Novel Coronavirus – China

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Higher percentage of people with lung disease and heart disease in Italy - we don't know what % of deaths had those underlying issues also

For sure, and we know that Italy has got an older demographic, however that is quite a drastic difference from the mean cases-hospitalization rates.

I think if I was the UK govt I'd be seriously considering banning large scale social gatherings now, how extreme that ban should go is something to debate but it seems given the trends seen first in Italy, and now to a lesser extent in Germany and France, it would be a good idea to try and get ahead of the curve before it starts to run away from us like it has in Italy.

Total deaths in Italy now upto 366, starting to race up like it did in Wuhan.

Edited March 8, 2020 by kold weather

[cyclonic happiness]

12 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Over 50% hospitalised. What the hell is going on there.

probably the true nature of this virus, that the chinese have lied to us about for months

[Summer Sun]

Breaking: Italy reports 1,492 new cases and 133 new deaths

Total 7,375 and 366 deaths

[kold weather]

Italy total numbers now upto 7375, another record rise for the country (just shy of 1500 new cases).

Remember, 10 days ago Italy had 132 cases...less than we have now...

[Snowy L]

4 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

probably the true nature of this virus, that the chinese have lied to us about for months

That doesn't explain Germany, South Korea, or the Diamond Princess though, who all have death rates below 1%. Personally I think Italy have missed thousands of cases 

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

That doesn't explain Germany, South Korea, or the Diamond Princess though, who all have death rates below 1%. Personally I think Italy have missed thousands of cases 

Its either that or there is two strains out there, something that no one really seems to agree about.

[nick sussex]

Just come back from lunch with friends in Pau and the subject of panic buying came up.

I’ve not seen much of that here but apparently French tv aired a special programme earlier in the week about the coronavirus .

The next day in the Carrefour apparently was like Christmas Eve . So just shows the power of the media .

[Guest Delete Me]

Problem for Italy is they can't just quarantine whole regions easily, atleast with Wuhan CCP were able to blockade all roads in/out of the city and completely isolate people.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Donegal said:

 

Underlying conditions alone wouldn’t account for the fatality rate . This is I think down to the over whelmed health service . People that might have survived if the system wasn’t under so much strain are now dying .

Other European countries need to see what’s going on in northern Italy and realize that a failure to act now would be unforgivable.

Theres no excuse for countries that have so far been spared that tragic loss of life to sit there hoping the northern Italy situation is just down to some weird anomaly.

[Zak M]

WOW.

 

[Guest Delete Me]

10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Its either that or there is two strains out there, something that no one really seems to agree about.

There are two strains unfortunately, the aggressive more virulent strain China managed to contain quite well and then a mutation occurred.

[Zak M]

 

[kold weather]

German health minister is saying they should ban events with over 1000 people. I have to think the UK would be wise in following suit given trends seen throughout Europe recently.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Problem for Italy is they can't just quarantine whole regions easily, atleast with Wuhan CCP were able to blockade all roads in/out of the city and completely isolate people.

And anyway will people just escape over the border into surrounding countries, not much point in doing so into France because with their stats they will be soon puting restrictions in place but they could sneak into slovenia, doubt they would have enough manpower to man the borders.

[Guest Delete Me]

Italians fleeing quarantine by catching the last trains out of the Lombardy region.

This is scarily like Wuhan

[ArHu3]

26 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

probably the true nature of this virus, that the chinese have lied to us about for months

or having a health care system where doctors are rewarded for hospitalizations (i really don't but i don't doubt that this, or the exact opposite, could be involved explaining the difference between countries)

[Guest Delete Me]

Yep was circa 5 to 6 million before the complete shutdown, and as you say this escape by Italians will only further spread.

[ArHu3]

Just now, Donegal said:

I think 5M fled Wuhan before lock down. Anyway it's so dumb. All packed in a train, bound to be some who have it. Just transporting it to a different region. 

dumb for the other people for the people fleeing it's a no brainer. Flee and not get infected or flee and infect others, you can't lose really

[nick sussex]

Whoever leaked the info of the quarantine in northern Italy should be ashamed .

They’ve effectively given the virus a huge boost in the country . Utterly despicable .

[fujita5]

I guess if you're not from the region and you hear it's about to be locked down, you do whatever you can to get home, regardless of the consequences to others....

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Underlying conditions alone wouldn’t account for the fatality rate . This is I think down to the over whelmed health service . People that might have survived if the system wasn’t under so much strain are now dying .

Other European countries need to see what’s going on in northern Italy and realize that a failure to act now would be unforgivable.

Theres no excuse for countries that have so far been spared that tragic loss of life to sit there hoping the northern Italy situation is just down to some weird anomaly.

Problem is apart from travel restrictions what can you do, the Heatlh service cannot just suddenly build 20 new hospitals in one week, it takes donkeys years to get 10's of thousands of intensive care beds up and running.

[Gael_Force]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Underlying conditions alone wouldn’t account for the fatality rate . This is I think down to the over whelmed health service . People that might have survived if the system wasn’t under so much strain are now dying .

Very sobering article in Corriere. They expect to have 3000 ICU patients by late March .. maybe there sooner. They might find beds and retired volunteers but I wonder if they have anywhere near enough ventilators for all those people.

Quote

The picture is of such gravity as to require an increase in resuscitation places up to ten times the current availability. The number of hospitalized persons expected on March 26 is 18 thousand Lombard patients, of which between 2,700 and 3,200 will require hospitalization in intensive care. Today there are already over a thousand patients between those in resuscitation and those who risk getting worse from one minute to the next. We monitor the situation 24 hours a day

 

Terapie intensive per coronavirus: allestite anche nei corridoi - Corriere.it

WWW.CORRIERE.IT

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L’allarme del coordinatore dell’Unità di crisi della Regione Lombardia Antonio Pesenti: «Il 26 marzo in lombardia avremo 18 mila malati, 3 mila avranno bisogno di...

 

[ArHu3]

3 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

I guess if you're not from the region and you hear it's about to be locked down, you do whatever you can to get home, regardless of the consequences to others....

like i said it's a no brainer, if you are not infected you have less chance of being infected yourself, if you are though luck for others

[Azazel]

First confirmed case here in Andover. It begins.

[The PIT]

How come no deaths in Germany or are they assigning them to other causes ?