Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[johncam]

Been out again clearing weeds from the garden , unbelievable,  we have had 4 air frosts since start  of November 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 hours ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Lovely and warm in our conservatory today which is very unusual for January. Looking like 15c by Tuesday

roll on Tuesday! had enough of frost, rain, frost, rain, after tomorrows wet day, will have had enough of rain

[Summer8906]

18 hours ago, DCee said:

Away from Northern most areas I think that's winter over for the most part. More of the same pattern right the way through to March and beyond is looking likely.

Obviously coldies will still be chasing day tenners, but in the noise they will stay.

Let's hope for an early Spring and signs of a fine summer. Although that'll hopefully arrive after some biblical flooding for the UK which is almost a given, likely in March my sources say....

Nah, June, not March.

Having said that I do think that one of Feb or March will be wetter than normal, perhaps March looking at some models today. It would be extraordinary if the entire first three months of the year were dry, and I'm struggling to find a previous year when this has happened. But then a return to dry (though April perhaps colder with more N-ly plunges and maybe even some late snow), before the inevitable summer deluge....

Edited January 30, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

14 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

roll on Tuesday! had enough of frost, rain, frost, rain, after tomorrows wet day, will have had enough of rain

Only thing is that a forecast 15C at the very start of Feb rings 'dull and gloomy' alarm bells, as Tm air is required to drive temps that high this time of year. Would prefer more days like today tbh, bright and sunny throughout daylight hours, frosty nights and average temps by day, at least for now. Very high temps can wait another three weeks or so by which time the chances of a spell which is both mild and sunny is very much greater.

 

Edited January 30, 2022 by Summer8906

[jimben]

1 hour ago, trickydicky said:

I hope you’re right. Threlkeld, where I assume you’re moving to, is often the dividing line between the largely snowless west of Cumbria and the sometimes snowy central Cumbria. The far east Alston area of Cumbria is where you should’ve looked if it’s regular snow you’re after though. 

I need the mountains close by, usually some snow up there  Heavy snow forecast on top tonight 

Edited January 30, 2022 by jimben

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, jimben said:

I need the mountains close by, usually some snow up there 

Threlkeld is at the foot of Blencathra don't have to walk far to find snow. Skiddaw also close by and it's not too far a walk to Clough Head and 'The Dodds' and area that holds snow better than most other parts of the Lakes. 

As said though so far very limited deep extensive snow on the fells.. but a good 3 months left yet for decent falls that can easily stick despite the strengthening sun. One thing that catches people out is the rate of temp loss gained with height is highest in the spring months. Temps 8 degrees in valleys often equate to 0 degrees 800m or even lower.

[Summer8906]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Threlkeld is at the foot of Blencathra don't have to walk far to find snow. Skiddaw also close by and it's not too far a walk to Clough Head and 'The Dodds' and area that holds snow better than most other parts of the Lakes. 

As said though so far very limited deep extensive snow on the fells.. but a good 3 months left yet for decent falls that can easily stick despite the strengthening sun. One thing that catches people out is the rate of temp loss gained with height is highest in the spring months. Temps 8 degrees in valleys often equate to 0 degrees 800m or even lower.

Threlkeld... once finished a long walk from Edale (yes, really) there in Spring 2000. Basically Pennine Way, then turn left at Horton-in-Ribblesdale, across to Windermere and Coniston, and then north all the way through the Lakes (via various peaks).

This was early May 2000 so ISTR the north getting the best of the weather, it was warm, even hot, and sunny, while I gather down here in the south there were cool cloudy northeasterlies. A vast improvement on the conditions when I started at Edale, as many remember much of April 2000 was incredibly wet and cyclonic, perhaps only second to 2012 recently. (An interesting start though, with southern England snow in the opening days followed by a brief warm, sunny interlude).

