January 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[damianslaw]

43 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

At 4.6c January 2022 shares the same mean CET with January's:

1738

1775

1801

1878

1926

1927

 

Has the climate changed that much? Mmmm..

[Roger J Smith]

There were records set on the first that were not only date records for 1 Jan but monthly records for all of January. The daily mean of 12.6, the max of 14.3 and the min of 10.9 are all new highs for the month. The max is 0.3 higher than the previous record, the min 0.4, and the mean a full degree higher than three days formerly tied at 11.6 (from 1834-23rd, 1932-3rd and 2016-25th). None of those had an associated monthly record max and one (3rd, 1932) had the previous monthly high minimum of 10.5. The previous record high max was 14.0 set on 9th of 2015. It should be noted that the 1834 data do not include max or min. 

There was also an all-time record high weekly average that included any January days. That was set on the 3rd for the interval 28 Dec to 3 Jan with an average of 10.46 C. The previous record had been 10.37 from 2004 (31 Jan to 6 Feb). The record high for any week with all days in January is 9.36 C for 21-27 Jan 1834. 

[damianslaw]

Might have been close to 4 degrees finish had the first 3 days been at least average..

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

A preety average January then despite much snow. Mid month was quite cold overall and I was fully expecting a marked downward adjustment.

I think after the exceptionally mild spell ended on the 3rd, the rest of the month had a CET average of 4.0C

A daily CET mean of 12.6C looks really odd in a month with a CET of just 4.6C.     January 1795 with a CET of -3.1C did have one day with a CET daily mean of 6.0C!

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Fortunately UK record mild had no effect on Jan globally, dropped to a staggering 0.03c above the 79/2000 baseline.  

 

BFTP

[Roger J Smith]

Here's a look at the top 25 scoring for Jan 2022, subject to official contest confirmation by J10. Any late penalties will have the effect of dropping that forecaster by one rank and this is incorporated into the "best combined forecast" data shown with this list. EWP scores already have the late penalty incorporated. 

Order of entry (number in brackets beside forecaster names) separates those with equal errors in this list. 

This list shows the EWP forecasts made, and top ten best combined forecast ranks.

 

Rank ___ Forecaster ______________ Fcsts 

_01 ____ Kasim Awan ( 26 ) ________4.6 __ 84.0 __ tied best combined (1st CET, 9th EWP, 10 total)

_02 ____ DR(S)NO ( 30 ) ___________ 4.5 _ 115.0 __

_03 ____ daniel* ( 46 ) _____________4.5 __ 80.0 __ tied best combined (3rd CET, 7th EWP, 10 total)

_03 ____ Neil N ( 48 ) ______________ 4.7 __ 88.0 __ 5th best combined (4th CET, 13th EWP, 17 total)

_04 ____  virtualsphere ( 18 ) ______ 4.4 __ 87.0 _  4th best combined (5th CET, 11th EWP, 16 total)

_05 ____ Freeze ( 21 ) ______________ 4.4 __ 70.0 _ 3rd best combined (6th CET, 5th EWP, 11 total)

_06 ____ Dunstable Snow ( 27 ) ____ 4.8 __ 92.0 _ 8th best combined (6th CET, 16th EWP, 22 total) 

_07 ____ Let It Snow! ( 38 ) _________ 4.8 __110.0 _

_08 ____ damianslaw ( 36 ) _________ 4.9 _ --- --- __

_09 ____ seaside60 ( L1-3 ) _________ 4.9 __ 96.0 __ (ranked 10th for comparison)

_10 ____ stewfox ( 44 ) ______________5.0 __ 88.0 __ (ranked 9th for comparison _ 7th best combined 9+12=21)

_11 ____ summer blizzard ( 53 ) ____ 5.0 __ 90.0 __ 9th best combined (11th CET, 14th EWP, 25 total)

_12 ____ Bobd29 ( 1 ) _______________ 4.1 __ 91.0 __ 10th best combined (12th CET, 15th EWP, 27 total)

