Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Bill4321]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Anyone else baffled how this storm came to be storm Malik? The last European named storm was Elpis so what happened to F, G,H, I, J, K, L ? 

It seems that as Denmark are likely to be the worst affected they get to choose the name. Their last named storm was Laura (12th March 2020) and Malik is the next on their list.

Storm Malik named by Danish Met Service

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

A low pressure system which has been named Storm Malik by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) will bring high winds and wet weather to the northern UK on Saturday.

 

Edited January 28, 2022 by Bill4321
Added a bit and took away a bit

[East Lancs Rain]

On 23/01/2022 at 19:40, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Unlike folk born after 1998, they don't know what a real winter is

Well I was born in 1997 and so I remember winter 09/10, December 2010 and winter 12/13, which were all “real winters” to me. 

[East Lancs Rain]

Not been on this forum for ages as the weather has been so monotonous last few months but just came on here to say that this winter is the most boring and tedious I have ever known.

 

Just weeks and weeks of overcast and quite chilly weather but no snow apart from end of November and very little frost and not even much fog.

 

There’s been the odd sunny day here and there but mostly it’s just been depressing gloomy winter weather. It’s been very tedious since about mid October.
 

No wind, no snow, not much sunshine, very little frost and fog.

 

Just want winter to be done with to be honest. can’t wait for spring to arrive!  
 

 

 

 

[East Lancs Rain]

Looks like the wind is going to pick up and we’ll be going more westerly for the next few days which is at least a change to this boring and monotonous high pressure which has been going on since August.

[mountain shadow]

6 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Storm Malik 'danger to life' warning issued as 80mph gale force wind set to batter UK

APPLE.NEWS

---

Britain is braced for three days of "severe" gale force wind, as weather experts issued stark 'danger to life' weather warnings.

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted December 7, 2021

Location: Redhill, Surrey

Major storm end of Jan /early Feb….MetO red alerts in place 

 

BFTP

 

 

There we have it.  I anticipate these warnings will occur again and be more widespread with the second plunge.

BFTP

Interesting. Did your method also forecast 4 weeks of UK high pressure? Did it also forecast the worst Nor Easter for New England in 40 years? 

If you have a method, get it peer tested and you will become a very, very rich man.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

This winter is very reminiscent of 2016-17.

 

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

This winter is very reminiscent of 2016-17.

 

Yes, another winter, what winter?!  Still, perhaps next year will be reminiscent of winter 2017/18?!  By no means exceptional, but who can forget the BFTE?! 

Edited January 29, 2022 by Don

[Weather-history]

7 hours ago, Bill4321 said:

It seems that as Denmark are likely to be the worst affected they get to choose the name. Their last named storm was Laura (12th March 2020) and Malik is the next on their list.

Storm Malik named by Danish Met Service

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

A low pressure system which has been named Storm Malik by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) will bring high winds and wet weather to the northern UK on Saturday.

 

Interesting, infact it is a bit of odd that because  storm naming systems are based on seasons, (most famous being the Atlantic hurricane seasons) so the alphabet resets at the start of the next season. I wonder why the Danish are different with this?

Makes you wonder how long ago was "A" was?

[Bill4321]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Interesting, infact it is a bit of odd that because  storm naming systems are based on seasons, (most famous being the Atlantic hurricane seasons) so the alphabet resets at the start of the next season. I wonder why the Danish are different with this?

Makes you wonder how long ago was "A" was?

According to Danish Wiki it was 28th Oct 2013. Given the location of Denmark I'm not too surprised that they don't get many!

Navngivne storme i Danmark - Wikipedia, den frie encyklopædi

DA.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

[sheikhy]

Oh god!!what was that i mentioned the other day?!i said is there anything interesting before 192 hours?!there clearly was not!yeh there was that stupid phantom snow event on 18z gfs for tomorrow but even that didnt come off!my peeps keep falling for the same rubbish in one of the most boring winters in recent memory and i feel for ya!!if you didnt throw the towel in late december early jan then just keep it till next winter now!!one thing that stands out is the lack of rainfall here!!terrible winter but extremely dry!!tight isobar mentions we need a drastic flip and i totally agree but i dont see it happening!!normally i dont say this till april but gimme 20 degrees sunny days and some cricket now and i be more than happy!!

[snowblizzard]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Oh god!!what was that i mentioned the other day?!i said is there anything interesting before 192 hours?!there clearly was not!yeh there was that stupid phantom snow event on 18z gfs for tomorrow but even that didnt come off!my peeps keep falling for the same rubbish in one of the most boring winters in recent memory and i feel for ya!!if you didnt throw the towel in late december early jan then just keep it till next winter now!!one thing that stands out is the lack of rainfall here!!terrible winter but extremely dry!!tight isobar mentions we need a drastic flip and i totally agree but i dont see it happening!!normally i dont say this till april but gimme 20 degrees sunny days and some cricket now and i be more than happy!!

I expect we'll have to get through a freezing cold Spring before then! 

[sheikhy]

10 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

I expect we'll have to get through a freezing cold Spring before then! 

