Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[PiscesStar]

On 28/01/2022 at 21:25, phil nw. said:

A polar view of the movement of cold air from the gefs days 1-10.

shows the feed of cold ongoing across the pole from Siberia and draining well south into the North American continent.

Deep Winter cold for them with one East coast storm already on the way and more to come next week as the cold surges again into the north west and heads south and east.

This all helps to fire up the Atlantic jet towards the Uk as the cold spills into the warmer Atlantic spawning further low pressure systems.The UK receiving transitory spells of polar air from this setup as the lows pass across.

How generous of them or just wind and rain if we are lucky whilst they enjoy the Snow ? GFS reflecting the sombre mood of many on here with its grim output... 

[Don]

4 hours ago, sundog said:

I think we can  safely say at this stage that last winter was NOT a teaser winter.  Last winter was our bloody winter i think lol.

I certainly do not disagree with that!

[damianslaw]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

I certainly do not disagree with that!

Last winter in that respect similar to 00-01 which didn't mark a change to colder winters.. though the following winters did have some interest at times. Possibly in terms of timelines similar to 05-06 some cold at times in a long run of often mild winters since 97-98... this year our 06-07.. I know it doesn't work like that but I feel the same as I did by winter 06-07 wondering when will we ever see a cold winter again... or will we ever.. there was a 14 year gap between the last properly cold winter 95-96 and 09-10.

Edited January 31, 2022 by damianslaw

[Atleastitwillbemild]

18 hours ago, Cuban Zebra said:

As I sit here on the 30th Jan I wonder where the last month has gone, the total lack of any cold weather of note and the lack of anything cold now out till the last 3rd of February, the way this pattern has just rinsed and repeated is simply staggering!

As the wise Bill Foggitt used to say “ice in November to bear a duck, rest of the winter nowt but slush and muck”!!!!

What is absolutely staggering is everyone's complete and total unwillngness to admit that our climate is changing; the denial of how this is directly due to our own actions/inactions;  and how the lack of deep cold or snow in our winters is only going to cotinue to intesify. How anyone, (considering the unanimous agreement of all the world's scientists combined and their projections of future warming) can find the gradual warming of our winters along with the creeping up of yearly winter averages "staggering" is quite mind boggling to me. What is it you're all expecting exactly? When scientists warn of "global warming" what did that mean to any of you ? Why do you all keep coming on here year and after year absolutely outraged that winter is insolently and defiantly witholding its christmas cardy winter goods out of some kind of petty spite?  NEWSFLASH:  winter is over people. Not just this year, but climactically. We made out beds and its time to lie in it. Enjoy the tropical future Christmas while you shop happily on amazon for the cheapest smartphone you can find delivered to you from coal burning China as speedily as possible.

You can always come on here and complain about how outrageous it is that the daffodils are out in January and Christmas is "disgustingly" balmy at 17 c.

The stupidity of this denial is staggering. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 hours ago, minus10 said:

Seeing the sun this morning makes me wish for spring now and put this 'winter' behind us. Probably premature as still have a nagging feeling that we will 'pay' for this with a cool damp spring. 

 

 

 

March and April look dry and increasingly warm from where I’m sat.

Spring not too far off and it could be a decent one for sun lovers…

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

March and April look dry and increasingly warm from where I’m sat.

Spring not too far off and it could be a decent one for sun lovers…

On what basis? It has been the most blocked January down here in 30 years my average pressure is 1025.1mb, much of February is now looking dry this won’t continue forever. Spring 1992 was unsettled, no year is the same but it seems unlikely we will reach summer without one unsettled month.

[Freeze]

9 minutes ago, Atleastitwillbemild said:

What is absolutely staggering is everyone's complete and total unwillngness to admit that our climate is changing; the denial of how this is directly due to our own actions/inactions;  and how the lack of deep cold or snow in our winters is only going to cotinue to intesify. How anyone, (considering the unanimous agreement of all the world's scientists combined and their projections of future warming) can find the gradual warming of our winters along with the creeping up of yearly winter averages "staggering" is quite mind boggling to me. What is it you're all expecting exactly? When scientists warn of "global warming" what did that mean to any of you ? Why do you all keep coming on here year and after year absolutely outraged that winter is insolently and defiantly witholding its christmas cardy winter goods out of some kind of petty spite?  NEWSFLASH:  winter is over people. Not just this year, but climactically. We made out beds and its time to lie in it. Enjoy the tropical future Christmas while you shop happily on amazon for the cheapest smartphone you can find delivered to you from coal burning China as speedily as possible.

