Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

All suggesting we may see the atlantic attempt to dislodge the cold block, but ultimately struggling, hence a SW- NE split, further south and west increased chance of milder air, possible heavy snow on the boundary i.e. central areas, but exactly where it sits, questionable.

can't really see this on models though, nothing really showed an attack from the SW

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

can't really see this on models though, nothing really showed an attack from the SW

Yes not in the foreseeable, but the longer term trend may be towards such a scenario, any atlantic attack ultimately thwarted agains the cold block.. 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 13 Jan - Monday 22 Jan

Cloudy, with patchy light rain or drizzle for central and southern areas, although many areas staying largely dry. Sunny spells and scattered showers, wintry in places, further north, most frequent along coasts. Winds will be light with temperatures likely to be a little below average. Into the start of the following week, it is likely to turn colder as northerly winds begin to develop across of the UK and bring a risk of snow showers, particularly across the north. Further bands of light rain and drizzle may also sink south at times. There is a very small risk of a period of snow across some southern areas for a time. Confidence is low through the rest of this period, but an increased chance of unsettled conditions returning from the west.

Tuesday 23 Jan - Tuesday 6 Feb

Through this period, there is an increased chance compared to normal of cold conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures, ice and snow. Frontal systems will probably move in from the west or southwest at times, bringing periods of rain or snow. Some drier, more settled interludes are also likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[joggs]

Sounds like they're not expecting anything major from next week's cold spell. Longevity of the cold spell next week doesn't look too clever. Might have to wait until Feb(strat warming) to shuffle the pack again once the nw blocking disappears.

Edited January 8 by joggs

[booferking]

1 minute ago, joggs said:

Sounds like they're not expecting anything major from next week's cold spell. Longevity of the cold spell next week doesn't look too clever. Might have to wait until Feb(strat warming) to shuffle the pack again once the nw blocking disappears.

It's looking very good buckle up

[Bricriu]

10 minutes ago, booferking said:

It's looking very good buckle up

He might be talking about areas further south. A northerly isn't great for them. It initially looks  good for us further  north, but the battleground situation could  mean we are wet rather  than white.  Although  you are even further north than me so snow  might be more likely for you in a battleground situation 

Edited January 8 by Bricriu

[Blessed Weather]

Just posted on X

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for the week ahead

Next week

• Cold northerly winds
• Snow showers
• Risk of some more widespread snow
• Some disruption possible

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/67912651

 

[DOdo]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Saturday 13 Jan - Monday 22 Jan

Cloudy, with patchy light rain or drizzle for central and southern areas, although many areas staying largely dry. Sunny spells and scattered showers, wintry in places, further north, most frequent along coasts. Winds will be light with temperatures likely to be a little below average. Into the start of the following week, it is likely to turn colder as northerly winds begin to develop across of the UK and bring a risk of snow showers, particularly across the north. Further bands of light rain and drizzle may also sink south at times. There is a very small risk of a period of snow across some southern areas for a time. Confidence is low through the rest of this period, but an increased chance of unsettled conditions returning from the west.

Tuesday 23 Jan - Tuesday 6 Feb

Through this period, there is an increased chance compared to normal of cold conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures, ice and snow. Frontal systems will probably move in from the west or southwest at times, bringing periods of rain or snow. Some drier, more settled interludes are also likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

Thats confusing. First of al they are saying risk of snow  showers and thene they are saying light rain or drizzle may move south??

[CoventryWeather]

Tuesdays MetO long range update.

Sunday 14 Jan - Tuesday 23 Jan

Cloud, with patchy light rain clearing central and southern areas initially. Thereafter, turning colder from the North, with brisk northerly winds likely developing widely across of the UK, bringing a risk of snow showers, most frequent across the north. Temperatures remaining cold, and a marked wind chill especially in the north. There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through this period, which could lead to a band of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country. Confidence is low with regards the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue to be a feature by night, with a risk of ice in places.

