January 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 2nd February 

These almanac entries will continue to appear in the January thread until the 4th Feb instalment which will be in the Feb thread, to keep the Feb thread focused on forecasts until the entry period has passed. 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 11.0 in 1923; this replaced 10.0 from 1792. The highest values since 1923 were near misses of 10.9 in both 2002 and 2004. Other mild readings include 10.4 in 1967, 10.2 in 1944, 9.8 in 1850, 1852 and 1914, 9.7 in 2017, 9.6 in 1797, 1862 and 1948, and 9.1 in 1966. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -6.5 in 1956. This replaced -5.9 from 1830. Other low daily means were -5.0 in 1954, -4.5 in 1963, -3.9 in 1912, -3.4 in 1841, and -2.5 in 1829;  the lowest since 1963 was -1.4 in 2006 and 2012, with -1.0 in 2009.

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 13.5 in 2004 which replaced 12.4 from 1914 and 1948. Other mild days include 12.1 2002, 12.0 in 1944 and 1967, 11.7 in 1923, 11.6 in 2020, 11.5 in 1935 and 2017, and 11.2 in 1964. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 10.3 in 1923. Other mild minimum readings were 9.7 in 2002, 8.8 in 1967, 8.4 in 1944, 8.0 in 2004, 7.9 in 2017, and 7.2 in 1914 and 1966. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -2.9 in 1956. (1830 was perhaps similar to -2 C). Other cold values were -1.5 (1912 and 1963), -1.0 (1954), -0.4 (2006), 0.1 (1940), 0.6 (2009), 0.7 (1976), 1.0 (1917) and 1.1 (1911). 

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -10.0 in 1956. (1830 may have been similar or around -9). Other cold minima include -8.9 in 1954, -7.4 in 1963, -6.2 in 1907 and 1912, -5.8 in 1911, -5.1 in 1888, -4.6 in 1917, -4.2 in 2012 and -4.0 in 1987.

The wettest 2nd of February (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 17.04 mm (1950), followed by 12.54 mm (1981) and 9.83 mm (1937).

The wettest week ending 2nd February (27th Jan - 2nd Feb) was 60.42 mm in 1995, followed by 55.73 mm (2021), 53.13 mm (1943) and 52.92 mm (1988).

The least amount falling in a week ending 2nd February was 0.28 mm (2007), followed by 0.66 mm (1932), 1.07 mm (1949), 1.09 mm (1959), 1.29 mm (1998), 1.36 mm (2006), 1.41 mm (1939), 1.49 mm (1996), and 1.67 mm (1997).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1923 towards the end of a very mild three-day interval). 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1923&maand=2&dag=02&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Edited February 2, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP tracker has finished at 36 mm. An adjusted final value will be known on the 5th. This is the scoring summary amended to reflect this value, and when the 5th rolls around and a slightly different value is posted, I will edit this to show the correct average error stats, but nothing else can change by more than .01 (the percentage error deduction stat is based on intervals and can theoretically change). 

Note: 5 Feb _ the value is adjusted to 36.3 mm. This has only changed the values of the average error (which was reduced by 0.15 for those entering two months, 0.3 for those entering only January). 

 

[]-----=====<<< SCORING SUMMARY for EWP CONTEST _ Dec-Jan >>>=====-----[]

 

Rank __ Forecaster _________ Points _____ Avg error (rank) ______ Rank by month (Dec, Jan)

