Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Scott Ingham]

Your talking like you know what the met see as lower ground in terminology if they meant above 120m they would state that like they did the last warning of snow above 100metres.

Until i see a science paper stating it ill class lower ground as lower ground

[Scott Ingham]

10 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Yeah I probably was a bit like a spoilt kid  at first I was happy with the 1" wet snow that settled after a morning of rain. But then seeing hours and hours of wet snow not settling anymore that did make me feel a bit sad..  lol..

Your right though should never take it for granted cos some areas will miss out alltogether.

I hope those areas in east yorkshire/lincolnshire finally see some snow by end of thursday, ridiclous how long they have had to wait 

I do as well! 

I feel sorry for them guys!

[Scott Ingham]

My opinion

Anyone in low ground will see 2-5cm of snow

Anyone above 200cm will get battered

I definitely would not have the mindset of high ground only. This IS a snow event for sure.

Similar to events the past two weeks

A lot would be happy

Lets wait to see what we get

[LeeSnowFan]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

My opinion

Anyone in low ground will see 2-5cm of snow

Anyone above 200cm will get battered

I definitely would not have the mindset of high ground only. This IS a snow event for sure.

Similar to events the past two weeks

A lot would be happy

Lets wait to see what we get

Barnsley for my area is 125asl so even a good 2-3cm I'll be happy

[winterof79]

Laugh if it doesn't get over pennines.... I'll be glued to the radar. If I see reds over to our west we're getting pasted. 

[winterof79]

Pick the bones out of that one for end of week

Scott? 

[Harsh Climate]

Ukmo 12z is a corker!

A repeat snow event saturday/ sunday but less marginal.

Then what's that on the horizon monday? 

[Craigers]

15 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

My opinion

Anyone in low ground will see 2-5cm of snow

Anyone above 200cm will get battered

I definitely would not have the mindset of high ground only. This IS a snow event for sure.

Similar to events the past two weeks

A lot would be happy

Lets wait to see what we get

I love to see the 200cm get battered too

[Scott Ingham]

5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Pick the bones out of that one for end of week

Scott? 

Very complicated!

It looks like leading edge snow turning to rain then turning back to snow with the next cold front. We need to squeeze the warmer air in the middle south if you do someone will be all snow

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Craigers said:

I love to see the 200cm get battered too

Hahahah too late to edit as well!

[Scott Ingham]

I prefer the current model runs btw!

Warm air never gets in

Our southern friends look very knife edge and average but for us this battle could lead to several big snowfall events

We look on the borderline between warm and cold air!

Remember a lot of the comments are imby in the mod thread

I dont care as long as we get battered!

[The PIT]

Horrible run tonight. Rain, Rain and freezing rain. North Yorkshire should see some Snow in the afternoon but down here we will need help with evaporative cooling. Then as the cold uppers dig in the rain runs away. Saturdays someone's stolen the cold uppers. Probably the Spanish again.

The images show the problem.  PIc and Pic 2 too warm uppers. Pic 3 looking good for north Yorkshire south Yorkshire we have "high" temperatures. Pic 4 good the precipitation has mostly legged it by this time. Saturday pic 5 well we had -4C and -5C uppers yesterday.

 

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by The PIT

[LeeSnowFan]

This is why its confusing for some folks! some above saying snow for low levels etc then others just saying rain ?

[The PIT]

5 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

This is why its confusing for some folks! some above saying snow for low levels etc then others just saying rain ?

Just chucked some photo's in as to why. A very good guide is will it snow. A very good guide below. I haven't bothered looking at it as the high uppers give the fat lady the hymn book. Thursday afternoon she can shown the door in North Yorkshire and possibly here in South Yorkshire. Of course things may come more favourable on tomorrows runs.

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by The PIT

[farmans]

6 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Horrible run tonight. Rain, Rain and freezing rain. North Yorkshire should see some Snow in the afternoon but down here we will need help with evaporative cooling. Then as the cold uppers dig in the rain runs away. Saturdays someone's stolen the cold uppers. Probably the Spanish again.

