Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[Mike Poole]

GFS pub run T144 v 12z T150 and UKMO T144:

An improvement is the 18z cuts off the ‘high’ in Greenland whereas the 12z didn’t.  UKMO did.  Looks more likely to link with the arctic high to me, well we’ll know in a quarter of an hour or so, I guess.  I wonder if that low that people are worried about will look the same shape in 6 days time, doubt it.  

Edit, all got interesting T168:

Edited December 9, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Weathizard]

I’d be more than happy if we can get this day 7 chart to t0, loaded with potential and a highly unusual December chart

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Loving the shape and angle of movement on this LP at t216.  Heights rising behind off Eastern Seaboard towards Greenland.

 

and it goes on to be a stormer.  The same timeframe for incredible charts is getting targeted here on the models....not getting put back...just before Christmas and Christmas week landing zone.  Keep it coming ...keep it coming...please....we’ve earned it this year
 

BFTP

Edited December 9, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Mike Poole]

Up she goes, T246:

[joggs]

1 hour ago, Scott Ingham said:

We can see on the ECM weeklies from week 2 to 3 signs of lowering pressure into southern Europe and a retrograde signal from Scandinavia into Greenland. All is still well.

I read a couple of pages ago heights in eu were on the rise. Or is this just one run/set?

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, joggs said:

I read a couple of pages ago heights in eu were on the rise. Or is this just one run/set?

One run and set mate its a watching game at the minute. We're talking about 2 weeks+ away so just follow the means/clusters/trends 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, joggs said:

I read a couple of pages ago heights in eu were on the rise. Or is this just one run/set?

That chart is 14/21 days .....e euro heights rising 8/12 day period 

Edited December 9, 2020 by bluearmy

[Cheshire Freeze]

lovely jubbly

[Matt H]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Up she goes, T246:

The pub is open.

[Matt H]

Absolutely beautiful, cold uppers flooding in just in time for the Christmas period.

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

Absolutely beautiful, cold uppers flooding in just in time for the Christmas period.

Quite, hello Winter & Merry Christmas! 

[Mike Poole]

Wowsers, pub run T306:

The whole freezing damn lot could swirl around that block!

Edited December 9, 2020 by Mike Poole

[alexisj9]

37 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS pub run T144 v 12z T150 and UKMO T144:

An improvement is the 18z cuts off the ‘high’ in Greenland whereas the 12z didn’t.  UKMO did.  Looks more likely to link with the arctic high to me, well we’ll know in a quarter of an hour or so, I guess.  I wonder if that low that people are worried about will look the same shape in 6 days time, doubt it.  

Edit, all got interesting T168:

Finally, now we need the other models to do this too please.

[Valleyboy]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Wowsers, pub run T306:

The whole freezing damn lot could swirl around that block!

That would bring rather cold, dry weather.  Need more of an easterly feed, which could follow down the line.

[Eskimo]

All this blocking and we end up with a SW feed  

[Mr Brown]

The level and severity of cold that could be drawn in from Scandinavia once the artic high establishes itself could be quite something. Sub -20C 850s are uppers many of us would have never seen before in our lifetimes. 
 

There is a real prospect of extreme cold...

[bluearmy]

Messy approaching end week 2 on this run .... verification is generally less messy than that ...... next !

[Johnp]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Wowsers, pub run T306:

The whole freezing damn lot could swirl around that block!

Or in this case south westerlies within 42 hours.

Edited December 9, 2020 by Johnp

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Eskimo said:

All this blocking and we end up with a SW feed  

You have to laugh really!! Eye watering Synoptics and somehow we get a warm waft from the Canary Islands it will change again in the morning though. We would be so unlucky not to get a cold spell from what is on offer after day 10..

[bluearmy]

Just now, Mr Brown said:

The level and severity of cold that could be drawn in from Scandinavia once the artic high establishes itself could be quite something. Sub -20C 850s are uppers many of us would have never seen before in our lifetimes. 
 

There is a real prospect of extreme cold...

They wouldn’t make it across the North Sea ...That depth of cold with the sst’s we have would probably throw up a shortwave to cut the flow off .....mind you, we did keep the cold pool intact with the BFTE three years ago .....but that was with much lower sst’s as late in the season .....

[Johnp]

Not often you see sub -32c uppers on a chart

[Skullzrulerz]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

All this blocking and we end up with a SW feed  

Looks like someone is still wishing for a heatwave for Christmas then it's probably more likely anyway 

[NeilN]

Each run is different and with anomalies. 

Considering how bizzare this year has been, I am not ruling out any prospect of a cold winter. Perhaps the holy trinity of winters could see a new challenger? Remember December is not realiable. 

[Tom Jarvis]

Rolf the gfs just doesn't have a clue what to do with energy going under a block. That dartboard low will never happen. But what we can take from tonight’s gfs is that for once we could have some proper cold weather for Christmas. 

[Mike Poole]

14 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Or in this case south westerlies within 42 hours.

I am not looking at the prospects from a UK perspective at the moment, the Uk is detail, the NH synoptics on this run are great, impact for our neck of the woods is for nearer the time.  We will worry about them later, because the detail that is showing on these models will be wrong at that timescale.  Actually the macro scale thing will be fairly wrong too, but it is suggesting big possibilities now...we will see...

Edited December 9, 2020 by Mike Poole