January 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[North-Easterly Blast]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Januarys 1949, 1989, 2000, 2005 are examples of drier and milder than average Januarys

 

So is 1976, and 2012 was also fairly dry and mild.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Januarys 1949, 1989, 2000, 2005 are examples of drier and milder than average Januarys

 

Oh ok. 2005 I'm very surprised is in the list Cumbria was hit hard by significant floods. Perhaps it was more a far NW affair. Ditto 1989 which brought alot of rain to far BW areas. Yes 2000 I remember as sunny and often dry but this is from a  NE England perspective where I was living at the time.

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Last January was awful- so much cold, wet weather. Puzzling how anyone could enjoy it.

If we're going to have snow, at least make it proper snow as opposed to a sleety mess which is how I remember last Jan.

January 2012 stands out as one for me.

Yes for central.and southern and eastern parts it was a very wet month but it did bring some cold snowy weather at times. Cumbria managed to escape the often wetter conditions, and we had a number of fine cold frosty days with snow sticking. From a Cumbria perspective if you like cold and snow easily best overall since 2010 although 2013 brought more snow, the first half of the month was very mild and dull. 

[Weather-history]

39 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes for central.and southern and eastern parts it was a very wet month but it did bring some cold snowy weather at times. Cumbria managed to escape the often wetter conditions, and we had a number of fine cold frosty days with snow sticking. From a Cumbria perspective if you like cold and snow easily best overall since 2010 although 2013 brought more snow, the first half of the month was very mild and dull. 

13 days with lying snow under Met Office rules here including 10 days on the trot for that January

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 31st January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 10.9 in 1868; the highest value since is 10.3 from 2000. Other mild readings include 10.1 in 1923, 10.0 in 1862, 9.8 in 1914, 9.7 in 1846,  9.4 in 1869, 1898 and 2020, 9.2 in 1775 and 1968, 9.1 in 1804 and 1975, 9.0 in 1982, 8.9 in 1854 and 1893, 8.8 in 1889, 8.7 in 1957, and 8.6 in 1892. Despite setting high maximum, 2016 only averaged 7.3. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -7.2 in 1776. This was the fifth of five consecutive record lows, which had been six consecutive until 1st Feb 1956 replaced one record. Other low daily means were -4.7 in 1830, -4.5 in 1972, -3.4 in 1799, -3.3 in 1954, -3.0 in 1816, -2.9 in 1855, -2.7 in 1895 and -2.5 in 1947;  the lowest since 1972 was -1.9 in 1987 with -1.8 in 2019. 

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 12.6 in 2016 which replaced 12.2 from 1995, which in turn had replaced 11.9 from 1923, tied in 1983. Other mild days include 11.8 in 1898 and 1957, 11.7 in 1914, 2000 and 2004, 11.5 in 1964 and 2020, 11.4 in 2002, 11.2 in 1938, and 11.1 in 1889 and 1943. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 8.9 in 2000 which replaced 8.6 from 1976, which had replaced 8.3 from 1923. Other mild minimum readings were 8.2 in 1968, 7.9 in 1914, 7.5 in 1925, 7.4 in 1892 and 2020, 7.3 in 1982, 7.2 in 1929, and 7.0 in 1898.

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -1.9 in 1954. (1776 was likely closer to -3 or -4).  Other cold values were 0.0 (1956), 0.1 (1879), 0.2 (1947), 0.3 (1919 and 1972), 0.4 (1895), 0.7 (1940), and 0.9 (1976). 

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -9.2 in 1972. (1776 may have been closer to -11 or -12). Other cold minima include -7.1 in 1987, -5.8 in 1895, -5.4 in 2019, -5.2 in 1947, -4.6 in 1954, -4.1 in 1912, and -4.0 in 2011. 

The wettest 31st of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 15.54 mm (1957), followed by 14.82 mm (1943), 14.78 mm (2014), 14.64 mm (1988), 13.75 mm (1983), 12.24 mm (2004), 11.87 mm (1995), 11.29 mm (2017), 10.68 mm (1931) and 10.18 mm (1946).

The wettest week ending 31st January (25th - 31st Jan) was 64.06 mm in 1995, followed by 52.72 mm (1940), 51.52 mm (1943) and 51.10 mm (1990).

The least amount falling in a week ending 31st January was 0.34 mm (1932) followed by 0.42 mm (1987), 0.71 mm (1997), 0.87 mm (1998), 1.03 mm (1959), 1.05 mm (1949), 1.07 mm (2007), 1.68 mm (1981) and 1.79 mm (2006).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1972 which was quite cold for a few days). 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1972&maand=1&dag=31&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

 

[Summer Sun]

5.1c to the 30th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 4.8c on the 25th & 26th

[damianslaw]

With adjustments I'll go with a final figure of 4.7 degrees. Not far off the 81-10 average. 