_13 ____  Stationary Front ( 34 ) ____ 5.1 _ 109.0 _

_14 ____ snowray ( 42 ) _____________ 5.1 __ 92.5 _

_15 ____ J10 ( 54 ) ___________________ 5.1 _ 100.0 _

_16 ____ DiagonalRedLine ( 2 ) ______ 4.0 __ 70.0 _ 6th best combined (16th CET, 4th EWP, 20 total)

_17 ____ summer8906 ( 3 ) __________ 5.2 _ 130.0 _ 

_18 ____ February1978 ( L1-1 ) ______ 5.2 _ 102.0 _ 

_19 ____ Mulzy ( L1-2 ) _______________ 5.2 __ 98.0 _

_20 ____ Jeff C ( 8 ) ___________________ 3.9 __ 95.0 _

_21 ____ Blast From the Past ( 20 )___ 5.3 _ 118.0 _

_22 ____ Stargazer ( 28 ) _____________ 5.3 __ 95.0 _

_23 ____ prolongedSnowLover ( 48 ) _ 5.3 _ 115.0 _

_24 ____ Reef ( 33 ) ___________________ 5.4 _ 105.0 _

_25 ____ noname_weather ( 47 ) _____ 5.4 __ 81.0 __ (8th EWP)

=================================

(rest of the forecasts in CET scoring order)

5.5 __ 98.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 19 ) ____

5.5 _ --- --- _ Walsall Wood Snow ( 35 ) __

5.5 _ --- --- _ Froze were the Days ( L1-5 )

5.6 _ 109.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 39 ) ____ 

3.6 __ 72.0 _ Godber 1 ( 55 ) ____________

5.7 __ 66.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 37 ) ________

5.8 _ 132.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 15 ) ___

5.8 _ 108.0 _ sundog ( 40 ) _____________

5.9 _ --- --- _ Kentish Man ( 31 ) ________

3.3 _ 107.0 _ Jonboy ( 41 ) ______________

5.9 _ --- --- _ Mark Bayley ( 51 ) ________

3.3 __ 67.2 _ Roger J Smith ( 52 ) _______

6.0 __ 65.0 _ The PIT ( 12 ) ______________

6.0 __ 99.0 _ Norrance ( 23 ) ____________

6.0 _ --- --- _ Richie3846 ( 25 ) ___________

6.0 __ 84.0 _ stevew ( 32 ) ______________

3.2 _ --- --- Duncan McAlister ( L1-4 ) ___

6.1 _ 135.0 _ Frigid ( 5 ) _________________

6.1 _ 170.0 _ Summer18 ( 16 ) __________

6.1 _ 130.0 _ Don ( 50 ) _________________

6.2 __ 97.0 _ Feb91Blizzard ( 9 ) ________ 

6.2 _ 105.0 _ weather-history ( 43 ) ____

6.3 _ --- --- _ Summer Sun ( 10 ) ________

2.9 __ 97.0 _ SLEETY ( 29 ) ____________

6.4 _ 178.0 _ SteveB ( 7 ) ______________

6.4 _ 100.0 _ Weather 26 ( 11 ) ________

6.4 _ 110.0 _ Leo97t ( 24 ) _____________

6.5 _ 127.0 _ rwtwm ( 17 ) _____________

6.6 _ 100.0 _ Ed Stone ( 22 ) ___________

6.6 _ 130.0 _ davehsug ( 45 ) __________

7.0 _ 142.8 _ Polar Gael ( 6 ) ___________

7.1 _ 145.0 _ syed2878 ( 13 ) __________ 

7.4 _ 140.0 _ I Remember Atlantic 252 ( 4 ) 

9.1 _ 148.0 _ Shillitocettwo ( 14 ) ______

[Roger J Smith]

24 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Fortunately UK record mild had no effect on Jan globally, dropped to a staggering 0.03c above the 79/2000 baseline.  

 

BFTP

North America was generally colder than long-term averages, for example -6.8 C at Toronto was t32 coldest in 182 years of data and NYC was also below their 1991-2020 normal by almost 2 C, with -0.9 C. Chicago had a mean that was 2.6 C deg below 1991-2020 average. Only the desert southwest region had a slightly higher than average outcome. 

