Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[Tim Bland]

Just to inject some positivity… if it can flip that quickly to mild it can flip back to cold just as quick….. in the meantime we will all save on our hearing bills…that’s about all I have for now

[mulzy]

*If* this shift in the NWP materialises then we have to look for Scandi heights in the day 10-15 range.  It's a long way off and very little is showing in the modelling at the moment (maybe ECM day 10 giving a hint).   

[bluearmy]

There are two similar sized eps clusters out to day 8

the op and control in same one

whilst not going to rescue the period completely (from a wintry perspective), had the op been in the other cluster then I suspect the mood would not be quite as grim in here.  Chuck in the deep runner at day 5 (which could end up 200 miles further away than modelled) and maybe reactions should be a tad reigned in …… 

 

[Staffmoorlands]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

*If* this shift in the NWP materialises then we have to look for Scandi heights in the day 10-15 range.  It's a long way off and very little is showing in the modelling at the moment (maybe ECM day 10 giving a hint).   

High pressure over Scandinavia is very difficult to maintain in the heated world we live in . We used to get them regularly but now they either never appear or disappear in a few days 

[The Eagle]

1 minute ago, Blessed Weather said:

The ICON output on the 12z run on Sunday was pretty much in line what all the other models were showing for Xmas Day, so I'm not sure about your claims about the model "rock solid throughout" are fully justified?

100% justified. If you see what you want to see and ignore runs or models that don't offer confirmation you're going to get in to trouble. The charts you posted illustrate perfectly regarding ICON why it's so good but others too. Just not the "main" ones referenced here so often.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

*If* this shift in the NWP materialises then we have to look for Scandi heights in the day 10-15 range.  It's a long way off and very little is showing in the modelling at the moment (maybe ECM day 10 giving a hint).   

A few have been thinking this way, given the tpv is modelled on the other side of the NH ( and there is an upstream trough) and amplification is still evident 

[Seasonal Trim]

I give the models about 80% right now for Christmas day.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Sorry for those who are now going to miss out, but it always looked a slush fest at best.

 

Edited December 22, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Inflammatory remark removed.

[markw2680]

Not saying they will flip back at all but the way they suddenly all flipped light switching a light there’s still a chance they could flip back again either later on or in the morning, small chance but still a chance. I’d say the models are still not sure what’s going to happen

[The Eagle]

3 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Not saying they will flip back at all but the way they suddenly all flipped light switching a light there’s still a chance they could flip back again either later on or in the morning, small chance but still a chance. I’d say the models are still not sure what’s going to happen

You're talking 48 to 72 hours out. Could it happen? I guess.

Will it? Keeping it real no, it won't at this stage. It would take something really remarkable.

Edited December 22, 2021 by The Eagle

[beefy201]

What's your Bros thoughts on this current set up Mark ? don't see his well informed comments much these days 

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

A few have been thinking this way, given the tpv is modelled on the other side of the NH ( and there is an upstream trough) and amplification is still evident 

And the met suggesting a se breeze dragging cold in from Europe and people trying to work out how that could happen. I’m guilty as charged and don’t want this to be dropped by them.

Edited December 22, 2021 by That ECM

[Nick F]

46 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

Hi Nick, 

There seems to be a lot of wave breaking over the pacific , well according to what i`ve seen on twitter anyway. Do you think the models have been underestimating the strength and frequency of these?  and do you think they are muting the MJO signal or is it a result of the MJO ?. TIA.  

Hi. 

Yes, there's a persistent / stationary deep trough over east Asia extending down to Japan, there now and still be there at day 10, which continually pumps the Aleutian Ridge with the wave breaking you indicate, which feeds into a deep western N America trough (-PNA). Seems a standing wave over east Asia, perhaps caused by MJO stuck in P7, is leading to this very static pattern over the Pacific, N America and into the Atlantic. This means no further amplification moving through into the N Atlantic sector to help us out of the impending Atlantic low takeover.

Edited December 22, 2021 by Nick F

[David Haines]

Hello Everyone

I'm usually in here every other day or so reading your comments on the model output and having a look myself, although i rarely speak as i'm a newby at fear if embaressing myself haha.