[LetItSnow!]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

With adjustments I'll go with a final figure of 4.7 degrees. Not far off the 81-10 average. 

Temperature-wise, January 2022 will be a very normal month for the modern-era. Chance a tad below if it comes under 4.7.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.3C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall up to 25.3mm 34% of the monthly average.

[Kentish Man]

5 hours ago, damianslaw said:

With adjustments I'll go with a final figure of 4.7 degrees. Not far off the 81-10 average. 

Yes, while it's been a terminally boring month in the far south east, temperature wise with high pressure it's not been as mild as it might have been at least. Yet to see a snowflake this winter here.

[North-Easterly Blast]

2 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

Temperature-wise, January 2022 will be a very normal month for the modern-era. Chance a tad below if it comes under 4.7.

You are correct there.  If after adjustments the final figure was 4.7 or thereabouts, it would be a very much a normal January or even winter month, by the most recent average (1991-2020), but prior to 1988 it would have been relatively mild (the 1951-80 average is only 3.6), so still 1*C or so above that, which very much puts into perspective how much January has changed in the last 30 odd years.  That said the weather pattern the UK has experienced this month has been very abnormal - and the lack of proper cold synoptics was almost as remarkable as in the very mild Januarys of 2007, 2008 and 2020, and temperatures have been mostly stuck at around average all month after the first three days, with nothing particularly cold all month. 

In the long high pressure spell this month, the weather never really quite lived up to what it may have done 30 odd years ago, with hardly anything in the way of inversion surface cold and hardly any fog, whereas many years ago the long high pressure spell this month would likely have delivered many days of widespread fog, and a white atmosphere in terms of the air being white from fog, which would have felt wintry; so in terms of its synoptic pattern, it still felt much less wintry than it could have done.

In actual fact in the past, there have been Januarys or other winter months that have seen a higher overall CET than this month, and still had more in the way of proper cold synoptics than this month; you could have say, two thirds or so of a winter month that is mild zonal, and still have a few days in the month of proper cold synoptics, giving more interest weatherwise and in model watching than this month.  This all puts into perspective that from a weather enthusiasts point of view, and for a model watching enthusiast, this month has been as poor as the likes of winters 2013-14 and 2019-20, even though the weather experienced on the ground in this month was completely different to those horror shows.   

As previously mentioned, there will have been winter months in the past with a higher overall CET than this month, but still brought more proper cold synoptics than this month has done, which clearly makes this month a case where its overall CET does not tell you a great deal about the weather pattern that the country experienced.  This month's CET also does not tell you how it is still definitely a month to forget from a weather enthusiasts and model watching enthusiast's perspective, even though temperatures were not insanely above average like in Januarys 2007, 2008 or 2020.

Edited January 31, 2022 by North-Easterly Blast

[LetItSnow!]

3 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

You are correct there.  If after adjustments the final figure was 4.7 or thereabouts, it would be a very much a normal January or even winter month, by the most recent average (1991-2020), but prior to 1988 it would have been relatively mild (the 1951-80 average is only 3.6), so still 1*C or so above that, which very much puts into perspective how much January has changed in the last 30 odd years.  That said the weather pattern the UK has experienced this month has been very abnormal - and the lack of proper cold synoptics was almost as remarkable as in the very mild Januarys of 2007, 2008 and 2020, and temperatures have been mostly stuck at around average all month after the first three days, with nothing particularly cold all month. 

In the long high pressure spell this month, the weather never really quite lived up to what it may have done 30 odd years ago, with hardly anything in the way of inversion surface cold and hardly any fog, whereas many years ago the long high pressure spell this month would likely have delivered many days of widespread fog, and a white atmosphere in terms of the air being white from fog, which would have felt wintry; so in terms of its synoptic pattern, it still felt much less wintry than it could have done.

In actual fact in the past, there have been Januarys or other winter months that have seen a higher overall CET than this month, and still had more in the way of proper cold synoptics than this month; you could have say, two thirds or so of a winter month that is mild zonal, and still have a few days in the month of proper cold synoptics, giving more interest weatherwise and in model watching than this month.  This all puts into perspective that from a weather enthusiasts point of view, and for a model watching enthusiast, this month has been as poor as the likes of winters 2013-14 and 2019-20, even though the weather experienced on the ground in this month was completely different to those horror shows.   

