Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Cuban Zebra]

As I sit here on the 30th Jan I wonder where the last month has gone, the total lack of any cold weather of note and the lack of anything cold now out till the last 3rd of February, the way this pattern has just rinsed and repeated is simply staggering!

As the wise Bill Foggitt used to say “ice in November to bear a duck, rest of the winter nowt but slush and muck”!!!!

[damianslaw]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Well, at the and of December I wrote off the whole of January for proper snow and cold and in the middle of January I wrote of the rest of the Winter and was lambasted by some for doing so. This was not bravado.

The reality is that experience can count for more than what any individual model run is showing, and once the PV returned to NE Canada at the end of December, it was clear Winter was over given that there was little chance of a SSW.

Further, we see the futility of posting individual ensembles runs showing cold as we have seen hundreds and hundred of those. also that no ECM cluster showing proper cold has occurred either. When we see decent runs, we need to look at the background signals to see whether it is likely or not.

I still think there is chance of maybe a week of deep cold during March or April as the PV decays but that is about that.

Inevitably the PV has to decay at some point and all that deep cold has to spill into the mid lattitudes, normally happens in March or even April, but February too early unless we see SSW and as you say no sign of one of those anytime soon.

I had hopes we might see at least some polar maritime air as we entered February with signs the azores high might be held back by the strength of cold coming out of the Canadian Arctic alas doesn't look like happening apart from a fleeting glance on the 4th and into the 5th. I feel similiar to how I did at this stage in winter 19-20, then we were staring at a very stormy mild atlantic driven pattern, and it held sway throughout February, to the point I stopped model watching all month the longest I've ever done this since viewing them way back in about 2003-2004. I'm not forseeing a repeat of 2020 in terms of storminess or wetness, but we could end up with just a drier slightly less mild version which if wanting cold and snow is not very appealing.

I sometimes wish we didn't have all the technology we have easy to hand nowadays to a time when we had to rely on newspaper reports, the BBC reports - especially weatherview and countryfile long range forecasts, and the likes of the Farmers Almanac etc, or musings from forecasters such as Philip Eden.. a simpler time, when you just looked 5 days ahead, without knowledge of any known drivers such as behaviour of the stratosphere, the state of ENSO and the QBO, what the Polar Vortex is all about, the IOD etc etc... perhaps I shall try such tactics again and live in ignorance.. but I'm sure I wouldn't last!

We are certainly being delivered short change here in the UK on the cold and snow front since winter 12-13, as others have said the only significant cold and snow since then widesptead as come courtesy of SSW, notably end Feb/March 2018 and to an extent early Feb 21, though northern parts did well late Dec and much of Jan last year. I'll stay optimistic and say we will see cold and snowy weather again in the heart of winter (not November or after March!!!), and not necessarily as a result of SSW, but no denying the fact our climate seems to have become stuck in a rut last 8 years and it would appear something out of the ordinary may need to happen to shake it out of the base state it has been in.

I'm musing having just reflected on comments Gavin P made this evening on his latest video, where he talks about how the 'drivers' this year were pointing at increased likelihood of a cold winter, but to no avail it hasn't occured. Its not that there is no cold weather about, it just continues to miss western europe for some reason, and NE Canada seems to be a magnet for the PV, I think it is developments over the Pacific that are ruling the roost, and the propensity for NE Pacific ridge development the culprit setting off the trough to NE Canada/USA fuelling the jet and inflating the azores high our way - the latter has definately shifted north in recent years, and is now becoming a semi-permanent feature it seems..

 

[lassie23]

6 minutes ago, Cuban Zebra said:

As I sit here on the 30th Jan I wonder where the last month has gone, the total lack of any cold weather of note and the lack of anything cold now out till the last 3rd of February, the way this pattern has just rinsed and repeated is simply staggering!

As the wise Bill Foggitt used to say “ice in November to bear a duck, rest of the winter nowt but slush and muck”!!!!

not to mention the fog in October bringing snow weather lore, I had zero fog that month and although it isn't an exact science, 9/10 times it translates into a snowless winter. I was expecting nothing from this winter and so far have received nothing, snow wise. Spring might give us our first snowfall, because the October Fog Index doesn't include March.

