Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[northwestsnow]

UK winters are now the pits.

 

[snowray]

What I don’t get is why Scandi highs are so rare these days in Winter.

Why can the models get uk highs and Euro highs spot on consistently right out to D10 and beyond but are as useless as ever with any northern blocking, really annoying. 

Edited January 25, 2022 by snowray

[damianslaw]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UK winters are now the pits.

 

Last winter I would class as decent. Good spells of cold snowy weather at times..  Christmas to mid Feb overall was cold.

We do seem to be having predominantly mild ones recently though some exceptionally so, cold spells have been shortlived since 12-13. We've been here before though winter 97-98 through until 08-09... bar a few cold outbreaks was mostly mild. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

33 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Last winter I would class as decent. Good spells of cold snowy weather at times..  Christmas to mid Feb overall was cold.

We do seem to be having predominantly mild ones recently though some exceptionally so, cold spells have been shortlived since 12-13. We've been here before though winter 97-98 through until 08-09... bar a few cold outbreaks was mostly mild. 

Winter 2020-21 was roughly overall average in terms of temperatures - although you are right that late December to mid February overall was cold, in actual fact predominantly so, but without any real major severe spells.  2017-18 was another recent winter that was roughly overall average - it did have a cold spell in the first half of December, a bit of cold zonality in January, and a fairly cold February, with a week's very cold spell late on lasting into March.  That said we have not had a winter that could reasonably be described as a cold one, with a number of significant cold spells since 2012-13.

Winter 2021-22 so far just stands out as a winter where the pattern never came together to bring serious cold to the UK, but apart from the exceptionally mild spell over New Year, it has not been notable for mild zonal weather either.

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Last winter I would class as decent. Good spells of cold snowy weather at times..  Christmas to mid Feb overall was cold.

We do seem to be having predominantly mild ones recently though some exceptionally so, cold spells have been shortlived since 12-13. We've been here before though winter 97-98 through until 08-09... bar a few cold outbreaks was mostly mild. 

Yes ,last winter was OK.

But the overall trend is clear.

[Kasim Awan]

4 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Last winter I would class as decent. Good spells of cold snowy weather at times..  Christmas to mid Feb overall was cold.

We do seem to be having predominantly mild ones recently though some exceptionally so, cold spells have been shortlived since 12-13. We've been here before though winter 97-98 through until 08-09... bar a few cold outbreaks was mostly mild. 

I think we have to lower expectations nowadays, so much so that last winter is defined as solidly cold & snowy. I think since 2017/18 there has been a trend for more blocking, a very subjective statement, however each winter since has produced significant blocking which goes against climatology for at least one major area of Europe. This winter it happens to be sat over the UK, next winter it may be further west, fingers crossed. I think a combination of strong La Nina & positive PDO/AMO are responsible for the blocking shifting south east this year. A sudden pattern change in Summer to more unsettled conditions followed by a colder September would statistically put us in a decent chance of a switch to a more favorable blocking positioning next winter.

[Weather-history]

5 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Last winter I would class as decent. Good spells of cold snowy weather at times..  Christmas to mid Feb overall was cold.

We do seem to be having predominantly mild ones recently though some exceptionally so, cold spells have been shortlived since 12-13. We've been here before though winter 97-98 through until 08-09... bar a few cold outbreaks was mostly mild. 

Manchester Winter Index was 120 for 2020-21, that a pretty decent score. That's higher value than any winter between 1987-88 and 2008-09  barring 1990-91 and 1995-96.

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

2019-20: 29

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

2018-19: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

2017-18: 93

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

2020-21: 120

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

Edited January 26, 2022 by Weather-history

[North-Easterly Blast]

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester Winter Index was 120 for 2020-21, that a pretty decent score. That's higher value than any winter between 1987-88 and 2008-09  barring 1990-91 and 1995-96.