The images show the problem.  PIc and Pic 2 too warm uppers. Pic 3 looking good for north Yorkshire south Yorkshire we have "high" temperatures. Pic 4 good the precipitation has mostly legged it by this time. Saturday pic 5 well we had -4C and -5C uppers yesterday.

 

 

How about the para run PIT? What’s your view on that? It certainly shows much more snow and indeed the GEM? 
I know I may be clutching at straws!

[Scott Ingham]

9 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Horrible run tonight. Rain, Rain and freezing rain. North Yorkshire should see some Snow in the afternoon but down here we will need help with evaporative cooling. Then as the cold uppers dig in the rain runs away. Saturdays someone's stolen the cold uppers. Probably the Spanish again.

The images show the problem.  PIc and Pic 2 too warm uppers. Pic 3 looking good for north Yorkshire south Yorkshire we have "high" temperatures. Pic 4 good the precipitation has mostly legged it by this time. Saturday pic 5 well we had -4C and -5C uppers yesterday.

 

 

Pit the period of snow between 12pm and 6pm the uppers are cold enough and so is the wet bulb.

We need -0.5 uppers and same for the dps as the wet bulb looks fine in this period.

Evaporative cooling will be important we need 1 hour of moderate precipitation to turn rain to snow ans we have 6 hours forecast.

Its a unique situation

That guide doesnt work with embedded cold.

Anyway! When we see snow settling bring up all these parameters and it will show what we needed

@Kasim Awan

Will be interested to hear your thoughts

Edited January 12, 2021 by Scott Ingham

[The PIT]

46 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Similar to events the past two weeks

 

Ah total rain then.

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, The PIT said:

Ah total rain then.

I had snow @ 60metres twice 5cm

[The PIT]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Pit the period of snow between 12pm and 6pm the uppers are cold enough and so is the wet bulb.

We need -0.5 uppers and same for the dps as the wet bulb looks fine in this period.

Evaporative cooling will be important we need 1 hour of moderate precipitation to turn rain to snow ans we have 6 hours forecast.

Its a unique situation

That guide doesnt work with embedded cold.

Anyway! When we see snow settling bring up all these parameters and it will show what we needed

@Kasim Awan

Will be interested to hear your thoughts

Disagree I'm afraid.

Use John's guide it's very very good used a lot of times to beat the met office.

[The PIT]

This is going to be a very odd winter month possible a very cold one by a fair margin. Yet so far haven't had any measurable snow at time of recording and zero days with full cover.

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, The PIT said:

Disagree I'm afraid.

Use John's guide it's very very good used a lot of times to beat the met office.

Well see come thursday then thats all i can say.

Every situation is unique.

-0.5 upper temps is all you need. Snowline is at 300metres due to embedded cold bringing the tempereture higher up further down.

We need a 1.5c starting tempertature and also need doing the mathematical equation a 0.8 degrees evaporartive cooling drop.

This equates to 1 hour + of heavy precipitation to bring thid down

We have 6 hours between 12 and 6 forecast so should start to snow and settle between 1pm and 6pm

Water to snow concentration will be better the higher you are up. So above 200metres 10-15cm and below 100 metres 2-5cm

Its tiresome pondering so i guess well wait to the day!

[CasMan]

I live at 15 metres above sea level not far from Leeds, on Saturday the 2nd January we got a good dumping of snow, would be interested to know what people were predicting then for lower levels and what the temp, dew point, wet bulb etc was.

[winterof79]

Some have had loads of snow that's how it goes. Glass half empty some glass half full. 

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, The PIT said:

This is going to be a very odd winter month possible a very cold one by a fair margin. Yet so far haven't had any measurable snow at time of recording and zero days with full cover.

Your still paying back what you owe for that 17" snowfall you got sometime in december 2010, whilst 95% of the region missed out!

That was one of my most painful days in weather watching! 

[The PIT]

1 minute ago, CasMan said:

I live at 15 metres above sea level not far from Leeds, on Saturday the 2nd January we got a good dumping of snow, would be interested to know what people were predicting then for lower levels and what the temp, dew point, wet bulb etc was.

And the conditions were right for that. Totally different situation this.