Midlands Regional Weather Discussion

[MattStoke]

Dare to dream!

Almost makes me want to stay in Stoke for Christmas instead of heading down to rainy old London

A long way to run on this one, though!

[matty40s]

Grey again today. 

[shunthebartlett92]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

Dare to dream!

Almost makes me want to stay in Stoke for Christmas instead of heading down to rainy old London

A long way to run on this one, though!

Uninspiring temperatures mind, lets hope that's a little skewiff too!

[Wingman Blue]

On the face of it, another dry, dull day.

But the daily high has been progressively dropping as the week’s wore on.  12•C Sunday, 8.5•C today.

If it continues at the same rate, by Xmas Eve it’ll be a high of 3.5C.

Snow 28th December anyone?

[BarometerCat]

3 minutes ago, Wingman Blue said:

On the face of it, another dry, dull day.

But the daily high has been progressively dropping as the week’s wore on.  12•C Sunday, 8.5•C today.

If it continues at the same rate, by Xmas Eve it’ll be a high of 3.5C.

Snow 28th December anyone?

Trending down to Christmas Eve, colder before than maybe too.  

[MattStoke]

On 15/12/2021 at 08:04, MattStoke said:

Recent model trends and the latest ECM 46 and 30 day model runs for the period just after Christmas scream ‘battleground’, and we know what that can mean for the Midlands….

Add the latest Met Office update to that!

Saturday 1 Jan - Saturday 15 Jan

Any unsettled conditions during the start of this period are most likely to be confined to west and south-western regions, where longer spells of rain, and perhaps areas of snow, are possible with occasional strong winds. Through January, cold air is signalled to develop and remain in place across parts of Europe. From here, there is a chance that an easterly wind could bring periods of cold weather, and associated wintry hazards, to the UK. Milder spells are still likely, with these potentially bringing strong winds, heavy rain, and potential snow. Overall, the period is slightly more likely to be colder than normal although a lot of uncertainty surrounds this.

[Arctic Hare]

At least it looks like being more interesting than the current weather. Incredibly boring for the last few days. Useable for getting outdoor things done of course, but as Christmas approaches there are fewer of those for many people. Personally expecting not much of an event for our region, bar the usual suspects like the Peak District, but that's just the usual pessimism. Could be wrong!

[Benny123]

Almost at a record for me, 1039Hpa here.. even that isn't enough to budge this gloomy grey blanket.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Benny123 said:

Almost at a record for me, 1039Hpa here.. even that isn't enough to budge this gloomy grey blanket.

Will make it worse!

[Benny123]

10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Will make it worse!

Yup, especially with humidity at 96%. 

[MattStoke]

A very wintry ECM for the Midlands with several sliders from around Christmas Eve onwards.

Lashing of cold rain from the GFS.

Still much to be resolved.

The GFS does though bring a brief spell of Midlands snow on Christmas Eve Eve.

 

And a major snowstorm on the 29th. Way off in la la land but in keeping with the general ‘battleground’ pattern of southerly tracking low pressure systems into cold air.

Edited December 18, 2021 by MattStoke

[phil b]

On 18/12/2021 at 07:39, MattStoke said:

A very wintry ECM for the Midlands with several sliders from around Christmas Eve onwards.

Lashing of cold rain from the GFS.

Still much to be resolved.

The GFS does though bring a brief spell of Midlands snow on Christmas Eve Eve.

 

And a major snowstorm on the 29th. Way off in la la land but in keeping with the general ‘battleground’ pattern of southerly tracking low pressure systems into cold air.

Will be amazing if it come's off!!

[BarometerCat]

Feels cold today, overcast and what I consider typical winter weather IMBY wise.    Looking forward to next week, maybe colder yet and models possibly hinting at something of interest for those in the Midlands of a cold persuasion.  

ECM 0z and latest GFS interesting still despite roller coaster of mod thread.  Feeling positive! 

 

 

[Dancerwithwings]

4 hours ago, B-C said:

Feels cold today, overcast and what I consider typical winter weather IMBY wise.    Looking forward to next week, maybe colder yet and models possibly hinting at something of interest for those in the Midlands of a cold persuasion.  

ECM 0z and latest GFS interesting still despite roller coaster of mod thread.  Feeling positive! 

 

 

Great model watching atm leading up to the big day  with so much potential is something I honestly can’t remember, normally it’s just mild and wet and we are all hunting at this point for cold in January....

BUT !!! not this year

Pleased!!!...  let it snow...let it snow....let it snow  ️

[Dancerwithwings]

This relates to the GEM output

I stated this in the model thread earlier 

Back in November the GEM stood its ground and was the first to show the potential for a wintry outlook 10 days out, while the other models took time to catch up, and the GEM got it spot on, so hopefully it does the same this time round

For me I’ve broke up now so this forthcoming week will be very interesting indeed.

Eyes down and bring it on

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Trends not great on the 12Z's, what was expected really, snow events just south of the M4, while we're freezin' our balls off in dry weather, while Bournemouth etc get buried

[Shezale coventry]

Evening gang..everyone seems to be jumping for joy in the mod thread but hows things looking for us in the midlands?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just everyone is 

 

 

[MattStoke]

Models trending towards more significant cold setting it. Poorer for Snow-on-Trent, ironically but a seemingly dry outlook can end up snowy if little disturbances pop up at short notice. That’s something models wouldn’t pick up on at this range.

Edited December 18, 2021 by MattStoke

[shunthebartlett92]

10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Trends not great on the 12Z's, what was expected really, snow events just south of the M4, while we're freezin' our balls off in dry weather, while Bournemouth etc get buried

True, and youd feel the default would be for that low to move southwards as we edge nearer, although as Matt says, get the cold in and disturbances can pop up at short notice!

[Dancerwithwings]

20 minutes ago, Shezale coventry said:

Evening gang..everyone seems to be jumping for joy in the mod thread but hows things looking for us in the midlands?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just everyone is 

 

 

Nowt there....unless your blank post is showing a white out

[Wingman Blue]

Daily high continuing to drop here. Today only 7.2•C.

Low cloud - rather than fog - most of the day, damp, drizzly now which will further chill the earth.

Models still all over the shop.

The final 72Hr approach to Christmas looking good.

[Dancerwithwings]

17 minutes ago, Wingman Blue said:

Daily high continuing to drop here. Today only 7.2•C.

Low cloud - rather than fog - most of the day, damp, drizzly now which will further chill the earth.

Models still all over the shop.

The final 72Hr approach to Christmas looking good.

I wouldn't say it’s all over the shop, that’s a little harsh methinks, the med data is a cold output, but yes let’s get to 72h first and we’ll see, especially if we’ll see a flake or two

[Snowy L]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Trends not great on the 12Z's, what was expected really, snow events just south of the M4, while we're freezin' our balls off in dry weather, while Bournemouth etc get buried

Has it ever been dry though on the boundary between high and low pressure? It never happens, there are always showers and disturbances about. Even the 2 day cold spell last month showed that.

[Dancerwithwings]

I’ll have a bit of that GFS pub run

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

I’ll have a bit of that GFS pub run

Continuous snowfall throughout Christmas and Boxing Day. An historic blizzard that absolutely buries the Midlands.

About as perfect a battleground snow event one could ever see getting modelled. Shame it probably won’t play out like that.

Edited December 18, 2021 by MattStoke