Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[Scott Ingham]

23 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. A bit of an update from the team. Reasons to be joyful this morning from the NWPs ? Certainly so from the UKMO , which gathers the switch to cold at some pace. Looking at the latest fax chart , there is some input to show both a advance of what I would take as the Arctic front and also the Atlantic front heading from the SW approaches. Looks like the clash of the different types is to take place Christmas Night into Boxing Day. Of course , the ECM jet is so different with its jet position compared to GFS and wants to keep any attempt of cold domination over the British Isles  to its Northern Reaches. So there still remains a doubt but the signals are now positively turning to a cold transfer into most of the British Isles by the end of Boxing Day.

The team have access to a powerful  fine mesh snow computer which it uses to provides the resort with amazing snow predictions with its close grid co-ordinates. It also has a facility to produce outer perimeter results with its early runs (ERL) providing snow fall amount predictions with -in the (36-60 hr) time span. So we are not in that time zone just yet. However, the snow forecasting tool has a wider grid co-ordinate that flags up potential snow with-in its outer reaches. So looking at the British Isles, it currently shows the greatest snow potential Christmas Night into Boxing Day in a zone  with a more acute NW/SE alignment than yesterday, looks like County Sligo, North Wales, Southern Pennines into North Midlands, but the experts think this could correct very quickly with events gather a pace now. All sounds very exciting for you lot !

Hope this helps.

C

I was just about to post these areas as the sweet spot going off all models.

Regionals could be important in my opinion as i believe its game over now on christmas day and a good chunk of boxing day for the south. The far south especially.

(Dont bite my head off at that if you live in these areas as its just my opinion based on all this mornings runs and factoring in space for further model bias adjustments.

Areas like Sheffield, Derby, Leicester...

Plenty of interest for these areas with short range modelling soon to be important!

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

Anything scientific?

because it just looks to marginal for me here the whole pattern,we are not looking at a proper easterly setting up we are relying on sliders to keep us in the game.also the block over greenland appears to be under too much pressure.

Edited December 21, 2021 by Lukesluckybunch
adding

[The Northern Ramper]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I was just about to post these areas as the sweet spot going off all models.

Regionals could be important in my opinion as i believe its game over now on christmas day and a good chunk of boxing day for the south. The far south especially.

(Dont bite my head off at that if you live in these areas as its just my opinion based on all this mornings runs and factoring in space for further model bias adjustments.

Areas like Sheffield, Derby, Leicester...

Plenty of interest for these areas with short range modelling soon to be important!

The usual suspects.

[Radiating Dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I was just about to post these areas as the sweet spot going off all models.

Regionals could be important in my opinion as i believe its game over now on christmas day and a good chunk of boxing day for the south. The far south especially.

(Dont bite my head off at that if you live in these areas as its just my opinion based on all this mornings runs and factoring in space for further model bias adjustments.

Areas like Sheffield, Derby, Leicester...

Plenty of interest for these areas with short range modelling soon to be important!

It was never game on for us in the south.

This does feel like the last knockings of winter, everyone getting excited at some possible slush near the end of March after a mild winter.

[Laurence]

3 hours ago, TSNWK said:

As I said yesterday ECM is big beast!  think oil tanker.. she will turn slowly...

Todays 96 looks much better than yesterday 120 synoptic wise.  

 

Just like to say that regardless of size only a couple of days back the models were turning on a sixpence.

[TSNWK]

6 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

Will these be cold enough?

 

UKV very good for Southern England at midnight Boxing Day btw.. new to Netweather extra.. I finally joined 

No apart from Scottish Highlands WB needs to be zero and below..

Out of interest what model is that from please?

[Liam Burge]

1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

It was never game on for us in the south.

This does feel like the last knockings of winter, everyone getting excited at some possible slush near the end of March after a mild winter.

Wouldn't be so sure about this

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I was just about to post these areas as the sweet spot going off all models.

Regionals could be important in my opinion as i believe its game over now on christmas day and a good chunk of boxing day for the south. The far south especially.

(Dont bite my head off at that if you live in these areas as its just my opinion based on all this mornings runs and factoring in space for further model bias adjustments.

Areas like Sheffield, Derby, Leicester...

Plenty of interest for these areas with short range modelling soon to be important!

 

What model bias are you factoring in?

[swilliam]

Icon was an improvement in terms of the low profiles for the lows to the SW

0z followed by 06z

Reflected in the position of the precipitation

The issue though is the cold air has not made any further progress

Until we get this no real improvement is being made.

 

Its similar for the improvement on the ECM this morning

This is the improvement I shall be looking for this evening

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

It was never game on for us in the south.

This does feel like the last knockings of winter, everyone getting excited at some possible slush near the end of March after a mild winter.

It still is.. nothing can be ruled out just yet. 
also it’s literally first day of winter today! Plenty of time if some don’t get snow from this!

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

It was never game on for us in the south.

This does feel like the last knockings of winter, everyone getting excited at some possible slush near the end of March after a mild winter.

