North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[SnowWatcher2]

GFS now on board... all looking good so far

[SnowWatcher2]

 Tue/Wed - totaling 74.2mm over the 2 days on most recent Net weather update.. hmm 

Edited January 31, 2021 by SnowWatcher2

[Dan B]

Drinking Ardbeg Corry and watching Tiny Desk on the Toob... 

 

Just dragged the moggy in and it's bloody cold out there. - 1.5°C and freezing but the wind is ripping cold! 

[Iceaxecrampon]

00z Tuesday

On the whole unreliable ppn graphs 

Weak Sleet 

3hrs later further N 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Purbeck Dorset next weekend were we visit regularly. Including being there on the hottest ever recorded UK temp in 2003. 



Couldn’t make it up. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

8 hours ago, Day 10 said:

Latest ICON then Tuesday morning.

 

Wirral/Liverpool/Cheshire.

Rain to rain event.

The rest - Snow.

If Tues fails I think I'll give up - it's too exhausting. A 5 year wait followed by a 3 year wait, which could turn into another 5 year wait at this rate.

Just waiting on the GFS correcting north again...

 

I’m with you on that. 
Chart fatigue setting in. 
Not to mention missing out on a few Alpine Cumbrian days. 

[Spah1]

46 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Purbeck Dorset next weekend were we visit regularly. Including being there on the hottest ever recorded UK temp in 2003. 



Couldn’t make it up. 

 

West Lancs (Chorley) just not cold enough. May see snow for an hour then rain as it pushes through. Looks like an epic event further North and East. It needs to be another 3/4 degrees colder. 

[Spah1]

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

A spell of wet and windy weather moves northeast on Tuesday, with some hill snow. Drier, brighter and milder on Wednesday. Cloudy and breezy with outbreaks of rain on Thursday.
 

Doesn’t sound good. 

[Slidergate '17]

Tuesday is looking poor for lowland areas in the south of the region IMO. Further north and east looks more promising for a good few hours of snow in the morning. That mild air wants to rush right through us quite quickly, which hasn't happened on the last 2 fronts coming into a cold air mass the last week or so. Very annoying to say the least.

[Day 10]

2 hours ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

I’m with you on that. 
Chart fatigue setting in. 
Not to mention missing out on a few Alpine Cumbrian days. 

What a joke mate, I hate this word but yet another downgrade.

The Met update is like a dagger to the heart, expect the warnings to shift North today.

I'm not sure how you've done for snow lately, but what has the Wirral & parts of Merseyside got to do to get lying snow. I didn't realise until last night but it will be 3 years in March, so poor.

[Weather-history]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

 

I'm not sure how you've done for snow lately, but what has the Wirral & parts of Merseyside got to do to get lying snow. I didn't realise until last night but it will be 3 years in March, so poor.

That area got lying snow in the middle of May in 1935......

[Iceaxecrampon]

12 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

What a joke mate, I hate this word but yet another downgrade.

The Met update is like a dagger to the heart, expect the warnings to shift North today.

I'm not sure how you've done for snow lately, but what has the Wirral & parts of Merseyside got to do to get lying snow. I didn't realise until last night but it will be 3 years in March, so poor.

If you know us on the snowstarved fenlands  - we travel  - can get to the top of Kirkstone in under an hour for a fix  park up for a quick bimble up St Ravens edge and back in the pub for tea and scones.

Not at the moment. 

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, Spah1 said:

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

A spell of wet and windy weather moves northeast on Tuesday, with some hill snow. Drier, brighter and milder on Wednesday. Cloudy and breezy with outbreaks of rain on Thursday.
 

Doesn’t sound good. 

 

21 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

What a joke mate, I hate this word but yet another downgrade.

The Met update is like a dagger to the heart, expect the warnings to shift North today.

I'm not sure how you've done for snow lately, but what has the Wirral & parts of Merseyside got to do to get lying snow. I didn't realise until last night but it will be 3 years in March, so poor.

Maybe I jumped in too quick.

Spah, we're did you get that forecast from? Without looking I just thought you got it from the Met but I've just checked it and it's not as bad as I thought. Plus I've just checked the Gfs and that isn't as bad either. Not checked others yet.