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

2019-20: 29

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

2018-19: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

2017-18: 93

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

2020-21: 120

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

Do you take into account how foggy a winter is when deciding its overall score, as well as snow and frost?  As fog is the white stuff that fills the air and makes the air white away from surfaces, it would be great if all the three "white stuffs"; frost, snow and fog, are factored into the winter index, along with average daytime maximum temperatures.  As fog, at least away from the coast and high ground inland, has traditionally mostly only happened in the colder winter months, it would be great if how foggy a winter is counts for the winter index figure as well as snow and frost.

I am surprised that winter 2019-20 has a score above some of the other poor ones, as colder weather even in the form of short snaps was in very short supply that winter.  What is the score for winter 2021-22 so far by the way?

Edited January 26, 2022 by North-Easterly Blast

[North-Easterly Blast]

4 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

I think we have to lower expectations nowadays, so much so that last winter is defined as solidly cold & snowy. I think since 2017/18 there has been a trend for more blocking, a very subjective statement, however each winter since has produced significant blocking which goes against climatology for at least one major area of Europe. This winter it happens to be sat over the UK, next winter it may be further west, fingers crossed. I think a combination of strong La Nina & positive PDO/AMO are responsible for the blocking shifting south east this year. A sudden pattern change in Summer to more unsettled conditions followed by a colder September would statistically put us in a decent chance of a switch to a more favorable blocking positioning next winter.

You are right.  This winter was nailed against being anything special back in last September with its anomalous warmth, as there appears to be a strong link in anomalously warm patterns in September significantly reducing the chance of cold patterns developing in the following winter, and in any future year, my view is that a cold or at least colder winter will always be very unlikely after a warm September.

I am now wondering if winters like 2017-18 and 2020-21 may now be regarded as "cold" or even "severe" in the UK, and that winters like 2009-10 are dead in the water along with the sort of cold spells of Dec 2010 and what we had in the 2012-13 winter, and if spells like these will ever be seen again.

[snowblind]

On 24/01/2022 at 11:15, SussexSnowman said:

Had more single digit dry days here. Frosts have abated for the last 5 days, but in general I have enjoyed this weather which has been more seasonal. All I need now is a little dumping of snow and I'll be quite content, though models and forecasts not doing their part. 

I agree, 10 air frosts, some very cold days, some sunshine, some fog. Admittedly the last 3 days haven't been great, cloudy and cold, but has felt like winter to me. As you say, could just do with a bit of snow now. I guess it depends on your personal preferences but I think it's been an ok January.

[Kasim Awan]

39 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

You are right.  This winter was nailed against being anything special back in last September with its anomalous warmth, as there appears to be a strong link in anomalously warm patterns in September significantly reducing the chance of cold patterns developing in the following winter, and in any future year, my view is that a cold or at least colder winter will always be very unlikely after a warm September.

I am now wondering if winters like 2017-18 and 2020-21 may now be regarded as "cold" or even "severe" in the UK, and that winters like 2009-10 are dead in the water along with the sort of cold spells of Dec 2010 and what we had in the 2012-13 winter, and if spells like these will ever be seen again.

They will be seen again mate, although if the trend in the last 9 years since 2012/13 is sustained, snaps of 09/10 and 12/13 severity will probably be a 1 in 25 year occurrence like 47,63 and 87 were in the last century. Obviously now severity has massively decreased due to pattern changes (NOT overall ambient temperature increase) so the 1 in 25 year occurrence is much less severe. Doesn't mean fluctuations wont occur, fluctuations will still largely reflect pre 09-10 normal distribution and this is proved by winters 17/18 and 20/21, which when combined with the warming trend means colder winters can be expected but these will be near the 81-2010 average as opposed to significantly below.

I suspect winters aka 17/18 and 20/21 will occupy the 1 in 3 year frequency, 12/13 types the 1 in 10+ year frequency, and 09/10 types nearer 1 in 30 years.

Edited January 26, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[Kasim Awan]

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester Winter Index was 120 for 2020-21, that a pretty decent score. That's higher value than any winter between 1987-88 and 2008-09  barring 1990-91 and 1995-96.

