Model output discussion - Into 2021

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Turn into a bit of insomniac when the output is this good!

Ukmo 120 v GFS 120. Hopefully GFS is leading the way. It has the better Greenland profile.

 

 

Also of note to me is that it has a more well defined low forming over the Canaries!

That will help to prevent the high from sagging  and may well move up to us later!! (Keep the southerners happy!).

MIA

[Mike Poole]

6 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Mike, the U wind at 1hpa is already -27 m/s 

Above 50N it’s reversed down to 3hpa and at the pole it’s reversed down to 9 hpa. 
 

I’m still unsure how you think this might not happen at 10hpa/60N when it’s already happening ??

The models aren’t flailing pre SSW - they may be struggling to resolve the early hemispheric response as the flow reverses - is that what you’re getting at ??

 

Yes.

[Battleground Snow]

17 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Also of note to me is that it has a more well defined low forming over the Canaries!

That will help to prevent the high from sagging  and may well move up to us later!! (Keep the southerners happy!).

MIA

Indeed, big differences at 144.

GFS, GFS P and ukmo. It's never simple for the UK is it... Will be nervous watching the ECm later now.

 

Edit; have added gem at 144... Looks in the middle, which I wouldn't be surprised to see ECM do later.

 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Drifter]

Crikey - I sincerely hope ukmo has malfunctioned this morning - that 144 chart is dreadful!

[Mucka]

IMO UKMO 144 is about as bad as we can do from where we are as far as sustaining cold and snow chances go in days leading up to mid month but that is the way it has been going for a few runs.

GFS is certainly better than that but not as good as the 18z was with low pressure struggling to move S and the Atlantic block flatter

GFSp also better than UKMO for amplification though would have to suffer a brief mild sector from the N on this run

 

Probably better to concentrate on the cold we have and snow chances for now if you are of a nervous disposition because it is getting near squeaky bum time as to whether we can sustain the cold and snow chances toward mid Jan.

Let's just hope that f the pattern does flatten like UKMO we can at least maintain low heights to our S and get some renewed Atlantic amplification fairly quickly.

Ending on a bright note GFSp manages to squeeze out the warm sector enough to give a widespread snow event and has the strongest Atlantic blocking at 168

 

We need ECM to back GFS but can UKMO be that wrong at 144? It is all about the low now just T96/120 and how much energy we can get to disrupt S

 

 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Mucka

[Djdazzle]

Bearing in mind that FI is 120 at the most, I’m not getting hung up on 144 charts. In any case, the UKMO 144 chart doesn’t have a great reputation.

[mountain shadow]

52 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Crikey - I sincerely hope ukmo has malfunctioned this morning - that 144 chart is dreadful!

It's already gone by t+120 though with energy piling over the top.

There's no way the t+120 is that wrong at that range.

 

[northwestsnow]

48 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's already gone by t+120 though with energy piling over the top.

There's no way the t+120 is that wrong at that range.

 

Typical ..

Looked at GFS and boom came to mind.

I thought wow, just need UKMO to look similar at day 5 ...

I say typical as it happens so many times and it always seems to be the least appealing that verifies !!

I'm hoping GFS is right here !!

[That ECM]

T120 and it’s not resolved. FWIW ECM fits with met imo..

Edited January 3, 2021 by That ECM

[mulzy]

ECM and UKMO very similar at day 6 - looks like a general flattening of the pattern in the medium term.  Significantly more accelerated than what the ensemble suites have been advertising.

Edited January 3, 2021 by mulzy

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

ECM and UKMO very similar at day 6 - looks like a general flattening of the pattern in the medium term.  Significantly more accelerated than what the ensemble suites have advertising.

I would suggest both are to quick. If so then what gfs goes on to show is a possibility.

[northwestsnow]

Drat.

EC is getting flatter by the day ...

I do hope we see some positive effects from this SSW as Euro are trending the wrong way at the moment..

Let's hope it is temporary.

