South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[matt111]

4 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

I'm just playing chilled Jazz and wondering when spring starts.   

April. 

[Frosty hollows]

22 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

I'm just playing chilled Jazz and wondering when spring starts.   

I've got daffodils out. Naff off cold

[khodds]

1 hour ago, Nights King said:

Likewise but this time I swear I will not tell a soul about it until t24 

That’s still far too early. 

if it goes wrong I blame you.

evening all, I’m back from the big smoke! Interestingly, Wells is the coldest spot (I habitually check the temperature on the car on all journeys ?) it’s -1 here, and touched 0 over Salisbury plain.

[festivalking]

Safe journeys @Nights King could you be a good chap and bring back some snow. Cheers!

Edited February 9, 2018 by festivalking

[matt111]

9 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Safe journeys @Nights King could you be a good chap and bring back some snow. Cheers!

Or not come back too soon. 

[kevvo]

I had the joy of visiting Buxton & Bakewell in the Peak District in the last few days. I actually set foot on snow & was surrounded by it. About 2mm deep! A childlike excitement about what we used to see as the end of a snowfall down south. Ahh, well. Nice while it lasted.

[Frosty hollows]

0 at the moment but there's already frost on the grass. The early morning walk to work looks like it'll either be icy/frosty/mild/wet. Good luck with forecasting t +792 when t+8 is uncertain 

[jy]

Good point made earlier about short range forecast,needs more readings and interest its a good addition,being honest long overdue,t240..384 pointless,so Knocker doing great stuff,along with others,really hope interest in it improves and as a result its retained next year.

[matt111]

Went down to 0.3°C about 40 minutes ago but now it's back up to 0.9°C. 

[MP-R]

Don't know how reliable any of the models can be with this SSW taking shape, but the 18Z GFS is balls if you're of the cold persuasion. Personally, I think 1-2 days at a time is the way to go at the moment, now more than ever.

Just above freezing out there with frost already present.

[karlos1983]

Got to -1.4c now at -0.8c

ssw takes hold tomorrow, futile looking with any degree of confidence until after that’s occurred. Even then it’ll still be “wobbly “

[Zephyr]

18z Euro4 at +48 not looking the best for us 

[Frosty hollows]

-3 here now. Must set off for work early. Reckon there could be a good winter scene photo opp first thing before the rain arrives

 

 

 

 

 

*frost

[Ashme]

How long does the SSW last and is there a possibility it won't affect our weather at all?? I'm getting really frustrated with myself because I'm trying to learn but there's soooo much going on and soooo much to learn  I don't know where to start!!! #cantteachanolddognewtricks ??????

[Zephyr]

00z EURO4 in, why oh why can rain make it across to us but snow just stalls..

 

 

Could be a radar watcher though.

Edited February 10, 2018 by Zephyr

[Andy Bown]

Another Saturday morning, another bout of rain on the way, 4 in a row!!!!

[Frosty hollows]

Overnight low of -6.2. Temps recovering to -2 currently

[karlos1983]

6 hours ago, Ashme said:

How long does the SSW last and is there a possibility it won't affect our weather at all?? I'm getting really frustrated with myself because I'm trying to learn but there's soooo much going on and soooo much to learn  I don't know where to start!!! #cantteachanolddognewtricks ??????

Hi Ashme

the effects of the SSW will probably be felt until spring now, the PV unlikely to fully recover from what I’ve read from the strat guys. It does not mean we will get cold, it just significantly improves our chances. We could consider ourselves unlucky if we don’t get a decent cold spell out of it, but that’s a bit like Groundhog Day in here, nothin new eh! 

RE learning, my advice would be try and get your head around understanding the models in the troposphere, concentrating on the pressure charts and 850 temps. Also the Jet Stream (although that’s high up, it’s easy to follow) These are what ultimately will decide our weather. Jet south of the uk in winter, generally brings colder weather, jet coming through the UK in winter means zonal wet and windy weather, jet to the north of the uk, generally more settled weather. Then you can use the pressure charts and 850 temps to perhaps have an idea of what the weather will be on the ground. All good fun, and there are loads of learning areas. Don’t be afraid to ask questions!

Ps. Be warned though, once model watching has you, there’s no escape! 

Oh and remember anything past +96 is fl. ( I need to occasionally remind myself of that lol)

Edited February 10, 2018 by karlos1983

[Polar Bear]

1 hour ago, Zephyr said:

00z EURO4 in, why oh why can rain make it across to us but snow just stalls..

 

 

Could be a radar watcher though.

We have woken up to ice on cars here, and freezing temps. Haven’t checked yet but no doubt around -2 or -1. But the interesting thing is we have rain turning up probably in the next hour. Which actually will be a blessing for me this morn, as I could do without hard ground in about 2 hours or so. Question is will it or just be freezing rain. Or dare I say it some snow. radar is definitely saying rain with no change. Let’s see heh? 

[Polar Bear]

1 hour ago, Zephyr said:

00z EURO4 in, why oh why can rain make it across to us but snow just stalls..

 

 

Could be a radar watcher though.

You know why, snow is so flaky in nature with little confidence and rain pours out everywhere. 

[karlos1983]

There’s really only one thing that matters today! COYG ???? nerves are setting in! ?

 

[knocker]

Cloudy, Ns and St, with continuous slight rain Temp 8C

[lettice]

Slight frost here this morning, light grey skies.
Low of -1.1c at 4am
Now, 3.7c, 1016.0 hPa, light SW wind 5-8mph.
Not looking like a nice day ahead, Rain and strong winds 40-45mph forecast this afternoon.

[dec10snow]

1 hour ago, Polar Bear said:

We have woken up to ice on cars here, and freezing temps. Haven’t checked yet but no doubt around -2 or -1. But the interesting thing is we have rain turning up probably in the next hour. Which actually will be a blessing for me this morn, as I could do without hard ground in about 2 hours or so. Question is will it or just be freezing rain. Or dare I say it some snow. radar is definitely saying rain with no change. Let’s see heh? 

I don’t think so unfortunately, think you’ll find the temps rising quite quickly ahead of the front... I’ll happily be proven wrong though (for your sake!)

[offerman]

2 hours ago, Zephyr said:

00z EURO4 in, why oh why can rain make it across to us but snow just stalls..

 

 

Could be a radar watcher though.

Great question, one of which I have also pondered too.  

The Answer is, we need to chop off wales with an almighty sword digger anything , then tow it round over Scotland down North Sea and plonk it straight there . This will allow great land mass on eastern side for colder weather from easter to filter to us.

OR just plonk wales off coast Southwest Ireland off Cornwall  ,Ireland try and block gulfstream a tad :-) 

should help a little for incoming westerly snow streamers to make it to Somerset Wiltshire areas ??