Agreed but i did hold out hope for much bigger corrections south of the low and ensuing trough disruption.

I mean its only my opinion based on my own forecasting ability and its true things have corrected a long way this morming so never say never but my own thoughts that for those in the south its too much now 

I hope im wrong as its good to see everyone happy!

[Bradley in Kent]

13 minutes ago, jethro said:

Nope. It's astrological, dates from pre-history times, shortest day always marked the first day of winter - Stonehenge will give you a clue as to how long this date has stood as a benchmark. The modern Dec, Jan, Feb is simply an invention to neatly divide the year up, invented and adopted by meteorological societies.

...and to add onto your post, the seasons are divided up into the three whole months because it's easier to manage and compare stats when dealing with whole months rather than 2/3s and 1/3s. Also some years the solstices and equinoxes shift a day before or after, so would be statistical mess when seasons are different lengths on different years. 

However, in reality, the astronomical seasons do fit in better as there's normally a 3 week lag from sun strength to average temperature; the first half of March is way more wintry than the first half of December. This does mean of course there's a long way to go, but December is good for cold as the sun is weak and less prone to destroying snow cover!

I know this is the model thread and not the 'changing daylight hours thread' (which is a good read), but I wanted to add further explanation. Sorry moderators!

[supernova]

2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

It was never game on for us in the south.

This does feel like the last knockings of winter, everyone getting excited at some possible slush near the end of March after a mild winter.

Disappointed at current charts/outlook? Wow, tough crowd.

[geordiekev]

Latest UKeV models are in for 25th

Only jesting ofcourse, the evolution going forward really is best some have seen for a long time & snow is snow no matter the calendar date

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

 

What model bias are you factoring in?

The propensity for all models to shift low pressures south nearer t-0 in situations involving split jet stream energy.

Which is why things look better this morning but i cant see much more in the way of adjustments to bring the south into play

[london-snow]

1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

It was never game on for us in the south.

This does feel like the last knockings of winter, everyone getting excited at some possible slush near the end of March after a mild winter.

Exactly all this talk of huge upgrades etc is highly dependent on your specific location. No consistent output has ever shown snow possibilities south of the m4 nor has the output shown a decent chance post Christmas to bring in a sustained uk wide cold spell.

 

[Floatylight]

6 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Wouldn't be so sure about this

No I don't agree either. 

I think people are like this because a white Christmas is very rare.

And would be something magical.

That's why people are so passionate about it.

[Radiating Dendrite]

5 minutes ago, supernova said:

Disappointed at current charts/outlook? Wow, tough crowd.

I am looking for snow.

All I see is rain and then when the cold does arrive, it is not cold enough for a snowy easterly - mainly dry, before it potentially turns mild again.

Not exactly narnia.

[wolvesman]

Looking across the models as a whole I see the main risk of any significant accumulations being Derbyshire hills/South Yorkshire ( perhaps N Midlands) with at least a degree of altitude and then later on during Boxing Day perhaps (although less likely) across higher regions of Central Southern areas say Salisbury Plain. The rest I either see as too marginal or insufficient precipitation to get overly excited about. Hope I’m wrong though!

[Ali1977]

Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

I am looking for snow.

All I see is rain and then when the cold does arrive, it is not cold enough for a snowy easterly - mainly dry, before it potentially turns mild again.

Not exactly narnia.

It’ll be Narnia for many on Boxing Day looking at the latest charts, it obviously won’t please some !! But compared to most years this is good for coldies 

[mbrothers]

On 21/12/2021 at 09:49, Radiating Dendrite said:

I am looking for snow.

All I see is rain and then when the cold does arrive, it is not cold enough for a snowy easterly - mainly dry, before it potentially turns mild again.

Not exactly narnia.

Perhaps u need to move countries or lower expectations. Compare these Synoptics to previous borefest years then u might appreciate the interest shown by others 

[Lukesluckybunch]

 

looking at the models potentially rather cold boxing day etc.on the met office website my location gets updated reguarly previous it was showing 8c and wet for saturday.its now up to 9c! are we sure this is right no sign of anything wintery...

Edited December 21, 2021 by Lukesluckybunch
spelling mistake

[blizzard81]

It would be dangerous to totally discount the ecm op. It has done this many times before and proved correct. However on the other hand, the equally horrible ecm run from yesterday morning has more or less being proved to be incorrect for this Christmas weekend. Have a look at yesterday morning's 144hr chart and you will see what I mean. The ecm is acting a little like the gfs can do sometimes - unwillingly backtracking in very small steps like a petulant sulky child. That's what I'm hoping anyway

[Ali1977]

I’m not liking that low pressure, is it blowing up? 

[Liam Burge]

4 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I am looking for snow.

All I see is rain and then when the cold does arrive, it is not cold enough for a snowy easterly - mainly dry, before it potentially turns mild again.

Not exactly narnia.

A lot of time for this to change, wouldn't rule anything out currently.