Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[LetItSnow!]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

There have been some really odd months recently in the data for England and Wales.

Take February 2020, unbelievably wet and yet incredibly it was sunnier than average.

January 2021, a CET of 3.1C and 146mm, an odd combination.

April 2021, a CET of 6.4C and 13.5mm.  A really odd combination, the coldest April that was so dry. 

June 2021, the SE was wetter than the NW by a margin

 

Interesting about 2020 as how wet I remember it being that winter I never remember it feeling that dull or grim - indeed a lot of mild, wet & stormy winters often end up being sunnier than average. I think this is due to the frontal rainfall often clearing to sunshine and showers. Winter 2014 is a good example. Only wet winter months with permanent SW winds often end up feeling really dull, like December 2015 or December 2018.

Edited February 1, 2022 by LetItSnow!

[jethro]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Memory is fading but don't recall any snow 1 Feb 2020 or 2018.

I don't recall dates at all, I rely on Facebook memories for snow days. I remember months and years.

[Don]

Just now, jethro said:

I think it was the 6th here but don't quote me. Definitely the first week, close on 2ft here. I'll see if I can find some pics.

 

That would be good.  I think I remember now that although more western areas didn't get too much snow on the 2nd, they had a lot more later in the week, when it was starting to clear around London and the south east.

[jethro]

8 minutes ago, Don said:

That would be good.  I think I remember now that although more western areas didn't get too much snow on the 2nd, they had a lot more later in the week, when it was starting to clear around London and the south east.

Good old FB, so easy to find old pics, together with dates  It was 6th Feb 2009. It's the only proper blizzard I've seen down here, coming down so heavy you can barely see the horses in the field.

[sundog]

58 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

What baffles me is the lack of a possible explanation. People seem to take it as granted.  Why should a warm September have an impact? September is just man made conception. All it is a specific time period in the earth's orbit.

Why not August? October? November?

March is the opposite to September in the earth's orbit. Does a warm/cold March have an impact on the summer?

If not why not? What so special about September? What's so special about the period in the Earth's orbit? An equinox occurs during it but an equinox occurs during March. 

 

Just going by statistics of the last 25 yrs. The statistics in that time period don't lie regarding very warm Septembers and the winters that followed. Certainly for my location anyway.  I can count on one hand the number of airfrosts so far this winter for example.  

Going into this winter many teleconnections pointed to a decent chance of a good winter. Can anyone explain why that failed big time regarding Western Europe?The Arctic has had a decent winter by recent standards there was plenty of cold to go around yet Western Europe missed out. Gavin partridge mentioned the other day in one of his videos was there any point in doing winter forecasts anymore based on teleconnections and thinks this winter was a big wake up call in that regard. 

Anyway  maybe a very warm September in this part of the world  in recent times reflects the atmosphere state going into the winter and somehow the atmosphere is preloaded to some degree to deny us much in the way of cold spells during the winter. That's the only possible  reason I can think of. 

Edited February 1, 2022 by sundog

[damianslaw]

29 minutes ago, jethro said:

I don't recall dates at all, I rely on Facebook memories for snow days. I remember months and years.

Late Feb 18 delivered snow. We had a morning of snow on 24th Feb 2020 and that was it for that month.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

What baffles me is the lack of a possible explanation. People seem to take it as granted.  Why should a warm September have an impact? September is just man made conception. All it is a specific time period in the earth's orbit.

Why not August? October? November?

March is the opposite to September in the earth's orbit. Does a warm/cold March have an impact on the summer?

If not why not? What so special about September? What's so special about the period in the Earth's orbit? An equinox occurs during it but an equinox occurs during March. 

 

Wasn't this year's front-loaded mega-cold winter scuppered by a sunspot?

[NewEra21]

37 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Wasn't this year's front-loaded mega-cold winter scuppered by a sunspot?

Yes, but it was the warm September, cold spring, mild winter, warm September, wet spring and mild winter that preceded it that guaranteed this winter would be a flop

[richie3846]

I spent the day out and about in West Oxfordshire (working). Brize Norton hit 14.5c, the sun was warm and clouds were few. What a fantastic start to February. I know there are many here looking for cold, but don't let that desire stop you from enjoying what we DO have. For many today it was like the first taste of spring. Not like the mild weather we had at New Year, under the gloomy cloud. This was warmth generated in part by the increasing strength of the sun.

