Novel Coronavirus – China

[nick sussex]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Problem is apart from travel restrictions what can you do, the Heatlh service cannot just suddenly build 20 new hospitals in one week, it takes donkeys years to get 10's of thousands of intensive care beds up and running.

It’s not a case of building hospitals but doing everything to slow the spread so that the NHS isn’t overwhelmed .

As soon as that happens your fatality rates go up . The 0.1 flu rate is because that’s spread over quite a few months .

A sudden surge of cases is what causes the problem . I think the UK still has a bit of time to play with .

France is different especially as there are very large clusters in specific regions . Macron should be bringing in severe restrictions now .

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, Donegal said:

I think 5M fled Wuhan before lock down. Anyway it's so dumb. All packed in a train, bound to be some who have it. Just transporting it to a different region. 

Yes - you might not have it and might not ever have ended up having it, but your actions could now mean you end up dead - Suicide Jockeys if you ask me.

[Snowy L]

Bit harsh to blame people in a complete state of panic. The blame lies with the authorities who gave everyone warning of when the lockdown starts instead of implementing it immediately.

Edited March 8, 2020 by Snowy L

[ArHu3]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Problem is apart from travel restrictions what can you do, the Heatlh service cannot just suddenly build 20 new hospitals in one week, it takes donkeys years to get 10's of thousands of intensive care beds up and running.

The Netherlands has thousands of subterranean hospital beds all over the country build during the cold war, the UK probably has too 

[Zak M]

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

It’s not a case of building hospitals but doing everything to slow the spread so that the NHS isn’t overwhelmed .

As soon as that happens your fatality rates go up . The 0.1 flu rate is because that’s spread over quite a few months .

A sudden surge of cases is what causes the problem . I think the UK still has a bit of time to play with .

France is different especially as there are very large clusters in specific regions . Macron should be bringing in severe restrictions now .

Sorry Nick, i thought you were referring to hospital bed shortages, the problem is we might not have that time to play with as there might be 10-20000 people who start having symptoms in the next week.

[alexisj9]

27 minutes ago, Donegal said:

 

Now I'm more interested in the other two, and also the fact that most, but not all, had other conditions. 

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

dumb for the other people for the people fleeing it's a no brainer. Flee and not get infected or flee and infect others, you can't lose really

Nope - if you self quarantine how the hell can you become infected in your own home?

Edited March 8, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[ArHu3]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nope - if you self quarantine how the hell can you become infected in your own home?

well that assumes you can "not leave" your home for weeks

Edited March 8, 2020 by ArHu3

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, ArHu3 said:

well that assumes you can "not leave" your home

If you can afford to travel god knows how many miles on trains, planes etc to escape, then how can you not afford food to last a month or 2.

[Spikecollie]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Just come back from lunch with friends in Pau and the subject of panic buying came up.

I’ve not seen much of that here but apparently French tv aired a special programme earlier in the week about the coronavirus .

The next day in the Carrefour apparently was like Christmas Eve . So just shows the power of the media .

Apparantly the Restos du Coeur collection was badly affected at the weekend as people were buying up the very things they need like rice and pasta and even taking it from designated trollies. I wish the media would act more responsibly.

The numbers are pretty horrible today...

[ArHu3]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If you can afford to travel god knows how many miles on trains, planes etc to escape, then how can you not afford food to last a month or 2.

suppose you are an at risk person, you run the risk that one of the delivery people is infected, or your groceries are whereas in a virus free zone that risk is 0

[nick sussex]

Not sure if the updated French numbers have been posted yet .

As of 3pm today .

1,126 confirmed cases .

[Bristawl Si]

Approx 200,000 people will descend on Cheltenham this week. The bars, restaurants, clubs will be packed to the rafters. The course itself will have 50,000 punters each day from Tuesday to Friday. 

[Zak M]

 

[The PIT]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Approx 200,000 people will descend on Cheltenham this week. The bars, restaurants, clubs will be packed to the rafters. The course itself will have 50,000 punters each day from Tuesday to Friday. 

Needs cancelling doesn't it.

[Bristawl Si]

3 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Needs cancelling doesn't it.

Hope not; if you cancel Cheltenham, you cancel every sporting event, incl PL. Sky will do everything they can to plead footie isnt cancelled.

Plus, how many people travel the tube everyday? Do you shut down the tube? I know President Khan thinks it safe, but really?!

Edited March 8, 2020 by Bristle boy

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

suppose you are an at risk person, you run the risk that one of the delivery people is infected, or your groceries are whereas in a virus free zone that risk is 0

1. there isn't a place anywhere near Italy that is virus Free, and if half the population of Italy heads for that place then it soon wont be will it, as the people who you are trying to escape from are coming with you!

2. If you only eat cooked food then you are risk free - as long as you wash hands after touching the packaging, >27c it is difficult for the virus to survive, so sure as hell it won't survive at 180c in the Oven.

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Needs cancelling doesn't it.

Won’t happen . Too much money involved !

Lets hope it doesn’t turn into another Alsace religious festival disaster which is now dropping new French cases into areas that didn’t have any before .

[DAVID SNOW]

18 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Bit harsh to blame people in a complete state of panic. The blame lies with the authorities who gave everyone warning of when the lockdown starts instead of implementing it immediately.

Agreed, some find it so easy to pass judgement on others.

[Ryukai]

38 minutes ago, Donegal said:

I think 5M fled Wuhan before lock down. Anyway it's so dumb. All packed in a train, bound to be some who have it. Just transporting it to a different region. 

And this is exactly how plagues used to spread... one person in a village dies from it, then everyone starts to flee from that village to surrounding villages that are 'clean' (because who wants to be stuck in a plague village) and end up spreading it to a new place  

They shouldn't have announced the lockdown until it was ready to be instantly applied.  Yes, 'clean' people in the areas would complain about being locked in with the 'plague carriers' but it'd stop them from spreading it further  

Edited March 8, 2020 by Ryukai

[kold weather]

23 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s not a case of building hospitals but doing everything to slow the spread so that the NHS isn’t overwhelmed .

As soon as that happens your fatality rates go up . The 0.1 flu rate is because that’s spread over quite a few months .

A sudden surge of cases is what causes the problem . I think the UK still has a bit of time to play with .

France is different especially as there are very large clusters in specific regions . Macron should be bringing in severe restrictions now .

Based on the progress in both France/Germany and Italy, I'd say we probably only have 7-10 days until we probably need to bring in some pretty draconian measures as well. We may have a slightly slower rate of infection purely due to being an island, but I don't think it will buy us that much time. Uk likely to be at a 1000 cases IMO by Friday/Saturday.

Cheltenham is a tricky one, I'd probably operate a harsh policy that if you look ill/have a temperature, your not coming in. It may not totally reduce the risk but should help somewhat. Then I think once we are into the 0000s of cases, then bring in bans, IMO that happens at the end of this week.

Edited March 8, 2020 by kold weather

[Zak M]

This is just ridiculous.

What’s wrong with young and healthy people.

Just shows how corrupt the US is.

 

[swebby]

18 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Now I'm more interested in the other two, and also the fact that most, but not all, had other conditions. 

In terms of other conditions, i think it has been noted that the immune system of people over 80 not dealing well with Covid-19.

Like you - it's the two under 60 that i'm curious about. The likelihood is co-morbities, just because it is such a small number.

[Derecho]

Some pretty startling numbers from Italy there. I think there are a very large number of cases that haven't been accounted for there as mentioned earlier. Italy should have done these measures 3 weeks earlier.