Edited January 3, 2021 by northwestsnow

[Ali1977]

9 minutes ago, mulzy said:

ECM and UKMO very similar at day 6 - looks like a general flattening of the pattern in the medium term.  Significantly more accelerated than what the ensemble suites have been advertising.

Yup, disappointing as I didn’t think we’d have charts like this at day seven. After a flip to less cold It rarely goes back blocked at this stage!! SSW might help, see what the 12zs are showing 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

8 hours ago, SnOwFeSt said:

We’ve had snow all day and fun out sledding and making snowmen with the kids today.

..None of which was forecast until this morning. With low pressure and deep cold air around anything can happen at short notice!

Lucky you guys up North!

Theres nothing showing snow for us in Windsor either in the charts or the MetO website in the next 7 days. Until I see proof it’s all pie in the sky folk suggesting it is otherwise.

[radiohead]

UKMO or ECM would be bad enough news on their own, but the fact that they have both moved in the same direction is very bad news.

It's unlikely I think that they will both change back to show the GFS type solution since the damage is done in the 120-144 period and not far off in FI. More likely that the GFS will move towards the UKMO and ECM over the next 24 hours. ECM is just the better model at that timeframe + the fact that it has support from the UKMO.

[PiscesStar]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

UKMO or ECM would be bad enough news on their own, but the fact that they have both moved in the same direction is very bad news.

It's unlikely I think that they will both change back to show the GFS type solution since the damage is done in the 120-144 period and not far off in FI. More likely that the GFS will move towards the UKMO and ECM over the next 24 hours. ECM is just the better model at that timeframe + the fact that it has support from the UKMO.

Typical 

[That ECM]

12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yup, disappointing as I didn’t think we’d have charts like this at day seven. After a flip to less cold It rarely goes back blocked at this stage!! SSW might help, see what the 12zs are showing 

If this was an accurate chart at this time frame. I would think blocked from there would be the most probable route. Not much to fire up the jet stream over us. Hey, all about opinions about a chart that’s probably wrong but I’m not unhappy.

[Jason H]

No denying that ECM and UKMO are singing from the same sheet at day 5 which is at the edge of reliability. I'll let people more learned then I decipher the reasons for this.

[PiscesStar]

2 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Also of note to me is that it has a more well defined low forming over the Canaries!

That will help to prevent the high from sagging  and may well move up to us later!! (Keep the southerners happy!).

MIA

Could Do with some joy. Haven't seen a flake yet 

[Tim Bland]

It always seems to be 1 step forward on the 18z and 2 steps back on the 00z runs. It’s not good news that the ECM and UKMO are singing from the same hymn sheet and the song is awefull ! 
 

Did I dream that GFSp run last night

Edited January 3, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Radiating Dendrite]

00z runs always start the day on a downer.

Let's see, UKMO has not been great recently and the ECM still looks like it could go more GFS.

[PiscesStar]

8 minutes ago, radiohead said:

UKMO or ECM would be bad enough news on their own, but the fact that they have both moved in the same direction is very bad news.

It's unlikely I think that they will both change back to show the GFS type solution since the damage is done in the 120-144 period and not far off in FI. More likely that the GFS will move towards the UKMO and ECM over the next 24 hours. ECM is just the better model at that timeframe + the fact that it has support from the UKMO.

 

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It always seems to be 1 step forward on the 18z and 2 steps back on the 00z runs. It’s not good news that the ECM and UKMO are singing from the same hymn sheet and the song is awefull ! 

Par for the course. 

[Blessed Weather]

Good morning. Could I please remind everyone that this isn't the thread for one-line moans. Please use the Moans/Chat thread. Thank you.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Game over unless a miracle happens now!

It was always going to be pathetic for southern areas from a weak northerly setup!

 

 

[iowpompeylee]

Exactly what I started to expect from the models, flipping and flopping especially when a SSW is in process! Hang in there people! Plenty of twists and turns to come