Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Walsall Wood Snow]

7 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

When was the last time it flipped then?

After having a bit of a quick look it seems it went positive around 1997 and going by previous trends it could go negative again any time from 2027 to 2037, or even later for all I know. It was negative from say 1967 to 1997 and positive before that from say 1927 to 1967. So basically it might go negative again in anything from 5 to 20 years I guess?

[Stabilo19]

34 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

London currently the warmest place in most of Europe just now. On the 1st February. Great.

It's lovely out there! 

If we can't get snow & cold then i'll settle for mild & sunny.

Edited February 1, 2022 by Stabilo19

[Weather-history]

There have been some really odd months recently in the data for England and Wales.

Take February 2020, unbelievably wet and yet incredibly it was sunnier than average.

January 2021, a CET of 3.1C and 146mm, an odd combination.

April 2021, a CET of 6.4C and 13.5mm.  A really odd combination, the coldest April that was so dry. 

June 2021, the SE was wetter than the NW by a margin

 

[North-Easterly Blast]

The warm September theory is well and truly been tested this winter and so far is proving to be a very well known fact in the UK's weather patterns, that the pattern is clear that it is very rare to get a cold winter in the UK after anomalous warmth in September.  I am of the opinion that if last year's September hadn't seen the anomalous warmth that it had, I think that there would have been a good chance that the position of the solar cycle and easterly QBO would have helped some good cold outbreaks to occur in the UK this winter.

Edited February 1, 2022 by North-Easterly Blast

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, Wimbledon88 said:

London currently the warmest place in most of Europe just now. On the 1st February. Great.

It appears that there is some serious cold in central and northern Europe, but so disappointing that the pattern is not coming together to allow it to reach the UK.

[Methuselah]

25 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The warm September theory is well and truly been tested this winter and so far is proving to be a very well known fact in the UK's weather patterns, that the pattern is clear that it is very rare to get a cold winter in the UK after anomalous warmth in September.  I am of the opinion that if last year's September hadn't seen the anomalous warmth that it had, I think that there would have been a good chance that the position of the solar cycle and easterly QBO would have helped some good cold outbreaks to occur in the UK this winter.

I really fail to see how this winter proves anything at all?

[Froze were the Days]

Just chomp on that +NAO and taste the wholesome repetitiveness...there ain't nothing else on the menu for the remainder of this Winter, us coldies have all been short changed but sadly not for the last time. 

[johncam]

2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Not sure I agree it’s February that has repeatedly delivered down here.

Hi Daniel , not saying we haven't had some cold spell exceptions but on the whole if you check the records most have been above normal with some very high temperatures for Feb 

 

John 

[North-Easterly Blast]

28 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I really fail to see how this winter proves anything at all?

I did some research into past year's records, and I believe that there does not appear to be a link between cool or close to average Septembers and the sort of winter that follows, but history shows us that anomalous warmth in September has rarely ever been followed by a cold winter.  In recent times at least, and often further back, winters that have followed really warm Septembers have often been as poor as this one for cold outbreaks.  I actually do see that there have been Septembers that were "just above average", or even around the 1991-2020 average, such as 1978 and 2009, that have led to cold winters, showing that it is still possible to have even a slightly above average September by older averages, and still be in with a chance of a cold winter. 

The warmest that September had been, that I could find in recent decades or even the last century, that was followed by a cold winter was September 1985, which had a CET of 14.6.  So I believe that to have a warm September that is say, more than half a degree or so above the recent 1991-2020 average, really does ruin the chance and is bad news for colder winter weather in the following winter, even if other background signals (ocean anomalies like ENSO, IOD, and QBO and solar activity) are favourable for cold outbreaks.

I truly believe that the warm September theory is one of the most clear aspects of the British weather patterns as a correlation as to the pattern that is likely to follow in the following few months, and it certainly is well clear that when you have a really warm September the chance of a cold winter is very slim indeed, and is more likely to be followed by a winter that is disappointing for cold like this one is turning out to be.

If I was to make a British weather forecast for years or even decades ahead, I think it is safe to predict that there will never be a cold winter following on from a really warm September.

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, johncam said:

Yep February apart from a few exceptions in last 20 years or so is becoming more like a spring  month 

September a summer month.. December a autumn month..February a spring month..  