 

Wednesday 24 Jan - Wednesday 7 Feb

Through this period, the greatest likelihood is that high pressure will remain the more dominant influence on the weather, most likely centred somewhere to the northwest of the UK, with winds from the north or north-east perhaps more frequent than usual, with generally reduced amounts of precipitation. There is an increased chance, compared to normal of cold conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures. Even within a predominantly more settled pattern there is a still a chance that frontal systems could move in from the west or southwest at times, which while they would likely bring an interlude of slightly milder, more unsettled weather, for a time, this would also introduce a risk of snow and ice where it meets the colder air in place across the UK.

Yet the model thread is in meltdown for the odd run producing Atlantic weather...

[Frigid]

12 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

Tuesdays MetO long range update.

Sunday 14 Jan - Tuesday 23 Jan

Cloud, with patchy light rain clearing central and southern areas initially. Thereafter, turning colder from the North, with brisk northerly winds likely developing widely across of the UK, bringing a risk of snow showers, most frequent across the north. Temperatures remaining cold, and a marked wind chill especially in the north. There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through this period, which could lead to a band of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country. Confidence is low with regards the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue to be a feature by night, with a risk of ice in places.

 

Wednesday 24 Jan - Wednesday 7 Feb

Through this period, the greatest likelihood is that high pressure will remain the more dominant influence on the weather, most likely centred somewhere to the northwest of the UK, with winds from the north or north-east perhaps more frequent than usual, with generally reduced amounts of precipitation. There is an increased chance, compared to normal of cold conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures. Even within a predominantly more settled pattern there is a still a chance that frontal systems could move in from the west or southwest at times, which while they would likely bring an interlude of slightly milder, more unsettled weather, for a time, this would also introduce a risk of snow and ice where it meets the colder air in place across the UK.

Yet the model thread is in meltdown for the odd run producing Atlantic weather...

Much, much better update. Literally no instance of them saying a return to mild. It's expected to get a milder interlude but the main theme is cold. The last bit on yesterdays update 'Confidence is low through the rest of this period, but an increased chance of unsettled conditions returning from the west.'  has been removed in favour for cold.

[snowblind]

16 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Much, much better update. Literally no instance of them saying a return to mild. It's expected to get a milder interlude but the main theme is cold. The last bit on yesterdays update 'Confidence is low through the rest of this period, but an increased chance of unsettled conditions returning from the west.'  has been removed in favour for cold.

I agree a much better update. Glad that last bit has been removed. Now all we want is it to stay good or get better and not to change for the worse again.

[damianslaw]

A long time since the met office has been quite bullish on cold conditions holding out in the main against mild over a 4 week period, and in the heart of winter..

It suggests the met office see a southerly tracking jet for the foreseeable and any milder attempts ultimately will be thwarted by colder block to the north, not exclusively cold, on brief occasion the mild will make inroads but less so in the north.

It is a cold outlook overall. 

[Bricriu]

Fantastic outlook. Cold in the main, with any milder periods being brief. And the usually conservative  text mentions that disruptive  snow is possible too. Some places will surely  have a decent snow event or two  over the next couple of weeks, but of course it could  be heartbreak for others at times, but hopefully we will all see snow at some stage before winters out.

Edited January 9 by Bricriu

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for the week ahead

Next week

• Cold northerly winds
• Snow showers
• Risk of some more widespread snow
• Some disruption possible

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/67929203

 

[DOdo]

Wow Thats  a signifcant upgrade

[damianslaw]

Best outlook for potential significant snow going into third week Jan since 2013.

[Weatherman_93]

10c forecasted for Monday 22nd January in London. Long way off but hardly frigid.

[Rob 79812010]

Can someone throw some light on something please. Gefs ensembles mean showing that temps in last week of Jan barely getting to average. This is out to 26th. Beeb showing us up to 9 degrees by 23rd which doesn't seem to tally with anything I'm seeing. Do beeb get it so wrong sometimes and what do they base their forecasts on??