I can't remember a day this spring-like so early in the month of February, mid February yes, but not the 1st. Not quite as warm tomorrow but still looks to be very pleasant round these parts. Bring it on, my favourite winter of the 9 years I've spent working outside (a lot of the time). Little rain,little wind, no snow, no real cold. Perfect for my needs! 

I'm trying to take this mentality forward for the summer. Whilst some of you get disappointed with lack of winter action, I get upset in summer when it's cloudy and not that warm, like last summer in the South. I don't want to feel like that,so I must remember this feeling I have today, the immense joy of the first real taste of spring, and not let my EXPECTATIONS ruin my enjoyment of the summer. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye, chances that 1st May will be colder than 1st of Jan and Feb

[Methuselah]

16 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Yes, but it was the warm September, cold spring, mild winter, warm September, wet spring and mild winter that preceded it that guaranteed this winter would be a flop

At least that lets that 'snow advance in October index' baloney off the hook? Phew!

[reef]

January finished on 104 hours of sunshine here, some 170% of the 1991-2020 average and far ahead of the previous record of 91 hours.

It was also the driest since 1997 with just 14.8mm in total and second driest overall.

Temps were 0.2C below average too, mainly due to below average mins. It was unfortunately snowless.

[Don]

2 hours ago, jethro said:

Good old FB, so easy to find old pics, together with dates  It was 6th Feb 2009. It's the only proper blizzard I've seen down here, coming down so heavy you can barely see the horses in the field.

Great photos and great memories from that spell! 

[emmett garland]

49 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, chances that 1st May will be colder than 1st of Jan and Feb

yes

[damianslaw]

55 minutes ago, emmett garland said:

yes

Possibly 1st June as well ha ha.. known a few cold starts to June maxima less than 11 degrees! 

1 hour ago, richie3846 said:

I spent the day out and about in West Oxfordshire (working). Brize Norton hit 14.5c, the sun was warm and clouds were few. What a fantastic start to February. I know there are many here looking for cold, but don't let that desire stop you from enjoying what we DO have. For many today it was like the first taste of spring. Not like the mild weather we had at New Year, under the gloomy cloud. This was warmth generated in part by the increasing strength of the sun.

I can't remember a day this spring-like so early in the month of February, mid February yes, but not the 1st. Not quite as warm tomorrow but still looks to be very pleasant round these parts. Bring it on, my favourite winter of the 9 years I've spent working outside (a lot of the time). Little rain,little wind, no snow, no real cold. Perfect for my needs! 

I'm trying to take this mentality forward for the summer. Whilst some of you get disappointed with lack of winter action, I get upset in summer when it's cloudy and not that warm, like last summer in the South. I don't want to feel like that,so I must remember this feeling I have today, the immense joy of the first real taste of spring, and not let my EXPECTATIONS ruin my enjoyment of the summer. 

If you read Roger Smith daily postings stats from each date you'll see many a very mild start to February equally as mild as this one. 2004 was exceptionally ally mild. 

Edited February 1, 2022 by damianslaw

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Don't think I've ever posted so little over a Winter before? Very disappointing 

[NewEra21]

I'll hang in there until Valentines day, but if the models are showing no love for us cold fans by then. The game is well and truly up. I've no idea why, but I still feel the 2nd half of February could see a change for the better in terms of cold for us. Yes I know I'm a fool! But whatever the charts show on Valentines day is the final straw imo.

That's not to say we won't get cold spells throughout spring, as we most likely will. Just not as interested as we head into March with the stronger sun etc.

[Glaswegianblizzard]

We are guaranteed to get colder spells up here into the spring. Used to feel quite discombobulating with the brighter nights combining with nagging cold, but you get used to it. They'll probably come around after the first really nice spell of spring that makes you hope for continued sunshine and warmth through to summer, making it doubly as harsh. 

[Guest]

Seems to be getting to the stage where unless there’s a huge pattern change this winter will be completely snowless. I think the most surprising thing so far is we’ve not even really come close to a fall of snow. 