[C11ady]

In the 48 years iv lived in Buxton iv never ever known a winter like this, but mark my words we will have snow in March.

[Don]

46 minutes ago, jon snow said:

I’ve never known such a poor winter… …well, since last winter! …an all too familiar chart this month, except this one is Feb 9th!… …anyway, looking on the bright side, the days are getting longer, the sun is getting higher…spring is coming!  

 

Last winter was epic compared to this sad excuse, even though I didn’t see a huge amount of snow!

Never mind, perhaps we will get snow in June!

[Don]

3 hours ago, Had Worse said:

Whats that NFC Error, 

No Flaming Cold ?

I was thinking of a slightly different word beginning with F!  

Edited January 30, 2022 by Don

[Don]

58 minutes ago, C11ady said:

mark my words we will have snow in March.

That would suit me just fine!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

There's this strange noise coming from outside. Ooh! It's wind!

Edited January 31, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[PiscesStar]

On 29/01/2022 at 10:45, E17boy said:

Hi peeps,

A really sad one from me today. The pattern at the moment is not showing any deep cold, in fact this morning the emphasis has shifted again towards the Azores high coming to play maybe. Even the NW pattern that showed some hope has somewhat been watered down.

I think deep down a lot of us coldies in our hearts know that this winter is going away from the clutches of our hands. As the days go past sadly the feeling that it’s all over now becomes stronger. I personally think this is it now unless a drastic change happens , I think it’s fair to say deep down that we can kiss goodbye to the dreams we had for this season .

Sadly a season that will be remembered for offering so much hope, but in reality one that broke our hearts. I have always said the Azores high has been a spoiler of many of our winters and this is another one to add to that list.

In another 9 months time we will be looking to see what next winter brings. Where our lucky numbers for our jackpot lie who knows.

With regret sadly this season has come to a close for me.

Take care all

stay safe

 

Very dramatic but warranted. Every attempt at anything wintry scuppered by either the PV over USA or jet stream and the poxy azores high which we all know will bugger off once spring comes so yea the winter that synoptics wise provided some fabulous charts but we're only ever for taunting us by showing how much Greece and Turkey got.. Ridiculous really.... Sad. 

[Weather-history]

I wonder if January will turnout to be more anticyclonic than any of the coming summer months? 

[joggs]

Well,I quite enjoyed the settled few weeks this month. It has been a truly awful winter re snow but we did get a couple of inches on the 28th November. I gave up a couple of weeks ago for the rest of winter.  One thing I suppose,next winter surely can't be as bad as this winter for a coldie

Edited January 31, 2022 by joggs

[sundog]

I think we can  safely say at this stage that last winter was NOT a teaser winter.  Last winter was our bloody winter i think lol.

[TwisterGirl81]

I don't think most in the north have had a bad winter, they've had snow and storms which is more than us southerners have got this winter, it's been kinda 'meh' 

Bring on an early sustained warm and sunny start to spring i say  

 

Edited January 31, 2022 by TwisterGirl81

[Staffmoorlands]

23 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

I don't think most in the north have had a bad winter, they've had snow and storms which is more than us southerners have got this winter, it's been kinda 'meh' 

Bring on an early sustained warm and sunny start to spring i say  

 

We have had 3 spells of snow, 1 in November, 1 in December and 1 in early January. 5 days of snow falling and 8 days of snow on the ground

 

[Freeze]

15 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

We have had 3 spells of snow, 1 in November, 1 in December and 1 in early January. 5 days of snow falling and 8 days of snow on the ground

 

3 spells of snow? That's more than I've seen in 10 years. Appreciate it.

[Nick L]

20 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

We have had 3 spells of snow, 1 in November, 1 in December and 1 in early January. 5 days of snow falling and 8 days of snow on the ground

 

Staffordshire has done very well in the last couple of years. Was never this snowy when I grew up there!