[Blessed Weather]

7 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Can someone throw some light on something please. Gefs ensembles mean showing that temps in last week of Jan barely getting to average. This is out to 26th. Beeb showing us up to 9 degrees by 23rd which doesn't seem to tally with anything I'm seeing. Do beeb get it so wrong sometimes and what do they base their forecasts on??

Hi Rob. I've moved your post over here where it's more appropriate for discussion. The question "what do they [BBC] base their forecasts on?" is answered in the article below. Basically, the BBC use MeteoGroup to provide their forecasts, and the article - written by MeteoGroup - reveals they use a blend of models and tweeks by their own meteorologists:

The making of : a weather forecast | by MeteoGroup | Medium

MEDIUM.COM

---

It might still be sunny outside, but the light is already changing; a rain shower is imminent. A rectangular, fenced-off area containing…

 

[Rob 79812010]

2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Hi Rob. I've moved your post over here where it's more appropriate for discussion. The question "what do they [BBC] base their forecasts on?" is answered in the article below. Basically, the BBC use MeteoGroup to provide their forecasts, and the article - written by MeteoGroup - reveals they use a blend of models and tweeks by their own meteorologists:

The making of : a weather forecast | by MeteoGroup | Medium

MEDIUM.COM

---

It might still be sunny outside, but the light is already changing; a rain shower is imminent. A rectangular, fenced-off area containing…

 

Thanks so much for that

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Colder next week. Milder in a fortnight

Wednesday 10 January to – Sunday 14 January

Temporarily becoming less cold

Monday 15 January to – Sunday 21 January

Unsettled and colder than normal

Monday 22 January to – Sunday 4 February

Possibly milder and wetter for a while

Further ahead

The next forecast update will take as further into February but we will also need to see if models are consistent on this expectation from next week onwards of a cold then milder then cold again sequence.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Monday 15 Jan - Wednesday 24 Jan

Often cloudy across clearing central and southern areas at first. Thereafter, turning colder from the North, with brisk northerly winds likely developing widely across of the UK, bringing a risk of snow showers, most frequent across the north. Temperatures remaining cold, and a marked wind chill especially in the north. There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through this period, which could lead to a band of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country. Confidence is low with regards the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue to be a feature by night, with a risk of ice in places.

Thursday 25 Jan - Thursday 8 Feb

Through this period, the greatest likelihood is that high pressure will remain the more dominant influence on the weather, most likely centred somewhere to the northwest of the UK, with winds from the north or north-east perhaps more frequent than usual, with generally reduced amounts of precipitation. There is an increased chance, compared to normal of cold conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures. Even within a predominantly more settled pattern there is a still a chance that frontal systems could move in from the west or southwest at times, which while they would likely bring an interlude of slightly milder, more unsettled weather, for a time, this would also introduce a risk of snow and ice where it meets the colder air in place across the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Saint coolio]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Monday 15 Jan - Wednesday 24 Jan

Often cloudy across clearing central and southern areas at first. Thereafter, turning colder from the North, with brisk northerly winds likely developing widely across of the UK, bringing a risk of snow showers, most frequent across the north. Temperatures remaining cold, and a marked wind chill especially in the north. There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through this period, which could lead to a band of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country. Confidence is low with regards the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue to be a feature by night, with a risk of ice in places.

Thursday 25 Jan - Thursday 8 Feb

Through this period, the greatest likelihood is that high pressure will remain the more dominant influence on the weather, most likely centred somewhere to the northwest of the UK, with winds from the north or north-east perhaps more frequent than usual, with generally reduced amounts of precipitation. There is an increased chance, compared to normal of cold conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures. Even within a predominantly more settled pattern there is a still a chance that frontal systems could move in from the west or southwest at times, which while they would likely bring an interlude of slightly milder, more unsettled weather, for a time, this would also introduce a risk of snow and ice where it meets the colder air in place across the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

The way that's written looks like a 5 year old got hold of chat GPT

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for the week ahead

Next week

• Staying cold
• Snow showers
• Risk of some more widespread snow?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/67933941