_ 01 ___ freeze ______________ 18.93 ______ 18.65 mm (1) ________ 3, 5

_ 02 ___ Godber1 ____________16.34 ______ 22.65 mm (3) ________16, 6

_ 03 ___ Roger J Smith _______ 16.02 ______ 21.65 mm (2) ________21, 3

_ 04 ___ seaside60 ___________ 15.79 ______ 30.55 mm (6) _______ 1, 21

_ 05 ___ Feb91Blizzard _______ 15.24 ______32.55 mm (t8) ______ 4, 22

_ 06 ___ SLEETY ______________ 13.77 ______ 34.55 mm (11) ______13, 20

_ 07 ___ daniel* ______________ 13.63 ______ 29.55 mm (5) _______30, 7

_ 08 ___ Mr Maunder _________13.12 ______ 26.05 mm (4) _______39, 2

_ 08 ___ noname_weather ___ 13.04 ______ 31.55 mm (7) _______32, 8

_ 10 ___ February1978 _______ 12.77 ______ 35.65 mm (13) ______8, 30

_ 11 ___ virtualsphere ________ 12.62 ______ 36.05 mm (10) ______31,11

_ 12 ___ Midlands Ice Age ____ 12.55 ______ 38.55 mm (18) ______ 5, 35

_ 13 ___ dancerwithwings ____ 12.21 ______ 36.55 mm (t15) _____20,23

_ 14 ___ Stewfox ______________12.13 ______ 35.15 mm (12) ______ 33,12

_ 15 ___ Mulzy ________________ 11.91 ______ 36.55 mm (t15) _____ 19,25

_ 16 ___ Ed Stone _____________ 11.75 ______ 37.55 mm (17) ______ 18,27

_ 17 ___ The PIT _______________11.05 ______ 32.55 mm (t8) _______52, 1

_ 18 ___ stevew _______________ 10.99 ______ 36.05 mm (14) ______ 42,10

_ 19 ___ davehsug ____________ 10.86 _______49.05 mm (t34) ______6, 43

_ 20 ___ Weather26 ___________ 10.83 ______ 38.65 mm (t19) _____24,26

_ 21 ___ JeffC __________________ 10.67 ______ 40.05 mm (22) _____ 34,18

_ 22 ___ Reef __________________ 10.38 ______ 40.65 mm (23) _____ 22,29

_ 23 ___ J10 ____________________10.35 ______ 38.65 mm (t19) ____ 26,28

_ 24 ___ BlastFromThePast ____10.13 ______ 44.05 mm (26) _____ 12,40

_ 25 ___ Mapantz _______________ 9.82 _______ 3.60 mm (---) ______ 2, ---

_ 26 ___ Bobd29 ________________ 9.74 ______ 39.75 mm (21) _____ 43,15

_ 27 ___ DiagonalRedLine _______9.72 ______ 45.05 mm (t27) ____ 56, 4

_ 28 ___ Stargazer _______________9.52 ______ 41.05 mm (24) _____ 40,19

_ 29 ___ Polar Gael ______________ 9.32 ______ 56.35 mm (41) _____ 9, 48

_ 30 ___ Norrance _______________ 9.00 ______ 42.05 mm (25) _____ 36,24

_ 31 ___ AWD ____________________ 8.94 _______ 5.40 mm (---) ______ 7, ----

_ 32 ___ Emmett Garland ________ 8.69 _______52.55 mm (39) _____15,45

_ 33 ___ ProlongedSnowLover ___ 8.57 ______ 45.65 mm (30) _____ 23,39

_ 34 ___ Neil N ___________________ 8.51 _______46.05 mm (31) _____ 53,13

_ 35 ___ John88b _________________ 8.41 _______ 6.40 mm (----) _____ 10, ----

_ 36 ___ Kasim Awan _____________ 8.34 ______ 47.70 mm (----) ____ ----, 9

_ 37 ___ snowray _________________ 8.20 ______ 45.30 mm (29) ____ 51,17

_ 38 ___ Booferking ______________ 8.06 _______ 7.40 mm (----) ____ 11, ----

_ 39 ___ Summer Blizzard ________8.05 _______50.05 mm (t37) ___ 54,14

_ 40 ___ Let It Snow! ______________7.83 ______ 45.05 mm (t27) ____ 29,37

_ 41 ___ Typhoon John ___________ 7.70 _______ 8.60 mm (----) _____ 14, ----

_ 42 ___ summer 18 ______________7.34 ______ 72.05 mm (46) _____ 17,51

_ 43 ___ Jonboy __________________ _7.18 ______ 46.55 mm (32) _____ 38,32

_ 44 ___ Don _____________________ _7.09 ______ 53.65 mm (40) _____ 27,44

_ 45 ___ Dunstable Snow _________6.93 _______ 55.70 mm (----) _____ ---,16

_ 46 ___ DR(S)NO _________________6.57 _______ 50.05 mm (t37) ____ 35,38

_ 47 ___ syed2878 ________________6.36 ______ _61.15 mm (42) _____ 25,49

_ 48 ___ Leo97t ___________________5.94 ______ _48.65 mm (33) _____ 41,36

_ 49 ___ weather-history _________5.90 _______ 49.05 mm (t34) ____ 47,31

_ 50 ___ Stationary Front _________ 5.82 ______ 49.15 mm (36) _____ 44,34

_ 51 ___ Coldest Winter __________ 5.25 ______ 15.00 mm (----) _____ 28, ----

_ 52 ___ froze were the days _____ 3.80 ______ 21.40 mm (----) _____ 37, ----

_ 53 ___ sundog __________________ 3.51 ______ 71.70 mm (----) _____ ----, 33

