Midlands Regional Weather Discussion

[BarometerCat]

Just now, Dancerwithwings said:

I’ll have a bit of that GFS pub run

 

Looking good on Boxing day

It's a way out yet but the signs are there!  

 

[shunthebartlett92]

Just now, B-C said:

 

Looking good on Boxing day

It's a way out yet but the signs are there!  

 

Let’s see the hangover in the morning although this southwards modelling, building a lovely trough into the continent is great for longevity I’ll be in Slovakia for new year if I’m allowed, so hoping that trough can hang around on the continent pretty please!

[Dancerwithwings]

Matt & B-C....lovely to see the potential that’s possible....but yes a long way to go...Merry Christmas

[davehsug]

10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Continuous snowfall throughout Christmas and Boxing Day. An historic blizzard that absolutely buries the Midlands.

About as perfect a battleground snow event one could ever see getting modelled. Shame it probably won’t play out like that.

Even if it did get here - which I doubt, don't forget what happened a few years ago, when places West, East & South of Stoke got loads of snow and we barely had a cover. We're very much in a rain shadow from this type of set up.

Anyhoo all hypothetical, it will end up cliping the South coast if it gets to the UK at all .

Edited December 18, 2021 by davehsug

[Shezale coventry]

If the pub run is correct i will eat my hat..these lows are to far north or to far south for us in the midlands! 

 

 

 

[MattStoke]

Raw GFS data for Stoke-on-Trent. Just 53mm (roughly 53cm) of snow.

[BarometerCat]

cold out to New years via 18z GFS so far..  certainly worth following at the moment.. 

Edited December 18, 2021 by B-C
typos

[MKN]

To far out to consider any snowfall yet. Get to Tuesday and if it's a possibility for Saturday/Sunday then start to take notice. Set yourself up for a dissapointment otherwise as UK snow events are almost impossible to pinpoint at range. Even inside 48 hours they can shift 30-50 miles quite easily. 

[NorthantsSnow]

Damn, that pub run is a corker. The best charts I've seen for this area in a long time.

You just know it will be corrected south in subsequent runs. But at least a cold spell looks assured now, and we should get something.

[Andypvfc]

6 hours ago, davehsug said:

Even if it did get here - which I doubt, don't forget what happened a few years ago, when places West, East & South of Stoke got loads of snow and we barely had a cover. We're very much in a rain shadow from this type of set up.

Anyhoo all hypothetical, it will end up cliping the South coast if it gets to the UK at all .

We never get much around Stoke mate. I know Matt enjoys it and says we have a bit, but as he says even the bit we do get is more than he was used to down London.

Yeah we may get the occasional 4 inches now and again but I don't really class that as a massive amount compared to what we used to get through the 70s and 80s. In them days you were guranteed 6 foot drifts at the top of Kidsgrove bank from Snow events, whereas now the massive Snow events always miss us as we are either too far North, too far South, too far West or too far East as you say. 

Let's hope one year we can drop lucky and get 25cm plus that sticks around for several weeks with a deep Freeze.

[MattStoke]

Amazes me when people say Stoke doesn’t get much snow. On average, it’s one of the snowiest areas of the U.K. outside of the mountainous areas. Snow can fall with the wind coming from any direction and the setup being far from significant in terms of deep cold. In an easterly wind, the north of Stoke is quite sheltered by the Staffordshire Moorlands and Peak District but my part of Stoke isn’t. Longton got a lot of snow last winter when a front came up from the south into cold easterly winds whilst further north saw little.

If anything less than 4 inches of snow lasting weeks is insignificant, then large swathes of the U.K. hasn’t seen significant snow in decades…..

Edited December 19, 2021 by MattStoke

[Wingman Blue]

Good morning all! Here in Hornton the cooling continues, the overnight mist disappeared before dawn and a frost crept in… closely followed by freezing fog.