[emmett garland]

3 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

At 4.6c January 2022 shares the same mean CET with January's:

1738

1775

1801

1878

1926

1927

 

I bet most of those January,s had some snow

[Walsall Wood Snow]

40 minutes ago, emmett garland said:

I bet most of those January,s had some snow

I couldn't tell you but I know this one did. Admittedly it failed to settle here, but a few places further away (and probably a bit higher) had a brief covering I believe.

[BornFromTheVoid]

In a similar style to Ed Hawkins climate stripes, here's the whole monthly CET record in terms of anomalies vs the 19th century average.
The most notable thing to me (other than the obvious warming trend overall) is the tendency for winters to produce much stronger monthly anomalies, both warm and cold, than the rest of the year. This is seen with the darker reds and blues in Dec, Jan and Feb.

[Optimus Prime]

2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Fortunately UK record mild had no effect on Jan globally, dropped to a staggering 0.03c above the 79/2000 baseline.  

 

BFTP

You're referring to the 1991-2020 baseline, not the 1979-2000 one. 0.44c above 1981-2010, 0.7c above 1971-2000 and around 0.9c above 1961-1990. The last cooler than average January, globally, was in 2012 (-0.14c 81-2010).

 

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Here's a look at the top 25 scoring for Jan 2022, subject to official contest confirmation by J10. Any late penalties will have the effect of dropping that forecaster by one rank and this is incorporated into the "best combined forecast" data shown with this list. EWP scores already have the late penalty incorporated. 

Order of entry (number in brackets beside forecaster names) separates those with equal errors in this list. 

This list shows the EWP forecasts made, and top ten best combined forecast ranks.

 

Rank ___ Forecaster ______________ Fcsts 

_01 ____ Kasim Awan ( 26 ) ________4.6 __ 84.0 __ tied best combined (1st CET, 9th EWP, 10 total)

_02 ____ DR(S)NO ( 30 ) ___________ 4.5 _ 115.0 __

_03 ____ daniel* ( 46 ) _____________4.5 __ 80.0 __ tied best combined (3rd CET, 7th EWP, 10 total)

_03 ____ Neil N ( 48 ) ______________ 4.7 __ 88.0 __ 5th best combined (4th CET, 13th EWP, 17 total)

_04 ____  virtualsphere ( 18 ) ______ 4.4 __ 87.0 _  4th best combined (5th CET, 11th EWP, 16 total)

_05 ____ Freeze ( 21 ) ______________ 4.4 __ 70.0 _ 3rd best combined (6th CET, 5th EWP, 11 total)

_06 ____ Dunstable Snow ( 27 ) ____ 4.8 __ 92.0 _ 8th best combined (6th CET, 16th EWP, 22 total) 

_07 ____ Let It Snow! ( 38 ) _________ 4.8 __110.0 _

_08 ____ damianslaw ( 36 ) _________ 4.9 _ --- --- __

_09 ____ seaside60 ( L1-3 ) _________ 4.9 __ 96.0 __ (ranked 10th for comparison)

_10 ____ stewfox ( 44 ) ______________5.0 __ 88.0 __ (ranked 9th for comparison _ 7th best combined 9+12=21)

_11 ____ summer blizzard ( 53 ) ____ 5.0 __ 90.0 __ 9th best combined (11th CET, 14th EWP, 25 total)

_12 ____ Bobd29 ( 1 ) _______________ 4.1 __ 91.0 __ 10th best combined (12th CET, 15th EWP, 27 total)

_13 ____  Stationary Front ( 34 ) ____ 5.1 _ 109.0 _

_14 ____ snowray ( 42 ) _____________ 5.1 __ 92.5 _

_15 ____ J10 ( 54 ) ___________________ 5.1 _ 100.0 _

_16 ____ DiagonalRedLine ( 2 ) ______ 4.0 __ 70.0 _ 6th best combined (16th CET, 4th EWP, 20 total)