You can always come on here and complain about how outrageous it is that the daffodils are out in January and Christmas is "disgustingly" balmy at 17 c.

The stupidity of this denial is staggering. 

I remember reading these kind of comments in 2007 to 2008 ish. Then look what happened years after. One mild winter and the "winters finished forever" brigade come out. 

Edit: I'm Aware the climate is warming btw.

Edited January 31, 2022 by Freeze

[Climate Man]

7 minutes ago, Freeze said:

I remember reading these kind of comments in 2007 to 2008 ish. Then look what happened years after. One mild winter and the "winters finished forever" brigade come out. 

Edit: I'm Aware the climate is warming btw.

Warming climate may be irrelevant/good if resulting pattern change is beneficial. 

[mountain shadow]

13 minutes ago, Freeze said:

I remember reading these kind of comments in 2007 to 2008 ish. Then look what happened years after. One mild winter and the "winters finished forever" brigade come out. 

Edit: I'm Aware the climate is warming btw.

We will get bitter spells in the future, they're just going to become rarer and rarer.

Kids being born today in Southern England might be lucky to see 4 or 5 bitter cold spells of a week or more in their lifetime.

[Geordiesnow]

32 minutes ago, Atleastitwillbemild said:

What is absolutely staggering is everyone's complete and total unwillngness to admit that our climate is changing; the denial of how this is directly due to our own actions/inactions;  and how the lack of deep cold or snow in our winters is only going to cotinue to intesify. How anyone, (considering the unanimous agreement of all the world's scientists combined and their projections of future warming) can find the gradual warming of our winters along with the creeping up of yearly winter averages "staggering" is quite mind boggling to me. What is it you're all expecting exactly? When scientists warn of "global warming" what did that mean to any of you ? Why do you all keep coming on here year and after year absolutely outraged that winter is insolently and defiantly witholding its christmas cardy winter goods out of some kind of petty spite?  NEWSFLASH:  winter is over people. Not just this year, but climactically. We made out beds and its time to lie in it. Enjoy the tropical future Christmas while you shop happily on amazon for the cheapest smartphone you can find delivered to you from coal burning China as speedily as possible.

You can always come on here and complain about how outrageous it is that the daffodils are out in January and Christmas is "disgustingly" balmy at 17 c.

The stupidity of this denial is staggering. 

Of course despite climate change, the cold air has not disappeared so its more of the question of has climate change caused the jet stream to become stronger which limits blocking patterns which we mostly need to get colder weather on our shores. Everytime I see hints of ridges to Greenland, they get flattened by shortwaves, quite predictable really. 

I do think climate change has had an impact of polar maritime air from the west north west which are probably a degree or two warmer than if a similar set up occurred 30 40 years ago. I also think climate change has an impact of strengthening any high pressure systems to the south as warmer air can lead to increase thicknesses therefore producing a stronger blocking high. This could mean record breaking temperatures during February especially if it sets up right like it did a couple of years back I recall. 

Still would not rule out a significant cold spell before winter is officially finished but no signs whatsoever, not whilst the PV is over Greenland and Baffin Bay. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

On what basis? It has been the most blocked January down here in 30 years my average pressure is 1025.1mb, much of February is now looking dry this won’t continue forever. Spring 1992 was unsettled, no year is the same but it seems unlikely we will reach summer without one unsettled month.

I’m not seeing anything in the next couple of months that could change the status quo. ENSO will head neutral as time progresses so no help there. Added to that the seasonal modelling continues to promote mean anti cyclonic conditions with HP located over, or just to the SE of the UK throughout spring.

Core summer at this point looks potentially wet…but that’s a long way off.

Edited January 31, 2022 by CreweCold

[reef]

1 hour ago, Geordiesnow said:

Of course despite climate change, the cold air has not disappeared so its more of the question of has climate change caused the jet stream to become stronger which limits blocking patterns which we mostly need to get colder weather on our shores. Everytime I see hints of ridges to Greenland, they get flattened by shortwaves, quite predictable really. 

