Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Mapantz]

15 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Correlation does not necessarily equal causation.

I want to know how chaos theory knows that it is September?!  

[Nick L]

12 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I want to know how chaos theory knows that it is September?!  

Because the Christmas adverts have started.

[Summer8906]

44 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

 

I have looked back in the records and, in recent decades anyway, the warmest September that I have found that has been followed by a decent winter for cold was 1985, whose September had a CET of 14.6.  My conclusion is that when September is cool or even close to average there does not appear to be a pattern on the type of winter that follows.  There certainly appears to be a strong link that if September is significantly warm (say more than 1*C above average) it appears that it is very rare to get a cold winter to follow it, and the theory has certainly been a strong one in recent times at least.  

That said, it appears that it is still possible to have a September that is "slightly above average," rather than significantly warm, like in 2009 (CET 14.2), (1978 was also 14.2) and get a cold winter to follow, and we just scraped in with 1985's 14.6.  (It would be difficult to consider a September really warm to test the theory, if it is only around half a degree above average).

On the other hand I think that really warm Septembers (CETs 15*C and above), or possibly high 14s or more, are really bad news if you want a decent winter to follow, and recent times have clearly shown this, and even recent winters with other good background signals have still not brought much in the way of proper cold patterns after really warm Septembers.

The September averages are as follows (1961-90 13.6; 1971-2000 13.7; 1981-2010 14.0; 1991-2020 14.2).  Based on this I would say that a September CET from the high 14s upwards could be considered warm.  On top of this, September 2021s CET of 15.9 was the seventh warmest on record back to 1659.  So I would say that when you have a September that is in the top ten warmest on record then this winter was certainly written off last September.

I think the warm September + mild winter theory, or at least not favouring a colder winter to follow, is as strong a link in the UKs weather patterns, as mild Februarys not favouring a cold March to follow.  I was also doing some research on that recently, and found that notably mild Februarys (above 6*C CET) in recent times at least, have nearly always followed by mild Marches (over 7.5 CET); in recent times only 1995 was followed by a colder March, and in 2011 and 2020 the March CET was not in the 7.5+ category.  That said the mild February = mild March theory clearly does not always work the other way round (1991, 1994, 1981 being examples).  On the other side of the September theory, it appears that it is not clear that there is any trend in the type of winter that follows.  

While nothing in the British weather patterns appears to guarantee cold weather for the UK, my conclusion is that really warm Septembers do not favour colder conditions during the following winter; in the same way really mild Februarys do not favour colder weather in the March to follow.

 

It does seem odd that the rest of autumn - October and November - does not show a similar pattern though. October 1995 for instance was very warm, followed by a cold winter. October 1978 was also I believe very warm - I do have vague memories of the month but it was the dryness rather than the warmth that stood out. But being very young then, maybe I didn't have a clear idea of what the normal temperature for October was.

The Feb-March persistence (April also to some degree) makes sense as the months follow on from each other, but it's odd that Sep has more bearing on the winter than the later autumn months of Oct and Nov.

Edited January 29, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

Back to today, and it seems damp Atlantic air has moved in. Some drizzle overnight and mild, damp and humid today. We did get a cold morning yesterday though with a further (slight) frost.

Wondering how the final temp values for this month in the south of England (specifically) will turn out? I know many have commented that it's been a cold month, but to me it hasn't seemed that cold, in fact by day, somewhat milder than average. True we had many cold nights in the middle third, from around the 11th-21st, but the days didn't seem that cold (maybe 8 or 9C), the impression was more of a frosty high in mid-November rather than mid-January.

The only period that actually did seem cold - for the time of year - was the recent dry, dull spell from the 21st to the 25th, plus the sunny day on the 20th. Temps were typically around 6C then so slightly below the average.

With the mild end, mild start, and given the mid-month figures which someone posted a week or two back, I'd be expecting a mean max for most southern districts of between 8 and 9C, so around 1.5C above average. Minima perhaps around average, so maybe +0.75C anomaly overall? With milder weather in the north, the CET will presumably be clearly above average.

Closest match I can think of overall was the year 2000, which like this year, had a mild, changeable start and end with a lengthy anticyclonic spell midmonth - but I think in 2000, the day maxima in the anticyclonic spell were a couple of degrees down on this year.

It is of note though that I am not seeing nature develop prematurely this year, as happened in 2020 and 2016 - despite the very mild December and start to January. No sign of daffodils or plum blossom imminent yet. Presumably the number of frosts, and the recent dull, cold spell, have been enough to convince nature that it's still winter.

Edited January 29, 2022 by Summer8906

[Don]

32 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

 

It does seem odd that the rest of autumn - October and November - does not show a similar pattern though. October 1995 for instance was very warm, followed by a cold winter. October 1978 was also I believe very warm - I do have vague memories of the month but it was the dryness rather than the warmth that stood out.

October 1995 was also very dry as was 1978 (I think?).  There was thought to be a link between warm/dry Octobers and cold winters to follow.

