model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Chris..the GFS op was a wild outlier just before mid month.

But well backed up by the ECM op. Clearly not something that can be ignored.

[Methuselah]

Indeed Matt, and it's interesting that, after Day 10, the operational and control runs fly off in opposite directions, according to the GEFS 12Z temperature ensembles?

    

Something is a 

[mushymanrob]

This is the latest, and does suggest a slight shift towards higher pressure for the UK, but theres still a moderate Westerly upper flow and with a weak positive pressure anomaly over the UK .

To me this suggests slightly above average conditions with less precipitation, so as an average for this period, not bad and if it carries on developing then something more summery/sustained might be realised after mid month.

Their own confidence rating is 5/5 ....

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

But well backed up by the ECM op. Clearly not something that can be ignored.

For sure mate I wouldn't ignore it,but I will become a hell of a lot more concerned if the means start heading in the same direction though.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

This is the latest, and does suggest a slight shift towards higher pressure for the UK, but theres still a moderate Westerly upper flow and with a weak positive pressure anomaly over the UK .

To me this suggests slightly above average conditions with less precipitation, so as an average for this period, not bad and if it carries on developing then something more summery/sustained might be realised after mid month.

Their own confidence rating is 5/5 ....

Can't say I would argue with that...the extended mean highlights that weak positive pressure anomaly..

[mb018538]

I won’t get fully confident on this improvement until we start to see it at less than a week away on the models. Still hopeful, but the pessimist in me always feels the worst will happen!

[JayAlmeida]

Well after taking 6 days break from model watching due to being on me hols it's safe to say that not much has changed. Glad I missed out on the GFS nonsense over the last few days as it now appears to have corrected it's optimistic machinations for a more predictable August pattern. Mid month could still be more exciting as tonight's GEM suggests but we shall have to wait and see.

The GFS has really proven itself to be number 3 this summer way behind the GEM and ECM

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Shall we say for arguments sake,perhaps a more traditional NW/SE split...the trough is evident towards the NW but further South looks more respectable! That's my thoughts on the 12z mean anyway.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

Well after taking 6 days break from model watching due to being on me hols it's safe to say that not much has changed. Glad I missed out on the GFS nonsense over the last few days as it now appears to have corrected it's optimistic machinations for a more predictable August pattern. Mid month could still be more exciting as tonight's GEM suggests but we shall have to wait and see.

The GFS has really  proven itself to be number 3 this summer way behind the GEM and ECM

Yes and no mate...yes the ops are constantly throwing up fluctuating outcomes,but the means have remained pretty steadfast overall.

Hope you enjoyed your break...welcome back to the dog house

[Frosty.]

I’m just going to pretend all the GEFS 12z members look like these by mid month! ...

[Uncertainty]

57 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I wonder if this will have support though from the ens later? I'm looking forward to tonights EC46 moving forward..if all this goes t@ts up I'm retiring till the winter chase.

Hold your beer Matt! It’s looking good!

W2

W3

 

W4

W3 2m Temps

W4 2m Temps

Blocking regimes heavily favoured out until the end of August...

This trend has developed consistently over the past 4 runs of this model. The higher pressure anomaly around the N of the U.K. is newer to this run so not a consistent signal quite yet.

+ We finally have a settled back end of a GEM op, first time in quite awhile...

Also note:

- Noaa still  not convinced

Need this on board before popping the corks...

EC op also iffy, would really like to see 2 or 3 better runs before getting really excited.

Would be an excellent MO call if this came came off, we’re still easily at the point where the above could simply be a pipe dream. August has history and it usually ain’t great.

But don’t give up just yet @jon snow and @MATTWOLVES. There’s life in the old settled summer dog yet!

[damianslaw]

Heights look like building perhaps more strongly directly to our north as well as north east, which is forcing the atlantic trough on a more negative alignment and elongated - the theme of the summer so far, with cyclonic conditions taking over once again. It's turning into quite an unusual summer in this respect, with limited westerly patterns, either blocked, or cyclonic, with low pressure taking a more southerly track than normal. With this in mind, I wouldn't be surprised to see heights deflect the trough from anchoring on a more traditional SW-NE trajectory and we will thus either see:

- a blocked pattern resurface with the atlantic trough held out further west or

-the trough noses back in again after temporary settled conditions, as we have right now

Mind we are moving further out of the depths of summer, and seasonal wavelengths begin to favour more typical westerly trough pattern, but this has been so far, an abnormal year in this regard.