_17 ____ summer8906 ( 3 ) __________ 5.2 _ 130.0 _ 

_18 ____ February1978 ( L1-1 ) ______ 5.2 _ 102.0 _ 

_19 ____ Mulzy ( L1-2 ) _______________ 5.2 __ 98.0 _

_20 ____ Jeff C ( 8 ) ___________________ 3.9 __ 95.0 _

_21 ____ Blast From the Past ( 20 )___ 5.3 _ 118.0 _

_22 ____ Stargazer ( 28 ) _____________ 5.3 __ 95.0 _

_23 ____ prolongedSnowLover ( 48 ) _ 5.3 _ 115.0 _

_24 ____ Reef ( 33 ) ___________________ 5.4 _ 105.0 _

_25 ____ noname_weather ( 47 ) _____ 5.4 __ 81.0 __ (8th EWP)

=================================

(rest of the forecasts in CET scoring order)

5.5 __ 98.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 19 ) ____

5.5 _ --- --- _ Walsall Wood Snow ( 35 ) __

5.5 _ --- --- _ Froze were the Days ( L1-5 )

5.6 _ 109.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 39 ) ____ 

3.6 __ 72.0 _ Godber 1 ( 55 ) ____________

5.7 __ 66.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 37 ) ________

5.8 _ 132.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 15 ) ___

5.8 _ 108.0 _ sundog ( 40 ) _____________

5.9 _ --- --- _ Kentish Man ( 31 ) ________

3.3 _ 107.0 _ Jonboy ( 41 ) ______________

5.9 _ --- --- _ Mark Bayley ( 51 ) ________

3.3 __ 67.2 _ Roger J Smith ( 52 ) _______

6.0 __ 65.0 _ The PIT ( 12 ) ______________

6.0 __ 99.0 _ Norrance ( 23 ) ____________

6.0 _ --- --- _ Richie3846 ( 25 ) ___________

6.0 __ 84.0 _ stevew ( 32 ) ______________

3.2 _ --- --- Duncan McAlister ( L1-4 ) ___

6.1 _ 135.0 _ Frigid ( 5 ) _________________

6.1 _ 170.0 _ Summer18 ( 16 ) __________

6.1 _ 130.0 _ Don ( 50 ) _________________

6.2 __ 97.0 _ Feb91Blizzard ( 9 ) ________ 

6.2 _ 105.0 _ weather-history ( 43 ) ____

6.3 _ --- --- _ Summer Sun ( 10 ) ________

2.9 __ 97.0 _ SLEETY ( 29 ) ____________

6.4 _ 178.0 _ SteveB ( 7 ) ______________

6.4 _ 100.0 _ Weather 26 ( 11 ) ________

6.4 _ 110.0 _ Leo97t ( 24 ) _____________

6.5 _ 127.0 _ rwtwm ( 17 ) _____________

6.6 _ 100.0 _ Ed Stone ( 22 ) ___________

6.6 _ 130.0 _ davehsug ( 45 ) __________

7.0 _ 142.8 _ Polar Gael ( 6 ) ___________

7.1 _ 145.0 _ syed2878 ( 13 ) __________ 

7.4 _ 140.0 _ I Remember Atlantic 252 ( 4 ) 

9.1 _ 148.0 _ Shillitocettwo ( 14 ) ______

Gosh I went over.. I didn't know what I predicted, given up checking as I have been so off for so long now..

[J10]

Excel -> January 22 CET.xlsx

PDF -> Jan 2022 Summary.pdf

Monthly

Just the one correct entry this month, Kasim Awan.

Three others 0.1c out, DR(S)NO, Daniel*, NeilN.

In total 16 within 0.5c.

Seasonal

The top 5 is all new and is Freeze, DR(S)NO,  Stationary Front, seaside 60 and virtualsphere.

Overall

The same top 5 as per the Seasonal competition, the main difference is Kasim Awan is in 7th.

Edited February 3, 2022 by J10

[Derecho]

1 hour ago, Optimus Prime said:

You're referring to the 1991-2020 baseline, not the 1979-2000 one. 0.44c above 1981-2010, 0.7c above 1971-2000 and around 0.9c above 1961-1990. The last cooler than average January, globally, was in 2012 (-0.14c 81-2010).

