January 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5C +0.4C above normal. Rainfall still at 19.8mm 26.6% of the monthly average

Likely finishing spot for us looks like 5.1C to 5.3C. Probably around 21 to 23mm of rain if that.

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 27th January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 10.5 in 2016 which replaced 10.4 from 2003; the record before that had been 10.1 from 1867. Other mild readings on this date include 9.8 in 1843 and 1908, 9.7 in 2002, 9.5 in 1904,  9.2 in 1983, 9.1 in 1958 and 1989, 9.0 in 1903,  8.9 in 1834, 8.8 in 1926, and 8.7 in 1773, and 8.6 in 1969. (also worth noting that 6.0 in 1795 was the one somewhat mild day in that record cold month; 0.8 on 29th 1814 and 2.4 on 28th 1963 were the highest means in those very cold Januaries.)

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -6.5 in 1776. This was the first of five consecutive record lows, a run unequalled in the rest of the year. This had been six consecutive until 1st Feb 1956 replaced one record. Other low daily means were -5.6 in 1945, -4.2 in 1979, -3.7 in 1952, -3.6 in 1803 and 1910, -3.5 in 1895, -3.1 in 1870, -3.0 in 1880, -2.9 in 1778 and 1827, and -2.8 in 1848;  the lowest since 1979 was -1.5 in 1996. 

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 13.4 in 2002 replaced 13.0 from 1958. Other mild days include 12.8 in 2003, 12.6 in 2016, 12.3 in 1944, 12.2 in 1989, 11.8 in 1983, 11.7 in 1967, 11.4 in 1908, 11.3 in 1904 and 1926 and 10.9 in 2018. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 8.4 in 2016 which replaced 8.2 from 1908. Other mild minimum readings were 8.1 in 1903, 8.0 in 2003, 7.7 in 1904, 7.3 in 1962, and 6.8 in 1969. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -0.8 in 1945 and 1954. Other cold values were  -0.2 (1947), 0.1 (1979), 0.3 (1909), 0.4 (1895), 0.7 (1880 and 1952), 1.0 (1996), 1.1 (1879) and 1.3 (1917, 1933 and 1940). 

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -10.3 in 1945. Other cold minima include -9.8 in 1910, -8.4 in 1979, -8.1 in 1952, -7.4 in 1895, -6.7 in 1880, -5.4 in 1942, -5.3 in 1881, -4.9 in 1929 and 1950, -4.7 in 1909 and 1985, -4.5 in 1933, -4.1 in 1996, -4.0 in 1907 and -3.7 in 1992. 

The wettest 27th of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 17.12 mm (2021), followed by 16.66 mm (1995), 15.33 mm (1990), 14.19 mm (1978), 13.28 mm (1940), and 10.39 mm (1960). 

The wettest week ending 27th January (21st - 27th Jan) was 66.10 mm in 1995, followed by 56.18 mm (1988), 55.1 mm (1990), and 49.65 mm (1984).

The least amount falling in a week ending 27th January was 0.05 mm (1933), followed by 0.38 mm (1963), 0.45 mm (1950), 0.80 mm (1991), 0.91 mm (1987), 1.35 mm (1987), 1.70 mm (1932) and 1.86 mm (2006).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1910 to document a brief but relatively sharp cold spell.) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1910&maand=1&dag=27&uur=0600&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

[Summer Sun]

4.8c to the 26th

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 4.8c on the 25th & 26th

[damianslaw]

My guess final figure either 4.9 or 5.0 degrees as expecting a slight rise in days ahead. This doesn't take into account any downward adjustment with this factor accounted for a finish anywhere in the range of 4.3 to 5.0 degrees. 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP is stuck at 33 mm to 25th and may have added 1 mm yesterday, GFS four-day total to end of month is only around 5 mm if that, as some rain moves into northern England. Feeling confident that outcome is around 40 mm so will report on January scoring and two-month total "annual" scoring today, plan to edit this post with updated values but scores cannot change very much as all forecasts for January are 65 mm or higher. The only thing that could change slightly would be the average errors. The report will include all players in both contests but only those who entered both months are ranked for average error. I will broaden this to 2/3 contests after February, and work the average error towards a final minimum criterion of 9/12 contests. Total score simply adds your monthly scores, there is no separation into divisions as (unless you do like coldest winter last year) most of the separation occurs automatically after several zero scores. 

To see the January results, look at the column for "ranks by month" and that will reveal the order of finish for January. This table is the current annual scoring ... rank includes late penalty adjustments and ranks for errors may be slightly different as in most cases one day late will drop your rank at least one spot and sometimes two, relative to nearby forecasts that were not quite as accurate but on time.

 

[]-----=====<<< SCORING SUMMARY for EWP CONTEST _ Dec-Jan >>>=====-----[]

 

Rank __ Forecaster _________ Points _____ Avg error (rank) ______ Rank by month (Dec, Jan)

_ 01 ___ freeze ______________ 18.93 ______ 16.80 mm (1) ________ 3, 5

_ 02 ___ Godber1 ____________16.34 ______ 20.80 mm (3) ________16, 6

_ 03 ___ Roger J Smith _______ 16.02 ______ 19.80 mm (2) ________21, 3

_ 04 ___ seaside60 ___________ 15.79 ______ 28.70 mm (6) _______ 1, 21

_ 05 ___ Feb91Blizzard _______ 15.24 ______ 30.70 mm (t8) ______ 4, 22

_ 06 ___ SLEETY ______________ 13.77 ______ 32.70 mm (11) ______13, 20

_ 07 ___ daniel* ______________ 13.63 ______ 27.70 mm (5) _______30, 7

_ 08 ___ Mr Maunder _________13.12 ______ 24.20 mm (4) _______39, 2

_ 08 ___ noname_weather ___ 13.04 ______ 29.70 mm (7) _______32, 8

_ 10 ___ February1978 _______ 12.77 ______ 33.80 mm (13) ______8, 30

_ 11 ___ virtualsphere ________ 12.62 ______ 32.20 mm (10) ______31,11

_ 12 ___ Midlands Ice Age ____ 12.55 ______ 36.70 mm (18) ______ 5, 35

_ 13 ___ dancerwithwings ____ 12.21 ______ 34.70 mm (t15) _____20,23

_ 14 ___ Stewfox ______________12.13 ______ 33.30 mm (12) ______ 33,12

_ 15 ___ Mulzy ________________ 11.91 ______ 34.70 mm (t15) _____ 19,25

_ 16 ___ Ed Stone _____________ 11.75 ______ 35.70 mm (17) ______ 18,27

_ 17 ___ The PIT _______________11.05 ______ 30.70 mm (t8) _______52, 1

_ 18 ___ stevew _______________ 10.99 ______ 34.20 mm (14) ______ 42,10

_ 19 ___ davehsug ____________ 10.86 ______ 47.20 mm (t34) ______6, 43

_ 20 ___ Weather26 ___________ 10.83 ______ 36.80 mm (t19) _____24,26

_ 21 ___ JeffC __________________ 10.67 ______ 38.20 mm (22) _____ 34,18

_ 22 ___ Reef __________________ 10.38 ______ 38.80 mm (23) _____ 22,29

_ 23 ___ J10 ____________________10.35 ______ 36.80 mm (t19) ____ 26,28

_ 24 ___ BlastFromThePast ____10.13 ______ 42.20 mm (26) _____ 12,40

_ 25 ___ Mapantz _______________ 9.82 _______ 3.60 mm (---) ______ 2, ---

_ 26 ___ Bobd29 ________________ 9.74 ______ 37.90 mm (21) _____ 43,15

_ 27 ___ DiagonalRedLine _______9.72 ______ 43.20 mm (t27) ____ 56, 4

_ 28 ___ Stargazer _______________9.52 ______ 39.20 mm (24) _____ 40,19

_ 29 ___ Polar Gael ______________ 9.32 ______ 54.50 mm (41) _____ 9, 48

_ 30 ___ Norrance _______________ 9.00 ______ 40.20 mm (25) _____ 36,24

_ 31 ___ AWD ____________________ 8.94 _______ 5.40 mm (---) ______ 7, ----

_ 32 ___ Emmett Garland ________ 8.69 _______50.70 mm (39) _____15,45

_ 33 ___ ProlongedSnowLover ___ 8.57 ______ 43.80 mm (30) _____ 23,39

_ 34 ___ Neil N ___________________ 8.51 ______ 44.20 mm (31) _____ 53,13

_ 35 ___ John88b _________________ 8.41 _______ 6.40 mm (----) _____ 10, ----

_ 36 ___ Kasim Awan _____________ 8.34 ______ 44.00 mm (----) ____ ----, 9

_ 37 ___ snowray _________________ 8.20 ______ 43.45 mm (29) ____ 51,17

_ 38 ___ Booferking ______________ 8.06 _______ 7.40 mm (----) ____ 11, ----

_ 39 ___ Summer Blizzard ________8.05 _______48.20 mm (t37) ___ 54,14

_ 40 ___ Let It Snow! ______________7.83 ______ 43.20 mm (t27) ____ 29,37

_ 41 ___ Typhoon John ___________ 7.70 _______ 8.60 mm (----) _____ 14, ----

_ 42 ___ summer 18 ______________7.34 ______ 70.20 mm (46) _____ 17,51

_ 43 ___ Jonboy __________________ 7.18 ______ 44.70 mm (32) _____ 38,32

_ 44 ___ Don _____________________ 7.09 ______ 51.80 mm (40) _____ 27,44

_ 45 ___ Dunstable Snow ________ 6.93 ______ 52.00 mm (----) _____ ---,16

_ 46 ___ DR(S)NO _________________6.57 ______ 48.20 mm (t37) ____ 35,38

_ 47 ___ syed2878 ________________6.36 ______ 59.30 mm (42) _____ 25,49

_ 48 ___ Leo97t ___________________5.94 ______ 46.80 mm (33) _____ 41,36

_ 49 ___ weather-history _________ 5.90 ______ 47.20 mm (t34) ____ 47,31

_ 50 ___ Stationary Front _________ 5.82 ______ 47.30 mm (36) _____ 44,34

_ 51 ___ Coldest Winter __________ 5.25 ______ 15.00 mm (----) _____ 28, ----

_ 52 ___ froze were the days _____ 3.80 ______ 21.40 mm (----) _____ 37, ----

_ 53 ___ sundog __________________ 3.51 ______ 68.00 mm (----) _____ ----, 33

_ 54 ___ rwtwm ___________________ 3.35 ______ 60.70 mm (43) _____ 50,41

_ 55 ___ Frigid _____________________2.80 ______ 63.20 mm (44) _____ 48,46

_ 56 ___ IRememberAtlantic252___2.53 ______ 66.80 mm (45) _____ 49,47

_ 57 ___ SteveB ____________________2.27 ______ 82.70 mm (48) _____45,52

_ 58 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather ________2.09 ______ 28.80 mm (----) _____46, ----

_ 59 ___ summer8906 _____________ 1.75 ______ 90.00 mm (----) _____---, 42

_ 60 ___ shillitocettwo _____________ 0.90 ______ 77.70 mm (47) _____55,50

_ 61 ___ Earthshine ________________ 0.18 ______ 61.40 mm (----) _____57, ----

_ 62 ___ Ross Andrew Hemphill ____0.06 ______ 61.40 mm (----) _____58, ----

_______________________________________________

_ 1.8 ___ 1992-2021 average ______ 16.65 ______ 28.45 mm (5.7) ____ 1.5, 17.7

_ 4.6 ___ 1981-2010 average ______ 15.48 ______ 31.00 mm (9.3) ____ 8.9, 17.2

_14.8 ___ consensus ______________11.96 ______ 35.45 mm (16.7) ___ 17.5, 26

================================================================

Note: ranks for consensus and recent normals are decimal to show where they sit relative to forecasters.

The rank of 1.8 for 1992-2021 avg signifies that the points are between 1st and 2nd in the scoring table, and

closer to second than first. The two averages are doing very well and our consensus is fairly well ranked too.

January errors were generally larger than December errors for similar scoring levels, so this explains the slight

discrepancy between scoring ranks and average error ranks. Also a forecast that is late receives no penalty to 

rank of average error. 

The seasonal ranks are basically the same as the above, but one will need to enter 2 out of 3 at least, to be ranked

for the winter season. 

 

Edited February 1, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5C still +0.4C above normal. Rainfall up to 20.5mm 27.6% of the monthly average.

Landing zone looks to be around 5.1C to 5.3C for us. Rainfall 21mm to 23mm.

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 28th January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 9.8 in 1944 which is the lowest record high daily mean of the entire year. 9.7 in 1983 came close to tying that mark. Other mild readings on this date include 9.5 in 1843, 9.4 in 1809, 1875 and 1967, 9.3 in 1943 and 1953, 9.2 in 1958, 9.0 in 1869 and 2002, 8.9 in 1921 and 2018, 8.8 in 2021, 8.7 in 1906, and 8.6 in 1789, 1804 and 1966.

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -6.3 in 1776. This was the second of five consecutive record lows, a run unequalled in the rest of the year. This had been six consecutive until 1st Feb 1956 replaced one record. Other low daily means were -6.1 in 1865, -4.4 in 1848, -4.3 in 1979, -4.0 in 1895, -3.8 in 1954, -3.5 in 1880, -2.8 in 1813 and -2.7 in 1945;  the lowest since 1979 was -1.8 in 1996. 

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 12.6 in 2018 replaced 11.8 from 1921. Other mild days include 11.6 in 2021, 11.5 in 2002, 11.4 in 1943 and 1966, 11.3 in 1983, 11.0 in 1938 and 10.9 in 1944, 1994 and 2016.

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 8.8 in 1958 which replaced 8.2 from 1908. Other mild minimum readings were 8.7 in 1944, 8.1 in 1983, 8.0 in 1967, 7.5 in 1953, 7.2 in 1943, 7.1 in 1904, and 7.0 in 1906.

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -1.1 in 1895 and 1954. (1776 was likely closer to -2 or -3).  Other cold values were -0.7 (1880 and 1940), -0.6 (1947), -0.4 (1917), 0.3 (1879), 0.9 (1937 and 1945), 1.1 (1996), and 1.2 (1912). 

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -11.1 in 1979. Other cold minima include -7.4 in 1952, -7.2 in 1909, -6.8 in 1895, -6.5 in 1954, -6.3 in 1880 and 1945, -6.1 in 1912, -4.5 in 1996, -4.3 in 1910, and -3.6 in 1992. 

The wettest 28th of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 15.09 mm (1958), followed by 12.48 mm (1936), and 11.71 mm (1961). Since then, the highest daily amount was 10.29 mm (2021).

The wettest week ending 28th January (22nd - 28th Jan) was 58.32 mm in 1995, followed by 52.16 mm (1988), 51.65 mm (1960), 51.45 mm (1990), and 49.74 mm (1940).

The least amount falling in a week ending 28th January was 0.12 mm (1933), followed by 0.32 mm (1950), 0.52 mm (1963), 0.77 mm (1987), 0.82 mm (1991), 0.98 mm (1932), 1.42 mm (1998), and 1.86 mm (2006).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1979 to document another relatively sharp cold spell.) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1979&maand=1&dag=28&uur=0600&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Bookmark

Edited January 28, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

4.9c to the 27th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 4.8c on the 25th & 26th

[Weather-history]

Looks odd on that it will be the driest January since 2006 for England and Wales. Probably the driest winter month since February 2012.

[damianslaw]

52 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Looks odd on that it will be the driest January since 2006 for England and Wales. Probably the driest winter month since February 2012.

Jan 06 was very anticyclonic. Colder than this month but strong similarities. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Jan 06 was very anticyclonic. Colder than this month but strong similarities. 

I think that January 2006 saw another anticyclonic pattern that never really came together and set up favourably to bring a significant cold spell to the UK; in fact winter 2005-06 was a very average winter for temperatures with a fair amount of blocking but never favourably set up for a really cold spell to manifest itself in the UK; I believe that there was a bit of inversion cold late / Jan early Feb that year, and we finally late on that winter, did get a much colder pattern setting up in late February into March; winter 2005-06 was very much a failed opportunity for a cold winter; there was a fair amount of cold air near the UK that year and a fair amount of blocking, but disappointingly the blocking never really set up favourably to allow the really cold air to make it to the UK, so synoptic-wise (when you would look at the charts and think there would have been a decent chance of a cold winter) it was a disappointing winter from a cold perspective, in a blocked pattern never coming together, even though it was not a mild winter overall.  Winter 2005-06 could be another example of the warm September theory ruining the cold prospects for winter as September 2005 was pretty warm.  

Unless a better pattern develops in February I think winter 2021-22 could well be looked upon as another missed opportunity where the pattern just failed to come together.

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 29th January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 10.4 in 1854. The highest values since then are 10.2 from 1953 and 1966. Other mild readings on this date include 10.0 in 2002, 9.8 in 1843 and 1921, 9.7 in 1786 and 1885, 9.5 in 1781, 9.3 in 2018, 9.0 in 1862 and 1967, 8.8 in 1863 and 1955, and 8.6 in 1775, 1851 and 1858. (note that the mean of 0.8 on 29th in 1814 was the highest of that very cold month and this is a record low value for any month. The monthly mean was -2.9 C).

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -6.7 in 1776. This was the third of five consecutive record lows, and had been six consecutive until 1st Feb 1956 replaced one record. Other low daily means were -6.4 in 1947, -3.8 in 1895, -3.7 in 1784 and 1912, -3.3 in 1772, -3.0 in 1857 and 1865, -2.9 in 1795, -2.8 in 1813 and 1945;  the lowest since 1947 was -1.6 in 1951 with -1.5 in 1954 and -1.4 in 2011. 

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 13.0 in 2002 which replaced 12.3 from 1961. Other mild days include 12.8 in 2013, 12.2 in 2002, 12.1 in 1966 and 2000, 11.9 in 1953, 11.7 in 1967, 11.6 in 1975 and 2016, 11.4 in 1892, 11.2 in 1885, 11.0 in 1982, and 10.9 in 1898, 1925 and 1956.

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 9.0 in 1921 which replaced 8.2 from 1885. The highest value since 1921 was 8.5 in 1953 and 2018. Other mild minimum readings were 8.3 in 1966, 7.2 in 1955, 7.0 in 2002, and 6.9 in 1943 and 1957.

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -3.8 in 1947. (1776 was likely similar, I mentioned its five-day run of record low means 27th-31st, and today's record came very close to being broken by 1947).  Other cold values were -2.1 (1940), -0.6 (1895 and 1937), -0.5 (1917), 0.1 (1879), 0.4 (1912 and 1950), 1.0 (1972) and 1.1 (1951, 1991 and 1996). 

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -8.9 in 1947. Other cold minima include -8.5 in 1945, -7.8 in 1912, -6.9 in 1895, -5.1 in 1954, -5.2 in 1979, -4.3 in 1951 and 2011, and -3.9 in 1880.

The wettest 29th of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 15.98 mm (1945), followed by 12.57 mm (1961), 11.17 mm (1946), 10.33 mm (1970). Since then, the highest daily amount was 9.61 mm (2017).

The wettest week ending 29th January (23rd - 29th Jan) was 56.06 mm in 1988, followed by 55.43 mm (1960), 55.25 mm (1995), 51.08 mm (1940), and 50.10 mm (1990).

The least amount falling in a week ending 29th January was 0.65 mm (1987), followed by 0.69 mm (1998), 0.72 mm (1932), 1.07 mm (1997), 1.19 mm (1991), 1.54 mm (1959), 1.74 mm (1933), and 1.84 mm (2006).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1947 to document how that extended cold spell first set up (this was one of its coldest phases but it would persist until mid-March). 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1947&maand=1&dag=29&uur=0600&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Edited May 12, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 5.1C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

4.9c to the 28th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 4.8c on the 25th & 26th

[damianslaw]

Suspect the CET will rise to 5.0 degrees tomorrow, and then hold for last 2 days. With any downward corrections, a finish between 4.4 and 5 degrees.

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 30th January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 10.2 in 2000 replacing 10.0 from 1923. Other mild readings include 9.7 in 1955, 9.6 in 1787, 9.3 in 1967 and 2002, 9.2 in 1786 and 1921, 9.1 in 1854, 1869 and 1892, 9.0 in 1982, 8.8 in 1885, 1914 and 1966, 8.7 in 1925 and 2013, and 8.6 in 1898.

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -7.5 in 1776. This was the fourth of five consecutive record lows, which had been six consecutive until 1st Feb 1956 replaced one record. Other low daily means were -5.1 in 1947, -3.8 in 1795, -3.6 in 1816 and 1895, -3.0 in 1831 and 1839, and -2.9 in 1972;  the lowest since 1972 was -1.7 in 1987. 

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 12.7 in 1975 which replaced 12.4 from 1948. Other mild days include 12.2 in 1898, 11.9 in 2000, 11.7 in 1929, 11.6 in 1925 and 2020, 11.5 in 1923, 11.4 in 1955, 11.3 in 1914, 11.2 in 2002, and 11.1 in 1966. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 8.5 in 1923 which replaced 8.4 from 1921, before which the record had been 7.8 from 1885 and 1892. The highest value since 1923 was 8.4 in 2000. Other mild minimum readings were 8.2 in 1967, 8.1 in 1982, 8.0 in 1955, 7.5 in 2002 and 7.1 in 2013. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -1.4 in 1947. (1776 was likely closer to -3 or -4).  Other cold values were -1.2 (1972), -0.6 (1895), -0.2 (1940), 0.3 (1879 and 1917), 0.7 (1976) and 0.8 (1954). 

