Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[SMU]

2 hours ago, Seasonality said:

Warsaw ensembles illustrate this well, at around 10 Jan there is a spread from -16 to +3 degrees. One thing I have noticed though is that the operational run for Warsaw at least has often been on the mild side on the GFS ensembles for the last few runs, again from around the 10 Jan so it seems this is a fairly significant juncture, at least for part of Europe. Not sure if @daz_4 and @jvenge have noticed similar as to where op runs for Czech Republic and Moldova sit within their suites. In the more reliable there is some nice deep cold for a big swathe of Europe in the next few days as just pointed out by new member @Alekos (Welcome to Netweather!). A taste of deep cold is always welcome.

 

 

 

This is because all of sudden the GFS is seeing a ridge ahead of the low @120 which prevents the eastward spread of the mild air-

expectation as long as the UKMO holds is for that to back west as per yesterdays post....

Edited January 3, 2017 by Steve Murr

[Seasonality]

21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This is because all of sudden the GFS is seeing a ridge ahead of the low @120 which prevents the eastward spread of the mild air-

expectation as long as the UKMO holds is for that to back west as per yesterdays post....

It'll be interesting to watch thats for sure. UKMO 144h from the 00z for reference and 06z GFS clearly show the more resilent ridge on UKMO output. Forecasts for central Europe have reflected this with current Meto forecast for Warsaw for 9th showing subzero temps holding on and forecasts using GFS data (and current ECM) for that matter showing more of a warm up. Nice one.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Seasonality

[There's a storm a coming]

20 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This is because all of sudden the GFS is seeing a ridge ahead of the low @120 which prevents the eastward spread of the mild air-

expectation as long as the UKMO holds is for that to back west as per yesterdays post....

Hi Steve. Big joe B on twitter believes the UKMO is the closest to what he thinks will happen on the east coast...he says big storm for them?

Tasac

[Seasonality]

5 minutes ago, There's a storm a coming said:

Hi Steve. Big joe B on twitter believes the UKMO is the closest to what he thinks will happen on the east coast...he says big storm for them?

Tasac

More on what Steve is alluding to. 12z UKMO at 120 vs GFS at 120. Low digging in on UKMO which has a much stronger ridge. Milder air held much further west as a result.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Seasonality

[booferking]

The ridge building between the 2 lows are of interest for us in the uk if it can build more like the uk model..

 

Edited January 3, 2017 by booferking

[radiohead]

Well now....

[SMU]

UKMO continues to head towards the forecast scenario with a big east coast storm & for us @ 144 a big dive SE of that low into a europe where the height profiles support that sort of angled attack- 

The GFS is slowley coming on board buy again unless you micro analize the trend you cant see it

sadly the UKMO 168 link isnt working- but tonights UKMO 144 is VERY exciting- lets hope theres a GFS ENS or 2 to show the evolution-

S

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO continues to head towards the forecast scenario with a big east coast storm & for us @ 144 a big dive SE of that low into a europe where the height profiles support that sort of angled attack- 

The GFS is slowley coming on board buy again unless you micro analize the trend you cant see it

sadly the UKMO 168 link isnt working- but tonights UKMO 144 is VERY exciting- lets hope theres a GFS ENS or 2 to show the evolution-

S

 

I suppose if and let's be honest it's a big if because of the timescale involved, but if we get this low into Europe then yes the ridge behind it logically will build north and slow the next areas of low pressure coming from the west, potentially disrupting and slipping under then block that's been allowed to build north. So this slower evolution is pivotal on any winter set up showing its hand but a lot has to go right with this first low slipping southeast into Europe first.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO continues to head towards the forecast scenario with a big east coast storm & for us @ 144 a big dive SE of that low into a europe where the height profiles support that sort of angled attack- 

The GFS is slowley coming on board buy again unless you micro analize the trend you cant see it

sadly the UKMO 168 link isnt working- but tonights UKMO 144 is VERY exciting- lets hope theres a GFS ENS or 2 to show the evolution-

S

 

Slightly amplifying more with each run but the progressive nature of the movement of lows surely means this will not come off, watch the evolution, the lows are moving too fast that the pattern will keep flattening.

[Seasonality]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO continues to head towards the forecast scenario with a big east coast storm & for us @ 144 a big dive SE of that low into a europe where the height profiles support that sort of angled attack- 

The GFS is slowley coming on board buy again unless you micro analize the trend you cant see it

sadly the UKMO 168 link isnt working- but tonights UKMO 144 is VERY exciting- lets hope theres a GFS ENS or 2 to show the evolution-

S

 

Yes, very well aligned for the SE diving low and the colder air has remained entrenched over much of Europe, compared to the GFS where low pressure pushes over the top and the cold air has retreated more towards South Eastern Europe and Turkey. 

[radiohead]

12Z GEM also sends the low SE

[mountain shadow]

13 minutes ago, booferking said:

 

The separation of energy between the Iceland and Newfoundland low is key. Maintain that and a decent ridge is on, which would then slowly topple into Scandi as the Iceland low moves SE.

Can but dream..

[Stuie]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO continues to head towards the forecast scenario with a big east coast storm & for us @ 144 a big dive SE of that low into a europe where the height profiles support that sort of angled attack- 

The GFS is slowley coming on board buy again unless you micro analize the trend you cant see it

sadly the UKMO 168 link isnt working- but tonights UKMO 144 is VERY exciting- lets hope theres a GFS ENS or 2 to show the evolution-

S

 

Steve, all the talk has been about the UKMO "getting on board" with the other 2 models when they showed the "better" charts. What are we saying now, the other 2 have to get on board with the UKMO or are we throwing all our eggs in 1 basket?

[SMU]

1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Steve, all the talk has been about the UKMO "getting on board" with the other 2 models when they showed the "better" charts. What are we saying now, the other 2 have to get on board with the UKMO or are we throwing all our eggs in 1 basket?

Yes the GFS & ECM have to move to the UKMO between 120 & 144..... Now when did that last happen ..?? Hummmm

[chicken soup]

Isn't the UKMO notoriously unreliable at 144...im not getting sucked in by this.

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Steve, all the talk has been about the UKMO "getting on board" with the other 2 models when they showed the "better" charts. What are we saying now, the other 2 have to get on board with the UKMO or are we throwing all our eggs in 1 basket?

If I could only throw all my cold, snowy, frozen eggs into one basket they would be thrown into the UKMO's. It never saw this coming weekend's cold spell-that-won't-verify that the others saw and hopefully, hopefully, it is seeing something of cold substance now which will verify. I'm not the chief programmer of that model or anything and I know I keep banging on about it but, short-range, it is usually the one you want to see showing winter cold

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Isn't the UKMO notoriously unreliable at 144...im not getting sucked in by this.

Nope, a weathergeek myth.

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Steve, all the talk has been about the UKMO "getting on board" with the other 2 models when they showed the "better" charts. What are we saying now, the other 2 have to get on board with the UKMO or are we throwing all our eggs in 1 basket?

Well if we take the models performance over the last few weeks in isolation we said firstly that the UKMO was the one to watch when it came to colder weather, it didn't get on board and ultimately was the most accurate of the big 3 when it came to the final outcome. Now, the same thing is being said, but the other way around, it shows cold and may just be the way forward. Steve makes a good point here that it may again be the model leading the way. I can understand scepticism about a 144h chart but the angle of attack and differing profile over Europe is apparent even at 120h. We are approaching the reliable here... But need to see the solution firming over the next few days.

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Isn't the UKMO notoriously unreliable at 144...im not getting sucked in by this.

By all means don't get dragged in by it but, last week, GFS and ECM were predicting cold and possible snow this week and this weekend. UKMO never did

[Sperrin]

4 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Isn't the UKMO notoriously unreliable at 144...im not getting sucked in by this.

It stomped all over the GFS and ECM when they went full throttle cold in the very recent past. 

Is there anyway to discern the 850s from the UKMO output?

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Nope, a weathergeek myth.

When the UKMO shows a route to cold and the ECM & GFS don't,  the UKMO almost always backs down. When the ECM & GFS are the ones showing cold and the UKMO doesn't, it's the ECM and GFS that usually back down. 

99% of the time the above rule is observed! 

Ergo, I think we're safe to assume the UKMO model is out on a limb at day 6

Edited January 3, 2017 by CreweCold

[bluearmy]

I wish ecm only went to day 7 like years ago

then some of you would value it more

its 8-10 day output does nothing for its reputation with many model watchers

As an aside, the Siberian high is showing signs of heading west which will hopefully help with the trough disruption sending the low heights to our south week 2

[radiohead]

Will be interesting to see how many of the GEFS members support the UKMO and more importantly if the ECM supports it.

[booferking]

8 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Isn't the UKMO notoriously unreliable at 144...im not getting sucked in by this.

The ridge is clearly there at 120hr and forming well..

[Ben Sainsbury]

3 minutes ago, Sperrin said:

It stomped all over the GFS and ECM when they went full throttle cold in the very recent past. 

Is there anyway to discern the 850s from the UKMO output?

Using the "Dam" number and Pressure this is an approximate value in the chart.

Sorry it is slightly blurry.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Ben Sainsbury