Midlands Regional Weather Discussion

[Andypvfc]

9 hours ago, davehsug said:

I would argue that we get snow frequently, but not often heavily. Our source for the heaviest falls was always a North Westerly, I remember over a foot in 1981, but even these have decreased in severity in recent years. We weren't hit badly even by 1963 snow-wise. 

So, frequent snow yes, deep snow cover rarely.

That was the point I was making mate, yeah we get very small amounts often, but I'd rather have less of them and the occasionally memorable dump. 

Take the other week, yeah we have a cover but in 2 days it had gone so just seems pointless. Surely if we are going get Snow we want a massive fall that lasts for several weeks in a severe Frost, as we used to get in the 70's and 80's. This is why I don't like the Snow to rain events as what's the point if its washed away straight away. I demand the 6 foot drifts up Kidsgrove bank again

Edited December 19, 2021 by Andypvfc

[Midlander]

Well, that was an exhilarating cold chase, but the game has ended for me. 
I certainly will not forget the blizzard across Central England that was shown on yesterday GFS18Z; that was something special to see.
I now look ahead to the stratosphere and hope an SSW can redeem this lost chance.

[MattStoke]

Meh. The model output is quite a let down for Christmas after flattering to deceive. Fairly confident though that it won’t be long before more genuine cold/wintry opportunities arise from reading Tamara’s expert post in the model thread earlier.

Edited December 19, 2021 by MattStoke

[Dancerwithwings]

8 minutes ago, Midlander said:

Well, that was an exhilarating cold chase, but the game has ended for me. 
I certainly will not forget the blizzard across Central England that was shown on yesterday GFS18Z; that was something special to see.
I now look ahead to the stratosphere and hope an SSW can redeem this lost chance.

A lost chance, Emmm.... it’s 6 days away

Also SSW can take a number of weeks for us to see it’s effects and it hasn’t happened yet anyway

[Dancerwithwings]

18 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Meh. The model output is quite a let down for Christmas after flattering to deceive. Fairly confident though that it won’t be long before more genuine cold/wintry opportunities arise from reading Tamara’s expert post in the model thread earlier.

Agreed Matt, the cold seems to be going further North on every run...but we’ll see

Regarding Tamara and her post was and always also the EC extended outlook is promising, showing heights in the Northern parts ( Scandinavia & Greenland ) throughout January, bringing eastern and northern candy

My pint is always half full

[Dancerwithwings]

My temps have risen to 3.8c... as the foggy conditions I’ve had all day have cleared

[Neil Harris]

Last week I backed a Midlands white Christmas at 4/1.. It's now 6/4.. 

Leeds is odds on... Keep the faith

[MattStoke]

Christmas Day forecast seems to be a never ending saga.

Suddenly, the GFS is the coldest and most wintry whilst the UKMO and ECM go milder.

 

 

Edited December 20, 2021 by MattStoke

[MattStoke]

And from the GFS 6z.

The never ending story.

[Benny123]

2 hours ago, MattStoke said:

And from the GFS 6z.

The never ending story.

Still the outlier, but I wouldn’t be surprised given the amount of chopping n changing! 

[Wingman Blue]

Overnight the temperatures rose to 4.2•C, high today of 3.7

These are not average December high temperatures.

We won’t know until tomorrow at the earliest what weather Christmas Eve will bring, and as for snow, wait until you can see the whites of their flakes.

As far as I can see it, the Midlands is as well placed as anywhere in the British Isles for a dump ( of snow, that is!)

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12Z GFS not as good, seems to move front south of here, trend I feel on next few runs is south

[MattStoke]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

12Z GFS not as good, seems to move front south of here, trend I feel on next few runs is south

While the ECM has milder air and fronts too far north.

Middle ground would be nice!

[Dancerwithwings]

It’s all.....how do we say it, headache time for the professionals...even a hundred miles makes so much difference, it’ll be Thursday if you ask me before we have any kind of certainties, but certainly interesting times atm

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

While the ECM has milder air and fronts too far north.

Middle ground would be nice!

like the GFS 06Z, very good for us

[Midlander]

MOGREPS 12Z: Headline: trended colder

The average for the 2 temps (25th December 15Z) readings for the Midlands were as follows:

0Z Average temp 5.5*C

06Z Average temp 6.02*C

12Z Average temp 3.81*C

 

Definitely ending the day in a better position with this model

 

Edited December 20, 2021 by Midlander

[shunthebartlett92]

Do feel its 'all to play for' still, but you can see a strong trend developing in the models perhaps by wednesday afternoon/thursday morning on how christmas day will play out. I do fear there's too much milder air in the mix, markedly milder air at that, this will just tip things out of favour away from elevated areas of the north of the UK, but i could be wrong. 

[Wingman Blue]

personally, I view the models as suggestions, rather than firm predictions.  Taking those predictions together and adding observations such as ground and sea temperatures gives me a broad idea of what will happen, though the timing may be a day or two out.

As for detail such as actual precipitation, whether snow, hail or rain, my outside temperature will give me a likelihood of whic but not when.  Even radar is not more than 80% accurate.

As I have said previously, the models are still all over the shop, I believe because the signals are predicting exceptional weather.

I may well be very wrong but that is why talk of cold failing doesn’t wash with me, this side of Christmas, if not this month.

[davehsug]

2 hours ago, shunthebartlett92 said:

Do feel its 'all to play for' still, but you can see a strong trend developing in the models perhaps by wednesday afternoon/thursday morning on how christmas day will play out. I do fear there's too much milder air in the mix, markedly milder air at that, this will just tip things out of favour away from elevated areas of the north of the UK, but i could be wrong. 

Yes. I think when this all started, the colder air was here before the fronts arrived, followed by a big freeze from the North & East. Now we have a couple of fronts bringing in milder air before we even get to the time of interest. The uppers are unimpressive and at best it looks like a rain to wintry mix if it happens at all. Of course, that comes with the usual caveats, it is a very difficult synoptic set-up and a situation that is rarely modelled well, especially when so much of the forcing isn't that strong. It would however, need something very dramatic and rather unforseen to put us back where we thought we were headed a few days ago. Twas ever thus!

Edited December 20, 2021 by davehsug

[Dancerwithwings]

GFS 18z is Still Christmas shopping with some kind of a wintry outlook whether is the big day or Boxing Day.

[weirpig]

6 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

GFS 18z is Still Christmas shopping with some kind of a wintry outlook whether is the big day or Boxing Day.

Yep very much still in the game. I really do think a rain to snow event here. Low will be further south come the big day. 

[Dancerwithwings]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yep very much still in the game. I really do think a rain to snow event here. Low will be further south come the big day. 

Agreed, hopefully it’ll sink into Europe...pulling in the cold uppers from the East

[MattStoke]

Still no model agreement for Christmas Day. A few models have the cold air far south with fronts barely into England. The GFS has fronts bringing some snow to parts of the Midlands. The ECM has the cold air far to the north with rain only.

Sigh! On we go!

[davehsug]

Pleased to see a little more realism in this thread at least. There's some very irresponsible stuff being posted in the mad thread. A clear case of a little learning being a dangerous thing.

We're still not much wiser as to what's going to happen only 4 days away, but there are going to be some very disappointed people, and some very happy ones. Place your bets!

[MattStoke]

Load of absolute nonsense in there this morning about model performance.