Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Was talking more of a locked in period of cold starting Thursday bud. Its sorted in my eyes and I am not being swayed by the doom merchants over in the mod thread. 

Sometimes you just know when you've seen all the evidence. Those who wish to fret  come back next week and if it's not happened I'll gladly eat humble pie. Cheers J

Understood.

I already am thinking like that from what ive seen. We are locked into a fantastic spell of weather

All i would say is if you lived down south id be nervous.

Where we are were far enough north i can only see it being extremeley snowy

[Cheese Rice]

Hmmmm I'm edging towers high ground Leeds northwards. 

Eventually turning to snow on it's back edge. 

Definitely a close but no cigar type of event 

[Scott Ingham]

The 12z are an upgrade as kasim says. Keep an eye on his updates as short term snow foecasting is his sepciality. I know more about long term hes very good short term and with the wet bulb pushed even further back which is more important than uppers even the midlands will get upwards of 5cm from this. We are in the firing line here for a good spell of snow thursday

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Cheese Rice said:

Hmmmm I'm edging towers high ground Leeds northwards. 

Eventually turning to snow on it's back edge. 

Definitely a close but no cigar type of event 

Hi res models see us all get battered pal i think your forecast is under playing it at the minute but it is marginal.

The 12z hi res up our chances

[Cheese Rice]

9 hours into the front this is where we are projected by the met office own high res model.

Freezing levels only on the pennines with most of Yorkshire around 1-3.c.

I'm still expecting snow on the back edge but it's hard to pin point what accumulations would come from that, very now cast. 

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Cheese Rice

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

9 hours into the front this is where we are projected by the met office own high res model.

Freezing levels only on the pennines with most of Yorkshire around 1-3.c.



What day and time is this?

[Paul]

The UKV hi-res hasn't really changed much since the 9z this morning to be fair - the 6z was about the best run today for snow risk, with the remainder so far lessening it a touch. In terms of the wet bulb height, you're going to want to be in the blue areas (height of 600m or less) to be in with a semi-reasonable shot of seeing some falling snow - and that'll need some persistent, fairly heavy precipitation, particularly if you're in an area where the wet-bulb freezing height is above 300m. 

At the moment, it looks to me like a higher level event in the main, with ice thanks to rain and wet snow being the main hazard below 150-200m or so. There's time for change of course, and locally things may spice up at times if there are some heavier bursts of precip, but if you're expecting a white out everywhere then I think that's unlikely. 

[Harsh Climate]

12 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

Hmmmm I'm edging towers high ground Leeds northwards. 

Eventually turning to snow on it's back edge. 

Definitely a close but no cigar type of event 

I'm with you on this one, I even think the likes of cookridge/yeadon that hit the jackpot last week will probably just be the wrong side of marginal for the most part.

So in my opinion no big snow event below 250m but I think many of us could see a little back edge snow before it clears away/ fizzles away. Do hope I'm wrong though!

 

[Cheese Rice]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

What day and time is this?

9pm Wednesday, by this time we are talking 9 hours into the front rain throughout.

Back edge snow seems the main risk but you can't rule out areas North Leeds further north on high ground seeing something. 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

2 minutes ago, Paul said:

The UKV hi-res hasn't really changed much since the 9z this morning to be fair - the 6z was about the best run today for snow risk, with the remainder so far lessening it a touch. In terms of the wet bulb height, you're going to want to be in the blue areas (height of 600m or less) to be in with a semi-reasonable shot of seeing some falling snow - and that'll need some persistent, fairly heavy precipitation, particularly if you're in an area where the wet-bulb freezing height is above 300m. 

At the moment, it looks to me like a higher level event in the main, with ice thanks to rain and wet snow being the main hazard below 150-200m or so. There's time for change of course, and locally things may spice up at times if there are some heavier bursts of precip, but if you're expecting a white out everywhere then I think that's unlikely. 

I notice that chart is for Midnight Wednesday into Thursday.  I thought our main interest in terms of snow was Thursday morning onwards?

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Paul said:

The UKV hi-res hasn't really changed much since the 9z this morning to be fair - the 6z was about the best run today for snow risk, with the remainder so far lessening it a touch. In terms of the wet bulb height, you're going to want to be in the blue areas (height of 600m or less) to be in with a semi-reasonable shot of seeing some falling snow - and that'll need some persistent, fairly heavy precipitation, particularly if you're in an area where the wet-bulb freezing height is above 300m. 

