North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[dodge]

We've had a lot of rain in the Oldham area today, this morning's rain just stuck around instead of clearing out of the way and then the torrential showers have just lined one after the other.  The road prone for flooding near Daisy Nook (Stannybrook Rd) has been closed and one in Grasscroft.

[Chris.R]

Big rainbow as the shower clears.

[Chris.R]

[Had Worse]

20 minutes ago, dodge said:

We've had a lot of rain in the Oldham area today, this morning's rain just stuck around instead of clearing out of the way and then the torrential showers have just lined one after the other.  The road prone for flooding near Daisy Nook (Stannybrook Rd) has been closed and one in Grasscroft.

Just picked my lad up from Newbridge and decided to use the M67 / M60 to get there as id heard Stannybrook Road was flooded.

If only these heavy showers could line up with snow like 2009 /10.

[WillinGlossop]

Torrential rain and pretty mad winds in Manchester yesterday afternoon/evening… 

torrential showers this morning getting the tram at St. Peter’s square this morning… 

now hail showers/torrential rain… keeps on coming… 

Road at broadbottom with bridge to Charlesworth  looked flooded from train at lunchtime 

[A Face like Thunder]

We've been lucky this afternoon with blue skies and no rain. I think we may be in for a cold night, as forecast, with clearing skies.

[Frost HoIIow]

Wow what a horrid day it's been. Just a few hundred metres down the road from me is flooded at Daisy Nook. Was going to go IKEA in Ashton to pick up an order that way but had to turn back. So had to go the long way round.

[WillinGlossop]

Just confirmed on various Facebook local pages drains back logged and flooding in glossop and traffic backed up in broadbottom as bridge flooded 

Edited November 1, 2021 by WillinGlossop

[dodge]

1 hour ago, Had Worse said:

If only these heavy showers could line up with snow like 2009 /10.

Would be a dream to get those conditions again...think I had over a foot of snow fall three times that year in my back garden and I'm by no means in the higher districts of Oldham.  Sadly though since then the marginals have always been on the wrong side for fluffy sticking snow from a north westerly...it's been mostly wet snow very quick to disappear.

[Frost HoIIow]

6 minutes ago, dodge said:

Would be a dream to get those conditions again...think I had over a foot of snow fall three times that year in my back garden and I'm by no means in the higher districts of Oldham.  Sadly though since then the marginals have always been on the wrong side for fluffy sticking snow from a north westerly...it's been mostly wet snow very quick to disappear.

Yeah I'm not generally not a fan of snow from the NW or polar maritime as it's known. Unless we have deep embedded cold in place then it's almost always a marginal toppler and often lasts no more than 24 hours before the cold gets shunted east into the continent but any snow is better than none. Would be great to get a proper easterly in the middle of winter though and not late February/March. Nothing marginal from the east whatsoever. I know folks towards the west of the region aren't fans of an easterly but us in the east can do well sometimes from them. 2013 and 2018 proved that. The first decent snow (15cm+) in November 2010 came from the east as well on the last 2 days of the month

[Day 10]

So it's the 1st November, time to start looking at the Winter charts more seriously now.

Plenty in our favour as it stands this year hence why I fancy at the very least at good start to the Winter (cold/snow).

I'm thinking along the lines of 2009 or 2010 and winds from the north rather than the east.

 

A few of the big drivers below.

 

Low Solar Cycle.

 

Snow & Ice coverage 2010 & 2021

Sunday 31st Oct 2010

Sunday 31st Oct 2021

 

SSW (pinched from the strat thread).

Dr Amy Butler has updated her plot showing the occurrence of SSW years by easterly/westerly QBO and by La Nina/El Nino ENSO.

This shows we get the most #SSWs during La Nina winters and easterly #QBO.

Currently, it's looking possible to get the elusive #LaNina, easterly #QBO this winter, but it's hard to say for sure because QBO at 50 hPa is still westerly and taking its sweet time changing to easterly.

 

I've probably left a few others out like the MJO etc as I do not have any charts/data.

 

Anyways, enough of the above to be positive about this year. Greenland High at some point???

Let the games begin, green light...

[iand61]

Looking at the EA website, 24 hour totals for my part of the region are around 47mm so, although not biblical, it’s certainly been a bit damp.

