Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[Day 10]

Nope not quite, the UK force field roars into action once more.

I'm sure we'll get there though.

Edited December 22, 2020 by Day 10

[TSNWK]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gota say didnt see that coming on 216 hours!!hopefully a mild outlier and gone on the 12z!!

Agreed. It was looking really more promising from around 192 to 240.. then it all kind came to a halt and we start bringing in milder uppers..

but I take positives on the decent upgrades up to 240 both Synoptics i thought and definitely on uppers.. much rather have the upgrades near term and downgrades in FI I say

Edited December 22, 2020 by TSNWK

[Weathizard]

Whilst you can understand the frustration about the lack of cold on the first attempt, we’ve seen many times over the years a U.K. cold spell and particularly building pressure northwards can often take a couple of tries before it delivers the goods.

The models normally model Atlantic amplification and ridges fairly well within 8 day range, so I’m full of hope that even if our first attempt doesn’t deliver, the NH pattern is primed for more attempts.

At least we have a ticket, historically December into January is when the vortex is usually toying with us.

[Allseasons-Si]

Oh! my...

chart of the day that is.

[ALL ABOARD]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Oh! my...

chart of the day that is.

Now if we get a direct hit off that northerly then.....

Youll be skating to France. 

[sheikhy]

And then t300 comes and look at the wall of cold coming in from the north!!gota laugh at the gfs

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Oh! my...

chart of the day that is.

But the uppers AS The uppers.. picks up jacket, makes a quick exit from thread;)

Edited December 22, 2020 by TSNWK

[Methuselah]

It's nice to see deep cold setting in 'up there'... all steps in in the right direction?

    

Late December 1978 redux... perhaps?

[Guest]

GFS 06z FI is tantalisingly close to something special.

[ICE COLD]

Even with slightly warmer uppers at ground level temps are still pretty cold  

[danm]

45 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

it's looking increasing like as typical late December affair,

Surely the synoptic pattern in our part of the NH is modelled to be anything but a typical late December affair? Still some way to go before/if this synoptic pattern really delivers for us in the UK, but the shredding of the PV and increasing amplification rolls the dice far more in our favour than would be the case with typical late December synoptics. 
 

If people are desperately seeking a white out in the next 5-7 days they’ll probably be disappointed, but as boring as it is to say, it’s the bigger picture that should be getting people tentatively excited. This pattern looks set to persist and possibly even get better if we see a SSW. Nothing is a guarantee, but with this unfolding synoptic pattern our chances of tapping into something much colder and snowy dramatically increases. Small shifts is all it would take to put us firmly in the game.

Edited December 22, 2020 by danm

[ICE COLD]

Lol -7 in Scotland and +12 in @knockerland

[kold weather]

So what to say about that 06z so far.

Still good snow chances between 27-30th. The uppers really aren't all that impressive and for lower ground its real marginal, still we are ib the game.

Beyond that and the 06z GFS is good if you like really cold rain at lower levels with hill snow in the new year period in most of England/Wales. Scotland looks better as its always going to be closer to the cold air and so decent chances of snow up here even to lower levels.

Its not bad run overall, but with such a cracking set-up aloft it'd probably rank close to what a worst case scenario would be in this type of set-up (which goes to show how good the potential is.) May still get there later in January as well...

Edited December 22, 2020 by kold weather

[SMU]

The risk with the GFS solution whilst visually appealing is that the West based NAO becomes evident which is about the worst case scenario for a best case synoptics- That would be a real kick in the teeth...

[kold weather]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

The risk with the GFS solution whilst visually appealing is that the West based NAO becomes evident which is about the worst case scenario for a best case synoptics- That would be a real kick in the teeth...

Literally came up with the same conclusion a moment before youy Steve.

Its a classic case that whilst looking good the 06z GFS probably gives a large chunk of the country flooding, rather than snow outside of perhaps a brief window around the 28-29th.

the upper high is quite small so we really do need it set-up closer to Iceland region as its not once of those very large upper high cores.

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Literally came up with the same conclusion a moment before youy Steve.

Its a classic case that whilst looking good the 06z GFS probably gives a large chunk of the country flooding, rather than snow outside of perhaps a brief window around the 28-29th.

the upper high is quite small so we really do need it set-up closer to Iceland region as its not once of those very large upper high cores.

At least we are looking at polishing some gold rather than a turd.

Hopefully we will see upgrades in our favour.

[NorthernRab]

JFF This is quite an interesting chart with a 24°C difference between Cornwall and the Great Glen at -14°.

 

 

[Paul_1978]

34 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Its interesting , these synoptic charts are the most interesting for a weather enthusiast like myself.

Totally agree Rob, this is exactly the point that a lot of posters are missing. Sure, many of us want to see snow - and decent snow at that - but we do get a lot of people on here stirring repeatedly. However I am sure for 95% of us we are just in awe of the synoptics which are most unusual, and it's certainly great to watch it unfold, regardless of whether we are going to be knee deep in the white stuff.

[Shere Khan]

Bags of potential for the start of jan for us coldies. The up and coming cool spell for the  Xmas period simply doesn’t have the right setup with regards to the deep cold pool of air we need to lock us in the fridge. A major tease more many of us.
It’s a case of cold but not cold enough.

At least the Atlantic heater is out of action for the foreseeable future, although I am first to agree we could be faced with a much more depressing scenario than we currently have.

 

[sheikhy]

I think steve is just holding his excitement back right now!!we will get that positive steve back in the next day or so i reckon!!!

[captaincroc]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

Totally agree Rob, this is exactly the point that a lot of posters are missing. Sure, many of us want to see snow - and decent snow at that - but we do get a lot of people on here stirring repeatedly. However I am sure for 95% of us we are just in awe of the synoptics which are most unusual, and it's certainly great to watch it unfold, regardless of whether we are going to be knee deep in the white stuff.

I agree. Yes, I would love 2 ft of powder snow and ice days but if I forever wait for that then it could be a long damn wait! .  After the past few years of 'meh' I am glad there is at least some scope for some fun and games the next week or two at least.  

[Drifter]

Why are people talking as if the 6z of all runs is set in stone?

If you don’t like what it’s showing in FI, you’ve only got to wait another 6 hours. 

[Battleground Snow]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I think steve is just holding his excitement back right now!!we will get that positive steve back in the next day or so i reckon!!!

I don't think he's a fan of North Westerlies or northerlies, only easterlies usually does the job for Kent , not bad for us Midland folk though

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I don't think he's a fan of North Westerlies or northerlies, only easterlies usually does the job for Kent , not bad for us Midland folk though

I was actually thinking that as well!its probably cos there is nothing for the south east at the moment!!an sure that will change!!

[Methuselah]

Oh bugger! I guess the Road to Snowmageddon is lined with dog turds?