Midlands Regional Weather Discussion

[nobble]

Snow tomorrow ?

[MattStoke]

Models all flip to milder at the 11th hour. Ah for fudge sake!

Edited December 22, 2021 by MattStoke

[shunthebartlett92]

3 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Models all flip to milder at the 11th hour. Ah for fudge sake!

Excuse me for a minute…

 

 

 

 

 

ARGHHHHHHHHHHHHH

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That’s better.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[cyclonic happiness]

3 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Models all flip to milder at the 11th hour. Ah for fudge sake!

This is just as bad as that legendary failed easterly from 2005, only you'd think with the advancements of technology and software, they'd be 'better' at forecasting things, but they seem a lot worse than they were back when I started netweather in 2004, it's getting stupid now.

And what of the Met office hinting at colder weather after Christmas, but nothing showing up in any of the models, only Spanish winter plumes. 

Something has got to give

[shunthebartlett92]

10 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

This is just as bad as that legendary failed easterly from 2005, only you'd think with the advancements of technology and software, they'd be 'better' at forecasting things, but they seem a lot worse than they were back when I started netweather in 2004, it's getting stupid now.

And what of the Met office hinting at colder weather after Christmas, but nothing showing up in any of the models, only Spanish winter plumes. 

Something has got to give

Its incredibly punishing I’ve gotta say.
I missed the November snowfall when I was away in Ireland, and What’s worse is my other half has gone back home to Slovakia now, had two significant snowfalls in the past few days and by the time I get there (28th December) the Spanish plume could well be affecting most of western and Central Europe as well as us, meaning that it’s 8C when im there

I want to see snow this winter

 

Edited December 22, 2021 by shunthebartlett92

[Wingman Blue]

Agree with the above.  If the models are really that wrong is there any point in following them?

FWIW, red sky in the morning (shepherd’s pie for tea) and -2•C at sun-up.

Ignoring the froth and bluster about the 06Z for now, it’s usually mild-biased anyway, and still expecting some snow overnight Christmas Day-Boxing Day.

Still believe it’s too cold for an ‘average’ winter, whatever that is.

[MattStoke]

I’ve at least already seen some decent snowfalls this autumn/winter and was never likely to see anything down in London over Christmas but this is still so frustrating! Even the colder outlook further ahead has completely vanished from the model output, although that’s not to say it won’t return.

[Wingman Blue]

7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I’ve at least already seen some decent snowfalls this autumn/winter and was never likely to see anything down in London over Christmas but this is still so frustrating! Even the colder outlook further ahead has completely vanished from the model output, although that’s not to say it won’t return.

Don’t trust anything beyond 48 hours seems the form horse at the moment!

[shunthebartlett92]

Last winter really was nirvana for the West Midlands, we were spoilt rotten. This is certainly the hangover party! Ah well, January and February to come still 

Edited December 22, 2021 by shunthebartlett92

[Gord]

It's been a really strange build up to Christmas this year.

Initially, there was a chance of a cold and frosty high.

Nope...you can have a gloomy nothing one instead.

But it might be replaced with some cold, wintry unsettled weather.

Nope...you can have rain and horribly raw and chilly instead.

But that might just transfer to cold air spilling from the north after Christmas.

Nope...you can have mild air from the south instead.

We've seen lots of teases from the models in the past. But this one feels particularly mean because it feels like a few of them in a row...and it also felt like yesterday that the professional forecasts were just about to turn in favour of something exciting.

But the Met Office forecasts I've seen and read never really got on board with what we might have been hoping for. Just a few hints.

So to top it all off...I don't even feel like I'm justified to feel grumpy about it!

Ah well...just keep remembering we had that really decent late November snow.

 

[RobR]

The fact all these years of computer upgrades and we still experience such wild flips is crazy. I guess mother nature does her own thing right up until the wire and no amount of forecasting can predict that.

 

[Gord]

I also think emotions are particularly high this year with everything else going on in the World.

So much uncertainty...and not just in the weather.

 

[shunthebartlett92]

5 minutes ago, Gord said:

I also think emotions are particularly high this year with everything else going on in the World.

So much uncertainty...and not just in the weather.

 

Exactly my thoughts, just be nice to be excited about something decent (socks in the Christmas stocking just don’t quite cut it)

[Echobase 2.0]

Keep the faith until this little guy says otherwise, I've been watching him closely and he's way more reliable than any model right now! 

[Benny123]

Could we see a bit of sleet/snow from this feature this morning? Current temp is 0.9c near Stoke on Trent with dew points at -0.6c

[phil b]

44 minutes ago, Benny123 said:

Could we see a bit of sleet/snow from this feature this morning? Current temp is 0.9c near Stoke on Trent with dew points at -0.6c

Unfortunately not its cold down here at the surface but at 1400m it's a barmy 6C 

Edited December 22, 2021 by phil b

[shunthebartlett92]

Weirdly feel more at ease knowing that it’s almost certainly a lost cause, rather than fretting over the location of the band and timings that’s the one positive to come out of this!

[Wingman Blue]

Good afternoon Midlands. Currently the heat of the day down in Hornton is a balmy 2.0•C.  That’s after 12 hours of frost overnight and now with a Baltic breeze.

Be interesting when that Saharan surge gets here. 

[nobble]

Absolutely freezing out there !!!

[BarometerCat]

4 hours ago, Echobase 2.0 said:

Keep the faith until this little guy says otherwise, I've been watching him closely and he's way more reliable than any model right now! 

 SS -  Best model ever!  

 

2c Here earlier. Dull day, Not 'mild' right now either.   

[Fozfoster]

Wow what a turn around 

NO COLD AND NO SNOW FOR NEXT 10 Days ish. ‍

[Benny123]

5 hours ago, phil b said:

Unfortunately not its cold down here at the surface but at 1400m it's a barmy 6C 

PPN increased upon approach to Stoke, as did the temps. Ended up with cold rain, 1.6c. Possibly warmer aloft, didn’t even get sleet just cold rain. 

[BarometerCat]

My location:

 Bank! 

I would take it..

Still not writing anything off or throwing in towels etc.. its just weather and we might get some interesting times ahead.  For Christmas day and Boxing day, it's short range only now I think.  I cannot see either day being 'mild' entirely.   It might be wet but mild?

 

[MattStoke]

GEM has snow widely across the Midlands on Boxing Day, and even for me in London.

If anyone should know snow, it’s those Canadians

[Gord]

So now there’s absolutely no chance of snow…does anyone know when the sun might return to our patch?

This really is the worst kind of winter weather for me this week. 
 

Wish I’d gone up a mountain while we had that inversion last weekend now!