 

Yup here is the global temperature anomalies according to the daily GFS output, still +0.28C above the 1981-2010 average so pretty similar to January 2019 despite a strong La Nina.

The CET2 series looks interesting. Perhaps some newly digitised data has come to light, an extension of the daily data or some more information has come to light so bias adjustments can be re-examined... Was due to come out late last year but hopefully it'll arrive soon. A dataset as huge as the CET series takes a long time to analyse.

Edited February 3, 2022 by Quicksilver1989

[BornFromTheVoid]

28 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup here is the global temperature anomalies according to the daily GFS output, still +0.28C above the 1981-2010 average so pretty similar to January 2019 despite a strong La Nina.

The CET2 series looks interesting. Perhaps some newly digitised data has come to light, an extension of the daily data or some more information has come to light so bias adjustments can be re-examined... Was due to come out late last year but hopefully it'll arrive soon. A dataset as huge as the CET series takes a long time to analyse.

I just hope that certain people can se these updates as what they are - improvements in accuracy based on new data, discoveries and uncovered biases, just as happens in every field of science.

With differing stations, instruments, land changes, etc, there are many sources of uncertainty within the CET record, and homoginasation of the series will likely be an ongoing process.

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

I just hope that certain people can se these updates as what they are - improvements in accuracy based on new data, discoveries and uncovered biases, just as happens in every field of science.

With differing stations, instruments, land changes, etc, there are many sources of uncertainty within the CET record, and homoginasation of the series will likely be an ongoing process.

Yup and given the last major paper about it was back in 1992 (Parker I think) there will be a huge amount of further data that has been digitised since then. It'll be interesting to see the changes.

Edited February 3, 2022 by Quicksilver1989

[Derecho]

Interestingly if you compare the annual CET with recently digitised data from Radcliffe observatory in Oxford, the CET has less of a warming trend. Here are the annual means from 1814-2020:

and then the differences between the two, where the blue line is above zero, the Oxford data is warmer and below zero shows when the CET series is warmer. Why is there more of a warming trend at Oxford compared to the CET series? Could well be urbanisation but then that wouldn't explain why the difference was generally flat between ~1850 and 1975.

 

[Weather-history]

EWP for January is 36.3mm

[Roger J Smith]

Thanks for posting that, the EWP scoring posted on 2 Feb has been adjusted to reflect the change (it reduces the average error by 0.15 for all who entered two months, and by 0.30 for those who entered only January). The change was too small to make any changes to the scoring. 

[Summer8906]

On 02/02/2022 at 16:30, Sunny76 said:

I think it yet again, depends on the region people are in. For London, I would class Jan 2022 as a chilly month overall, and the very mild weather, was only for the first 2-3 days. That mild snap was easily forgotten by the 7th of January, when I noticed quite a few sunny and cold days. 

It's been a much more seasonal winter month, but just non-descript.

Here's hoping for more interesting weather as we head into late winter and early spring of 2022. 

I am in southern Hampshire so as far south as you can get, and my perception has been that it hasn't really been cold by day, only by night. The perception was of somewhat-milder-than-average days (except that cold dull spell just after mid month, which was the only period it actually felt cold during midday) but cold nights. Perhaps not dissimilar to February 2008, though obviously with less daylight and weaker sun.

The cold we did get seems to have been insufficient to prevent unusually early appearance of plum blossom, one or two flowers coming into view on a tree just down the road. Not as early as 2020 (when the tree came almost into full flower before the end of Jan!) but still earlier than might be normal (mid-month onwards). It does seem that any spell of very mild weather in late Dec or Jan can bring flowering forward before the normal date, and it then takes either prolonged or extreme daytime cold to reset nature back to more normal for the time of year. The frosts of the past month were sufficient to prevent things being as early as 2016 (daffodils before the end of Jan) or 2020, but not quite enough to make things 'normal' for the time of year. I'd say we're comparable with 2014 for the state of nature.

