed look promising.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Cheers BlueArmy and Dennis. With that chart being hand drawn by a human it does indeed look promising.

You will need to check the human side - some charts are generated as super ens means from the days gefs products and some are human interpretation of cross model assessment 

 

[Nouska]

15 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Where's that from Dennis?

Since nobody has actually provided the link, here it is and one I use a lot, especially analogue section.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php?dayin=11

The chart Dennis showed is the GEFS 06Z run from yesterday - bottom section with 700mb analysis.

[shotski]

21 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You will need to check the human side - some charts are generated as super ens means from the days gefs products and some are human interpretation of cross model assessment 

 

Looks similar to the Anomaly charts that knocker and JH have already posted. 

Could this be where we're heading mid month ? 

Edited January 3, 2017 by shotski

[mpkio2]

Hello all once more!

Well, it does appear that the GFS (It's GEFS), ECM (To a certain degree,), CFS and JMA have all lead us up the garden path!  - with regards to HLB and severe cold!

This is the 2nd time the GFS has done this so far this winter. Well done to UKMO/GEM for correctly calling the current short-term pattern.

So far this winter, I have remained very cautiously optimistic, not believing any model unless there has been cross model agreement throughout the board - even with consistency within its own OP and members as illustrated from last weeks GEFS and all the cold and snowy blocked runs.

Heres is a post I made (Copy+Pated from last thread!) about a week ago, regarding the mid-lat block around New Years Day:

"As some other more knowledgable posters have already mentioned ( @Glacier Point and @Tamara, ), there are some small signs of some more favourable background signals that might start to play their part and help our chances in amplifying the pattern (MJO moving to Phase 8/1/2, GWO orbit phase 2, etc,). But caution, as has been warned most assertively this Winter, is warranted here. These things all need to fall into place at the right time in order for us to take advantage of the evolving pattern.

The disconnect between both the GEFS and EPS and their Operational runs is also a big concern. Either one could be wrong to a certain degree, but, just as likely, they could also be, as others have mentioned, "firming up" on the evolving pattern and how it will play out, seeing to all the options on the table that could occur.

What do I think? I thinks its best to sit back and wait. I truly think that New Years Day (When the Mid Atlantic High forms to our west,) is the tipping point. So for me, anything after t120 (For now,) is FL. Until the models come to some sort of an agreement, everything is just for fun."

I, like most of you, am very disapointed by the forecast that the models are showing for our little island.  I think we were very close to seeing an established block around the North Atlantic/Greenland area - there just wasn't enough of a retrogression push of the high through the means of the MJO signal phase 8 (Which has fallen back into COD ).

Not only that but I think most long range models have been all over the place with regards to our weather this winter - Especially ECM46 and, to a certain effect, GLOSEA, with each update pushing back the "severe" cold signal. ECMWF Monthly model had been predicting high-lat blocking since last September to occur during December, January and Febuary. As we all know, there was no high-lat blocking in December, so that was a bust. Some of the other world models (Brazillian model/APEG/JMA/cansips) had been predicting a "milder" Decmeber so hats off  to them for correctly forecasting that - Albeit, in a "averaged" 3 month period of DEC/JAN/FEB so the jury still out if predicted JAN/FEB still corect!!!)

Gav'sWeatherVids video on ECMWF Seasonal Model (November 2016):

Gav'sWeatherVids Seasonal Model Round-Up (Winter 2016/2017):

As can be seen, I believe my caution was very much well warranted- unfortuantely . Anything the models showed after where FL was upto that point, was exactly that - FL (Fantasy Island). Because some of the drivers have not played ball, we are now seeing our Mid-Lat Block falling away:

06z GFS t48:

What the models got right though was the cold plunge falling down over Europe with the AO going neturaul and NAO going negative:

06z GFS t06 (Current Conditions):

42 hours later.....

06z GFS t48:

We do get some colder uppers just barely flirting with the eastern side of the country (-4 - -8), but nothing to the extent of what the GFS was previously showing for whole country.

So, where do we go from here? Well for the sanity of myself (And everyone else on this forum,), analysing all models, I believe there are two options here for us to take:

1. Many scandi blocks that have occured in the past, sometimes occur in the short range (t24- t48), and as can be seen in the models so far, there is signs of the high pushing towards Scandy area:

00z ECM t48:

06z GFS t36:

06z GFS t42:

06z GFS t48:

Notice how the UK- High is trying the edge towards Scandy, trying to retrogress. IF the Euro trough digs south enough, you can bet that the high will try even harder to retrogress to that area - however, this goes against the background signals of MJO, but surprises like this have cropped up in such a small timeframe!! Keep an eye on it!

