North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Joe Bloggs]

Morning all  

So my MetO app is just showing rain now, not even sleet - so I can only assume it’s a downgrade from the UKV.  BBC app is also just showing rain so it must be a downgrade from the EPS also. 
 

ICON is also showing rain now for the south of the region for Tuesday early hours. 

 GFS shows little to no snow for my location either.

In summary for the south of the region I’d suggest the balance has shifted away from snow, for now. 

[Joe Bloggs]

Edit - good news about the WRF. Let’s see what the 06z runs bring. 

[Spah1]

5 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Cheers. Weird that the forecast sounds less wintry for places further North and East on Tuesday.

Agreed. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

3 minutes ago, Ramp said:

I thought the gfs 6z didn’t start until 09:30?

Of course....

[Spah1]

2 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Morning all  

So my MetO app is just showing rain now, not even sleet - so I can only assume it’s a downgrade from the UKV.  BBC app is also just showing rain so it must be a downgrade from the EPS also. 
 

ICON is also showing rain now for the south of the region for Tuesday early hours. 

 GFS shows little to no snow for my location either.

In summary for the south of the region I’d suggest the balance has shifted away from snow, for now. 

How on earth can the warning be for north Birmingham. I Expect an alert today at about 12 from the Met with modified warnings moving the warning north 

[severe snowstorm]

All eyes on the warning update later this morning. I suspect it will be shifted North by at least 50 miles if the latest output is anything to go by.

[severe snowstorm]

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

How on earth can the warning be for north Birmingham. I Expect an alert today at about 12 from the Met with modified warnings moving the warning north 

It's usually only updated daily around late morning this far in advance of an event so that's based on out of date data now. Will almost certainly be shifted North later this morning.

[Spah1]

3 minutes ago, Dexter said:

It's usually only updated daily around late morning this far in advance of an event so that's based on out of date data now. Will almost certainly be shifted North later this morning.

Unbelievable really. Those events below us shift south. This one may shift north. We’ll see

[severe snowstorm]

6 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Unbelievable really. Those events below us shift south. This one may shift north. We’ll see

Yes, very frustrating, we always seem to be stuck in the middle with these frontal events, either too far North and dry, or too far South and wet. That said, we did get lucky the week before last. Let's just hope the models are over estimating the progression, although once they start trending a certain  way, they don't usually backtrack this close to an event.

Edited January 31, 2021 by Dexter

[Spah1]

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Snow over northern hills
 

Can’t be bothered. Phone being put away today. Look out of window Tuesday. 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Spah1

[Day 10]

14 minutes ago, Dexter said:

All eyes on the warning update later this morning. I suspect it will be shifted North by at least 50 miles if the latest output is anything to go by.

Southern extent - Norway (ok for Liverpool fans)

[russwirral]

Radar looks a little bit further east and north than any model was calling...

 

Keep an eye on that incoming front people in merseyside

Edited January 31, 2021 by russwirral

[Day 10]

A reminder of the warning at present, let's see how it changes.

[Chris.R]

Steady as she goes from WRF; still showing 4-5 hours heavy snow followed by ice pellets for lowland NW England. If anything the cold air near the surface is slightly more stubborn giving a longer period of ice pellets. 
I don’t see any significant downgrade at all. I know GFS 06Z is not as good but then I try and make a habit of not looking at GFS this close because it is not hi resolution.

also me personally snow followed by rain is better than just rain. As I said last night snow very rarely lasts longer than a few hours on the ground around here anyway anymore.

[Chris.R]

WRF did hint at some precipitation overnight on the last run but dropped it on 0Z. Maybe it will bring it back.

[iand61]

5 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

A reminder of the warning at present, let's see how it changes.

So assuming the yellow and white marker pens are sat waiting to be used, where are we reckoning the changes will be.

I’m going for the central spine to remain with the southern extent being the Peak District and the northern one remains roughly where it currently is.

tomorrow i reckon it will move north again with anywhere much south of the Stainmore Gap missing out.

no science behind this but the system in the middle of last week promised a lot of snow but delivered the above and I can see no reason why this one will behave any differently.

 

[snowdrifter]

Agreed @Chris.R re snow followed by rain. Often it can be rain trying to be followed by snow in the NW, but with wet ground and high DPs it doesn't happen, so I'll take how ever many hours of snow on dry ground we can get! 

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, iand61 said:

So assuming the yellow and white marker pens are sat waiting to be used, where are we reckoning the changes will be.

I’m going for the central spine to remain with the southern extent being the Peak District and the northern one remains roughly where it currently is.

tomorrow i reckon it will move north again with anywhere much south of the Stainmore Gap missing out.

no science behind this but the system in the middle of last week promised a lot of snow but delivered the above and I can see no reason why this one will behave any differently.

 

I'll tell you after 11am

[Joe Bloggs]

FWIW, 06z ICON isn’t great - just some some snow now for the hills in the NE of the region. I’m only looking at the precipitation charts though. 
 

Definitely a downgrade shown on this model at least. 

[Day 10]

Tuesday - 6am

Comparing like for like runs from yesterday to today or as close to what I managed to save.

ICON - Further North

Sat 6z to Sun 6z

GFS - Further South

Sat 6z - Sun 6z

UKV - Further North

Sat 3z to Sun 6z

ECM - Further North

Sat 0z to Sun 0z

WRF - I'll leave that to Chris

 

Met Text

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Unsettled on Tuesday with coastal gales and outbreaks of rain and snow, giving ice in places.

Becoming drier and brighter with lighter winds on Wednesday. Further rain and snow Thursday.

 

Fax - Yesterday to Today, further North.

 

So a definite trend further North today in general apart from GFS & WRF.

We awaited the MetO warning with baited breath!

 

 

 

[severe snowstorm]

This is the Euro 4 projection for now. Check the radar, the front has advanced further East than projected at this stage. It's already halfway across Wales. The model is way out.

Edited January 31, 2021 by Dexter

[frosty ground]

Bag of popcorn for the Mod thread on standby this thread should be irritating too

[Day 10]

Just now, Dexter said:

This the Euro 4 projection for now. Check the radar, the front has advanced further East than projected at this stage. It's already halfway across Wales. The model is way out.

I don't like that model, it's been wrong here this Winter every single time.

[severe snowstorm]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

I don't like that model, it's been wrong here this Winter every single time.

A broken clock and all that...let's hope it's right this time as this could deliver a little surprise today if so.

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, Dexter said:

A broken clock and all that...let's hope it's right this time as this could deliver a little surprise today if so.

Yes it's still marching North East.

Edited January 31, 2021 by Day 10