There is an old saying ' winter's back breaks middle of February.. conversely in similiar fashion I always think Summer's back breaks second week August..

Edited August 2, 2021 by damianslaw

[MATTWOLVES 3]

37 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Hold your beer Matt! It’s looking good!

W2

W3

 

W4

W3 2m Temps

W4 2m Temps

Blocking regimes heavily favoured out until the end of August...

This trend has developed consistently over the past 4 runs of this model. The higher pressure anomaly around the N of the U.K. is newer to this run so not a consistent signal quite yet.

+ We finally have a settled back end of a GEM op, first time in quite awhile...

Also note:

- Noaa still  not convinced

Need this on board before popping the corks...

EC op also iffy, would really like to see 2 or 3 better runs before getting really excited.

Would be an excellent MO call if this came came off, we’re still easily at the point where the above could simply be a pipe dream. August has history and it usually ain’t great.

But don’t give up just yet @jon snow and @MATTWOLVES. There’s life in the old settled summer dog yet!

Cheers mate...just been viewing the 46 mean and we keep that Low further N/W during next week,and the mean is basically making a lot less of it than the 12z ops runs were! Next week looking better,especially further South...this theme is holding firm through to the final 3rd(which is as far as it goes so far) there are some more unsettled members towards the mid month period,but also pretty good support for a much better mid and 2nd half of the month!

Like you say....plenty of hope and desire still left from both me,and the models..

Thanks for the update

[bluearmy]

tough to call this …..I’d say that today’s runs have seen a trend towards next weeks ridge failing with troughing dropping in …..but so uncertain that there’s no call to make as yet …..

[JayAlmeida]

GFS giving us the blue balls again? Don't get too excited guys  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

You've got to laugh after what the 12z served up! 18z says...stuff your Low,and finishes us on a big (HIGH) LOVE IT

[Daniel*]

An improvement is definitely coming let's be clear about that into early next week, currently favoured to not last entire week but with NAO going positive I'm hoping it will be a more fruitful backdrop with westerly flow moderating and easing away from our shores, second half of August could be good.

 

 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 0z mean improves a lot longer term, that mid august + signal for summery weather is still alive and kicking, there are some cracking perturbations!...I feel that even if it doesn’t settle down properly, there will still be very warm fine spells which is essentially what the Gfs 0z op shows!...  

 

 

[Guest]

GFS Ops run slightly better than last nights 12Z, ECM could go either way at 168Z but hopefully it doesn’t go like GEM with another big low diving down form the north west day 8-10. Feels like we are going to be playing silly buggers for a while with the models initially being too assertive with the push of high pressure from the southwest, could be a bit like how early July was modelled, could be a painful wait….

[northwestsnow]

EC rather keen on pushing the low towards the UK later on again this morning.

GFS less keen.

Different outcomes with GFS much more preferable.

Certainly by day 10 EC det is ugly but the damage is done around day 7 so the next 48 hours will be interesting.

 

 

Edited August 3, 2021 by northwestsnow

[Methuselah]

The GEFS 00Z ensembles are getting even more messy, towards mid-month, I feel? Och well, it's nae been a bad summer so far!

    

[Eagle Eye]

On 02/08/2021 at 20:41, Ed Stone said:

Indeed Matt, and it's interesting that, after Day 10, the operational and control runs fly off in opposite directions, according to the GEFS 12Z temperature ensembles?

    

Something is a 

I've found why it's a  lol

[Frosty.]

You only have to look at these ECM 0z ensemble mean charts to see the improvement in the mid / longer term from trough domination (relatively short term) followed by a gradual transition to more settled, at least across southern u k with increasing Azores influence...broad brushstrokes but there’s certainly an improvement..it’s undeniable!!!  

Edited August 3, 2021 by jon snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 hours ago, Alderc said:

GFS Ops run slightly better than last nights 12Z, ECM could go either way at 168Z but hopefully it doesn’t go like GEM with another big low diving down form the north west day 8-10. Feels like we are going to be playing silly buggers for a while with the models initially being too assertive with the push of high pressure from the southwest, could be a bit like how early July was modelled, could be a painful wait….

Do I detect an optimistic tone to your twang this morning Chris

6z run not bad mate...keeps the Low further North,with conditions improving towards the South.

Edited August 3, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Methuselah]

GFS 06Z at Day 10: