January 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[damianslaw]

January 2000 I recall was very sunny. Think the record is Jan 59 which was also very dry... looks like a very dry very sunny near average Jan on the cards.. quite an odd combo!

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 21st January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 10.8 in 1796 and 1898; since those, the highest value was 10.3 in 2002. Other mild days included  10.1 in 2008, 9.9 in 1878, 9.7 in 1866, 9.6 in 1899, 9.4 in 1846, 9.3 in 1993, 9.1 in 1804, 1902 and 1916, 9.0 in 1954, 8.9 in 1901, 8.8 in 1806, 1840, 1918 and 1943, 8.7 in 1938, 8.6 in 1834, 1921, 1990 and 2012, and 8.5 in 1806. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -8.1 in 1881. Other low daily means were -7.1 in 1940, -5.7 in 1795, -5.5 in 1814, -5.0 in 1942, -3.8 in 1776, -3.2 in 1827, -3.0 in 1880, -2.9 in 1829 and 1867 and -2.8 in 1963. 1838 warmed rapidly after setting the all-time record, mean on 21st only -1.4 C. Since 1963 the lowest mean is only -0.6 in 1979 with -0.4 in 2011 and 2013. 

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 12.4 in 1993 which replaced 12.3 from 1916. Other mild days include 12.1 in 2002, 12.0 in 1898 and 1928, 11.9 in 1990, 11.8 in 1899, 1937 and 1969, 11.5 in 2008, 11.3 in 1878 and 1901, and 11.1 in 1981. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 9.6 in 1898. More recently it was 8.7 in 2008. Other mild minimum readings were 8.5 in 1878 and 2002, 8.3 in 1954, 8.0 in 1902, 7.7 in 1938, 7.4 in 1899, 7.3 in 1921, 7.2 in 1943, 7.1 in 2004 and 7.0 in 1918. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -3.2 in 1881. Other cold values were -2.8 (1942), -1.6 (1963), -0.8 (1940), -0.2 (1879 and 1917), 0.4 (1958), 0.7 (1896 and 2013), 0.9 (1945), and 1.1 (1880).

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -13.4 in 1940 which replaced -12.9 from 1881. Other cold minima include -7.1 in 1942, -7.0 in 1880, -6.8 in 1946, -4.1 in 1945 and 1958, and -3.9 in 1963; the coldest after 1963 was just -3.4 in 2011. Once again that may be replaced by 2022. 

The wettest 21st of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 14.81 mm (1959), followed by 14.40 mm (1995), 14.13 mm (2018), 13.05 mm (1988), 12.82 mm (1941), 11.89 mm (1962) and 10.48 mm (2009). 

The wettest week ending 21st January (15th - 21st Jan) was 54.90 mm in 1995, followed by 50.40 mm (2021) and 49.29 mm (2008). 

The least amount falling in a week ending 21st January was 0.56 mm in 1992, followed by 0.98 mm (1953), 1.03 mm (1935), 1.51 mm (1946), 1.63 mm (1964), 1.80 mm (2000), 2.21 mm (1983), and 2.26 mm (1987).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1940, a very cold interval that was followed a few days later by a rare freezing rain storm.) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1940&maand=1&dag=21&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Edited January 21, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Scorcher]

Looking like an above average finish to me with a bit more cloud cover meaning less cold nights from now on. Probably a drop today and then more or less holding steady until the end of the month.

Certainly one of the most benign Januaries I can remember ever. Also one of the most windless after the first couple of days.

For a sunny month it's also been unusually mild. Yes there have been a few frosts, but no real hard frosts here and it has generally warmed up to the 7-9C range by the afternoon.

[Weather-history]

15 hours ago, damianslaw said:

January 2000 I recall was very sunny. Think the record is Jan 59 which was also very dry... looks like a very dry very sunny near average Jan on the cards.. quite an odd combo!

Never struck me until now how bad the late 1960s and early 1970s were for January sunshine for England and Wales was and this was after the Clean Air act of 1956

1968 to 1973 inclusive, all sub 40hrs of sunshine, yet there have only been two such Januarys since and including 1976

[damianslaw]

31 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Looking like an above average finish to me with a bit more cloud cover meaning less cold nights from now on. Probably a drop today and then more or less holding steady until the end of the month.

Certainly one of the most benign Januaries I can remember ever. Also one of the most windless after the first couple of days.

For a sunny month it's also been unusually mild. Yes there have been a few frosts, but no real hard frosts here and it has generally warmed up to the 7-9C range by the afternoon.

Position of high pressure has been too south to allow cold pooling and low maxima. A nudge further north and a cold month would have been returned. Not has any injection of cold uppers into the high either. Shallow layers of surface cold only.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest CET projection, based on the 06z GFS.

     

Before corrections, the chances of finishing:
Close to average (4.2C to 5.2C) is 78% (3 days ago was 59%)
Above average (>5.2C) is 18% (3 days ago was 18%)
Below average (<4.2C) is 4% (3 days ago was 22%)

The period of the 21st to the 26th is forecast to average 4.7C, 0.5C above the the 91-20 average.

[North-Easterly Blast]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Position of high pressure has been too south to allow cold pooling and low maxima. A nudge further north and a cold month would have been returned. Not has any injection of cold uppers into the high either. Shallow layers of surface cold only.

 

That is just what I was thinking - it has just felt average all the time with a few frosts - and very disappointing as regards fog and low maxima on a large scale at least.  The only worse weather than this that I can think of is 2013-14 when it was just 6-9*C and raining all the time.  Why does the British winter today, especially in more calm HP periods, fail to deliver fog?  I know that Atlantic driven / windy weather is not the right weather conditions for fog, but many years ago calm anticyclonic periods often brought widespread fog.  This HP has just been about the worst I can think of for its delivery not being up to its potential for wintriness, in the sense of significant widespread fog and inverted cold based low maxima.  

[Scorcher]

4 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Position of high pressure has been too south to allow cold pooling and low maxima. A nudge further north and a cold month would have been returned. Not has any injection of cold uppers into the high either. Shallow layers of surface cold only.

 

Yes the odds are always against many cold days with the high in the position it's been in for most of the month. Some seem to believe the myth that any high pressure in January = cold and the potential for ice days. I find it's always very unlikely for most of us in this sort of setup. You're relying on lingering fog to suppress maxima.

That's another thing that has been notable about this month- very little fog to speak of, even first thing in the morning.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 5.2C +0.6C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

[Roger J Smith]

I will post this for continuity, 

 

5.2c to the 20th (rounded from 5.15 by the way)

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

0.4c above the 91 to 20 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 5.2c on the 20th

 

[Weather-history]

It will be interesting come the end of the month to find by how much the first day has added to the CET. It could be as much as 0.3C

Take out those first 3 very mild days and the rest of the month has so far averaged about 4.2C up to yesterday 

 

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I will post this for continuity, 

 

5.2c to the 20th (rounded from 5.15 by the way)

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

0.4c above the 91 to 20 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 5.2c on the 20th

 

Mmm again these values seem suspect to me. Yesterday was a cold one.. today also. I think the true value is probably high 4s at present.

Edited January 21, 2022 by damianslaw

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Mmm again these values seem suspect to me. Yesterday was a cold one.. today also. I think the true value is probably high 4s at present.

It might balance out some of the ridiculous downward adjustments we've had recently. November was a total joke and very suspect indeed. The statistics have been on the lower side of reality if anything in past few months,

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

It will be interesting come the end of the month to find by how much the first day has added to the CET. It could be as much as 0.3C

Take out those first 3 very mild days and the rest of the month has so far averaged about 4.2C up to yesterday 

 

That is just what I thought.  In fact I think that the whole of this winter so far has not felt all that mild apart from the five day exceptionally mild spell at the end of December into the start of January, other than that it has just been stuck at average or just above the rest of the time.  I think that the main disappointing part of this winter is that the pattern has just never come together to bring a significant cold spell to the UK, both just before Christmas and during this month with the blocking setting up totally unfavourably. 

I cannot understand why it happens; the HLB just before Christmas failed to materialize into a cold outbreak from the north or east, and the anticyclonic spell this month has just set up totally unfavourably to allow a cold spell to materialize from the north or even to set up favourably to allow significant fog or proper cold days.  We have not had a large amount of tropical maritime zonality so far this winter, and a fair amount of high pressure around, but it simply has not come together to bring anything special for the UK.

Unless things change in February then this winter will basically just go down as almost a winter of nothingness when the pattern just failed to come together.

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 22nd January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 10.3 in 1878 with 10.2 in 1969 just behind. Other mild days included 9.7 in 1863, 9.6 in 1990, 9.3 in 1846, 1864, 1898 and 1918, 9.1 in 1884, 8.9 in 1899, 8.8 in 1828 and 1901, 8.6 in 1902 and 1976, and 8.5 in 1796, 1834 and 1937.

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -6.4 in 1881, which replaced -6.0 from 1795. Other low daily means were -5.7 in 1808, -5.6 in 1963, -5.4 in 1940, -4.6 in 1814, -4.5 in 1820, -3.9 in 1827, -3.4 in 1784, -3.3 in 1823, -2.9 in 1780, and -2.8 in 1829 and 1958. Since 1963 the lowest mean is only -1.3 in 1992 and 2013. 

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 12.5 in 1878; other mild days include 11.8 in 1960, 11.7 in 1937 and 1969, 11.4 in 1884, 1898 and 1918, 11.3 in 2016, and 11.0 in 1990.

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 8.7 in 1969. Other mild minimum readings were 8.2 in 1990, 8.1 in 1878, 7.7 in 1899, 7.5 in 1901, 7.2 in 1898, 1902, 1918 and 1921, 6.9 in 1993, and 6.8 in 1884 and 2002. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -1.8 in 1963. Other cold values were -0.5 (1879), -0.4 (1881), 0.4 (1917), 0.5 (1979), 0.7 (1958), 0.8 (1945), 0.9 (1940), and 1.3 (1933).

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -12.3 in 1881 and it was also -11.7 in 1940. Other cold minima include -9.3 in 1963, -6.6 in 1942, -6.3 in 1958, -5.4 in 1880, -5.1 in 1992, -4.9 in 1946, -4.1 in 2013, and -4.0 in 1879 and 1945. (also -3.3 in 2011 and -3.1 in 2017)

The wettest 22nd of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 18.86 mm (1944), followed by 13.19 mm (1956), 11.17 mm (2009), and 10.08 mm (1990). 

The wettest week ending 22nd January (16th - 22nd Jan) was 62.07 mm in 1995, followed by 51.27 mm (2009), 51.01 mm (1975) and 49.01 mm (1959). 

The least amount falling in a week ending 22nd January was 0.45 mm in 1953, then 0.56 mm in 1992, followed by 0.98 mm (1935), 1.66 mm (1964), 1.92 mm (1983), 2.15 mm (1987) and 2.30 mm (1950).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1946, another cold spell that has been appearing for several days in the lists above, although not at record cold levels.) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1946&maand=1&dag=22&uur=0600&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

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Edited January 22, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

5.0c to the 21st

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 5.0c on the 21st

[Relativistic]

16 hours ago, Scorcher said:

It might balance out some of the ridiculous downward adjustments we've had recently. November was a total joke and very suspect indeed. The statistics have been on the lower side of reality if anything in past few months,

November's CET was simply a mistake with one of the data (as Roger pointed out). Other recent corrections have been on the larger side of normal but nothing unusual.

[Roger J Smith]

Perhaps it's not any kind of error at all but simply two different protocols being used to generate first the estimated values then later on the "final" values which on rare occasions may not be final values if somebody discovers any error in the procedure. So all we can do is guess what the adjustment will be, by comparing the month to other months in the past. I don't think we would ever come up with any reliable adjustment formula, but subjectively I expect bigger adjustments when there are cold nights, or when the adjustment will monkey with my forecast.

The latter seems to be the dominant factor. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 5.2C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Little pressure to change any of the average values. No sign of any rain and temperatures no real pressure upward or downward for the next five days.

[damianslaw]

Will we nudge into the 4s tomorrow... looks like the CET will probably bottom out now with nothing particularly below average on the cards indeed looks average if not a little above in the days ahead. Still a fair while to go but my prediction is a finish in the high 4s possibly low 5s if we see something milder.. this isn't factoring into account any downward adjustments which depending on their extent if verify could see the figure entering the low 4s but this an outside chance. 

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 23rd January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 11.6 in 1834 with 10.2 in 1960 the warmest since then. The 11.6 value is one of three that were tied for warmest in January before (in all likelihood) 1st Jan 2022 replaced them all. Other mild days included 10.4 in 1782, 10.1 in 1840, 9.8 in 1884, 9.6 in 1836 and 1969, 9.3 in 1817 and 1918, 9.2 in 1900, 9.1 in 2018, 8.7 in 1796 and 1856, and 8.6 in 1937 and 2002. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -8.4 in 1963, which replaced -7.2 from 1795. Other low daily means were -4.8 in 1829, -4.1 in 1814 and 1823, -3.9 in 1809 and 1940, -3.6 in 1780, -3.1 in 1881, -2.9 in 1781, -2.8 in 1813 and 1879, and -2.7 in 1945, 1958 and 1992. 

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 13.0 in 1884 (1834 was possibly a bit higher); other mild days include 12.5 in 2018, 12.2 in 1993 and 2008, 11.9 in 2016, 11.7 in 1969, 11.3 in 1900, 11.2 in 1960, 11.0 in 2002, and 10.9 in 1918. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 9.2 in 1960. Other mild minimum readings were 7.7 in 1918, 7.5 in 1969, 7.1 in 1900, and 6.8 in 1902. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -3.6 in 1963. Other cold values were -1.0 (1945), -0.6 (1897), -0.3 (1879), -0.1 (1907), 0.2 (1992), 0.3 (1917), 0.5 (1881 and 1940), 0.8 (1979), 0.9 (1958), 1.0 (1880 and 2013), 1.3 (1946) and 1.4 (1933).

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -13.2 in 1963. Other cold minima include -8.2 in 1940, -6.6 in 1881, -6.3 in 1958, -5.9 in 1933, -5.6 in 1942 and 1992, -5.2 in 1879, -4.3 in 1945, -4.1 in 1907, and -3.9 in 2015. 

The wettest 23rd of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 17.98 mm (1960), followed by 17.89 mm (1988), 17.44 mm (1942), 14.36 mm (2001), 13.81 mm (1984), 11.45 mm (1978), and 11.30 mm (1971). 

The wettest week ending 23rd January (17th - 23rd Jan) was 57.92 mm in 1995, followed by 50.95 mm (1960), and 49.84 mm (1959). 

The least amount falling in a week ending 23rd January was 0.30 mm in 1953, then 0.56 mm in 1992, 0.83 mm (1950), followed by 1.31 mm (1935), 1.35 mm (2017), 1.42 mm (1947), 1.99 mm (1932), and 2.29 mm (1987).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1963, showing the coldest portion of that legendary cold winter, caused by a strong high pressure area that drifted in from around Iceland. ) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1963&maand=1&dag=23&uur=0600&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 5.2C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

High pressure not really going anywhere . For us I suspect any cooler days will be offset by milder nights in the next few days.

[Summer Sun]

5.0c to the 22nd

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 5.0c on the 21st & 22nd

[emmett garland]

Can I just ask are we on one of the lowest weeks ever ,precipitation wise Roger..Would love to see the figures.

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

5.0c to the 22nd

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 5.0c on the 21st & 22nd

Ah still held on 5. Tomorrow and Tuesday look quite cold in CET zone would not be surprised to see a slight drop.