_ 54 ___ rwtwm ___________________ 3.35 ______ 62.55 mm (43) _____ 50,41

_ 55 ___ Frigid _____________________2.80 ______ 65.05 mm (44) _____ 48,46

_ 56 ___ IRememberAtlantic252___2.53 ______ 68.65 mm (45) _____ 49,47

_ 57 ___ SteveB ____________________2.27 ______ 84.55 mm (48) _____45,52

_ 58 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather ________2.09 ______ 28.80 mm (----) _____46, ----

_ 59 ___ summer8906 _____________ 1.75 ______ 93.70 mm (----) _____---, 42

_ 60 ___ shillitocettwo _____________ 0.90 ______ 79.55 mm (47) _____55,50

_ 61 ___ Earthshine ________________ 0.18 ______ 61.40 mm (----) _____57, ----

_ 62 ___ Ross Andrew Hemphill ____0.06 ______ 61.40 mm (----) _____58, ----

_______________________________________________

_ 1.8 ___ 1992-2021 average ______ 16.65 ______ 30.30 mm (5.7) ____ 1.5, 17.7

_ 4.6 ___ 1981-2010 average ______ 15.48 ______ 32.85 mm (9.3) ____ 8.9, 17.2

_14.8 ___ consensus _______________11.96 ______ 37.30 mm (16.7) ___ 17.5, 26

================================================================

Note: ranks for consensus and recent normals are decimal to show where they sit relative to forecasters.

The rank of 1.8 for 1992-2021 avg signifies that the points are between 1st and 2nd in the scoring table, and

closer to second than first. The two averages are doing very well and our consensus is fairly well ranked too.

January errors were generally larger than December errors for similar scoring levels, so this explains the slight

discrepancy between scoring ranks and average error ranks. Also a forecast that is late receives no penalty to 

rank of average error. 

The seasonal ranks are basically the same as the above, but one will need to enter 2 out of 3 at least, to be ranked

for the winter season. 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

Edited February 5, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[BornFromTheVoid]

Some of the confirmed data is there now, with the 16th to 18th still missing.

The first is confirmed as 12.6C, so the warmest January day on record by 1.0C. 

The average daily downward correction so far is 0.5C, so quite likely to be confirmed as 4.6C after corrections.

[summer blizzard]

For all the mild complaints it will likely be a tad below the 1991-2010 average then.

[Kentish Man]

12 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

For all the mild complaints it will likely be a tad below the 1991-2010 average then.

No idea how the corrections are done but here in the far south east the month did have an overall chilly feel especially if you took out the freakishly warm beginning. It is the lack of weather action (no snow, rain, wind and even remarkably little fog) that was most notable (even last weekend's storms barely registered a blip here).  

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, Kentish Man said:

No idea how the corrections are done but here in the far south east the month did have an overall chilly feel especially if you took out the freakishly warm beginning. It is the lack of weather action (no snow, rain, wind and even remarkably little fog) that was most notable (even last weekend's storms barely registered a blip here).  

Here in Leeds the nights were normally cold and we did have a fair amount of frost mid month. It was also pretty sunny. Hard to judge because it was a single weather type but it rarely felt like a warm month.

[Scorcher]

It certainly felt like a mild month here- and most people I've spoken to have remarked on how mild the month felt to them.

Clear skies meant cold nights at times but not excessively so. By day it has been mild here with hardly any days that would be classed as 'cold'.

[Sunny76]

4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

It certainly felt like a mild month here- and most people I've spoken to have remarked on how mild the month felt to them.