[Summer of 95]

Worst winter EVER so far (granted there is still Feb, Mar and April but it has been so bad it needs saying now).

An inexplicable rain here/snow in surrounding counties event in late Nov (heavy rain at 200m in Shropshire while it was settling snow at 50m or less in Staffs, Cheshire, Manchester, Worcestershire). Even by our standards that event defied all explanation. Not a case of missing the precipitation, or it not being heavy enough, or the wrong side of a warm/cold airmass boundary, it was a Shropshire special fail to rival any of them.

2 weeks solid without sunshine in mid to late December.

Another week of next to no sunshine in January.

Intrusions of blowtorch SW'lies every so often.

Lots of chilly but not cold weather, little frost for such a lot of high pressure (unlike 91/92 for example).

Damp and raw a lot of the time but very little actual rain, except when it should have been snowing.

Basically everything I detest in a winter combined to perfection.

Oh and throw in being stuck indoors with Covid for 10 days during the one notable event (even if it was the wrong kind of notable, the record warm New Year).

At least during the likes of 91/2, 13/14, 15/16 and 19/20 practically nowhere had any snow, it wasnt just us in this region. 91/2 was quite frosty and the other three had memorable events like record mild Decembers or wet Jans/Febs. 07/8 was awful but was at least sunny. 88/9, 89/90 and 06/7 had some snow, even if they were much milder than this one. 99/00 and 92/3 are the only two that come close to this one, the former in particular had snow in many other areas but none here and lots of nothing weather, but I think it had more frost and less gloom. 

It has to improve in the next 2-3 months surely?  

 

[sundog]

20 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I did some research into past year's records, and I believe that there does not appear to be a link between cool or close to average Septembers and the sort of winter that follows, but history shows us that anomalous warmth in September has rarely ever been followed by a cold winter.  In recent times at least, and often further back, winters that have followed really warm Septembers have often been as poor as this one for cold outbreaks.  I actually do see that there have been Septembers that were "just above average", or even around the 1991-2020 average, such as 1978 and 2009, that have led to cold winters, showing that it is still possible to have even a slightly above average September by older averages, and still be in with a chance of a cold winter. 

The warmest that September had been, that I could find in recent decades or even the last century, that was followed by a cold winter was September 1985, which had a CET of 14.6.  So I believe that to have a warm September that is say, more than half a degree or so above the recent 1991-2020 average, really does ruin the chance and is bad news for colder winter weather in the following winter, even if other background signals (ocean anomalies like ENSO, IOD, and QBO and solar activity) are favourable for cold outbreaks.

I truly believe that the warm September theory is one of the most clear aspects of the British weather patterns as a correlation as to the pattern that is likely to follow in the following few months, and it certainly is well clear that when you have a really warm September the chance of a cold winter is very slim indeed, and is more likely to be followed by a winter that is disappointing for cold like this one is turning out to be.

If I was to make a British weather forecast for years or even decades ahead, I think it is safe to predict that there will never be a cold winter following on from a really warm September.

Indeed. I see very warm Septembers nowadays as a kind of  teleconnection in itself ( the last 25 yrs or so ) . Why others don't have an open mind on it baffles me.

Edited February 1, 2022 by sundog

[Methuselah]

40 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I did some research into past year's records, and I believe that there does not appear to be a link between cool or close to average Septembers and the sort of winter that follows, but history shows us that anomalous warmth in September has rarely ever been followed by a cold winter.  In recent times at least, and often further back, winters that have followed really warm Septembers have often been as poor as this one for cold outbreaks.  I actually do see that there have been Septembers that were "just above average", or even around the 1991-2020 average, such as 1978 and 2009, that have led to cold winters, showing that it is still possible to have even a slightly above average September by older averages, and still be in with a chance of a cold winter. 

The warmest that September had been, that I could find in recent decades or even the last century, that was followed by a cold winter was September 1985, which had a CET of 14.6.  So I believe that to have a warm September that is say, more than half a degree or so above the recent 1991-2020 average, really does ruin the chance and is bad news for colder winter weather in the following winter, even if other background signals (ocean anomalies like ENSO, IOD, and QBO and solar activity) are favourable for cold outbreaks.

I truly believe that the warm September theory is one of the most clear aspects of the British weather patterns as a correlation as to the pattern that is likely to follow in the following few months, and it certainly is well clear that when you have a really warm September the chance of a cold winter is very slim indeed, and is more likely to be followed by a winter that is disappointing for cold like this one is turning out to be.