[A Face like Thunder]

Piece on BBC NW News this evening on high river levels at St Michael's on Wyre, due to (quote) "2.5 ins of rain falling in the hills to the East" 

[iand61]

8 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Piece on BBC NW News this evening on high river levels at St Michael's on Wyre, due to (quote) "2.5 ins of rain falling in the hills to the East" 

Sounds right as the same website is showing 70mm at a spot near Dunsop Bridge in the Bowland Fells.

[Had Worse]

3 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Wow what a horrid day it's been. Just a few hundred metres down the road from me is flooded at Daisy Nook. Was going to go IKEA in Ashton to pick up an order that way but had to turn back. So had to go the long way round.

The irony... Flatpack boat on the wrong side of the water.

[Rain Lady]

4 hours ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Piece on BBC NW News this evening on high river levels at St Michael's on Wyre, due to (quote) "2.5 ins of rain falling in the hills to the East" 

Yes in Bowland we had a drenching on Halloween and this morning.  Picked up 65.2mm from the Met O manual daily gauge here at 9GMT today.   So that brings the Oct total to 252.8mm.  That's the 6th wettest Oct since recording started here in 1968.  More heavy showers today too.  

Looks like it's all downhill now,   After a cold slow spring which reduced the pollinators, we've had a really good summer up here . Lovely and warm and on the dry side.  Just enough rain to keep growth steady, but not so much that pastures have got trodden away by grazing cattle.  Land so dry that the early autumn rain was soon absorbed,   In the veg garden, small early vegs failed, but late sowings did well.  Took a daft risk sowing garden peas in late July (!).  Ground was lovely and warm so they grew to 6ft,   I've had crops from late Sept all through Oct in the warm autumn weather.   Another handful of peas picked today.   They are looking a bit trashed by the overnight heavy rain and wind.  But might get a few more pods tomorrow.  Never known such a late pea harvest,  Probably next very cold night will end them.

Pics

The bottle from the gauge this morning

Last decent part of the bed of peas.

 

[Rain Lady]

Meant to add one more pic.

Grazing cattle have had an easy time this autumn but got a shock this morning (Nov 1st).   After sheltering from the heavy rain last night they set off into the middle of the field when rain slackened this morning, only to get caught in sudden deluge.  Came to the back of the house seeking sympathy -- as usual tails to the wind.  No need for a wind vane. 

Sorry about quality, but it was one of those sorts of mornings.

[Chris.R]

The showers just keep on coming. 60.4 mm of rain in the end yesterday; One of, if not the wettest day of the year. Already had 4.5 mm of rain since midnight.

Edited November 2, 2021 by Chris.R

[dodge]

Irish sea shower-generator looks a bit calmer today...maybe a few rogue showers but nothing like the incessant downpours of yesterday.  Feeling a bit cooler too...not cold..just what it should be at this time of year.  Maybe hitting the 'average' will be the best we can hope for in future years if warming trends continue.

[severe snowstorm]

Lovely start to the day and a largely settled few days coming up here I expect, with the chance of an odd shower, but probably mostly dry. It would be nice if we could achieve some frosts over the next few days, but we'll need some decent clear periods in overnight periods for this. 

[A Face like Thunder]

1 hour ago, severe snowstorm said:

Lovely start to the day and a largely settled few days coming up here I expect, with the chance of an odd shower, but probably mostly dry. It would be nice if we could achieve some frosts over the next few days, but we'll need some decent clear periods in overnight periods for this. 

Agreed, but it certainly felt noticeably colder earlier than previous mornings, despite the sun.

[WillinGlossop]

Sun has made an appearance chillier out, 

still sopping wet out after downpours yesterday… will be fun leaf blowing later… 

hopefully upcoming week of drying out and colder so feeling autumnal again with frosts… 

[Chris.R]

It cleared up after 2 AM and we had a cold night in the end with a minimum of 3.8°C, by far the coldest of the autumn. 10.1 mm of rain from the showers between midnight and 2 AM.

At my other station in Crosby however the minimum was 7.0°C and there were showers all night.

[The Northern Ramper]

21 hours ago, dodge said:

We've had a lot of rain in the Oldham area today, this morning's rain just stuck around instead of clearing out of the way and then the torrential showers have just lined one after the other.  The road prone for flooding near Daisy Nook (Stannybrook Rd) has been closed and one in Grasscroft.

Certainly was chucking it down whilst we were in Oldham yesterday engagement ring shopping

[WillinGlossop]

Torrential downpour out of nowhere… gutters overflowing….