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, joggs said:

Well,I quite enjoyed the settled few weeks this month. It has been a truly awful winter re snow but we did get a couple of inches on the 28th November. I gave up a couple of weeks ago for the rest of winter.  One thing I suppose,next winter surely can't be as bad as this winter for a coldie

This winter has been completely different so far from the likes of the horror shows of 2013-14 / 2019-20 etc.  The main thing about this winter has just been the complete failure of the pattern to come together to bring a proper cold spell to the UK, in spite of the charts at times getting half way to this.  This January overall has not been as mild as some in previous years after the first three days, but it is just the lack of proper cold synoptics bringing deep cold to the UK that has been just as remarkable as the likes of Jan 2014 / 2020 etc.  December although mild for a few days in mid-month and notably so in the closing days was also more of a "stalemate nothingness" sort of pattern the rest of the time.

[SqueakheartLW]

Guessing my winter forecast of a colder than average January is a big bust then. Was predicted to be an anomaly of -0.74C below the 1991-2020 mean of 4.66C which would have made it 3.92C.

We are provisionally standing at 5.06C provisional up to the 29th which is +0.40C above the 1991-2020 mean.

Just to get us down to average of 4.66C for January needs us to register 2 ice days with a mean CET of -1.17C on the 30th and again on the 31st. Possible but extremely unlikely to verify like that so an above average January is a dead cert now.

To get us down to what my winter forecast predicted at 3.92C the 30th and 31st will provisionally need to be means of -12.64C on both the 30th and 31st so no chance. Never seen a daily mean CET value anywhere close to these values.

[Weatherman_93]

Looking good for us mild lovers over the next few days 

[Kasim Awan]

59 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Staffordshire has done very well in the last couple of years. Was never this snowy when I grew up there!

Depends where in Staffordshire, big difference between Stoke and the moorlands.

13 hours ago, C11ady said:

In the 48 years iv lived in Buxton iv never ever known a winter like this, but mark my words we will have snow in March.

Not sure about March snow tbh. Just doesn't seem to be enough easterly momentum atm.

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Depends where in Staffordshire, big difference between Stoke and the moorlands.

Not sure about March snow tbh. Just doesn't seem to be enough easterly momentum atm.

My parents live at the total opposite end of the county in Staffordshire (Cannock), they've had loads of snow events in the last couple of winters. More than I've had in 8 winters in Buckinghamshire.

Edited January 31, 2022 by Nick L

[Froze were the Days]

14 hours ago, Cuban Zebra said:

As the wise Bill Foggitt used to say “ice in November to bear a duck, rest of the winter nowt but slush and muck”!!!!

Since when did we get Ice in November?...the first Ice I've seen on birdbaths etc. was in January, but agreed a terrible winter for chasing any cold or snow.

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, Nick L said:

My parents live at the total opposite end of the county in Staffordshire (Cannock), they've had loads of snow events in the last couple of winters. More than I've had in 8 winters in Buckinghamshire.

Only last winter really brought a decent number of snow events here. Had over 100cm in total 2020/21. Winters 18/19 and 19/20 were both very poor. 2014/15 to 2017/18 were a slightly better run. Even 2015/16 was snowier (in Jan & Mar 2016. This winter so far 12cm - discounting the 25cm which fell on 27th November 2021.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

3 hours ago, sundog said:

I think we can  safely say at this stage that last winter was NOT a teaser winter.  Last winter was our bloody winter i think lol.

I was also hoping that last winter was a teaser Winter. Then again I thought at the time Winter 17/18 was going to be a teaser Winter only for it to be followed by two pretty rubbish ones. 

So I think I've learned one colder and snowier winter doesn't mean a new trend. 

I think it goes back to Winter 08/09 which really was a teaser Winter as it was followed by two even colder and more snowy winters (3 if you count 12/13 despite there being one milder winter in between) but it seems that any single colder winter that comes up could just as easily, or even more likely be just a one off. 

Then again we had 4 mild winters between 12/13 and 17/18 and 2 between 17/18 and 20/21 so maybe we'll only have this one between 20/21 and 22/23 . We can but hope I suppose.

[Robbie Coldrain]

First chance to cut the grass this season. I think autumn and spring are squeezing winter out of fashion.