Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[winterof79]

Our incoming low has turned into a Dinosaur from a scared mouse..think i am losing it

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

GFS slightly south with the high at 84, god this is getting exhausting haha  

Low pressure in the Atlantic  held back slightly westwards. Don’t think this run is going to make things any clearer.

[Ravelin]

At t102 the low is more slightly elongated than the previous run...

 

Not yet making much different on 850s across the UK though.

Edited December 20, 2021 by Ravelin

[winterof79]

GFS not giving up ........commonnnnn my san

Edited December 20, 2021 by winterof79

[Singularity]

Tome the big question continues to be whether the low from Florida utilises the steep thermal gradient  to its west to deepens enough that it becomes the dominant player over the low to its east.

GFS & GEM & ICON say yes, UKMO no.

ECM... says yes but no but! Reason appears to be a shortwave low that scoots between the western & eastern lows on day 4. Judging by the EPS that was either a spurious feature that led to huge errors later, or something only the highest resolution run was able to resolve.

The mind boggles.

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

GFS not giving up ........commonnnnn my san

Cheeky small area of HP off west coast of Norway helping here

[Ravelin]

Slightly better 850s at t120....

 

[winterof79]

Easterly feed i will get naff all eaten on Christmas day at this rate for looking out the window

[Ali1977]

Edited December 20, 2021 by Ali1977

[sheikhy]

Jesus christ wa is the gfs doing!!!!!this is almost back to where we were 48 hours ago!!

[MattStoke]

A white Christmas (rain turning to snow in the evening) for more of the Midlands, Wales and Northern Ireland on this run. 0’C isotherm about 50 miles further south.

[Battleground Snow]

@sheikhy  exclamation marks incoming!

 

Edited December 20, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Malarky]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Jesus christ wa is the gfs doing!!!!!this is almost back to where we were 48 hours ago!!

We. Are. Still. In. This. Game!!

[Ali1977]

How on earth is this back 

[Midlander]

The emotional rollercoaster continues 

[ICE COLD]

Snow line moving south

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Jesus christ wa is the gfs doing!!!!!this is almost back to where we were 48 hours ago!!

Modelling the cold air winning as does occur in these situations

[TSNWK]

Well gfs is sticking with its 00z and if anything thrown in a couple more chips at 144.. 

[Malarky]

[Decemberof2010]

GFS tells the fat lady to keep her mouth shut. Well at least until the 12z’s

 

[The Northern Ramper]

Don’t need to view any more, on to the 12’s.

[ICE COLD]

Giving me head ache

[weathercold]

WTF!

[weathercold]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

How on earth is this back 

Never known anything like this…

[sheikhy]

Dunno wa to say anymore lol!!!!ecm has to be wrong at just 4 days out with the low in the eastern states!!the ecm looked a weird run between 96 and 144 hours!!!i felt like it didnt know what to do around the atlantic sector and lost the plot!!