Edited January 30, 2022 by Summer8906

[Weather-history]

9 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Only thing is that a forecast 15C at the very start of Feb rings 'dull and gloomy' alarm bells, as Tm air is required to drive temps that high this time of year. 

 

More to the point, where is 15C for Tuesday?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

22 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Only thing is that a forecast 15C at the very start of Feb rings 'dull and gloomy' alarm bells, as Tm air is required to drive temps that high this time of year. Would prefer more days like today tbh, bright and sunny throughout daylight hours, frosty nights and average temps by day, at least for now. Very high temps can wait another three weeks or so by which time the chances of a spell which is both mild and sunny is very much greater.

 

Would prefer dull and gloomy at 15 degrees, than a Cheshire streamer washout! 15 degrees for Tues is optimistic anyway, 12C more realistic

[jimben]

15 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Threlkeld is at the foot of Blencathra don't have to walk far to find snow. Skiddaw also close by and it's not too far a walk to Clough Head and 'The Dodds' and area that holds snow better than most other parts of the Lakes. 

As said though so far very limited deep extensive snow on the fells.. but a good 3 months left yet for decent falls that can easily stick despite the strengthening sun. One thing that catches people out is the rate of temp loss gained with height is highest in the spring months. Temps 8 degrees in valleys often equate to 0 degrees 800m or even lower.

Have been coming up for decades ... I hope I bump into you; even on the ski slope

[trickydicky]

12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Threlkeld is at the foot of Blencathra don't have to walk far to find snow. Skiddaw also close by and it's not too far a walk to Clough Head and 'The Dodds' and area that holds snow better than most other parts of the Lakes. 

As said though so far very limited deep extensive snow on the fells.. but a good 3 months left yet for decent falls that can easily stick despite the strengthening sun. One thing that catches people out is the rate of temp loss gained with height is highest in the spring months. Temps 8 degrees in valleys often equate to 0 degrees 800m or even lower.

You seem to have a better memory/statistical record than me, but I don’t recall a winter with less snow on the tops than this one thus far? Not only has it not snowed very often but what snow there has been hasn’t lasted long at all, being followed almost immediately by mild weather. 

[Summer8906]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Would prefer dull and gloomy at 15 degrees, than a Cheshire streamer washout! 15 degrees for Tues is optimistic anyway, 12C more realistic

Yes, sorry I was going by the original quote from @Staffmoorlands.which suggested 15C.

Shows how different parts of the country benefit from different airmasses. Down here, winter NW-lies give long spells of sunshine so tend to be welcome, while SW-lies and tropical maritime give cloudiness at best, gloom and drizzle at worst.

[damianslaw]

10 minutes ago, trickydicky said:

You seem to have a better memory/statistical record than me, but I don’t recall a winter with less snow on the tops than this one thus far? Not only has it not snowed very often but what snow there has been hasn’t lasted long at all, being followed almost immediately by mild weather. 

In an average winter temps are often just right side of marginal for some decent snowfalls 600m plus even under returning polar maritime airstreams. Tropical maritime means rain at all levels. Alas we've had weeks of high pressure and little frontal Atlantic incursions, no surprise no snow. Mind I fully expect the current front to be giving good snow at and above 600m. 

Winter 13-14 which was exceptionally wet and stormy along with 15-16 brought alot of snow only to the very highest ground 800m. 

Sorry to be talking Cumbria specific..  may be best to chat in NW thread...

[damianslaw]

I'll give you high odds 1 April will be colder than 1 January and 1 February! Indeed wouldn't be surprised if Easter ends up colder! 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

On 30/01/2022 at 18:11, damianslaw said:

I'll give you high odds 1 April will be colder than 1 January and 1 February! Indeed wouldn't be surprised if Easter ends up colder! 

Coldest Easter on record perhaps? You never know!

[Sceptical]

Significant windchill across the Cairngorms tomorrow.

 

 

[Summer8906]

31 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I'll give you high odds 1 April will be colder than 1 January and 1 February! Indeed wouldn't be surprised if Easter ends up colder! 