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

2019-20: 29

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

2018-19: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

2017-18: 93

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

2020-21: 120

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

Thanks for posting this. 2014/15 is an interesting one, was a pretty gnarly winter here with around 5 or 6 events of at least 15cm, and one event of 34cm. Quite similar to 2020/21 in a way in that the snow was mostly from cold zonality giving way to slight rises in pressure allowing for a few additional lying snow days. Not sure how the winter index is calculated?

Edited January 26, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[Empire Of Snow]

13 hours ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

It's also good to note the geography of Turkey, especially the north.

Take Istanbul for example. To its southwest is the Sea of Marmara and the Aegean Sea (leading into the Mediterranean). To the northeast is the Black Sea. Istanbul is well away from the Atlantic and its influences are somewhat mitigated. The other side of the Black Sea is Russia.

To the southeast of Turkey lies the Levant and Egypt, with a lot of dry weather and high pressure influence. This high pressure influence often slows the progression of low pressure from moving more east and south (but not always).

If in the winter a cold northerly wind develops, that cold air comes straight down from Finland and west Russia, where temperatures can get as low as -10c/-20c, perhaps colder in some winters. The cold northerly wind crosses the warmer Black Sea, resulting in lake effect snow for northern Turkey. Much of Turkey is mountainous, so even if the air is slightly too mild on the coast at the lower levels it will be colder in the mountains.

If a low develops in the Mediterranean Sea or comes down from the Balkans/W Europe, the warmer drier high pressure to the Eastern Mediterranean mitigates its progress. The cold air from the north combines with the warmer drier air from the southeast, amplifying the low pressure. The low pressure rotates, and with cold air from the north and northwest crossing over the warmer Sea of Marmara and Black Sea it reinvigorates the precipitation, resulting in significant rain/snowfall in the region. If the low becomes particularly intense along with the various factors and temperature contrasts involved, the precipitation becomes heavier, and evaporative cooling comes into the equation for those areas of the region affected by the low where the air is slightly too mild.

In fact with all those factors it isn't surprising if a 'snownado' occurs.

Northern Turkey are in a much better position to get lake/sea effect snow than we are. We need an easterly, straight from Siberia, with low pressure to our south over France/Iberia (as we learnt last year the Netherlands/Germany is too far East for that low). N/NW Japan is in the perfect position, as the wind travels west to east anyway and to their west is NE China, Mongolia and Siberia, which is very cold in Winter, often colder than E Europe is. Japan is also mountainous. Very cold W/NW winds over the warmer Sea of Japan, predominantly westerly winds. No wonder they get among the heaviest snowfall in the world (hence my username).

If we want big snowfall in the UK then better hope the Earth starts rotating the other way so we get E/SE winds most of time. Although logically that wouldn't make sense anyway.

Japan is a different snow beast altogether. They have the semi-permanent stationary Aleutian Low on their East. This is the reason Western Japan (mostly NW) is buried with heavy lake effect snow every single week. 

[Froze were the Days]

This winter looks dead in the water in terms of seeing any deep cold...models are just spewing out +NAO runs now, the odd Pm air mass thrown in but nothing out of the ordinary. Roll on Spring!

[adrianh]

It's been a very boring winter weather wise - not zonal by any means and it's actually been chilly/cold here for weeks now but dull as ditch water with a blanket of gloom more often than not.

[Stephen W]

Anyone know when the driest January/February was on record?  This is turning into one of the driest January's I can remember in a very long while and one of the most boring winters I can recall.  I'm not so sure February is going to be a whole lot different either.  This pattern seems entrenched.  I know a lot of people hate the rain and wind but I'd just like to see a whole pattern reset with some more active/interesting weather, not relentless and for days on end but just to break the monotony of what we currently have.  Also, whilst I appreciate that many are enjoying the dry weather, this could have consequences in the summer as most of our useful rainfall for replenishing reservoirs etc comes in the winter. And, yes, I know most will say we will probably have a wet Spring/Summer now and that's obviously possible but we do still need winter rainfall.