As for this February, it looks like a 2014 and 2020 repeat?!  Not good at all.....

 

Edited January 29, 2022 by Don

[Summer8906]

14 minutes ago, Don said:

October 1995 was also very dry as was 1978 (I think?).  There was thought to be a link between warm/dry Octobers and cold winters to follow.

As for this February, it looks like a 2014 and 2020 repeat?!  Not good at all.....

 

Doesn't look quite like a 2014 or 2020 repeat down here, more like just mild, cloudy and bland with occasional sunny interludes when polar air gets in and occasional drizzly spells. Some sign of something more disturbed midmonth on GFS 06Z but that's some way off.

Met Office also suggesting mild but not wet in their monthly outlook. Interestingly for late month they use the term 'warm' rather than 'mild', unusual for winter, which suggests (to me) something sunnier and more settled but who knows?

Perhaps some similarities to February 2000, which was very westerly but ISTR pressure wasn't so low in the south, so even though there was extensive Atlantic activity, we missed most of the worst down here and we had some decent dry sunny weather at times (in particular I remember the middle two weekends of Feb 2000 being nice). Perhaps a warm sunny March this year, again based on historical analogues.

 

Edited January 29, 2022 by Summer8906

[Don]

13 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Perhaps some similarities to February 2000, which was very westerly but ISTR pressure wasn't so low in the south, so even though there was extensive Atlantic activity, we missed most of the worst down here and we had some decent dry sunny weather at times (in particular I remember the middle two weekends of Feb 2000 being nice). Perhaps a warm sunny March this year, again based on historical analogues.

Either way a very poor outlook for cold/snow seekers for February and probably March!  Another winter down the pan! 

[sundog]

Well after all is said and done regarding this winter those that got this winter the most correct where those who warned about  last September being very warm and the  likelihood of a dud of a winter. 

To me it adds even more weight to the argument. 

[Freeze]

All this warm September equals mild winter stuff is really annoying now, it's just a quirk. It's like saying if March is wet, we're going to have a dry summer, nonsense! 

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Freeze said:

All this warm September equals mild winter stuff is really annoying now, it's just a quirk. It's like saying if March is wet, we're going to have a dry summer, nonsense! 

It's bunk!

[Nick L]

21 minutes ago, sundog said:

Well after all is said and done regarding this winter those that got this winter the most correct where those who warned about  last September being very warm and the  likelihood of a dud of a winter. 

To me it adds even more weight to the argument. 

It really doesn't. Meteorology is a science and this is far from a scientific approach to proving the hypothesis that "Warm September = crap winter".

Just to add, I'm not completely discounting the idea that there's a link. But until someone can actually highlight and prove there are reasons for the apparent link, then it is not something to reliably use as a long range forecasting tool.

Edited January 29, 2022 by Nick L

[SummerShower]

3 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Closest match I can think of overall was the year 2000, which like this year, had a mild, changeable start and end with a lengthy anticyclonic spell midmonth - but I think in 2000, the day maxima in the anticyclonic spell were a couple of degrees down on this year.

Yes I was thinking January 2000 was very similar to this year.  Mild, unsettled start with a 'nothing' type anticyclonic spell and then a very mild end.  I think the CET will be on a par (4.9 or thereabouts), but could this be the driest January since 1997?

From a weather enthusiasts view, one of the most boring winters ever is unfolding.  However, it's been very usable indeed if you're out and about (not too cold, wet or icy)

[Mapantz]

If you spent enough wasted time, you could probably say that mild weather on February 14th might mean a warm July 20th.. it literally means nothing..

Pattern finding is built in to human nature. Physics has no idea of dates.

[Weather-history]

30 minutes ago, Freeze said:

All this warm September equals mild winter stuff is really annoying now, it's just a quirk. It's like saying if March is wet, we're going to have a dry summer, nonsense! 

What is really annoying me is that no one is giving an explanation why this possibly could be?

They present the data and say the data largely fits the theory.  Well that's poor science, IMO and not good enough for me. You can't just leave at that, you have to explain why this would be.

September is a manmade creation. In reality, September is just a specific time period in the Earth's orbit. 

So if the UK is warm during that specific period of the Earth's orbit, in what we call September, why would it mean that you are unlikely, overall, to have below average temperatures in the UK during another specific period in the Earth's orbit (in this case, it is what we call "winter")? 

So are we saying regardless of solar activity, ENSO, IOD, this, that, whatever...if September is warm for the UK, then it is unlikely the following winter will be below average.

Does that really make any logical sense? 

[North-Easterly Blast]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

What is really annoying me is that no one is giving an explanation why this possibly could be?

They present the data and say the data largely fits the theory.  Well that's poor science, IMO and not good enough for me. You can't just leave at that, you have to explain why this would be.

September is a manmade creation. In reality, September is just a specific time period in the Earth's orbit. 