Currently now -0.6•C

it’s getting colder…

[davehsug]

2 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Amazes me when people say Stoke doesn’t get much snow. On average, it’s one of the snowiest areas of the U.K. outside of the mountainous areas. Snow can fall with the wind coming from any direction and the setup being far from significant in terms of deep cold. In an easterly wind, the north of Stoke is quite sheltered by the Staffordshire Moorlands and Peak District but my part of Stoke isn’t. Longton got a lot of snow last winter when a front came up from the south into cold easterly winds whilst further north saw little.

If anything less than 4 inches of snow lasting weeks is insignificant, then large swathes of the U.K. hasn’t seen significant snow in decades…..

I would argue that we get snow frequently, but not often heavily. Our source for the heaviest falls was always a North Westerly, I remember over a foot in 1981, but even these have decreased in severity in recent years. We weren't hit badly even by 1963 snow-wise. 

So, frequent snow yes, deep snow cover rarely.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 hours ago, NorthantsSnow said:

Damn, that pub run is a corker. The best charts I've seen for this area in a long time.

You just know it will be corrected south in subsequent runs. But at least a cold spell looks assured now, and we should get something.

GFS 00Z moved it north which is surprising! 11 degrees for big day, shows we're still in the game as I think low will be too far south

[Dancerwithwings]

Currently...Foggy

Temp 2.6c...DP 2.4c....humidity 99%

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Dancerwithwings said:

Currently...Foggy

Temp 2.6c...DP 2.4c....humidity 99%

Aye, seen it already, ooops

[MattStoke]

18 minutes ago, davehsug said:

I would argue that we get snow frequently, but not often heavily. Our source for the heaviest falls was always a North Westerly, I remember over a foot in 1981, but even these have decreased in severity in recent years. We weren't hit badly even by 1963 snow-wise. 

So, frequent snow yes, deep snow cover rarely.

Agree that the amounts of snow aren’t huge. They rarely are for anywhere in the U.K. away from the highest ground. It does though snow often here and sometimes in decent amounts of a few inches.

Edited December 19, 2021 by MattStoke

[Dancerwithwings]

The mist and fog here is really struggling to lift, it thinned slightly earlier but came back again and colder.....its just 1.9c 

[Wingman Blue]

1 hour ago, Dancerwithwings said:

The mist and fog here is really struggling to lift, it thinned slightly earlier but came back again and colder.....its just 1.9c 

We had a brief ‘high’ of 3.1.C, now dropped back to 2.8.

Last Sunday’s high was 12.1•C

Its getting colder, faster…

[Gord]

Bit of a rubbish winter high this one. Foggy, chilly, the ground has gone muddy again after it started to dry out a little after last week's mild spell.

I'm no expert on model reading so I always go by what the actual professionals say...with the caveat that they can find forecasts difficult too.

Met Office appear to being going with the milder option for Christmas after this week's colder temperatures. So as far as I'm concerned...that's what I'll be expecting at this point in time.

As a keen dog walker, it's not so much the decrease in chances of snow that upsets me, it's the potential increase of mud! Would love a good frozen ground to walk on!

Edited December 19, 2021 by Gord

[phil b]

Temp has slowly been dropping throughout the day here, Now at 1.1C Almost freezing fog. Nice and sunny above it though!!

 

 

Edited December 19, 2021 by phil b

[Dancerwithwings]

I’ve Just got back from the shops, it amazes me how some drivers don’t put ones car lights on in this foggy weather, a guy in a black car over took a parked bus at a bus stop, this guy had no lights on, by the time I saw him it coursed me to brake sharply, just mindless and inconsiderate to other users on the road

Currently, foggy 

Temps 1.7c.....Dp 1.4c....humidity 99%

[I remember Atlantic 252]

UKMO dosen't look great for a white Xmas, too far south, cold and dry

GFS looks poor as well, too far north, wet and windy

[MattStoke]

22 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

UKMO dosen't look great for a white Xmas, too far south, cold and dry

GFS looks poor as well, too far north, wet and windy

Middle ground it is then  

[shunthebartlett92]

It’s the oh so predictable let down we all fear now looking ever more likely sadly. Although sometimes this things give us a last minute shock in terms of the position of the low? Not over yet, although I think it’ll be pretty meh; cold and dry before the Atlantic tries to emerge yet again