[MP-R]

25 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Seems to be getting to the stage where unless there’s a huge pattern change this winter will be completely snowless. I think the most surprising thing so far is we’ve not even really come close to a fall of snow. 

It’s been quite the task getting rain let alone snow lol.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, MP-R said:

It’s been quite the task getting rain let alone snow lol.

What’s the betting that’s not the case Apr-Sept

[mountain shadow]

19 hours ago, sundog said:

Going into this winter many teleconnections pointed to a decent chance of a good winter. Can anyone explain why that failed big time regarding Western Europe?The Arctic has had a decent winter by recent standards there was plenty of cold to go around yet Western Europe missed out. Gavin partridge mentioned the other day in one of his videos was there any point in doing winter forecasts anymore based on teleconnections and thinks this winter was a big wake up call in that regard. 

 

For me, it is two things being caused by climate change:

1. The expansion northwards of the Azores High due to higher North Atlantic Temperatures. This encourages the jet stream to stay North of the UK, this is a driver to

2. The persistence of the NE Canada PV which drives the jet with the deep cold meeting those self same higher North Atlantic temperatures. The jet simply blows away any attempts at a favourable Northerly block.

These two can only be overridden by a SSW or a major tropospheric wave break event. 

Long range forecasting for the UK is very easy if the there are no signals for the last line above.

Edited February 2, 2022 by mountain shadow

[jonboy]

Our only hope!!!

The groundhog has predicted a further 6 weeks of winter in the USA perhaps they will send some our way!!!

[Sunny76]

On 29/01/2022 at 19:13, Summer8906 said:

To be honest I would mostly agree, as once we get a strong jetstream this time of year, it tends not to disrupt until after the spring equinox. However it commonly does move north and/or south, which means that while Feb and March tend to share westerliness, they do not necessarily share cyclonicity/anticyclonicity. However in many such years we can get late snow in April, perhaps that's our best chance this year!

I think I would take a March like 2000, or even more so, 1997 (another historical analogue though obviously we didn't get the cold start this year!)

Best chance of something wintry is if the flow veers to the NW, this doesn't happen often but a notable example is March 1995 when we did get a northwesterly which gave even lowland southern England some snow early in the month.

The analogue with the worst outlook I think is 1989. That year January was anticyclonic, though the pattern was further south which meant it was consistently very mild with little in the way of frost. February continued in the same vein until around the 13th, before a very prolonged cyclonic SW-ly type set in, ensuring that both Feb and March were both mild and wet overall, and also dull, IIRC. It relented just in time for the (early) Easter, with Easter 1989 being one of the warmer and sunnier ones, despite being in March! But then April 1989 was cold and wet: Feb-Mar-Apr 1989 being perhaps the 'worst' Feb-Mar-Apr period I've experienced. Just as well an epic summer then followed!

I don't think there has been a year other than 1989 when both Feb and March have been both milder and wetter than normal in recent times. While snow maybe difficult at least that's some good news.

1990 was just as mild in February and March was warm and sunny that year.

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

For me, it is two things being caused by climate change:

1. The expansion northwards of the Azores High due to higher North Atlantic Temperatures. This encourages the jet stream to stay North of the UK, this is a driver to

2. The persistence of the NE Canada PV which drives the jet with the deep cold meeting those self same higher North Atlantic temperatures. The jet simply blows away any attempts at a favourable Northerly block.

These two can only be overridden by a SSW or a major tropospheric wave break event. 

Long range forecasting for the UK is very easy if the there are no signals for the last line above.

Maybe the Azores High moved north during the time of the Great Storm of 1987. Seems the westerly winds have become stronger since that time.

[Sunny76]

5 hours ago, NewEra21 said:

I'll hang in there until Valentines day, but if the models are showing no love for us cold fans by then. The game is well and truly up. I've no idea why, but I still feel the 2nd half of February could see a change for the better in terms of cold for us. Yes I know I'm a fool! But whatever the charts show on Valentines day is the final straw imo.

That's not to say we won't get cold spells throughout spring, as we most likely will. Just not as interested as we head into March with the stronger sun etc.

1994 provided snow in February, and snow fell in the previous November, even as far south as London. January 94 was average. There's still time for something cold and snowy to happen.