Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[jayb1989]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Atlantic is stalling by day 10 on EC det,IMO.

We would see HP pushing further North thereafter...

Academic as it will look different tomorrow..

Back to day 10 cold hunting.. love it.

[johncam]

7 minutes ago, swfc said:

Well I guess it's how high you set the bar, I'm not seeing a great ec but that's me. Looks a very short  cold snap

Not much of an event at all mate even up here  

[Staffmoorlands]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

You got no snow falls last year then?

Suggest you look back or chat to Matt Wolves et al.

 

Yes, on the 28th. Which is what I have basically said, Cold with wintry threats after Christmas

[Singularity]

For the weekend it now comes down to the finer detail:

- Precisely how much cold air makes it down to our east by noon Sat

- Just how quickly and far west or east the little low arrives on our doorstep. Faster and further east lead to cold air tucking in more and further south. 
 

Past the weekend, signs emerging that the models are starting to resolve what it means when AAM hits a floor that’s still in the positive range and is able to commence another positive cycle quickly.

Ridges from our south tending to end up centred at least level with the UK, likely further north before long.

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, Johnp said:

Long fetch south westerlies.  Have I lost the plot today, or is it everyone else on the Sherry?

You need to read between the lines John. If you couldn't see the potential that's not my problem

[EML Network]

Lmfao always the same on here, everyone gets all hopeful and then as the 'event' draws near hopes gets dashed.

Some parts of the UK are I think going to get snowfall between Xmas and New years and it looks to me like a East V West battle might ensue as warmer Atlantic moist laiden air bumps into the cold dry, it that turns out to be the case somewhere might get a significant dumping.

 

If history is anything to go by it might be a case of West is best.

[Cold Winter Night]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Atlantic is stalling by day 10 on EC det,IMO.

We would see HP pushing further North thereafter...

Academic as it will look different tomorrow..

Indeed. That is the main takeaway from the ECM FI in my opinion.
It tries to get ridging North going at 144h, like UKMO. Both don't succeed at first.
GFS tries builds an East Atlantic/UK ridge later on and has success.

[Eagle Eye]

Personally the ECM looks shall we say, interesting...

 

Edited December 21, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[Optimus Prime]

Looks briefly quite chilly with some wintry hazards on the hills and a little frost before the atlantic barrels through giving us a wet and windy start to the new year.

Certainly no country locking, road clogging, village paralysing weather we were led to believe a few days ago. So if the weather won't lock us down I guess Doris and his circus friends will have to.

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Personally the ECM looks shall we say, interesting...

 

Looks like my grandson has drawn that That said its probably more accurate than the models

[supernova]

Some of you must be really tired.

Has anybody posted the JMA yet? Cold. 

Like almost every other model. At some point. Somewhere. But not everywhere.

Because it isn't 2010, 1962 or 1947. Yet. And may never be. Because we don't live in the Arctic.

They have dozens of words for snow there. I wonder if they argue as much about what sort?

 

Edited December 21, 2021 by supernova

[GSP]

Fascination model watching at the moment run to run and a number of outcomes at this stage still have legs yet. It really does look like fine lines as to what a number of areas may receive over the weekend. True rollercoaster for some.

[Duane S.]

Ah, that’s better... Had enough of a couple of constantly negative perennial moaners on here today.

For the uninitiated, may I heartedly recommend the Ignored Users List . 

[Ali1977]

I have a feeling the EPS won’t be good, mainly off the back of Mogreps being less bullish. I really hope I’m wrong though 

[Battleground Snow]

So this is how much this how much the ECM has adjusted in 24 hours and we have people stating Saturday is forgone conclusion regarding cold rain etc... The trend is pretty clear in the last couple of days ( doesn't mean it can't go back the other way.

My advice for newbies/learners is to follow a poster who back up their posts with explanations of charts and what may potentially happen moving forward using their knowledge and experience.

I think the EPS will be a nudge south with the cold for what it's worth.

On to the 18z runs

[sheikhy]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

I have a feeling the EPS won’t be good, mainly off the back of Mogreps being less bullish. I really hope I’m wrong though 

Im waiting for mulzys depressing news on this!!!!!

[snowspotter]

4 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Looks briefly quite chilly with some wintry hazards on the hills and a little frost before the atlantic barrels through giving us a wet and windy start to the new year.

Certainly no country locking, road clogging, village paralysing weather we were led to believe a few days ago. So if the weather won't lock us down I guess Doris and his circus friends will have to.

Are you prepared to put money on this forecast ! I’m not too confident on the altlantic barrelling in for a mild new year GFS seems to suggest a snowstorm and easterlies Unless I am going completely mad 

[Midlander]

MOGREPS 12z Headline for Xmas Day: Trended slightly colder
 

Yesterday average for the 2 reading's in the Midlands (Time= 25th 15Z) were:
0Z Average temp 5.5*C

06Z Average temp 6.02*C

12Z Average temp 3.81*C

Today's 06Z average temp 5.5*C

Todays 12Z average temp 4.97*C

Edited December 21, 2021 by Midlander

[mulzy]

Eps mean very similar to this morning (maybe not quite as cold) during days 4-7.  Days 8-9 much more amplified - not quite the perfect configuration for the UK yet but trending the right way.  We may have to concede Xmas/Boxing days and start chasing days 7-10.  Don’t shoot me but lots of potential.

[georgiedre]

52 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Close but no cigar on ECM.. cold and dry north and average and wet in the south. Only hills of wales see anything white for Christmas … 

We are on the banks of Menai straits and it shows snow here on that image

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Eps mean very similar to this morning (maybe not quite as cold) during days 4-7.  Days 8-9 much more amplified - not quite the perfect configuration for the UK yet but trending the right way.  We may have to concede Xmas/Boxing days and start chasing days 7-10.  Don’t shoot me but lots of potential.

Northern England snow chances gone then?

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Midlander said:

MOGREPS 12z Headline for Xmas Day: Trended slightly colder
 

Yesterday average for the 2 reading's in the Midlands (Time= 25th 15Z) were:
0Z Average temp 5.5*C

06Z Average temp 6.02*C

12Z Average temp 3.81*C

Today's 06Z average temp 5.5*C

Todays 12Z average temp 4.97*C

Great, lots of battleground potential Xmas day night - and better long term hopefully 

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Eps mean very similar to this morning (maybe not quite as cold) during days 4-7.  Days 8-9 much more amplified - not quite the perfect configuration for the UK yet but trending the right way.  We may have to concede Xmas/Boxing days and start chasing days 7-10.  Don’t shoot me but lots of potential.

Again this is assuming the EPS don't adjust again like they have alot already

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Midlander said:

MOGREPS 12z Headline for Xmas Day: Trended slightly colder
 

Yesterday average for the 2 reading's in the Midlands (Time= 25th 15Z) were:
0Z Average temp 5.5*C

06Z Average temp 6.02*C

12Z Average temp 3.81*C

Today's 06Z average temp 5.5*C

Todays 12Z average temp 4.97*C

you can clearly see where the battleground potential it, between the Midlands and M4 on most 

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, georgiedre said:

We are on the banks of Menai straits and it shows snow here on that image

Ok fair enough. I conceded the chance of sleet on the Menai Strait and snowdonia ️