At the moment, it looks to me like a higher level event in the main, with ice thanks to rain and wet snow being the main hazard below 150-200m or so. There's time for change of course, and locally things may spice up at times if there are some heavier bursts of precip, but if you're expecting a white out everywhere then I think that's unlikely. 

Whats showing for thursday evening?

This is the period of interest for most of yorkshire and reason for the met office warning of 2-5cm lower down

[Cheese Rice]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

I'm with you on this one, I even think the likes of cookridge/yeadon that hit the jackpot last week will probably just be the wrong side of marginal for the most part.

So in my opinion no big snow event below 250m but I think many of us could see a little back edge snow before it clears away/ fizzles away. Do hope I'm wrong though!

 

 

There could be 2-5 cm of wet snow at these elevations but we'll see. 

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Cheese Rice said:

9pm Wednesday, by this time we are talking 9 hours into the front rain throughout.

Back edge snow seems the main risk but you can't rule out areas North Leeds further north on high ground seeing something. 

Thursday evening is the area of interest.

Wednesday will be freezing rain

[Harsh Climate]

2 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

9pm Wednesday, by this time we are talking 9 hours into the front rain throughout.

Back edge snow seems the main risk but you can't rule out areas North Leeds further north on high ground seeing something. 

I can see somewhere Like greenhow hill getting a good 8/9" before thursdays out. Top of otley chevin should have decent covering two.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

I notice that chart is for Midnight Wednesday into Thursday.  I thought our main interest in terms of snow was Thursday morning onwards?

Thursday afternoon at a push.

My neck is pushed out for snow thursday later

[Cheese Rice]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Thursday evening is the area of interest.

Wednesday will be freezing rain

The front has left Yorkshire by 6pm so we are relying on day time evaporating cooling. 

[adrianh]

Thursday does appear to have potential for us again! - it's on the marginal side of course but at least we're in the mix

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Cheese Rice said:

The front has left Yorkshire by 6pm so we are relying on day time evaporating cooling. 

If you believe current modelling yes

Met office have the timing pushed back on this in there warning taking into account over modelling of warm air

[Scott Ingham]

Arpege on the 12z has already pushed the front back 2 hours.

Heavy snow for yorkshire at 12pm thursday

Edited January 12, 2021 by Scott Ingham

[Paul]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Whats showing for thursday evening?

This is the period of interest for most of yorkshire and reason for the met office warning of 2-5cm lower down

It only goes out to thursday 1800 and is starting to clear the precip out by then and mostly, but it's still mostly high ground at that point by the looks of it. The 15z will give a better indication of that as it runs out to 120 hours, but bear in mind that the meto warning ends at 2100 on Thurs so you'd assume they're not expecting loads to happen that evening or they'd have it running for longer. 

[Scott Ingham]

Next 4 frames.

Thats 5 hours of heavy snow and id post it going on for longer but it takes too much time

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Paul said:

It only goes out to thursday 1800 and is starting to clear the precip out by then and mostly, but it's still mostly high ground at that point by the looks of it. The 15z will give a better indication of that as it runs out to 120 hours, but bear in mind that the meto warning ends at 2100 on Thurs so you'd assume they're not expecting loads to happen that evening or they'd have it running for longer. 

Yeah okay thanks

Have you viewed the update 12z arpege?

Ive posted 12 while 5 underneath.

Its a big upgrade.

But you show one model on hills and o show one model akin to the met warning which shows how knife edge it is

[Guest]

Looks good in gif format, @Scott Ingham  I remain very wary given the marginality of the situation, but certainly potential for high ground to get a really good dumping of snow.

 

[Scott Ingham]

So thats 5pm 6pm 7pm from 12pm

You could also argue we have snow from midnight in places 12 hourd earlier but this looks 200metres n higher

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

Looks good in gif format, @Scott Ingham  I remain very wary given the marginality of the situation, but certainly potential for high ground to get a really good dumping of snow.

 

Looks even better in that format mate.

Im with the met and @Kasim Awan

2-7cm low down

There is arguments there for snow from 12am to 7pm nearly 24 hours of it

Edited January 12, 2021 by Scott Ingham