If I was to make a British weather forecast for years or even decades ahead, I think it is safe to predict that there will never be a cold winter following on from a really warm September.

Then again, cold (as in really cold winters) are rare anyway, so the sample size is always going to be very small?

Edited February 1, 2022 by Ed Stone

[damianslaw]

As said from a Lake District perspective yes snowfall wise very poor.. but thankfully little in the way of flooding and apart from.Storm Arwen not much wind at all. I class predominantly wet windy mild winters as the worse winters and weve had 4 if those in the last 8 years. 

[Weather-history]

44 minutes ago, sundog said:

Indeed. I see very warm Septembers nowadays as a kind of  teleconnection in itself ( the last 25 yrs or so ) . Why others don't have an open mind on it baffles me.

What baffles me is the lack of a possible explanation. People seem to take it as granted.  Why should a warm September have an impact? September is just man made conception. All it is a specific time period in the earth's orbit.

Why not August? October? November?

March is the opposite to September in the earth's orbit. Does a warm/cold March have an impact on the summer?

If not why not? What so special about September? What's so special about the period in the Earth's orbit? An equinox occurs during it but an equinox occurs during March. 

 

Edited February 1, 2022 by Weather-history

[emmett garland]

Met office  UK have 3rd sunniest ever January on record for England ,why was there so many complaints about dull groggy weather

[jethro]

1 hour ago, johncam said:

Hi Daniel , not saying we haven't had some cold spell exceptions but on the whole if you check the records most have been above normal with some very high temperatures for Feb 

 

John 

Living in the mild and often soggy South West, February is the month I look forward to the most in winter. It's the month where (by far) we're most likely to see snow. Facebook has been taunting me all week with memories of snow, reminding me that on this day last year, the year before, the year before and the year before that, all were snowy, one stand out was very snowy (2019). 

[johncam]

Just now, jethro said:

Living in the mild and often soggy South West, February is the month I look forward to the most in winter. It's the month where (by far) we're most likely to see snow. Facebook has been taunting me all week with memories of snow, reminding me that on this day last year, the year before, the year before and the year before that, all were snowy, one stand out was very snowy (2019). 

If only mate 

[damianslaw]

17 minutes ago, jethro said:

Living in the mild and often soggy South West, February is the month I look forward to the most in winter. It's the month where (by far) we're most likely to see snow. Facebook has been taunting me all week with memories of snow, reminding me that on this day last year, the year before, the year before and the year before that, all were snowy, one stand out was very snowy (2019). 

Really was 2018 and 2020 snowy?

[MP-R]

20 minutes ago, jethro said:

Living in the mild and often soggy South West, February is the month I look forward to the most in winter. It's the month where (by far) we're most likely to see snow. Facebook has been taunting me all week with memories of snow, reminding me that on this day last year, the year before, the year before and the year before that, all were snowy, one stand out was very snowy (2019). 

What a great snowfall that was! 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, MP-R said:

What a great snowfall that was! 

It was indeed!  However, it paled in comparison to the snowfall almost ten years to the day previous (more of a south east event mind) 

Edited February 1, 2022 by Don

[jethro]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Really was 2018 and 2020 snowy?

It was here. 2010 on the other hand, when the nation was all excited about a cold easterly, we got cold/very cold but next to no snow.

3 minutes ago, MP-R said:

What a great snowfall that was! 

Not quite as good as February 2009, that was epic.

 

[Don]

3 minutes ago, jethro said:

It was here. 2010 on the other hand, when the nation was all excited about a cold easterly, we got cold/very cold but next to no snow.

Did you get much snow on February 2nd 2009?

EDIT:  Just seen your response above and sounds like you rather did!

Edited February 1, 2022 by Don

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, jethro said:

It was here. 2010 on the other hand, when the nation was all excited about a cold easterly, we got cold/very cold but next to no snow.

Not quite as good as February 2009, that was epic.

 

Memory is fading but don't recall any snow 1 Feb 2020 or 2018.

[jethro]

Just now, Don said:

Did you get much snow on February 2nd 2009?

I think it was the 6th here but don't quote me. Definitely the first week, close on 2ft here. I'll see if I can find some pics.