As previously mentioned, there will have been winter months in the past with a higher overall CET than this month, but still brought more proper cold synoptics than this month has done, which clearly makes this month a case where its overall CET does not tell you a great deal about the weather pattern that the country experienced.  This month's CET also does not tell you how it is still definitely a month to forget from a weather enthusiasts and model watching enthusiast's perspective, even though temperatures were not insanely above average like in Januarys 2007, 2008 or 2020.

I would argue that if the same synoptics had occured in the 19th century or even first-half of the 20th century then this would have returned quite a cold month. Almost any winter anticyclone was a guaranteed bringer of frost and dense fog - that just doesn't happen anymore. I think it could explain some (though not all) of the decadal rise in the winter average temperature. Even the mildest winters then would have seen at least some frost and fog. See my old post on February 1891 as an example of that.

[Scorcher]

Not sure about elsewhere but in these parts it's the relatively cold nights that have kept this month close to average.

A lot of days have been above average consistently, with temps in the 8-10C range quite common after frosty starts.

Apart from the last few days that have bucked the trend, most of the month has been noticeably windless around these parts.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, LetItSnow! said:

I would argue that if the same synoptics had occured in the 19th century or even first-half of the 20th century then this would have returned quite a cold month. Almost any winter anticyclone was a guaranteed bringer of frost and dense fog - that just doesn't happen anymore. I think it could explain some (though not all) of the decadal rise in the winter average temperature. Even the mildest winters then would have seen at least some frost and fog. See my old post on February 1891 as an example of that.

A number of days did produce low cloud at or near ground level, misty foggy conditions at times. We have much cleaner air than during much of the 20Th century so no surprise we don't have the foggy days we used to. Air that came in off the continent was dense with pollutants from the industrial areas of Germany etc... 

[North-Easterly Blast]

2 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

I would argue that if the same synoptics had occured in the 19th century or even first-half of the 20th century then this would have returned quite a cold month. Almost any winter anticyclone was a guaranteed bringer of frost and dense fog - that just doesn't happen anymore. I think it could explain some (though not all) of the decadal rise in the winter average temperature. Even the mildest winters then would have seen at least some frost and fog. See my old post on February 1891 as an example of that.

I do not think that February 1891 was particularly cold for the CET (3.9), so even that was still close to average.  

[North-Easterly Blast]

21 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A number of days did produce low cloud at or near ground level, misty foggy conditions at times. We have much cleaner air than during much of the 20Th century so no surprise we don't have the foggy days we used to. Air that came in off the continent was dense with pollutants from the industrial areas of Germany etc... 

I thought that when fog was mixed with industrial pollutants it became smog, the word of which refers to smoke particles sticking to the fog.  I thought that the clean air act came in during the 1960s, and ever since then we have tended not to get smog.  I mean to say that the most recent time that I can think of for a winter anticyclonic spell with widespread fog over wide areas of the country was December 2006, just before Christmas.  Prior to that high pressure spells in winter still often brought significant fog (although "smog" has not really existed in the UK since the 1960s), although I cannot recall one in the last 15 years that brought fog on a widespread scale, so the UK really has been starved of the "white stuff" in the sense of fog in recent years.

[LetItSnow!]

1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I do not think that February 1891 was particularly cold for the CET (3.9), so even that was still close to average.  

I don’t think you understand my point - it wasn’t cold, but the synoptics today would produce at the very least a very mild February today. 3.9, no chance. 

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 1st February 

These almanac entries will continue to appear in the January thread until the 4th Feb instalment which will be in the Feb thread, to keep the Feb thread focused on forecasts until the entry period has passed. 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 11.4 in 1923; this replaced 10.4 from 1850. The highest value since 1923 is 9.4 from 1985. Other mild readings include 10.1 in 1898, 10.0 in 1914, 9.7 in 1775 and 1889, 9.3 in 1852 and 2004, 9.2 in 1792, 1862, 1866, 1957 and 2000, 9.1 in 1797 and 2020, and 9.0 in 1929 and 2016. ... ... ... (note: cutoff for this section is now moved up to 9.0 for 1-14 Feb and possibly 9.2 15-29th).

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -6.8 in 1956. This replaced what had been the sixth consecutive record low from 1776 (which was -5.9), reducing that run to five days which is still the longest one for cold mean daily records). Other low daily means were -4.5 in 1830, -4.3 in 1954;  the lowest since 1956 was -2.0 in 1972, coldest after that was -1.1 in 1987.

