Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Harsh Climate]

I think it's safe to say you can take most predicted snow charts with a pinch of salt even just a few hours before the event, after friday's performance! 

Most precip charts had the snow band pushing into south yorkshire, lancashire and north midlands early afternoon, in reality it never left north and west yorkshire. Also it lasted hours longer than forecast and only very slowly fizzled away. Precip charts including the met offices where laughably way off the mark  

Shows nowcasting will always be king.

[Scott Ingham]

This is accumaltions at 8pm thursday

Sorry but i really think this is underplayed

If we listened before to what some thought we would have had a dusting last week and some got 20cm of snow at 40m above sea level

Edited January 12, 2021 by Scott Ingham

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I think it's safe to say you can take most predicted snow charts with a pinch of salt even just a few hours before the event, after friday's performance! 

Most precip charts had the snow band pushing into south yorkshire, lancashire and north midlands early afternoon, in reality it never left north and west yorkshire. Also it lasted hours longer than forecast and only very slowly fizzled away. Precip charts including the met offices where laughably way off the mark  

Shows nowcasting will always be king.

I agree but saying high ground only os equally daft it could go either way and chances of 10cm are way higher this time to last week

[Paul]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah okay thanks

Have you viewed the update 12z arpege?

Ive posted 12 while 5 underneath.

Its a big upgrade.

But you show one model on hills and o show one model akin to the met warning which shows how knife edge it is

The met warning really is quite focused on the higher ground in the main:

Quote

An area of rain pushing north-eastwards is expected to turn snow in places as it encounters colder air across Scotland and parts of northern England. At first the main hazard may be of rain falling onto frozen surfaces leading to ice, especially on higher level routes. However snow becomes more likely later Wednesday and at least for a time on Thursday. Heavier snowfall is more likely above 100 m in Scotland and above 200 m in England, where 5-10 cm of snow may accumulate, possibly 20 cm on highest routes. At lower levels, 2 - 5 cm of snow may accumulate in places, but the situation remains finely balanced, with the possibility that most lower-lying areas in northern England see rain or sleet rather than snow.

In terms of the Arpege, it's not really a high res model (approx 11km), so it's not really one for deciphering high/low ground snow tbh. But, it's a marginal situation, is going to be dependent on several factors and may be quite different in one location 5 miles down the road from another - a heavier period of precip is all it could take. So I'd not rule anything out, but I'd also not be getting super excited for lower levels either. 

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

This is accumaltions at 8pm thursday

Sorry but i really think this is underplayed

I bet anyone my right testacle that that doesn't come off for ground below 250m  

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, Paul said:

The met warning really is quite focused on the higher ground in the main:

In terms of the Arpege, it's not really a high res model (approx 11km), so it's not really one for deciphering high/low ground snow tbh. But, it's a marginal situation, is going to be dependent on several factors and may be quite different in one location 5 miles down the road from another - a heavier period of precip is all it could take. So I'd not rule anything out, but I'd also not be getting super excited for lower levels either. 

Possibility that. So it could go either way. Its 50/50 to lower ground i feel.

Well see come the day.

They had a dusting last week and 10-20cm was hit quite widely last week

2-5cm is enough btw to get me excited and probably a few of us in the region as well

Deffo not expecting a pasting of 10-20cm thats certainly not being said.

But to say this is a damp squib over 200metres event.

I definitely feel its loads more than that

Edited January 12, 2021 by Scott Ingham

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I bet anyone my right testacle that that doesn't come off for ground below 250m  

I wager someone below 100metres hits 5cm?

£50 to charity?

[Harsh Climate]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

I wager someone below 100metres hits 5cm?

£50 to charity?

I'd wager that two so no deal lol. But I don't think that 5cm will be as widespread as that chart shows. Yeah someone low down could get heavy precipitation at the optimal time later thursday and get a good couple inches  but I wouldn't fancy having to pick that location out of thin air..

 

 

[Scott Ingham]

10 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I think it's safe to say you can take most predicted snow charts with a pinch of salt even just a few hours before the event, after friday's performance! 

Most precip charts had the snow band pushing into south yorkshire, lancashire and north midlands early afternoon, in reality it never left north and west yorkshire. Also it lasted hours longer than forecast and only very slowly fizzled away. Precip charts including the met offices where laughably way off the mark  

Shows nowcasting will always be king.

I bet your pleasently surprised mate

[Craigers]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I wager someone below 100metres hits 5cm?

£50 to charity?

Id say places that did ok with the previous marginal events will be similar tomorrow and Thursday. I've got a feeling the trend could still move the cold further west. Exciting times!