By contrast, last year (when I returned from overseas in late March) things seemed more 'normal' for the season, due to some significant cold spells during the winter. And things then remained 'normal' despite the cold April, with bluebells at their peak in early May as one might naturally expect. (To experience a notably 'late' spring flowering season you really do need prolonged cold during the winter or early spring: 2010 and 2013 are the only two recent examples of years when flowering has seemed late, notably so in 2013).

Edited February 6, 2022 by Summer8906

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

I am in southern Hampshire so as far south as you can get, and my perception has been that it hasn't really been cold by day, only by night. The perception was of somewhat-milder-than-average days (except that cold dull spell just after mid month, which was the only period it actually felt cold during midday) but cold nights. Perhaps not dissimilar to February 2008, though obviously with less daylight and weaker sun.

The cold we did get seems to have been insufficient to prevent unusually early appearance of plum blossom, one or two flowers coming into view on a tree just down the road. Not as early as 2020 (when the tree came almost into full flower before the end of Jan!) but still earlier than might be normal (mid-month onwards). It does seem that any spell of very mild weather in late Dec or Jan can bring flowering forward before the normal date, and it then takes either prolonged or extreme daytime cold to reset nature back to more normal for the time of year. The frosts of the past month were sufficient to prevent things being as early as 2016 (daffodils before the end of Jan) or 2020, but not quite enough to make things 'normal' for the time of year. I'd say we're comparable with 2014 for the state of nature.

By contrast, last year (when I returned from overseas in late March) things seemed more 'normal' for the season, due to some significant cold spells during the winter. And things then remained 'normal' despite the cold April, with bluebells at their peak in early May as one might naturally expect. (To experience a notably 'late' spring flowering season you really do need prolonged cold during the winter or early spring: 2010 and 2013 are the only two recent examples of years when flowering has seemed late, notably so in 2013).

Last year brought a notably late spring. Some blossoms never came out. My magnolia was scorched due to the frost in April. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Last year brought a notably late spring. Some blossoms never came out. My magnolia was scorched due to the frost in April. 

Well last spring was rather topsy turvy rather than late, in that the spring started off fairly mild with March 2021s CET of 7.2, before April became colder than March and brought the coldest April for 35 years, and also the first significantly cold April CET for 32 years, and then after that May was a cool month as well and at 10.1, was the coolest for the CET for 25 years.

[Summer8906]

10 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Well last spring was rather topsy turvy rather than late, in that the spring started off fairly mild with March 2021s CET of 7.2, before April became colder than March and brought the coldest April for 35 years, and also the first significantly cold April CET for 32 years, and then after that May was a cool month as well and at 10.1, was the coolest for the CET for 25 years.

I'm surprised some intervening Aprils, such as 2012 especially, didn't come close to 1989. Certainly 2012 seemed to be completely devoid of warm weather after the first two days, and had a number of clear nights throughout the month which would have dragged min temps down, in addition to the cold days. By contrast I don't remember 1989 being that spectacularly cold (cold sure, but not colder than 2012) after the first week, but could well be wrong.

Edited February 6, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

19 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Well last spring was rather topsy turvy rather than late, in that the spring started off fairly mild with March 2021s CET of 7.2, before April became colder than March and brought the coldest April for 35 years, and also the first significantly cold April CET for 32 years, and then after that May was a cool month as well and at 10.1, was the coolest for the CET for 25 years.

Down here spring didn't seem especially late last year, more like what I'd consider normal (cherry and apple blossom peaking in April, bluebells in early May, hawthorn and rhododendrons mid-to-late May) - but obviously the further north you were, the later it was.

Went on a longer walk this afternoon round the neighbourhood, and saw one or two daffodils out as well as a plum tree in blossom. Given it's only February 6th that seems incredibly early - beaten in recent years only by 2016 and 2020, though I'd expect some years further back such as 1989, 1990 and 2007 would also have been earlier. (I wasn't taking so much notice back then). It does seem as if the cold nights and near-average (perhaps slightly above) days of January haven't reversed the effect of the extreme mild in late Dec/early Jan so much.

Edited February 6, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

Sorry please delete, accidentally reposted.

Edited February 6, 2022 by Summer8906