Midlands Regional Weather Discussion

[I remember Atlantic 252]

22 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Load of absolute nonsense in there this morning about model performance. 

GFS seems to suggest rain turning to snow, but late on Xmas day, and Boxing day looks a bit too far south for us

[Wingman Blue]

1 hour ago, davehsug said:

Pleased to see a little more realism in this thread at least. There's some very irresponsible stuff being posted in the mad thread. A clear case of a little learning being a dangerous thing.

We're still not much wiser as to what's going to happen only 4 days away, but there are going to be some very disappointed people, and some very happy ones. Place your bets!

Well put. Probably snow in the. Midlands within the week but where?

 

[MattStoke]

North Midlands, late Christmas Day into Boxing Day seems the most likely but still much uncertainty.

[Midlander]

We'll see how things progress over the coming days, depending on the timing of the precip it is still possible, although probably not probable that places could record a falling snowflake during Xmas day. 

Although at the moment it shows a snow to rain event, I doubt this will be the final solution 

 

[jimben]

Far more sense here than in the model thread for which I thank you. 

[shunthebartlett92]

I have to be honest, after some initial excitement from the UKMO and GFS 00z'ers i think im starting to realise the chances of a white christmas/boxing day are trickling away now. Stokies you are in a better position as it stands, but i think its just too marginal for down here. Still 4 days away but what seemed quite promising at first now looks like a wintry mix perhaps for the best positioned places and rain for others. The one year it wouldve been extra special to see some falling snow on Christmas day, bah humbug!

[BarometerCat]

No matter what the models are showing for Christmas Day and Boxing day, I think shorter range models will provide most clues of whether or not anyone will see snow. Probs even down to radar and looking out the window.

Colder air is close and moves southwards on Christmas day, that trend remains so far.   It's not a bad place to be compared to what we could be seeing..

The mod thread is as contrary as always...fun times indeed.

[Wingman Blue]

The Griceland block presses ( not oozes ) south west Christmas Eve into Christmas Day.  Cold moves down on a north-westerly track that evening dispensing slight snow until it hits the ‘warm’ air sometime early Boxing Day and then it slows almost to a stop.

From that opinion - and it is only an opinion - I would say that virtually all of the Midlands north of my location would not be in the ‘warm’ and wet.

And as some on the models board have said, next week looks haywire.

Happy lamppost watching to come!

[weirpig]

This will be a midlands event. There I've said it 

[MattStoke]

Just now, weirpig said:

This will be a midlands event. There I've said it 

I think the North Midlands looks best placed. Risk decreasing as one moves further south. Still much model disagreement though. Forecasting snow is so difficult at more than 24-48 hours out at the best of times never mind in such a complex setup as this one!

[weirpig]

Just now, MattStoke said:

I think the North Midlands looks best placed. Risk decreasing as one moves further south. Still much model disagreement though. Forecasting snow is so difficult at more than 24-48 hours out at the best of times never mind in such a complex setup as this one!

Spot on I just can't see the track being what we see. And as you and me know these systems most of the time edge south overtime and closer to the day 50 to  100 miles south will be the track. Of course I could be wrong. Great viewing though 

[MattStoke]

Just now, weirpig said:

Spot on I just can't see the track being what we see. And as you and me know these systems most of the time edge south overtime and closer to the day 50 to  100 miles south will be the track. Of course I could be wrong. Great viewing though 

100 miles further south to me in London?

Think I’ll be watching this one from afar. Would though be nice to return to some wintry scenes after Christmas!

[weirpig]

Just now, MattStoke said:

100 miles further south to me in London?

Think I’ll be watching this one from afar. Would though be nice to return to some wintry scenes after Christmas!

Geography and distance never been my strong point. About 25 to 50 miles? 

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Geography and distance never been my strong point. About 25 to 50 miles? 

It’s about 140 miles between my house in Longton and my Dad’s house in Harrow. 

Quite used to London being snowless so not too bothered that I’ll likely not see a flake down there. Their winters are awful compared to Stoke’s.

Edited December 21, 2021 by MattStoke

[weirpig]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It’s about 140 miles between my house in Longton and my Dad’s house in Harrow. 

Quite used to London being snowless so not too bothered that I’ll likely not see a flake down there. Their winters are awful compared to Stoke’s.

Yep the south and anywhere near  the coast is shocking for snow. Midlands is probably one of the best. Could be third year running we get snow just after Christmas

Edited December 21, 2021 by weirpig

[Joe Snow]

13 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It’s about 140 miles between my house in Longton and my Dad’s house in Harrow. 

