Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[ianmm94]

Freezing rain could be a real problem, very dangerous if it does happen. I'm surprised there hasn't been a warning for it

[LeeSnowFan]

Reason for update

Start time delayed, with greater emphasis on ice at start of warning period. Southern extent of warning area adjusted. Suggested snow amounts reduced slightly.

[summer blizzard]

Freezing rain is only a risk for the first few hours.

[The PIT]

Unless theres been a change since last time. I've just looked and a no go for snow Wednesday however the issue of freezing rain will be there later on into early Thursday although the threat has generally moved further north. The uppers just don't support Snow for Wednesday. Thursday uppers now slower to come into play so could well need a bit help and get evapourtive cooling. If not then it's a case will prec hang around enough for the cold uppers to come into play. The answer is just but it looks like another case of now casting on the day.

 

[Winter Cold]

31 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Probably not warming up at all. Dew points. 

850s

Temp Oc

Decent then!

Probably just the automated website going too high with temps

[swfc]

Yes looks marginal away from any decent elevation. That said dew points and cooling in heavy precipitation may change that later on Thursday 

[The PIT]

Uppers far to warm

[The PIT]

And a helping hand needed Thursday

 

[Harsh Climate]

I think tomorrow's/ thursday's event will be similar to last friday's except the snow line will be at least 100/200ft higher this time round.. 

So that would be snowline for the most part at around 4/500ft with maybe a light slushy covering, 700ft+ for a covering and 900ft+ for the big snow. That's just my estimates for the most part but I think later thursday  the snow line will drop before before it all clears away giving perhaps lower levels a light covering..

[Guest]

Suggests other factors in play, not just uppers?

[Harsh Climate]

12 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

Suggests other factors in play, not just uppers?

Even though it's against what I think will happen (check my post above.)

Had a quick look and factors that COULD help snow chances to low levels are:

1.Low dew points, check out dew points 12noon on wednesday

2.A hard frost is expected in places tonight, if we can get lower than say the -2c forecast for otley, hit -4... that could have a positive impact. Also as cloud moves in ahead of the front that could maybe lock in the cold overnight temparatures for longer?

3.Evaporative cooling, keep an eye out for heavy bursts of precipitation and little wind.

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[Paul]

The UKV 9z is a lot less keen on snow than the 6z was. We'll see if the upcoming runs follow on from that or go back to something snowier again. 

[Cheese Rice]

I reckon it'll be 2-5cm with localised 5-10cm, both on ground above 150m. Maybe the odd transient covering to low ground. 

The real accumulation likely above 300m which cuts out urban areas and will likely result in no upgrades to the warning, ie no amber warning. 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Cheese Rice

[joggs]

I'm more interested in Thursday tbh than tomorrow. We'll see. 

[joggs]

Well, a nice upgrade on the mo medium musings.

[winterof79]

1 hour ago, Paul said:

The UKV 9z is a lot less keen on snow than the 6z was. We'll see if the upcoming runs follow on from that or go back to something snowier again. 

Is that for both days Paul, or just wednesday

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Looking at the latest model runs its looking almost certainly like a rain fest to low ground tomorrow.

Tomorrow night into Thursday however and things may turn more favourable for a snowy surprise in our region ❄

[winterof79]

Hard frost overnight. Rain, sleet and snow arriving through Wednesday.

This Evening and Tonight:

Cold and crisp, with a widespread hard frost, locally severe near snowfields. Mainly dry overnight with light winds throughout, although becoming cloudier in the far west towards dawn, with a mix of rain, sleet and snow perhaps greeting daybreak here. Minimum temperature -6 °C.

Wednesday:

Becoming cloudier from the west through the morning, with sleet, snow and perhaps freezing rain spreading eastwards, particularly affecting higher ground, and likely leading to icy surfaces more generally. Maximum temperature 3 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Wintry conditions ending Wednesday gradually easing through Thursday, leaving Friday drier but cold, with a risk of freezing fog forming in light winds. Further rain and snow likely into Saturday.

[Scott Ingham]

2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Unless theres been a change since last time. I've just looked and a no go for snow Wednesday however the issue of freezing rain will be there later on into early Thursday although the threat has generally moved further north. The uppers just don't support Snow for Wednesday. Thursday uppers now slower to come into play so could well need a bit help and get evapourtive cooling. If not then it's a case will prec hang around enough for the cold uppers to come into play. The answer is just but it looks like another case of now casting on the day.

 

Was discussing this with kasim we only really need uppers of -0.5 in this scenario. Snow is very complicated but this snow is brought about by home grown cold and evaporative cooling. Rainfall intensity is whats key. Once it gets passed a certain tipping point well hit all snow

[Scott Ingham]

2 hours ago, The PIT said:

And a helping hand needed Thursday

 

These are perfect.

Under 0.5 degrees.

This isnt your regular snowfall if i get the time ill explain why but uppers of -0.5 are fine. Snowfalk is fascinating

[Scott Ingham]

2 hours ago, Harsh Climate said:

Even though it's against what I think will happen (check my post above.)

Had a quick look and factors that COULD help snow chances to low levels are:

1.Low dew points, check out dew points 12noon on wednesday

2.A hard frost is expected in places tonight, if we can get lower than say the -2c forecast for otley, hit -4... that could have a positive impact. Also as cloud moves in ahead of the front that could maybe lock in the cold overnight temparatures for longer?

3.Evaporative cooling, keep an eye out for heavy bursts of precipitation and little wind.

 

Yes. Chuck upper temps in the bin its these factors at play

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

The local automated forecast from the Met Office has me down for 24 hours continual heavy rain and a temperature of 2c from tomorrow lunchtime until Thursday lunchtime

[winterof79]

6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yes. Chuck upper temps in the bin its these factors at play

I'm happy to sit back now pal and let this play out. Enjoy. 

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, winterof79 said:

I'm happy to sit back now pal and let this play out. Enjoy. 

Its a nowcast on rainfall intensity. The met have extended south. Thats a mini upgrade. Well know more tomorrow morning

[winterof79]

9 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its a nowcast on rainfall intensity. The met have extended south. Thats a mini upgrade. Well know more tomorrow morning

Was talking more of a locked in period of cold starting Thursday bud. Its sorted in my eyes and I am not being swayed by the doom merchants over in the mod thread. 

Sometimes you just know when you've seen all the evidence. Those who wish to fret  come back next week and if it's not happened I'll gladly eat humble pie. Cheers J