Clear skies meant cold nights at times but not excessively so. By day it has been mild here with hardly any days that would be classed as 'cold'.

I think it yet again, depends on the region people are in. For London, I would class Jan 2022 as a chilly month overall, and the very mild weather, was only for the first 2-3 days. That mild snap was easily forgotten by the 7th of January, when I noticed quite a few sunny and cold days. 

It's been a much more seasonal winter month, but just non-descript.

Here's hoping for more interesting weather as we head into late winter and early spring of 2022. 

[damianslaw]

15 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

It certainly felt like a mild month here- and most people I've spoken to have remarked on how mild the month felt to them.

Clear skies meant cold nights at times but not excessively so. By day it has been mild here with hardly any days that would be classed as 'cold'.

All about perception. A calm day with little wind or rain temps 7-9 degrees often feels milder than a wet windy day 10-12 degrees. No wind chill factor. So I can understand people saying its felt very mild because we've had many calm windless dry days and also very sunny. One of those months that on paper will be near average but felt much milder. 

My own perception is a month often chilly with some mild days. I wouldn't say it has felt continuously mild indeed quite cold at times.

Edited February 2, 2022 by damianslaw

[Sunny76]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

All about perception. A calm day with little wind or rain temps 7-9 degrees often feels milder than a wet windy day 10-12 degrees. No wind chill factor. So I can understand people saying its felt very mild because we've had many calm windless dry days and also very sunny. One of those months that on paper will be near average but felt much milder. 

My own perception is a month often chilly with some mild days. I wouldn't say it has felt continuously mild indeed quite cold at times.

It would be classed as a cold month by the wider population, especially away from the northern regions.

[Snowyowl9]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

It certainly felt like a mild month here- and most people I've spoken to have remarked on how mild the month felt to them.

Clear skies meant cold nights at times but not excessively so. By day it has been mild here with hardly any days that would be classed as 'cold'.

You could say the same thing for last april too..

But that turned out to be the coldest since 1986...

So 1971-00 average 4.2c ...Confirmed figure not in yet...

Driest January since 2006...I d much rather that winter to this though so far..

Edited February 2, 2022 by Snowyowl9

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Snowyowl9 said:

You could say the same thing for last april too..

But that turned out to be the coldest since 1986...

So 1971-00 average 4.2c ...Confirmed figure not in yet...

Driest January since 2006...I d much rather that winter to this though so far..

A late Feb -March 06 I'd be happy with quite a good cold 4 week period with some snow. Late Feb- March 01 as well. 

[Don]

57 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A late Feb -March 06 I'd be happy with quite a good cold 4 week period with some snow. Late Feb- March 01 as well. 

After this winter, I think all coldies would be happy with both those scenarios you mention, too!

Edited February 2, 2022 by Don

[Roger J Smith]

The mean will drop quite a bit from the provisional. The average of the 29 days that are now "adjusted" plus the two provisionals for 16th and 17th would be  4.6 and if those two remaining days dropped as much as some around them did, it would be 4.5. 

[Scorcher]

4 hours ago, damianslaw said:

All about perception. A calm day with little wind or rain temps 7-9 degrees often feels milder than a wet windy day 10-12 degrees. No wind chill factor. So I can understand people saying its felt very mild because we've had many calm windless dry days and also very sunny. One of those months that on paper will be near average but felt much milder. 

My own perception is a month often chilly with some mild days. I wouldn't say it has felt continuously mild indeed quite cold at times.

It is about perception, but it really hasn't been cold by day here. Only 2 days failed to reach 5C in the whole month- certainly a push to call that chilly.

But yes it hasn't been as mild in the figures as it has felt, with so many bright, windless afternoons.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

The mean will drop quite a bit from the provisional. The average of the 29 days that are now "adjusted" plus the two provisionals for 16th and 17th would be  4.6 and if those two remaining days dropped as much as some around them did, it would be 4.5. 

I said expect marked downward adjustment.. we shall see.. there were a number of days I questioned with CET remaining static mid month.. 