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 13.3 in 2016 which replaced 13.2 from 1898. Other mild days include 13.0 in 1923, 12.4 in 1914 and 2002, 12.2 in 1944, 11.8 in 1948, 11.8 in 2004, 11.6 in 1889 and 1985, 11.5 in 1933 and 1967, 11.3 in 1966, 1975 and 2017, and 11.2 in 1964. (cutoff now 11.2).

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 9.8 in 1923. Other mild minimum readings were 8.0 in 1957 and 2020, 7.9 in 2000, 7.8 in 1889, 7.6 in 1914, 7.5 in 1929, 7.1 in 1985 and 2005, and 7.0 in 1898. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -3.8 in 1956. (1776 was likely similar). Other cold values were -2.4 (1954), -0.1 (1963), 0.3 (2006), 0.4 (1879), 0.7 (1940), 0.9 (1947), and 1.0 (1895 and 1976). 

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -9.7 in 1956. (1776 may have been similar or even colder). Other cold minima include -7.6 in 1972, -6.7 in 1911 and 1987, -6.1 in 1954, -4.4 in 2019, -4.1 in 1895, and -3.7 in 1917.

The wettest 1st of February (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 13.21 mm (1979), followed by 12.59 mm (1950) and 10.33 mm (1990).

The wettest week ending 1st February (26th Jan - 1st Feb) was 53.91 mm in 1995, followed by 52.23 mm (2021), 51.98 mm (1940), 51.04 mm (1943) and 51.10 mm (1990).

The least amount falling in a week ending 1st February was 0.17 mm (1992), followed by 0.65 mm (2007), 0.68 mm (1932), 1.03 mm (1959), 1.08 mm (1949, 1981 and 1998), 1.62 mm (1997), and 1.65 mm (2006).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1956 which was very cold for several days and again later in the month). 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1956&maand=2&dag=01&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

 

Edited February 3, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP looks like it will end at either 35 or 36 mm on the daily tracker depending on whether the small amount for the 31st bumps it up 1 mm or not. The EWP contest has already been scored (from 40 mm) back a few posts in the thread. I will adjust the scoring (changes to average error) tomorrow when they have the tracker estimate. Then it will be adjusted again on the 5th for the final "table" value. There won't be any significant changes to scoring as the lowest forecast in Feb was 55 mm from Godber1.  actually the PIT at 65 mm was lowest, I had managed to enter Godber1 by order of entry (55th) rather than by forecast (72 mm). Thanks to godber 1 for bringing this to my attention. 

Edited February 1, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[February1978]

Looks like the provisional value is 5.1c - what will the correction be......?

[Godber 1]

6 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

The EWP looks like it will end at either 35 or 36 mm on the daily tracker depending on whether the small amount for the 31st bumps it up 1 mm or not. The EWP contest has already been scored (from 40 mm) back a few posts in the thread. I will adjust the scoring (changes to average error) tomorrow when they have the tracker estimate. Then it will be adjusted again on the 5th for the final "table" value. There won't be any significant changes to scoring as the lowest forecast in Feb was 55 mm from Godber1. 

Pretty sure i guessed 72mm roger.

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, February1978 said:

Looks like the provisional value is 5.1c - what will the correction be......?

I do not think that the official January CET is out yet, does anyone else know?

[North-Easterly Blast]

17 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

I don’t think you understand my point - it wasn’t cold, but the synoptics today would produce at the very least a very mild February today. 3.9, no chance. 

I am not certain for sure, but did February 1891 produce widespread fog?  If there were many days in the month with fog over wide areas of the country, it is likely that it would have kept temperatures lower than would have been the case with no fog.

[Roger J Smith]

4 hours ago, Godber 1 said:

Pretty sure i guessed 72mm roger.

Oops thanks for your honesty, I had entered 55 from your order of entry. Had a quick look and determined that otherwise that was not a possible error to make with fewer entries than actual first place 65 mm from the PIT. The scores for top six in February change as a result and edits have been made to the table posted a few days ago in the thread. I will edit the scoring table again tomorrow when I can also edit in the confirmed error values. At that time I will move the edited table to a more visible spot and hopefully we would have final CET value to determine best combined forecast. 

 

2 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I do not think that the official January CET is out yet, does anyone else know?

I don't recall another time where they have posted the final day's estimated value without also posting the final values. Maybe it's the historic significance of the 1st final value as warmest day, that is holding things up. 

Edited February 1, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Don]

3 hours ago, February1978 said:

Looks like the provisional value is 5.1c - what will the correction be......?

Apparently, there was a huge upward correction to 6.1C, which means my guess was spot on!! 

Edited February 1, 2022 by Don