So if the UK is warm during that specific period of the Earth's orbit, in what we call September, why would it mean that you are unlikely, overall, to have below average temperatures in the UK during another specific period in the Earth's orbit (in this case, it is what we call "winter")? 

So are we saying regardless of solar activity, ENSO, IOD, this, that, whatever...if September is warm for the UK, then it is unlikely the following winter will be below average.

Does that really make any logical sense? 

It appears that way - the warm September = mild winter theory appears to be as strong a background signal that makes it very rare to get a cold winter to follow in the UK, in the same way that a strong ocean temperature anomaly either way in terms of ENSO, IOD etc, westerly QBO, around or just after solar maximum appear to reduce the chances of UK winter cold.

[Methuselah]

Piers Corbyn might even spot a correlation between Covid boosters in October and dry Januarys?

[Summer8906]

5 hours ago, Don said:

Either way a very poor outlook for cold/snow seekers for February and probably March!  Another winter down the pan! 

To be honest I would mostly agree, as once we get a strong jetstream this time of year, it tends not to disrupt until after the spring equinox. However it commonly does move north and/or south, which means that while Feb and March tend to share westerliness, they do not necessarily share cyclonicity/anticyclonicity. However in many such years we can get late snow in April, perhaps that's our best chance this year!

I think I would take a March like 2000, or even more so, 1997 (another historical analogue though obviously we didn't get the cold start this year!)

Best chance of something wintry is if the flow veers to the NW, this doesn't happen often but a notable example is March 1995 when we did get a northwesterly which gave even lowland southern England some snow early in the month.

The analogue with the worst outlook I think is 1989. That year January was anticyclonic, though the pattern was further south which meant it was consistently very mild with little in the way of frost. February continued in the same vein until around the 13th, before a very prolonged cyclonic SW-ly type set in, ensuring that both Feb and March were both mild and wet overall, and also dull, IIRC. It relented just in time for the (early) Easter, with Easter 1989 being one of the warmer and sunnier ones, despite being in March! But then April 1989 was cold and wet: Feb-Mar-Apr 1989 being perhaps the 'worst' Feb-Mar-Apr period I've experienced. Just as well an epic summer then followed!

I don't think there has been a year other than 1989 when both Feb and March have been both milder and wetter than normal in recent times. While snow maybe difficult at least that's some good news.

Edited January 29, 2022 by Summer8906

[78/79]

Winter or Summer, our climate doesn't really have much going for it.

[knocker]

I am wondering whether it would be humane to close the main model thread as the cries of pain and despair are quite disturbing.

Edited January 29, 2022 by knocker

[snowrye]

You can put your house on the fact, that come spring, the azores bu((er, will disappear. And the washout will start

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

I am wondering whether it would be humane to close the main model thread as the cries of pain and despair are quite disturbing.

I just watched Fantasy Island, which took my mind off things!

[Kasim Awan]

4 hours ago, Mapantz said:

If you spent enough wasted time, you could probably say that mild weather on February 14th might mean a warm July 20th.. it literally means nothing..

Pattern finding is built in to human nature. Physics has no idea of dates.

Not quite true, if anything your post demonstrates a lack of respect for others who are studying temporal lag, and a close minded scientific method. Physics has temporal connections, i.e. event a is more likely to occurr at t seconds after event. This is common knowledge waves etc. Definitely not on a day by day basic at the seasonal temporal scale as you describe but certainly possible on a monthly / seasonal scale. 

Edited January 29, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Not quite true, quite an arrogant statement really. Physics has temporal connections, i.e. event a is more likely to occurr at t seconds after event. 

That's got nothing to do with what I said...

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Not quite true, if anything your post demonstrates a lack of respect for others who are studying temporal lag, and a close minded scientific method. Physics has temporal connections, i.e. event a is more likely to occurr at t seconds after event. This is common knowledge waves etc. Definitely not on a day by day basic at the seasonal temporal scale as you describe but certainly possible on a monthly / seasonal scale. 

I'm not taking a lesson from somebody that thinks the laws of physics have a man-made calendar built in to them .. lol

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

That's got nothing to do with what I said...

I thought your post was disregarding all seasonal scale temporal patterns, however upon reading again it seems you are more disregarding a connection between day variability at a seasonal scale, which is a fair shout actually. Patterns on the seasonal scale are more likely to be found over weekly or monthly weather averages than in day variability. There is definitely a recurring pattern of milder winters following warm Septembers, so much so that the hypothesis of a "warm September indicates a long lasting positive nao is more likely" and "September synoptics are more closely linked to winter synoptics than Oct / Nov due to a lack of Autumnal PV masking" are all valid for research imo. 

[Guest]

Away from Northern most areas I think that's winter over for the most part. More of the same pattern right the way through to March and beyond is looking likely.

Obviously coldies will still be chasing day tenners, but in the noise they will stay.

Let's hope for an early Spring and signs of a fine summer. Although that'll hopefully arrive after some biblical flooding for the UK which is almost a given, likely in March my sources say....

Edited January 29, 2022 by DCee