Note to self, check all data first before reacting to posts when just waking up. Looks like it'll go down to the wire.

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

 

Maybe I jumped in too quick.

Spah, we're did you get that forecast from? Without looking I just thought you got it from the Met but I've just checked it and it's not as bad as I thought. Plus I've just checked the Gfs and that isn't as bad either. Not checked others yet.

Note to self, check all data first before reacting to posts when just waking up. Looks like it'll go down to the wire.

Probably will go to the wire but the 06z GFS has a sleety mix for the NW and coast then 3 hrs later a few miles further north as per it's like Narnia and not exclusively for altitude.

Yes still - all to play for  - if not maybe the South Coast for winteriness next weekend? - maybe not.

[frosty ground]

I think you are right it’s pretty much a non event now for the southern areas of our region south of Lancaster.

the UKMet App has trended warmer Tuesday for the last 36 hours and Wednesday is now a full on mild day 

 even Thursday and Friday are milder but still showing light snow 

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Probably will go to the wire but the 06z GFS has a sleety mix for the NW and coast then 3 hrs later a few miles further north as per it's like Narnia and not exclusively for altitude.

Yes still - all to play for  - if not maybe the South Coast for winteriness next weekend? - maybe not.

Yeah, still looks a few hours of snow before turning back. Just taking the Gfs in isolation it has slowed the front down since Friday so I'm hoping it will continue that trend.

[Spah1]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

Yeah, still looks a few hours of snow before turning back. Just taking the Gfs in isolation it has slowed the front down since Friday so I'm hoping it will continue that trend.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Unsettled on Tuesday with coastal gales and outbreaks of rain and snow, giving ice in places. Becoming drier and brighter with lighter winds on Wednesday. Further rain and snow Thursday.
 

The one I posted was for Yorkshire and Humber. I was looking at Settle which I thought would be a prime location. 
NW above

[severe snowstorm]

2 hours ago, Spah1 said:

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

A spell of wet and windy weather moves northeast on Tuesday, with some hill snow. Drier, brighter and milder on Wednesday. Cloudy and breezy with outbreaks of rain on Thursday.
 

Doesn’t sound good. 

Where is that forecast from? The metoffice forecast for our region is as follows, which sounds better:

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Unsettled on Tuesday with coastal gales and outbreaks of rain and snow, giving ice in places. Becoming drier and brighter with lighter winds on Wednesday. Further rain and snow Thursday.

[Day 10]

WRF has improved. Let's just hope all models as they normally do in these situations underestimate the ease in which they can push northeast. At the very least a 50 mile shift South would make a huge difference.

[Spah1]

1 minute ago, Dexter said:

Where is that forecast from? The metoffice forecast for our region is as follows, which sounds better:

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Unsettled on Tuesday with coastal gales and outbreaks of rain and snow, giving ice in places. Becoming drier and brighter with lighter winds on Wednesday. Further rain and snow Thursday.

See above 

[Spah1]

Just now, Day 10 said:

WRF has improved. Let's just hope all models as they normally do in these situations underestimate the ease in which they can push northeast. At the very least a 50 mile shift South would make a huge difference.

Agreed 

[Spah1]

To be honest, so what if it snows it’s going to rain right behind it. 

[iand61]

BBC forecast mentioned heavy snow overnight Monday and into Tuesday for Northern England and Scotland.

no more specific than that and my gut feeling is still that the Narnia wardrobe door will be a long way north of here but at least they are talking about snow up here rather than over the Chilterns.

big question for me today is do I venture out for a bit of a walk today after 10 days confined to barracks or sit in the warmth for another day.

Looking at the breeze blowing, the latter is certainly tempting.

Edited January 31, 2021 by iand61

[severe snowstorm]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

See above 

Cheers. Weird that the forecast sounds less wintry for places further North and East on Tuesday.

[The Northern Ramper]

17 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Probably will go to the wire but the 06z GFS has a sleety mix for the NW and coast then 3 hrs later a few miles further north as per it's like Narnia and not exclusively for altitude.

Yes still - all to play for  - if not maybe the South Coast for winteriness next weekend? - maybe not.

I thought the gfs 6z didn’t start until 09:30?