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 3rd February 

These almanac entries will migrate over to the February thread starting with the next (4th Feb) instalment. 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 12.2 in 2004; this replaced 10.3 from 1869 and 1967. Other mild readings include 10.1 in 1914, 9.9 in 1801, 9.8 in 1920, 9.7 in 1923, 9.6 in 1862, 9.3 in 1797, 9.2 in 1944, 1960 and 2002, 9.1 in 1798 and 1826 and 9.0 in 1809. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -5.4 in 1841 and 1956. Other low daily means were -5.1 in 1830, -4.4 in 1799, -4.3 in 1912, -3.1 in 1907, -3.0 in 1954, -2.7 in 1773, and -2.5 in 1963;  the lowest since 1963 was -2.4 in 2012. 

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 14.2 in 2004 which replaced 12.9 from 1914. Other mild days include 12.0 in 1920, 11.7 in 1957, 11.6 in 1909, 11.5 in 1967, 11.3 in 1937, 1938 and 1995, and 11.1 in 1923, 1935 and 1946. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 9.7 in 2004 which replaced 9.1 from 1967 which in turn had replaced 8.6 from 1944. Other mild minimum readings were 8.3 in 1923, 7.9 in 1960 and 2002, 7.7 in 1964, 7.6 in 1920, 7.3 in 1914 and 1948, 7.2 in 1922, and 6.9 in 1894 and 1943.

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -0.3 in 1956. (1830 and 1841 may have been slightly colder to perhaps -1.5 C). Other cold values were 0.2 (1963), 0.3 (1954), 0.4 (1907 and 1912), and 1.1 (1976). 

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -10.4 in 1956 which replaced -9.0 from 1912. (1841 may also have been -9 to -11). Other cold minima include -6.5 in 1907 and 2012, -6.2 in 1954, -5.2 in 1963 and 2019, -4.9 in 1965, -4.6 in 1939, -4.4 in 1917, -4.2 in 2009, -3.9 in 1895 and -3.7 in 1899 and 1949. 

The wettest 3rd of February (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 14.42 mm (1945), followed by 12.54 mm (1981) and 10.02 mm (1946).

The wettest week ending 3rd February (28th Jan - 3rd Feb) was 57.04 mm in 1946, followed by 52.43 mm (1990), 52.20 mm (1943) and 50.65 mm (1988).

The least amount falling in a week ending 3rd February was 0.25 mm (2006), followed by 0.43 mm (2007), 0.60 mm (1996), 0.75 mm (1939), 0.79 mm (1932), 1.07 mm (1949), 1.09 mm (1959), 1.40 mm (1998).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 2004, the mother of all Bartletts set up for three days of record breaking warmth.). 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=2004&maand=2&dag=03&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Edited May 12, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[reef]

January confirmed as 4.6C, so 0.1C below the 1991-2020 average and a 0.5C drop from the provisional value.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

I couldnt help but notice this on the Hadley CET site:

Quote

Please note:

This version of CET will be superseded by CETv2 by mid-2022. This will be a fully traceable system, with improved homogenisation and data adjustments to ensure a more consistent data-set through history and up to the present day. Further details to follow in due course.

I wonder what effect this will have?

[Scorcher]

Average of 5.1C here across the month which may explain why it felt like a mild month to me. Seems like it was cooler further south which brought the average down.

[snowray]

Yes it was milder in the NW of the CET zone, Midlands/south had some pretty hard frosts.

[Relativistic]

1 hour ago, reef said:

January confirmed as 4.6C, so 0.1C below the 1991-2020 average and a 0.5C drop from the provisional value.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

I couldnt help but notice this on the Hadley CET site:

I wonder what effect this will have?

'...a more consistent data-set through history and up to the present day.'

Is the whole dataset being adjusted??

[damianslaw]

A preety average January then despite much snow. Mid month was quite cold overall and I was fully expecting a marked downward adjustment.

[Methuselah]

I reckon the CET was about the ony thing that was 'close to average': 100+ hours' sunshine, several air-frosts and almost no rain?

[reef]

16 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

'...a more consistent data-set through history and up to the present day.'

Is the whole dataset being adjusted??

Im guessing, but all I can think of is they have found more data/sites for the earlier years in the series and can fine tune based on that. Theres been a -0.2C adjustment for urban warming since 1974 they might want to build in aswell.

Who knows?

[Walsall Wood Snow]

At 4.6c January 2022 shares the same mean CET with January's:

1738

1775

1801

1878

1926

1927