Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

[Troubleatmill]

Looking east rather than west and that main core of the Trop PV is marching west from northeastern Russia toward Scandinavia. Can't complain where there cold uppers are if that came to fruition! T144 and T240

[Kentspur]

Minus 10c uppers starting to hit the Northern regions- Elsewhere I spy a minus 28c over Western Russia- If only we could tap into a long fetch easterly from here

Edited January 11, 2021 by Kentspur

[Jason H]

Lots of knew jerk reactions to the overnight and morning runs, in both directions. There's no denying, no matter what way the models try and thwart it, there's always some cold solution. Enjoy the ride. Look for the overall trends, not the details, especially past 4/5 days.

[Tim Bland]

️

[IDO]

Looking at the NH profile, even nicer to the eye:

Rare to see the axis of cold uppers on that path, usually 3-9 o'clock!

[ALL ABOARD]

If and it's a big if, as nothing is guaranteed in the weather, you get this amount of cold into Europe 

You'd need a strong jet to shift it, otherwise what does come across the Atlantic given the state of the atmosphere would just bump into it produce snow and then slide away into Europe. 

Edited January 11, 2021 by ALL ABOARD

[mb018538]

Whatever the models chop and change to, it's nice to be in with some lottery tickets in the dead of winter for a change.

Mid to late January is as good for getting lasting cold as July to early August is for peak heat in the summer. We're in the sweet spot folks. Just need a bit of luck now!

Edited January 11, 2021 by mb018538

[MJB]

18 minutes ago, Howie said:

The high pressure over South West Europe just doesn't want to quit, it stops the cold air coming South 

I don't understand why you say that , it's clear the cold is far enough South

Edited January 11, 2021 by MJB

[Ali1977]

Another mighty cold run from the GFS, snowier than the 00z not quite as cold but still classed in the “severe” bracket I would say.

Today we just need to hope the ENS jump more and more onboard with the Ops , and keep an eye out on tweets from the Pro’s. 
 

All very exciting, albeit not nailed “yet”

[XtremeUKWeather]

Lovely 6z some differences but those will come and go this week 

till Friday we should focus on getting this theme and trend nailed down , as there’s still lots to play for 

onto 12z

[ALL ABOARD]

Also beautiful sypnotics from the para after its wobble yesterday. 

It makes a rats weeble of shortwaves in the Atlantic earlier on in the run but this allows eventually for a better Greenland high. 

Edited January 11, 2021 by ALL ABOARD

[SLEETY]

gfs P looking good again,can we get the minus 20 upper air to advance towards us.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

don't tell Express! ridiculous snow bomb, FEET of snow expected, still decent theme on GFS, but getting pushed back? seems to be Wed now, not Mon

[Methuselah]

Well, these synoptics would deliver a nationwide snow-event alright; it's just a pity that Day 11 is the new Day 10... And, as another caveat, these charts are no more 'BOOMtastic' than the ones we witnessed throughout January 2019... an imminent Snowmageddon scenario with which even the MetO was 'onboard'...? I'll believe when I see it -- and pray that I do!

    

So, that's the models sorted; now it's over to the real weather!

[mountain shadow]

8 minutes ago, IDO said:

Looking at the NH profile, even nicer to the eye:

Rare to see the axis of cold uppers on that path, usually 3-9 o'clock!

If IDOs ramping, time to clear the shelves! 

[GSP]

After such a good GFS 0z, I wasn’t expecting such a good 6z in truth.

Yes, the words of caution at this stage are very valid. It just takes one pressure system not to behave as expected to throw a spanner in the cogs.

But my, are we getting interested now!

[Kentspur]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Another mighty cold run from the GFS, snowier than the 00z not quite as cold but still classed in the “severe” bracket I would say.

Today we just need to hope the ENS jump more and more onboard with the Ops , and keep an eye out on tweets from the Pro’s. 
 

All very exciting, albeit not nailed “yet”

As it exciting as it may look for most there's still no ? shown to the SE of London on that chart

[NewEra21]

Another model run ticked off, you just know there will be a wobble at some point this week though. I just hope we don't see the overreaction as we sometimes do when that happens.

The overall pattern across basically every model looks very promising, of course there is a slight variation from run to run. But the overall pattern on every model is something we could have only dreamed of at the start of winter. 

Obviously the cold isn't here yet and there's a lot of water to pass under the bridge, so no over excitement and then throwing yourself off of a bridge from run to run. Let's just enjoy the ride and hope it all eventually plays out how we want it!!

Edited January 11, 2021 by NewEra21

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I don't understand why everyone's posting charts over t200 with BOOM, its got as much change of verifying as me loosing a stone in 1 wk. Just not gonna happen. 

Every t120 chart is different atm let alone anything after t144 at the very latest. 

At one point there's talk of snow this Wed Thurs I doupt thats gonna happen now but if we can't nail 4 days who's gonna nail 10?

Look for similarities, compare 12z with 12z and 0z with 0z 

We're struggling to get anything down past 8 days so I'd just look for trends, vortex position, Shape of the jet, pressure set up locations high and low. 

It's the same every year, stop getting emotionally tied up in the moment, I know you may like the chase but it's a painful choice 

[Notty]

This demonstrates (to me at least) that GEFS are still very much undecided after four days. 15th does seem to be the "go/no go" date.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=48501

[Battleground Snow]

Mean a slight improvement at 180

A little bit sharper into Greenland

Edited January 11, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[winterof79]

The word "nailed" is being over used  in the wrong context.... 

I have nailed many a picture to the wall only to find it on the floor the next day. 

I think we should use "screwed" 

I'll get my coat. 

[GSP]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

The word "nailed" is being over used  in the wrong context.... 

I have nailed many a picture to the wall only to find it on the floor the next day. 

I think we should use "screwed" 

I'll get my coat. 

Yep, a number will never learn after all the false dawns.

[SLEETY]

gfs p very good,and now MINUS  200 uppers appearing over svalbard,if that gets here,then  NORTH SEA freezing over 

[goosey007]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

gfs p very good,and now MINUS  200 uppers appearing over svalbard,if that gets here,then  NORTH SEA freezing over 

-200 thats a ramp of the day