I do think climate change has had an impact of polar maritime air from the west north west which are probably a degree or two warmer than if a similar set up occurred 30 40 years ago. I also think climate change has an impact of strengthening any high pressure systems to the south as warmer air can lead to increase thicknesses therefore producing a stronger blocking high. This could mean record breaking temperatures during February especially if it sets up right like it did a couple of years back I recall. 

Still would not rule out a significant cold spell before winter is officially finished but no signs whatsoever, not whilst the PV is over Greenland and Baffin Bay. 

Certainly the biggest change in my neck of the woods has been the short 1-2 day events or just the right side of marginal events that the 1 degree or so of warming (and warmer SSTs) have seen off. We're also directly affected by the lack of winter northerlies; topplers have almost become extinct. This is, as you say, is a result of a lack of ridging into Greenland and shortwaves forming. Its no doubt a result of the warmer SSTs driving stronger cyclogenesis as cold air spills out from the north-eastern coast of the US, firing up the jet stream.

At the end of the day, snowfall is generally marginal in the UK, so a 1-2 degree difference can be quite significant to snow chances at sea level, whereas a place at -10C wont see much difference at -8C. If anything, a slight warming probably increases snow chances in these places.

[Don]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Last winter in that respect similar to 00-01 which didn't mark a change to colder winters.. though the following winters did have some interest at times. Possibly in terms of timelines similar to 05-06 some cold at times in a long run of often mild winters since 97-98... this year our 06-07.. I know it doesn't work like that but I feel the same as I did by winter 06-07 wondering when will we ever see a cold winter again... or will we ever.. there was a 14 year gap between the last properly cold winter 95-96 and 09-10.

We seem to have been in the same predominant NH pattern since winter 2013/14, albeit with 2017/18 and last winter being exceptions.  Gavin Partridge discussed this in one of his videos yesterday.  So, that's 8 years now with the question being, how long will this pattern last?  North America have had frigid winters as a result but north western Europe have been predominately mild.  We may see a change to colder winters again like in 2008, but will become less likely as time ticks on.

[LRD]

22 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I’m not seeing anything in the next couple of months that could change the status quo. ENSO will head neutral as time progresses so no help there. Added to that the seasonal modelling continues to promote mean anti cyclonic conditions with HP located over, or just to the SE of the UK throughout spring.

Core summer at this point looks potentially wet…but that’s a long way off.

Yes, agreed. Since August (high pressure dominated that month but in the wrong place for warmth for most areas apart from Scotland and NI) high pressure, in one way, shape or form, has dominated apart from an odd blip. Even July last year pressure wasn't low. And, if this forecast model from the Met Office verifies...

Global long-range model probability maps

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Model probabilistic guidance for temperature and rainfall up to six months ahead. Updated monthly.

...it will be basically a year of high pressure. May 2021 was the last time low pressure was really in control of events. Perhaps rivalling 1975 and 1976 (not that I recall that) for the sheer amount of dry weather.

It's been utterly boring. The most tedious autumn and winter ever in the Net Weather era. If we hadn't had a few frosts down here, winter would be up there (or down there, whichever way you look at it) with 1988-89 for rubbishness (for cold). But, we all like extremes on here and, in it's own extraordinarily, mind-numbingly monotonous way this is now a period of extreme weather

Global long-range model probability maps - Met Office.url

[Staffmoorlands]

12z GFS dominated by high pressure. Nothing too exciting at this stage - no severe cold or mild

Edited January 31, 2022 by Staffmoorlands

[Norrance]

Looking like high pressure to dominate for some time yet with only the far NW being more changeable. Despite the numerous UK forecasts saying the North and Scotland would be more unsettled the nearest reporting station to me has a total rainfall for the month of 12.8mms, most of which fell at the beginning of the month plus 1 mm yesterday. Ground is very dry and could do with a soaking.

[sundog]

I'm sure we will pay for all this high pressure sooner or later. Will we get all of spring out of it and then bang it all changes for the summer replaced by low pressure . That would be my guess .