[mb018538]

33 minutes ago, Stephen W said:

Anyone know when the driest January/February was on record?  This is turning into one of the driest January's I can remember in a very long while and one of the most boring winters I can recall.  I'm not so sure February is going to be a whole lot different either.  This pattern seems entrenched.  I know a lot of people hate the rain and wind but I'd just like to see a whole pattern reset with some more active/interesting weather, not relentless and for days on end but just to break the monotony of what we currently have.  Also, whilst I appreciate that many are enjoying the dry weather, this could have consequences in the summer as most of our useful rainfall for replenishing reservoirs etc comes in the winter. And, yes, I know most will say we will probably have a wet Spring/Summer now and that's obviously possible but we do still need winter rainfall.

Not sure - but we're at a crazy 4.7mm for the month here in Cambridge. With only 0-1mm forecast for the remainder of the month, then it has been truly exceptional.

[Weather-history]

4 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Do you take into account how foggy a winter is when deciding its overall score, as well as snow and frost?  As fog is the white stuff that fills the air and makes the air white away from surfaces, it would be great if all the three "white stuffs"; frost, snow and fog, are factored into the winter index, along with average daytime maximum temperatures.  As fog, at least away from the coast and high ground inland, has traditionally mostly only happened in the colder winter months, it would be great if how foggy a winter is counts for the winter index figure as well as snow and frost.

I am surprised that winter 2019-20 has a score above some of the other poor ones, as colder weather even in the form of short snaps was in very short supply that winter.  What is the score for winter 2021-22 so far by the way?

I don't include fog. 

The  index for this winter is about 19 at the moment 

[Weather-history]

4 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

Not sure how the winter index is calculated?

10 x [(number of days with falling sleet/snow) + (number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of air frosts/minima at or below 0C)]  divided by mean maximum temperature.

[Neilsouth]

So many days now it's been cloudy and windy with it feeling cold, my back is killing me, my bones are hurting I've never felt like this before for such a long period of time!  Suffering from SAD too which isn't helping. Was hoping to go out today but it's only 6C and there's no sun still

[James1979]

After nearly 35 years I gave up having weather as a hobby last year, thered been simply too much of a change to nothingness imby and it's a pointless frustrating hobby for someone that loved the variety or used to get.  This winter has verified that decision. Utter borefest with zero action and another season of the perma grey lid. Another summer ahead of next to no storms awaits no doubt.  The climate in SE England is atrocious now. 

[Froze were the Days]

8 minutes ago, James1979 said:

After nearly 35 years I gave up having weather as a hobby last year, thered been simply too much of a change to nothingness imby and it's a pointless frustrating hobby for someone that loved the variety or used to get.  This winter has verified that decision. Utter borefest with zero action and another season of the perma grey lid. Another summer ahead of next to no storms awaits no doubt.  The climate in SE England is atrocious now. 

Very interesting! exactly the same here, I've been recording daily Winter records that go back to 1983/84 and last Winter I finally made the decision to stop doing them and just jotted down an analysis of each month (and noteworthy days) on the back of many recent winters with little variation or cold spells, saying that last February's cold week was probably the coldest here in Essex for daily maxes going back to Jan 1997 and I did think to myself if I should carry on...this winter has proved me correct.

Edited January 26, 2022 by Froze were the Days

[Climate Man]

8 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Very interesting! exactly the same here, I've been recording daily Winter records that go back to 1983/84 and last Winter I finally made the decision to stop doing them and just jotted down an analysis of each month (and noteworthy days) on the back of many recent winters with little variation or cold spells, saying that last February's cold week was probably the coldest here in Essex for daily maxes going back to Jan 1997 and I did think to myself if I should carry on...this winter has proved me correct.

And yet climate change is supposed to produce more extremes as a result of more energy. I too have noticed a reduction in extreme weather types. Would love to see some wind data.  As we become more reliant on wind power it seems to decline.

[damianslaw]

19 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

And yet climate change is supposed to produce more extremes as a result of more energy. I too have noticed a reduction in extreme weather types. Would love to see some wind data.  As we become more reliant on wind power it seems to decline.

Supposed to be having very wet winters... 

[Climate Man]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Supposed to be having very wet winters... 

Mmmmmm.....