Now that could happen but is something i do not prefer!!!come spring time i want the warm sun hitting my face and the beginning of long walks!!

[Dunstable Snow]

17 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Oh god!!what was that i mentioned the other day?!i said is there anything interesting before 192 hours?!there clearly was not!yeh there was that stupid phantom snow event on 18z gfs for tomorrow but even that didnt come off!my peeps keep falling for the same rubbish in one of the most boring winters in recent memory and i feel for ya!!if you didnt throw the towel in late december early jan then just keep it till next winter now!!one thing that stands out is the lack of rainfall here!!terrible winter but extremely dry!!tight isobar mentions we need a drastic flip and i totally agree but i dont see it happening!!normally i dont say this till april but gimme 20 degrees sunny days and some cricket now and i be more than happy!!

You will be wrapped up in your bobble hat, scarf and gloves at Grace Road come mid April. Drinks for the players will be hot tea and chocolate ! 

[Azazel]

The fantastic winter continues here. Had some drizzle last night but barely enough to wet the ground. 
4 weeks to go!

I say this knowing spring is likely to be cold and wet.

[E17boy]

Hi peeps,

A really sad one from me today. The pattern at the moment is not showing any deep cold, in fact this morning the emphasis has shifted again towards the Azores high coming to play maybe. Even the NW pattern that showed some hope has somewhat been watered down.

I think deep down a lot of us coldies in our hearts know that this winter is going away from the clutches of our hands. As the days go past sadly the feeling that it’s all over now becomes stronger. I personally think this is it now unless a drastic change happens , I think it’s fair to say deep down that we can kiss goodbye to the dreams we had for this season .

Sadly a season that will be remembered for offering so much hope, but in reality one that broke our hearts. I have always said the Azores high has been a spoiler of many of our winters and this is another one to add to that list.

In another 9 months time we will be looking to see what next winter brings. Where our lucky numbers for our jackpot lie who knows.

With regret sadly this season has come to a close for me.

Take care all

stay safe

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi peeps,

A really sad one from me today. The pattern at the moment is not showing any deep cold, in fact this morning the emphasis has shifted again towards the Azores high coming to play maybe. Even the NW pattern that showed some hope has somewhat been watered down.

I think deep down a lot of us coldies in our hearts know that this winter is going away from the clutches of our hands. As the days go past sadly the feeling that it’s all over now becomes stronger. I personally think this is it now unless a drastic change happens , I think it’s fair to say deep down that we can kiss goodbye to the dreams we had for this season .

Sadly a season that will be remembered for offering so much hope, but in reality one that broke our hearts. I have always said the Azores high has been a spoiler of many of our winters and this is another one to add to that list.

In another 9 months time we will be looking to see what next winter brings. Where our lucky numbers for our jackpot lie who knows.

With regret sadly this season has come to a close for me.

Take care all

stay safe

 

Still stay another day! still can't rule out wet snow in March or April for the south

[phil nw.]

The first time for weeks I have heard the wind howling outside.

Signs of something different at last.Mild down here at the moment but it looks like we will see some cold days later next week as polar air heads further south.

Not a snow lovers dream but feeling more like Winter.

 

[RJBingham]

Put this on the telly, and pretend you're looking out the window 

 

[North-Easterly Blast]

47 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi peeps,

A really sad one from me today. The pattern at the moment is not showing any deep cold, in fact this morning the emphasis has shifted again towards the Azores high coming to play maybe. Even the NW pattern that showed some hope has somewhat been watered down.

I think deep down a lot of us coldies in our hearts know that this winter is going away from the clutches of our hands. As the days go past sadly the feeling that it’s all over now becomes stronger. I personally think this is it now unless a drastic change happens , I think it’s fair to say deep down that we can kiss goodbye to the dreams we had for this season .

Sadly a season that will be remembered for offering so much hope, but in reality one that broke our hearts. I have always said the Azores high has been a spoiler of many of our winters and this is another one to add to that list.

In another 9 months time we will be looking to see what next winter brings. Where our lucky numbers for our jackpot lie who knows.

With regret sadly this season has come to a close for me.

Take care all

stay safe

 

I think that this winter was already dead in the water last September, as it is a well known fact of the UK's weather patterns that it is very rare to get a cold winter after a warm September.  Anomalous warmth in September in the UK is a killer pattern for the winter that is to follow.  In any year when September is really warm I think that you can write the following winter off from being anything special in the September.

[Weather-history]

6 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I think that this winter was already dead in the water last September, as it is a well known fact of the UK's weather patterns that it is very rare to get a cold winter after a warm September.  Anomalous warmth in September in the UK is a killer pattern for the winter that is to follow.  In any year when September is really warm I think that you can write the following winter off from being anything special in the September.

Why?  Why would a warm September make any difference?   

I keep asking this question and no one has given a possible reason.

 

[Sunny76]

Just now, Weather-history said:

Why?  Why would a warm September make any difference?   

I keep asking this question and no one has given a possible reason.

 

I think warm September comment has been mentioned on numerous occasions recently. I don’t agree with it.

September 1985 was hot, and the following winter was cold. 
 