 

Anyway i have been watching the models this week before the flip, and i might be looking at them incorrectly but it did seem that the colder 850's air was decending into the north sea beyond where the isobars where heading between the south to easterly direction where turning and i would of then expected this to then start moving this northwest, i know the isobars are showing the surface pressure not the direction of travel further up but my question is what models should i be looking at to try to understand whats happening above, other than the jet stream well above, sometimes i look at things and think surely thats not possable but obviously i'm not seeing the full picture.

 

Re the model flip i'll go back to watching you all explain because i don't have a clue well i do a little bit but i won't post what i think incase i'm wrong haha

 

Thanks to all the regulars particularily those that post throughout the year not just the cold hunt learnt alot off you guys, would name you but i'll miss a few by accident then feel bad. Shout out to Jon snow and his enthusiasm though i do remember him looking for cold in FI around the end of summer or something

[Lukesluckybunch]

so then folks what are the chances of a southward correction on the 6z.....20% max!!?

Edited December 22, 2021 by Lukesluckybunch
spelling

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

19 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Tomorrow has been my model target day to tell us what we got for a while, I agree.  A further cold nudge from ECM this evening would be good to get to the scenario tomorrow.  As there still is the chance of a nudge back from others at this stage

 

 

 

BFTP 

And the budge back has occurred.  Up to t48 looks similar

 

BFTP

Edited December 22, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Purga]

Oh dear - looks like the models have done a Darren Bett on us this morning as well as the GEFS .

[NewEra21]

10 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Of course we will put ourselves through it again, it’s what we do. 

And when it finally all pays off, watching those first flakes fall from the sky is oh so sweet and rewarding during any cold spell. 

And no matter how disappointing this morning might be or how long we have to wait, that time will come again!

[Daniel*]

The EPS mean was never that cold for London and it actually flipped like 5 days ago to less cold, showed colder during late November, there’s certainly no reason to be gutted further south as period never promised that much. Will need 12z to confirm but I’ll be surprised if we can salvage anything from this.

Edited December 22, 2021 by Daniel*

[Ali1977]

I went to bed with this forecast for Boxing Day and woke up with this

 

 

Edited December 22, 2021 by Ali1977

[Nick2373]

6 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

You're talking 48 to 72 hours out. Could it happen? I guess.

Will it? Keeping it real no, it won't at this stage. It would take something really remarkable.

I’m screen shooting this comment because it’s priceless!! After a sudden flip overnight I’d wouldn’t bet my house on it.

[carinthian]

The Rolling Stones had a hit record back in the 1960s , called "Not Fade away ", probably most appropriate tune for that decade as for the most part the cold during those winters did not fade away ! Total shock at the speed of change in the models with the almost complete switch to milder win out. The experts cannot give any real explanations as to why The British Isles as shown on this morning runs fail to tap into some Arctic Continental air mass, yet again, especially when the set up looked ripe. They as some other have pointed out , maybe something to do with global warming ! So here we are at 72 hours with most models in agreement with cold restricted to the NE ( approx from Humber Flue), so it would appear no further advance of cold southwards with potential winter wonderland charts. Lets be optomistic and give the recent woeful model runs another 24 hours to redeem themselves back for another full cycle flip ? That would be my Christmas wish for you snow starved folk. No good really giving you any feedback on the shorter range snow model results as they will not have the data entered from this mornings flip models.

Onwards and upwards, but the feeling from the team is not a done deal just yet as some solutions remain in favour of sending energy south.

C

[MattStoke]

2 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Not jumping down your throat , but none of the weather for the days in question has actually happened yet.

Meanwhile the Met Office text forecast actually mentions snow at my family's  Midlands location for the first time. 

Met4Cast’s own Facebook page put out a graphic only yesterday afternoon saying snow was most likely for the Midlands but suddenly he claims he called his as over days ago 

Edited December 22, 2021 by MattStoke

[Spah1]

What a protracted, exhausting and terribly disappointing chase. 

[snow mad]

Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

WWW.SOLEN.INFO

A big uptick in solar activity at the wrong time is my thought on why it’s all gone wrong. I know some will laugh but I have a hunch it makes a difference when a sudden change happens to the output of the sun