2. However, if the high sticks around the top of us and collapses south, an evolution which is predicted through all the models, with cross-model agreement, will most probably occur:

06z GFS t120:

00z ECM t120:

00z UKMO t120:

00z GEM t120:

All models singing from the same hymm sheet there! Very good cross-model agreement . Positives to take? Well, the PV is centered, but not the "Monst-ball-like-monster", and appears to be being pulled at different parts around the world - especially down the Pacific Ocean, North Pacific Ocean and Europe. With Low heaights around Europe, this enables for any HLB to establish to be cut off, support it and to (Hopefully!!!!) allow for an easterly for the UK further down the line. . Don't take my word for it though!!!!

Despite the pestimism, I am still cautiously optimistic for the UK's chances of colder weather through the rest of winter. I may be mistaken but I swear we're only at the beginning of January and not the end of Febuary! We still have two whole months to go - potentially three if you include March - If to go by anything, March 2013 is a real good example that the UK can still get cold weather in "Spring". Taking on board @Tamara last post, cuationing that the "pistal firing too early" (With regards to cold weather) and GP's forecast of post mid-Jan cold, IMO, there is still much to happy about.

Anyway, thats enough from me. Remember, watch around that Scandy area for potential height rises.

Eyes down to see what the 12z's grace us with.

It can't get any worse, surely?

~mpkio2~

Edited January 3, 2017 by mpkio2

[legritter]

Well i,v certainly not giving up on a good cold snowy spell , its very frustrating watching our models showing high pressure in the wrong place for us coldies but at this early stage of winter i feel we have plenty of time left .this mornings Ecm at day 8 i,m hoping will go on to show a low moving to the east of our local ,no guarantee but looking at all current charts etc etc it does look like as we approach about the 12th of january  several colder options could arrive to give us something to be cheerfull about ,GFS as recently been tempting us with a northerly blast on recent runs ,talk of a possible easterly by met off although low chance , and some of the prophets of cold and snow [bastardi and co etc ] is there something lurking out there , all very interesting ,well GFS starting up soon ,ecm tonight one to watch , death to slugs especially euro ones , i havent posted much lately but just in case any one missed my h n year message , all the best gang ,we are a tough bunch of Hunters ,so lets hope later today we can start the Hunt for cold and snow again ,cheers 

Spoiler

 

 

[jy]

Just a one off to lighten the mood,this period of weather,reminds me and folk of a certain age,of the Eric Morecombe..Andre Previn classic....I know we have high pressure....but not necessarily in the right places.

[radiohead]

06Z GFS(P) offers up nothing of interesting.

Fingers crossed we get some interesting 12Z runs today. I can't say I feel very hopeful though. Even though the GEFS is showing a trend towards cooler upper air temps towards mid month, looking at the individual members, there doesn't seem be any obvious cluster with a similar pattern.

[jvenge]

11 minutes ago, radiohead said:

06Z GFS(P) offers up nothing of interesting.

Fingers crossed we get some interesting 12Z runs today. I can't say I feel very hopeful though. Even though the GEFS is showing a trend towards cooler upper air temps towards mid month, looking at the individual members, there doesn't seem be any obvious cluster with a similar pattern.

And this is the right way to read ensembles, for those confused by them. X amount showing cold is no good if they don't get there in a broadly similar way.

[karlos1983]

10 minutes ago, jvenge said:

And this is the right way to read ensembles, for those confused by them. X amount showing cold is no good if they don't get there in a broadly similar way.

That's all very well for GEFS but not many have access to ecm ensembles individual runs. I'm not sure we can even view the postage stamps anymore can we? I know they used to be very handy and @nick sussex  used them regularly 

 I'm not sure I really agree with the statement anyway. If it's trends you are looking for, then you want them grouping in the same direction, ignoring the detail, especially with the extended period as it is extremely unlikely many of the members will  agree on a route to cold like for like at D10+. 2 GFS op runs struggle!

Edited January 3, 2017 by karlos1983

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, jvenge said:

And this is the right way to read ensembles, for those confused by them. X amount showing cold is no good if they don't get there in a broadly similar way.

Yep 100% right we had a trend to build a high out west and the mean was dropping to -5 850 from just before mid month on then we starting losing that signal for height rises out west but to see height rises to the east and when this happens you usually end up with nothing at all messy setup indeed.

Lets see what the 12z bring hopefully something to cheer us up.