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -8.7 in 1947. Other cold minima include -6.9 in 1945, -6.7 in 1912, -6.6 in 1895, -5.4 in 1888, -4.9 in 1987, -4.6 in 1972, -4.1 in 1977, -4.0 in 1951, and -3.6 in 1954.

The wettest 30th of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 15.00 mm (2004), followed by 13.75 mm (1943), 12.74 mm (1942), 11.47 mm (1956), 10.81 mm (1953) and 10.71 mm (1990).

The wettest week ending 30th January (24th - 30th Jan) was 58.72 mm in 1995, followed by 55.05 mm in 1990, and 52.61 mm (1940).

The least amount falling in a week ending 30th January was 0.50 mm (1987), followed by 0.77 mm (1932), 0.79 mm (1949), 0.80 mm (1998), 0.87 mm (1997), 1.04 mm (1959), 1.85 mm (2006), and 1.87 mm (1981).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1954 which was experiencing a prolonged rather cold spell). 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1954&maand=1&dag=30&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Edited January 30, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Weather-history]

Peculiarities of the weather.  

 EWP values for the Januarys of 2021 and 2022

2021: 146.0mm

2022: 30+mm

Then I was asked to put these CETs of 3.1C and high 4+Cs with the correct years based just on those EWP values. I would instinctively put the 3.1C with the drier month.

That CET of 3.1C is low for such a wet month. Last January is the 12th wettest January on record for the EWP.  

This January is far drier and the CET will be comfortably over 1.0C warmer than last January.

 

 

 

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Peculiarities of the weather.  

 EWP values for the Januarys of 2021 and 2022

2021: 146.0mm

2022: 30+mm

Then I was asked to put these CETs of 3.1C and high 4+Cs with the correct years based just on those EWP values. I would instinctively put the 3.1C with the drier month.

That CET of 3.1C is low for such a wet month. Last January is the 12th wettest January on record for the EWP.  

This January is far drier and the CET will be comfortably over 1.0C warmer than last January.

 

 

 

Enjoyed last January alot, cold and unsettled, a rare combination as you say. Much precipitation fell as snow at times. This January has been equally intriguing albeit far less interesting the very dry and not particularly cold combo quite unusual.

[Summer Sun]

5.1c to the 29th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 4.8c on the 25th & 26th

[damianslaw]

A bigger jump than expected, thought we would be on 5 degrees, we might even nudge to 5.2 degrees tomorrow - but suspect this is the high mark. A finish between 4.5 and 5.1 degrees likely.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.3C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall up to 20.7mm 27.8% of the monthly average.

Looking like a 5.2C finish for us.

[damianslaw]

8 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.3C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall up to 20.7mm 27.8% of the monthly average.

Looking like a 5.2C finish for us.

A fairly mild and very dry January then, when was the last time we had such a combination. Jan 17 from memory was fairly dry but temps were closer to average. I'm struggling to remember such a combination, 1992 was very dry but average temp wise.... any examples? Jan 76!

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Enjoyed last January alot, cold and unsettled, a rare combination as you say. Much precipitation fell as snow at times. This January has been equally intriguing albeit far less interesting the very dry and not particularly cold combo quite unusual.

Last January was awful- so much cold, wet weather. Puzzling how anyone could enjoy it.

If we're going to have snow, at least make it proper snow as opposed to a sleety mess which is how I remember last Jan.

54 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A fairly mild and very dry January then, when was the last time we had such a combination. Jan 17 from memory was fairly dry but temps were closer to average. I'm struggling to remember such a combination, 1992 was very dry but average temp wise.... any examples? Jan 76!

January 2012 stands out as one for me.

[The PIT]

53 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A fairly mild and very dry January then, when was the last time we had such a combination. Jan 17 from memory was fairly dry but temps were closer to average. I'm struggling to remember such a combination, 1992 was very dry but average temp wise.... any examples? Jan 76!

Nope average temperature wise but very dry unless we get a deluge tonight. At the moment 4th driest on record for us since 1955

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

A fairly mild and very dry January then, when was the last time we had such a combination. Jan 17 from memory was fairly dry but temps were closer to average. I'm struggling to remember such a combination, 1992 was very dry but average temp wise.... any examples? Jan 76!

Januarys 1949, 1989, 2000, 2005 are examples of drier and milder than average Januarys

 

Edited January 30, 2022 by Weather-history