[johncam]

Dreadful charts again to go along with this dreadful winter roll on spring which no doubt will be dreadful as well  

[Climate Man]

19 minutes ago, johncam said:

Dreadful charts again to go along with this dreadful winter roll on spring which no doubt will be dreadful as well  

Just watch High pressure set up camp over Greenland when spring arrives,  just as 2021.

[johncam]

Just now, Climate Man said:

Just watch High pressure set up camp over Greenland when spring arrives,  just as 2021.

Yep no doubt you will be right mate , May last year went to Aviemore on holiday and the weather was shocking 7c and rained most days ,colder than we have had most of this winter 

[TwisterGirl81]

7 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

Just watch High pressure set up camp over Greenland when spring arrives,  just as 2021.

Oh dear I hope not!  if there's any justice we will be in for a beautiful summer, god knows we all need it, sods law if we don't

 

Edited January 31, 2022 by TwisterGirl81

[ANYWEATHER]

3 hours ago, Atleastitwillbemild said:

What is absolutely staggering is everyone's complete and total unwillngness to admit that our climate is changing; the denial of how this is directly due to our own actions/inactions;  and how the lack of deep cold or snow in our winters is only going to cotinue to intesify. How anyone, (considering the unanimous agreement of all the world's scientists combined and their projections of future warming) can find the gradual warming of our winters along with the creeping up of yearly winter averages "staggering" is quite mind boggling to me. What is it you're all expecting exactly? When scientists warn of "global warming" what did that mean to any of you ? Why do you all keep coming on here year and after year absolutely outraged that winter is insolently and defiantly witholding its christmas cardy winter goods out of some kind of petty spite?  NEWSFLASH:  winter is over people. Not just this year, but climactically. We made out beds and its time to lie in it. Enjoy the tropical future Christmas while you shop happily on amazon for the cheapest smartphone you can find delivered to you from coal burning China as speedily as possible.

You can always come on here and complain about how outrageous it is that the daffodils are out in January and Christmas is "disgustingly" balmy at 17 c.

The stupidity of this denial is staggering. 

Lots of places this Winter have had record cold and snow in the nothern hemisphere .  Because it's not in your backyard does not mean Winter has forgotten the Northern Hemisphere.  What is staggering is that the UK covers tiddly-pip of the Planet ,that the cold spells we have had are a bonus to these islands....Why did 1962/63 happen the coldest for 240 years.?.. Why did 2010 happen? In my back garden it was down to minus 20c...(minus 4cf )according to climate experts that should of never happened and according to my friends in Mid-Wales it was even colder than that....We can all moan about the weather, but extreme weather in this country thank goodness is rare, but if you look back in History it was certainly more common. Anyway,  January this year for England and Wales, temperatures were at or a little below average, without any extreme conditions, which surely is good for everyone, industry, alike.....☺

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 hours ago, Atleastitwillbemild said:

What is absolutely staggering is everyone's complete and total unwillngness to admit that our climate is changing; the denial of how this is directly due to our own actions/inactions;  and how the lack of deep cold or snow in our winters is only going to cotinue to intesify. How anyone, (considering the unanimous agreement of all the world's scientists combined and their projections of future warming) can find the gradual warming of our winters along with the creeping up of yearly winter averages "staggering" is quite mind boggling to me. What is it you're all expecting exactly? When scientists warn of "global warming" what did that mean to any of you ? Why do you all keep coming on here year and after year absolutely outraged that winter is insolently and defiantly witholding its christmas cardy winter goods out of some kind of petty spite?  NEWSFLASH:  winter is over people. Not just this year, but climactically. We made out beds and its time to lie in it. Enjoy the tropical future Christmas while you shop happily on amazon for the cheapest smartphone you can find delivered to you from coal burning China as speedily as possible.

You can always come on here and complain about how outrageous it is that the daffodils are out in January and Christmas is "disgustingly" balmy at 17 c.

The stupidity of this denial is staggering. 

No denial from me! very well aware

[Bartlett High]

23 minutes ago, minus10 said:

What a monster!!

and no, i'm not talking about the vortex..

This year could well be a very dry year indeed...droughts likely perhaps

[LetItSnow!]

9 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

This year could well be a very dry year indeed...droughts likely perhaps

Problem with that is that's exactly what we were saying in March 2012  Though we are overdue a very dry year. Perhaps apart from regionally, there hasn't been one since 2011.