Edited January 12, 2021 by Craigers

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

I bet your pleasently surprised mate

I hope so!

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Harsh Climate said:

I'd wager that two so no deal lol. But I don't think that 5cm will be as widespread as that chart shows. Yeah someone low down could get heavy precipitation at the optimal time later thursday and get a good couple inches  but I wouldn't fancy having to pick that location out of thin air..

 

 

Im not suggesting widespread.

Im not at that at that level of excitement but people shouldnt be thinking high ground only. Id take 5cm n be very happy

[LeeSnowFan]

Just now, Craigers said:

Id say places that did ok with the marginal events will be similar tomorrow and Thursday. I've got a feeling the tend could still move the cold further west. Exciting times!

you think we will see something?

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Craigers said:

Id say places that did ok with the marginal events will be similar tomorrow and Thursday. I've got a feeling the tend could still move the cold further west. Exciting times!

Its not a time to be making forecasts at face value. Some experimce should be factored in warm air always gets pushed back nearer time historically

[Harsh Climate]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Im not suggesting widespread.

Im not at that at that level of excitement but people shouldnt be thinking high ground only. Id take 5cm n be very happy

Yeah I'd be delighted with 5cm, as long as it's not like the slush I got last week, while a few miles away (200ft higher) got 5/6" propper snow 

[Empire Of Snow]

10 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

This is accumaltions at 8pm thursday

Sorry but i really think this is underplayed

If we listened before to what some thought we would have had a dusting last week and some got 20cm of snow at 40m above sea level

If this one verifies, pints on me at Harrogate for all of you when pubs open again! 

[Craigers]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its not a time to be making forecasts at face value. Some experimce should be factored in warm air always gets pushed back nearer time historically

Yes mate and the front could be slower than forecast! Reminds me of a couple of years back on that boxing day when it was high ground only event and snow settled at 40m after evap cooling 

[Cheese Rice]

Just to reiterate this is the met office warning 

 

"Heavier snowfall is more likely above 100 m in Scotland and above 200 m in England, where 5-10 cm of snow may accumulate, possibly 20 cm on highest routes. At lower levels, 2 - 5 cm of snow may accumulate in places, but the situation remains finely balanced, with the possibility that most lower-lying areas in northern England see rain or sleet rather than snow."

 

5-10cm above 200m possible with most lower lying areas seeing rain or sleet.  Perhaps a few cm's to lower levels but that's not low ground that's more 120m+.

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Yeah I'd be delighted with 5cm, as long as it's not like the slush I got last week, while a few miles away (200ft higher) got 5/6" propper snow 

i got none it pushed north into your area so yeah id be very happy!

[Scott Ingham]

5 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

Just to reiterate this is the met office warning 

 

"Heavier snowfall is more likely above 100 m in Scotland and above 200 m in England, where 5-10 cm of snow may accumulate, possibly 20 cm on highest routes. At lower levels, 2 - 5 cm of snow may accumulate in places, but the situation remains finely balanced, with the possibility that most lower-lying areas in northern England see rain or sleet rather than snow."

 

5-10cm above 200m possible with most lower lying areas seeing rain or sleet.  Perhaps a few cm's to lower levels but that's not low ground that's more 120m+.

It doesnt state 120m+ ?????

Im happy to wager the same £50 tp charity somewhere under 100metres sees 5cm?

Edited January 12, 2021 by Scott Ingham

[Cheese Rice]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

It doesnt state 120m+ ?????

Im happy to wager the same £50 tp charity somewhere under 100metres sees 5cm?

The warning states lower levels, relative to 200m so you can decide what constitutes lower levels but it is not low ground ie 0m asl. 

I think your interpreting the warning wrong. 

[winterof79]

10 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

If this one verifies, pints on me at Harrogate for all of you when pubs open again! 

I'm there. 

[LeeSnowFan]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

I'm there. 

diet coke lol im on a diet lol

[Harsh Climate]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

i got none it pushed north into your area so yeah id be very happy!

Yeah I probably was a bit like a spoilt kid  at first I was happy with the 1" wet snow that settled after a morning of rain. But then seeing hours and hours of wet snow not settling anymore that did make me feel a bit sad..  lol..

Your right though should never take it for granted cos some areas will miss out alltogether.

I hope those areas in east yorkshire/lincolnshire finally see some snow by end of thursday, ridiclous how long they have had to wait 

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

The warning states lower levels, relative to 200m so you can decide what constitutes lower levels but it is not low ground ie 0m asl. 

I think your interpreting the warning wrong. 

Lower levels are  below 150 Mt in my book