Quite used to London being snowless so not too bothered that I’ll likely not see a flake down there. Their winters are awful compared to Stoke’s.

Well maybe to Stoke’s Matt - I actually saw deeper snow when I lived in Finchley N London suburbs back in the BFTE than anytime here in South Cheshire. Snow is more regular up here (v rare to go a winter without some snow whereas snowless winters are increasingly common in Greater London) but when they do get heavy snow down in London & the SE it’s usually in the form of a big dumping and see therefore much more disruption. London & SE summers are great too - 23-24c on average in July/ August , occasionally hot & often humid with big Spanish plume thunderstorms. Beats the 19c overcast days that plague our summers up here. 

Edited December 21, 2021 by Joe Snow

[MattStoke]

22 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:

Well maybe to Stoke’s Matt - I actually saw deeper snow when I lived in Finchley N London suburbs back in the BFTE than anytime here in South Cheshire. Snow is more regular up here (v rare to go a winter without some snow whereas snowless winters are increasingly common in Greater London) but when they do get heavy snow down in London & the SE it’s usually in the form of a big dumping and see therefore much more disruption. London & SE summers are great too - 23-24c on average in July/ August , occasionally hot & often humid with big Spanish plume thunderstorms. Beats the 19c overcast days that plague our summers up here. 

Stoke gets a lot of snowfalls from very marginal conditions but very little from more severe/significant U.K. cold spells. London is the complete opposite. Very few snowfalls that only occur when there’s a really significant cold spell and everything falls just perfectly. Many winters I barely saw a frost in London never mind a flake of snow! Stoke is Arctic compared to there. Did though see amazing conditions when I lived in Kent during the 2009 and 2010 winters while Stoke probably saw little.

London’s summers are much warmer but I don’t think Stoke does too badly. Just much wetter.

Edited December 21, 2021 by MattStoke

[Wingman Blue]

Heat of the day in a mist and fog-free Hornton fractionally higher than yesterday at 4.3•C

Gauge dropping, maybe damper tomorrow?

[BarometerCat]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Yep the south and anywhere near  the coast is shocking for snow. Midlands is probably one of the best. Could be third year running we get snow just after Christmas

channelling the positivity in here!    I think it is difficult wading through forecast/opinion on the mod thread where a lot of IMBYism takes over.  I think you are spot on re the Midlands, we have seen snow in recent years where people have foretold it was not going to happen etc..  

[Midlander]

MOGREPS 06Z Headline: Trended milder
 

Yesterday average for the 2 reading's in the Midlands (Time= 25th 15Z) were:
0Z Average temp 5.5*C

06Z Average temp 6.02*C

12Z Average temp 3.81*C

Today's 06Z average temp 5.5*C

[weirpig]

Just now, B-C said:

channelling the positivity in here!    I think it is difficult wading through forecast/opinion on the mod thread where a lot of IMBYism takes over.  I think you are spot on re the Midlands, we have seen snow in recent years where people have foretold it was not going to happen etc..  

Just my opinion but the snow line is going to be close to the midlands  it's either going to a rain to sleet event or rain to snow  of course there are more important things to worry about. But it's fun to keep an eye out  

[weirpig]

Just now, Midlander said:

MOGREPS 06Z Headline: Trended milder
 

Yesterday average for the 2 reading's in the Midlands (Time= 25th 15Z) were:
0Z Average temp 5.5*C

06Z Average temp 6.02*C

12Z Average temp 3.81*C

Today's 06Z average temp 5.5*C

That shows massive uncertainty as with most models. Many show us on the boundary of cold warm air. 

[Midlander]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

That shows massive uncertainty as with most models. Many show us on the boundary of cold warm air. 

Yeah I agree high risk but high reward! 

[Gord]

Well I'm already in a bit of a grump weather wise that this winter high turned out to be a gloomy and chilly one and not a frosty and crisp one.

The white Christmas chances for the weekend I wasn't really buying anyway. I hadn't seen one forecast that's aimed at plebs like me go for it anyway.

I think I just need a bit of sunshine...that'll do for now! Just finding the current weather a bit grim and really don't want it to carry on being grim with gloomy and wet conditions from a low pressure replacing the current quiet gloom.

It's a really good job we had that snowfall at the end of November...although it takes away my right to be grumpy!

 

Edited December 21, 2021 by Gord

[shunthebartlett92]

This provided a very nice break from the norm the other day, was very foggy for most of my drive and then clear blue skies afterwards, but any ideas where this might be west midlanders?

Edited December 21, 2021 by shunthebartlett92