Model output discussion 11/12/21

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 15/12/2021 at 04:58, feb1991blizzard said:

its more than just a good run now, its jan 79 esque, rampant blizzards sweeping across the country.

Yeah gives a fair fall across the country

[Lukesluckybunch]

GEM dont even look!

[Kasim Awan]

Gfs ens look more primed for an undercut etc at 174h compared with 18z. Focus is now on dissolving the iberian high to allow a favourable med profile.

 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

GEM dont even look!

Too early yet, look at it 240h and focus on it having the gfs pattern rather than specifics

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Yeah gives a fair fall across the country

Apart from Crewe ❄

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 15/12/2021 at 05:00, Lukesluckybunch said:

GEM dont even look!

It's that LP across the Atlantic at D5...Positive tilt. It's why the UKMO is not great too. 

We don't need that spinning up and cutting across the heights attempting to ridge into Greenland.

Look at the tilt of the GFS-

 

Now look at the GEM-

Edited December 15, 2021 by CreweCold

[Kasim Awan]

Hideous gfs control and gem op, again this is why I am concerned about the Iberian heights. Btw, just because I make an observation about an aspect of the output, it doesn't mean that I'm supportive of that as an outcome. I feel some are presuming this when reading others posts.

[tight isobar]

We get there on this mornings- @ gfs - but what’s gained is taken away in other outs, but to be expected! Atm. 

[Mucka]

Off to bed.

Enjoy the ECM everyone. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 15/12/2021 at 05:08, Kasim Awan said:

Hideous gfs control and gem op, again this is why I am concerned about the Iberian heights. Btw, just because I make an observation about an aspect of the output, it doesn't mean that I'm supportive of that as an outcome. I feel some are presuming this when reading others posts.

It's not as good as the op but still not horrendous. Look over Russia, there's a building ridge which means the European cold will have to move SW at some point...even if it barrels around on itself for a while.

In the game big time in that scenario, even with a poorer initial Atlantic profile.

We need to let this play out for a few days. Complete flux right now. 

There is definitely potential Christmas to New Year though. Usual caveats that I've been mentioning the past few days however...we're far from nailed on to get a wintry spell. 

Edited December 15, 2021 by CreweCold

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, CreweCold said:

It's not as good as the op but still not horrendous. Look over Russia, there's a building ridge which means the European cold will have to move SW at some point...even if it barrels around on itself for a while.

In the game big time in that scenario, even with a poorer initial Atlantic profile

It's a more exciting evolution than a high being stuck over us endlessly. A high risk high reward option.

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 15/12/2021 at 05:16, Kasim Awan said:

It's a more exciting evolution than a high being stuck over us endlessly. A high risk high reward option.

Yes that UK HP scenario was very low excitement and completely underwhelming.

[Kasim Awan]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There is definitely potential Christmas to New Year though. Usual caveats that I've been mentioning the past few days however...we're far from nailed on to get a wintry spell. 

Imo it's still a 5050 for a properly cold & wintry Xmas. Gfs mean is a bit ugly; but as youbsay this new outcome seen is far from resolved yet so let's just play it out 

Edited December 15, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[SLEETY]

The depth of cold building out East, I would be amazed if the UK misses out completely, might take a couple of attempts before it gets over to us. 

The models aren't handling any of this very well  they are almost useless when the weather isn't being driven by the  Atlantic in the Winter. 

Edited December 15, 2021 by SLEETY

[Lukesluckybunch]

the mean at 180 is very good,decent ridging slightly further north!

[tight isobar]

On 15/12/2021 at 05:18, Kasim Awan said:

Imo it's still a 5050 for a properly cold & wintry Xmas.

I’d have the 80/20 Ona cold Xmas period.... the wintery @ snow etc... yeah I’d say 50/50 about correct .... Atm .

Edited December 15, 2021 by tight isobar

[northwestsnow]

UKMO 144

UKMO 168

Edited December 15, 2021 by northwestsnow

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ukmo 168

Can the block collapse into Scandy ?

Doesn't look like it. That's a sinker to me.

Come on ECM old buddy. Don't let me down.

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Sadly going in the wrong direction imo. Gfs ens are pretty rotten around christmas with a big chunk of them actually bringing the Atlantic back in. Gem poor too. Need a big ecm or gonna be some toys thrown in here I think.

[tight isobar]

On 15/12/2021 at 05:33, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Sadly going in the wrong direction imo. Gfs ens are pretty rotten around christmas with a big chunk of them actually bringing the Atlantic back in. Gem poor too. Need a big ecm or gonna be some toys thrown in here I think.

Think of it like this @broadscale- possibly a last hurrah in the models doing what they do best.. looking for a default solution. And looking for programmed AT/mobility format. I truly believe this to be the case atm....

Edited December 15, 2021 by tight isobar

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Sadly going in the wrong direction imo. Gfs ens are pretty rotten around christmas with a big chunk of them actually bringing the Atlantic back in. Gem poor too. Need a big ecm or gonna be some toys thrown in here I think.

just to state that on the 23rd of december the GFS op os slighlty milder than the mean!infact there are at least 10 members that go colder than the op.

[jvenge]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ukmo 168

Can the block collapse into Scandy ?

Trawling through the ensembles and looking at the mean from the 18z ECM ensembles I doubt high pressure goes into Scandinavia on the first attempt. But it's possible I suppose. 

Some kind of riding over the UK and reaching towards Iceland and perhaps on into Greenland seems the form horse. It would be nice if the models could make a decision on that today. 

But looking at how things are playing out I'd say for the next month or so there are going to be many bites at the cherry. Even the UK can't miss out on each. Can it? 

[nick sussex]

The GFS does provide some fireworks for coldies over Christmas .

However the shape of the upstream troughing doesn’t look favourable day 8 and it performs a high wire act after that to get some energy running se .

Really not convinced by its evolution as it relies on so many things going right at the same time and could easily unravel .

You really need a more elongated troughing running nw se and more energy going in that direction from day 8 .

Anyway let’s hope the ECM can plot a route forward that has a lot more margin for error .

Edited December 15, 2021 by nick sussex

[mulzy]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Think of it like this @broadscale- possibly a last hurrah in the models doing what they do best.. looking for a default solution. And looking for programmed AT/mobility format. I truly believe this to be the cast atm....

This morning’s GEFS following last night’s EPS.  Quite progressive with a southerly tracking jet.  Just need the pattern a little bit further south to calm our nerves.  We are still in the game albeit trending the wrong way slightly.

[Chesil View]

6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

This morning’s GEFS following last night’s EPS.  Quite progressive with a southerly tracking jet.  Just need the pattern a little bit further south to calm our nerves.  We are still in the game albeit trending the wrong way slightly.

Indeed Mulzy. The 0z gfs gives the Southern half of the UK a snowy 3 or 4 days between Xmas and New year.

[jules216]

Spot the difference