 

[Stationary Front]

Warmer here today than the expected  max in Orlando Florida today

[North-Easterly Blast]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Why?  Why would a warm September make any difference?   

I keep asking this question and no one has given a possible reason.

 

 

3 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I think warm September comment has been mentioned on numerous occasions recently. I don’t agree with it.

September 1985 was hot, and the following winter was cold. 
 

 

I have looked back in the records and, in recent decades anyway, the warmest September that I have found that has been followed by a decent winter for cold was 1985, whose September had a CET of 14.6.  My conclusion is that when September is cool or even close to average there does not appear to be a pattern on the type of winter that follows.  There certainly appears to be a strong link that if September is significantly warm (say more than 1*C above average) it appears that it is very rare to get a cold winter to follow it, and the theory has certainly been a strong one in recent times at least.  

That said, it appears that it is still possible to have a September that is "slightly above average," rather than significantly warm, like in 2009 (CET 14.2), (1978 was also 14.2) and get a cold winter to follow, and we just scraped in with 1985's 14.6.  (It would be difficult to consider a September really warm to test the theory, if it is only around half a degree above average).

On the other hand I think that really warm Septembers (CETs 15*C and above), or possibly high 14s or more, are really bad news if you want a decent winter to follow, and recent times have clearly shown this, and even recent winters with other good background signals have still not brought much in the way of proper cold patterns after really warm Septembers.

The September averages are as follows (1961-90 13.6; 1971-2000 13.7; 1981-2010 14.0; 1991-2020 14.2).  Based on this I would say that a September CET from the high 14s upwards could be considered warm.  On top of this, September 2021s CET of 15.9 was the seventh warmest on record back to 1659.  So I would say that when you have a September that is in the top ten warmest on record then this winter was certainly written off last September.

I think the warm September + mild winter theory, or at least not favouring a colder winter to follow, is as strong a link in the UKs weather patterns, as mild Februarys not favouring a cold March to follow.  I was also doing some research on that recently, and found that notably mild Februarys (above 6*C CET) in recent times at least, have nearly always followed by mild Marches (over 7.5 CET); in recent times only 1995 was followed by a colder March, and in 2011 and 2020 the March CET was not in the 7.5+ category.  That said the mild February = mild March theory clearly does not always work the other way round (1991, 1994, 1981 being examples).  On the other side of the September theory, it appears that it is not clear that there is any trend in the type of winter that follows.  

While nothing in the British weather patterns appears to guarantee cold weather for the UK, my conclusion is that really warm Septembers do not favour colder conditions during the following winter; in the same way really mild Februarys do not favour colder weather in the March to follow.

[Nick L]

4 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

 

I have looked back in the records and, in recent decades anyway, the warmest September that I have found that has been followed by a decent winter for cold was 1985, whose September had a CET of 14.6.  My conclusion is that when September is cool or even close to average there does not appear to be a pattern on the type of winter that follows.  There certainly appears to be a strong link that if September is significantly warm (say more than 1*C above average) it appears that it is very rare to get a cold winter to follow it, and the theory has certainly been a strong one in recent times at least.  

That said, it appears that it is still possible to have a September that is "slightly above average," rather than significantly warm, like in 2009 (CET 14.2), (1978 was also 14.2) and get a cold winter to follow, and we just scraped in with 1985's 14.6.  (It would be difficult to consider a September really warm to test the theory, if it is only around half a degree above average).

On the other hand I think that really warm Septembers (CETs 15*C and above), or possibly high 14s or more, are really bad news if you want a decent winter to follow, and recent times have clearly shown this, and even recent winters with other good background signals have still not brought much in the way of proper cold patterns after really warm Septembers.

The September averages are as follows (1961-90 13.6; 1971-2000 13.7; 1981-2010 14.0; 1991-2020 14.2).  Based on this I would say that a September CET from the high 14s upwards could be considered warm.  On top of this, September 2021s CET of 15.9 was the seventh warmest on record back to 1659.  So I would say that when you have a September that is in the top ten warmest on record then this winter was certainly written off last September.

I think the warm September + mild winter theory, or at least not favouring a colder winter to follow, is as strong a link in the UKs weather patterns, as mild Februarys not favouring a cold March to follow.  I was also doing some research on that recently, and found that notably mild Februarys (above 6*C CET) in recent times at least, have nearly always followed by mild Marches (over 7.5 CET); in recent times only 1995 was followed by a colder March, and in 2011 and 2020 the March CET was not in the 7.5+ category.  That said the mild February = mild March theory clearly does not always work the other way round (1991, 1994, 1981 being examples).  On the other side of the September theory, it appears that it is not clear that there is any trend in the type of winter that follows.  

While nothing in the British weather patterns appears to guarantee cold weather for the UK, my conclusion is that really warm Septembers do not favour colder conditions during the following winter; in the same way really mild Februarys do not favour colder weather in the March to follow.

Correlation does not necessarily equal causation.

[John88B]

For the snow starved on here I give you the Boston webcam. Boston USA unfortunately   They're expecting 20-30 inches. Lucky gits.

EarthCam - Boston Cam

WWW.EARTHCAM.COM