Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

A bit confused here with some saying it's bad and some saying it's good in regards to the ECM run?

I still think we are going to get a halfway house between the two 

There was talk of it collapsing at 168 which I too was expecting.. however at 216 the high kind of flopped towards scandi..

nope I was wrong it did fall in over us at 240..

Edited December 16, 2020 by TSNWK

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

ECM looking poor at t+192 with the pattern swiftly collapsing East.

Hopefully an outlier.

 

 

I think the standing Atlantic ridge ship has sailed; the Pacific wave breaks and releases energy east so not sure if that Atlantic ridge would ever hold? We are moving on to see what happens afterwards before the next upstream amplification, which gfs has post-d10? If we can keep a good synoptic in place before the next meridional flow, then game on for a longer cold period as per 12z gfs.

ecm d9 (flat upstream): 

gfs d12 (second wave upstream): 

[alexisj9]

The USA low has to stay south, if it winds up and goes through the Midlands like in this ECM, it's not what we want at all.

[ICE COLD]

Alllll I wish it went past day 10 big northerly lining up

[frosty ground]

would the high ridge north after this? 

[nick sussex]

A very dubious evolution upstream from the ECM .

The shortwave which developed in previous runs which engages the PV chunk pulling that nw remains a shallow feature even with an influx of warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico meeting frigid Arctic Air .

You’d normally expect to see that deepen so I’m not buying this evolution . One for the cat litter tray ! 

[weirpig]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Alllll I wish it went past day 10 big northerly lining up

Yep looks a repeat after day 10   second bite of the cherry? 

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

The USA low has to stay south, if it winds up and goes through the Midlands like in this ECM, it's not what we want at all.

Unless of course it's what triggers an easterly, rather than mid Atlantic ridge, I am lost lol.

[Ice Day]

Not an awful ECM, gets some cold in for a few days but looks dry.  Then at the end of the run it looks like another burst of Atlantic amplification on the way at 240 (isn't there always!!!), so that theme continues if nothing else:

Very solid set of GEFS this afternoon.   Based on this, the cold is in from 23 December right out until New Years Day.

Not too bad at all.

[Man With Beard]

ECM tonight not synoptically quite what coldies are looking for, but it does have snow showers down the east coast on Christmas Eve, and there's a few other snow showers around. Wouldn't be a surprise if a little feature tracks down the country around 24th/25th, though not modelled at present. Long term cold prospects a bit shaky on this run though.

[IDO]

The ecm d10 similar to gfs d10 from the 06z run:

gfs>>ecm>>

The gfs 06z eventually came good, but the ecm seems more likely to get to further cold quicker? I suspect that we have several options on the table and the models need a bit more time to get a fix.

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

A bit confused here with some saying it's bad and some saying it's good in regards to the ECM run?

I still think we are going to get a halfway house between the two 

You clearly enjoy weather but feel for you because it would seem you are reliant on commentary to whether a particular run is good or not. You also are keen to be involved because you comment I what you think might happen.

The majority on here will have been in your position and it’s frustrating at best. Much more enjoyable to have some understanding on what charts are showing and what may happen. Head to various learning places on this site look at archive charts etc. PM some of the more established people on here for help and understanding. It really is worth the time and effort.  

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A very dubious evolution upstream from the ECM .

The shortwave which developed in previous runs which engages the PV chunk pulling that nw remains a shallow feature even with an influx of warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico meeting frigid Arctic Air .

You’d normally expect to see that deepen so I’m not buying this evolution . One for the cat litter tray ! 

Yep. Who allowed Darren Bett to grab control of the ecm tonight ?

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Not an awful ECM, gets some cold in for a few days but looks dry.  Then at the end of the run it looks like another burst of Atlantic amplification on the way at 240 (isn't there always!!!), so that theme continues if nothing else:

Very solid set of GEFS this afternoon.   Based on this, the cold is in from 23 December right out until New Years Day.

Not too bad at all.

I can't see another burst of atlantic amplification after that chart. The low coming off north eastern Canada will flatten any attempt. 

[mountain shadow]

ECM flies on the face of the Northerly blocking we've seen on the ens and means.

A couple of days of cooler temps then a return to Westerlies. 

No thanks.

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I can't see another burst of atlantic amplification after that chart. The low coming off north eastern Canada will flatten any attempt. 

Really ? Run it through and there definitely looks to be another burst of amplification. High being sucked towards Greenland. 

[Snowman.]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I can't see another burst of atlantic amplification after that chart. The low coming off north eastern Canada will flatten any attempt. 

Lets hope that its overblow the westerly influence there. More amplfication at D10 would lead to good 2nd bite. 

[Anthony Burden]

Not a bad run by ecm the high flattening but still giving some cold air with an easterly flow at 240 hrs

at least to most of England.lows tracking north of Iceland seems feasible to me but at 240 hrs that

of cause can change,pressure remaining high from 192 hrs to end of run as met 30day seems to

feel settled weather to last at least to the end of December.

[LRD]

Well, not spectacular from the ECM. The most encouraging thing is that high pressure is kept away from Europe and confined to the north Atlantic but the last frame is uninspiring. I can't see a ridge north/NW from there. Perhaps it could be pulled NE. Not that it'll turn out like that anyway.

 

 

[Chesil View]

The ecm up to its usual trick again of  churning out an op run from the cold end (00z) of the pack and  immediately picking an op run from the warm end of the pack. (12z) It’s just so predictable. Seen it so many times. 

[Daniel*]

 

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

ECM flies on the face of the Northerly blocking we've seen on the ens and means.

A couple of days of cooler temps then a return to Westerlies. 

No thanks.

It’s totally in line with what we’ve been seeing no significant long-standing block has been presented on means the ridge has always looked most likely a toppler, the ECM 12z is more progressive than 00z mean. 

The problem is on here I feel some only look at the operationals and they wonder that something has changed when really it hasn’t at all.

.

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

The ecm up to its usual trick again of  churning out an op run from the cold end (00z) of the pack and  immediately picking an op run from the warm end of the pack. (12z) It’s just so predictable. Seen it so many times. 

It's not even that warm really, certainly in England and Wales

But, yeah, a bit underwhelming

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

 

It’s totally in line with what we’ve been seeing no significant long-standing block has been presented on means the ridge has always looked most likely a toppler, the ECM 12z is more progressive than 00z mean. 

The problem is on here I feel some only look at the operationals and they wonder that something has changed when really it hasn’t at all.

.

I agree but let's see what the 12z mean says

Edited December 16, 2020 by LRD

[Battleground Snow]

Hi All,

First post from a long time lurker....

Some fantastic discussion over the years both in summer and winter.

I am a bit OCD when extremes are shown, ( checking model output when supposed to be at work)

Typical day in winter.

Check mjo plots at 230

Fire up meteociel to check the icon at 3

Flick into wetterzentrale for ukmo at 4

Then onto Gfs and gem

Then GFS ensembles

Then ECM and ECM mean 

Then 18z GFS before bed

Anyway.. thank you all for time you take out of your day to help people understand complex meteorology.

Here is my first charts from the delayed 12z icon!

 

 

 

 

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

 

It’s totally in line with what we’ve been seeing no significant long-standing block has been presented on means the ridge has always looked most likely a toppler, the ECM 12z is more progressive than 00z mean. 

The problem is on here I feel some only look at the operationals and they wonder that something has changed when really it hasn’t at all.

.

I disagree. They've not all been topplers.