Yes, if it maxes out at 11C or less, that will probably be the case. Not hard to achieve in early April.

Easter is very late this year (April 17) but probably will still have a lower average temp than New Year's Day, at least. Expected max would be about the same as that actually achieved on New Year's Day, but expected min, a few degrees lower.

Edited January 30, 2022 by Summer8906

[Frost HoIIow]

23 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I'll give you high odds 1 April will be colder than 1 January and 1 February! Indeed wouldn't be surprised if Easter ends up colder! 

Had snow cover here on 10th April last year so nothing would surprise me if March and April had a wintry flavour.

[MP-R]

58 minutes ago, trickydicky said:

You seem to have a better memory/statistical record than me, but I don’t recall a winter with less snow on the tops than this one thus far? Not only has it not snowed very often but what snow there has been hasn’t lasted long at all, being followed almost immediately by mild weather. 

I've certainly never had to wait until February to head to the Brecon Beacons in order to walk in the snow. Granted there has been fleeting snow there, but you'd have to had picked the right five minutes to jump in the car.

[Summer8906]

27 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Coldest Easter on record perhaps? You never know!

At April 17th, probably not, but you never know... one of the most extreme April snowy spells of recent-ish years (April 26 1981) occurred a week after an even later Easter than this year.

Edited January 30, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

2 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I've certainly never had to wait until February to head to the Brecon Beacons in order to walk in the snow. Granted there has been fleeting snow there, but you'd have to had picked the right five minutes to jump in the car.

Ironically the only time I've visited the Brecon Beacons in snow (not especially heavy, but there was some) was in November 2015, during one of the mildest late autumn-early winter seasons on record! There was a very brief northerly plunge the weekend of the 21st-22nd.

[johncam]

Well guys nothing really wintry on charts , will give it another week then will call time on this winter as unless exceptional cold , aka feb 2018 even up here any lying snow doesn't last past midday after mid month  

 

[SqueakheartLW]

52 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

At April 17th, probably not, but you never know... one of the most extreme April snowy spells of recent-ish years (April 26 1981) occurred a week after an even later Easter than this year.

Coldest April 17th on the record between 1878 and 2021 by CET

                                Date                             CET     

Lowest Mean        April 17th 1903          2.4C

Lowest Max          April 17th 1966           5.3C

Lowest Min           April 17th 1892          -2.4C    

Not saying we could achieve any of these above values but they show what could be possible in the right setup.

[mountain shadow]

Well, at the and of December I wrote off the whole of January for proper snow and cold and in the middle of January I wrote of the rest of the Winter and was lambasted by some for doing so. This was not bravado.

The reality is that experience can count for more than what any individual model run is showing, and once the PV returned to NE Canada at the end of December, it was clear Winter was over given that there was little chance of a SSW.

Further, we see the futility of posting individual ensembles runs showing cold as we have seen hundreds and hundred of those. also that no ECM cluster showing proper cold has occurred either. When we see decent runs, we need to look at the background signals to see whether it is likely or not.

I still think there is chance of maybe a week of deep cold during March or April as the PV decays but that is about that.

[Frost HoIIow]

1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Coldest April 17th on the record between 1878 and 2021 by CET

                                Date                             CET     

Lowest Mean        April 17th 1903          2.4C

Lowest Max          April 17th 1966           5.3C

Lowest Min           April 17th 1892          -2.4C    

Not saying we could achieve any of these above values but they show what could be possible in the right setup.

Ideally need a ssw but there's nothing like this is on the horizon and we'd have to get one in the next month as it takes a while for the effects to take place at lower latitudes. We're at risk of missing the plane. We'd also need a decent northerly in April like last year as seen below as the European continent starts to warm up by then. An easterly won't have anywhere near the same bite as it does in March. If I could pick either month for cold no doubt it would be March as we can get decent cold and snow from both north and east.