January 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 18th January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 10.0 in 1828; since then, 9.9 in 1920 was the highest daily mean, followed by 9.7 in 1932, 9.6 in 1934, and more recently 9.5 in 2008. Other mild days included 9.6 in 1875, 9.3 in 1877, 8.7 in 1859, 8.6 in 1821 and 2006, and 8.5 in 1974.

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -6.1 in 1891. Other low daily means were -5.3 in 1881, -5.1 in 1809, -5.0 in 1830, -4.4 in 1838, -4.0 in 1985, -3.6 in 1940, -2.9 in 1867 and 1963, -2.8 in 1823, -2.7 in 1795 and 1941, and -2.6 in 1862.

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 13.2 in 2008.  Other mild days include 12.4 in 1932, 12.2 in 2007, 11.8 in 1920, 11.6 in 2006, 11.5 in 1930, 11.3 in 1934, 11.2 in 1974, 11.0 in 1999, and 10.9 in 1916 and 2012.

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 8.0 in 1920. Other mild minimum readings were 7.9 in 1934, 7.1 in 1921 and 1939, and 7.0 in 1932.

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -1.3 in 1881. Other cold values were -1.1 (1891),  -0.7 (1987), -0.3 (1966), -0.1 (2013), 0.0 (1946), 0.4 (1963), 0.5 (1942), 0.7 (1941), 0.8 (1985), 0.9 (1888 and 1980), and 1.4 (1940).

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -11.0 in 1891. Other cold minima include -9.2 in 1881, -8.7 in 1985, -8.6 in 1940, -6.2 in 1963, -6.1 in 1941, -5.7 in 1897, -5.6 in 1922 and 1978, -5.4 in 1955, -4.5 in 1926, -4.4 in 1942, -4.1 in 1964 and 1987, -4.0 in 1880, and -3.9 in 1936. 

The wettest 18th of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 15.50 mm (2003), followed by 11.97 mm (1945), 11.67 mm (1941), 11.06 mm (1998), and 10.07 mm (1937). 

The wettest week ending 18th January (12th - 18th Jan) was 52.09 mm* in 2008, followed by 50.42 mm (1939) and 45.58 mm (1965). ... ...  ... ... * This is the lowest value for any day's weekly maximum in January.

The least amount falling in a week ending 18th January was 0.50 mm in 1992, followed by 1.17 mm in 2001, 1.54 mm in 1946, 1.90 mm in 1953, 2.01 mm in 1982,  2.43 mm in 1976, and 2.50 mm in 1963.

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 2013, an impending snowfall during a relatively cold spell. Although the snow was more of a feature for the 19th, there was a historic blizzard in 1881 that I will feature tomorrow in the map link. ) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=2013&maand=1&dag=18&uur=1800&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Edited January 18, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Mmm these figures look dubious to me.. yesterday was cold in the CET zone widespread frost.. expecting marked downward corrections this month, I'd say we are probably nearer to 5 degrees now.

Tend to agree, how crazy will it be if this month ends up below any average, having started with unprecedented warmth and likely without snow cover or imported cold, just locally sourced cold? Weird or what. 

[Frigid]

I have a feeling this month will be below 91-20 average but just above the 81-10. It will be incredible if it went below 4C that's for sure given the lack of anything wintry, besides frosts.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Frigid said:

I have a feeling this month will be below 91-20 average but just above the 81-10. It will be incredible if it went below 4C that's for sure given the lack of anything wintry, besides frosts.

Jan 17 ended up on 4 degrees from similar synoptics. Never anything especially cold that month just alot if mid single digit maxima and mins close to freezing. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest CET projection, based on the 06z GFS.

   

Before corrections, the chances of finishing:
Close to average (4.2C to 5.2C) is 59% (5 days ago was 39%)
Above average (>5.2C) is 18% (5 days ago was 39%)
Below average (<4.2C) is 22% (5 days ago was 22%)

The period of the 18th to the 23rd is forecast to average 3.2C, 1.2C below the the 91-20 average.

[Summer Sun]

5.5c to the 17th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 5.5c on the 15th, 16th & 17th

[damianslaw]

17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

5.5c to the 17th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 5.5c on the 15th, 16th & 17th

Still static.. definitely doesn't seem right to me given the widespread sub freezing minima in CET zone..

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.3C +0.7C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP stuck at 32 mm and not likely to add much as high pressure stays nearby to end of month according to GFS. Probably some further downward drift of the CET value although real cold remains far away, enough frosty nights to keep a bit of downward pressure with the most likely finish from current maps around 4.5 to 4.9 C. 

[damianslaw]

If the next update shows us still on 5.5 degrees, my faith in these calculations will be seriously questioned even more. We've seen many a month recently produce marked downward adjustments, 0.5 degrees... 

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 19th January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 11.1 in 1930 which edged out 11.0 from 1828; since 1930, 10.8 in 2007 was the highest daily mean. Other mild days included 10.6 in 1932, 10.0 in 1898, 9.6 in 1986 and 2008, 9.4 in 2006, 9.3 in 1899, 9.2 in 1875, 9.0 in 1796 and 1968, 8.9 in 1974, 8.8 in 1846, and 8.6 in 1949.

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -8.9 in 1823. Other low daily means were -7.2 in 1838, -5.2 in 1830, -4.9 in 1966, -4.5 in 1891, -4.4 in 1809, -3.9 in 1881, -3.5 in 1795, -3.3 in 1786 and 1963, -3.0 in 1776, -2.8 in 1880, -2.7 in 1867, -2.6 in 1815 and -2.5 in 1862.

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 13.6 in 1930 which was nearly matched by 13.3 in 2007.  Other mild days include 12.3 in 1999, 12.2 in 2008, 12.0 in 1898 and 1916, 11.3 in 1932 and 2005, 11.1 in 1954, 1976, 1993 and 2021, and 11.0 in 2006.

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 9.9 in 1932. Other mild minimum readings were 8.8 in 1986, 8.6 in 1930, 8.2 in 2007, 8.0 in 1898, 7.9 in 1899, 7.8 in 1974, 7.7 in 2006, 7.5 in 1939, 7.4 in 1976, and 6.9 in 1949.

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -2.9 in 1881. Other cold values were -1.5 (1966), -0.9 (1963), 0.3 (1880 and 1942), 0.4 (2013), 0.9 (1946), 1.0 (1886 and 1940) and 1.1 (1914).

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -11.1 in 1891. Other cold minima include -8.2 in 1966, -6.6 in 1936, -5.9 in 1880, -5.6 in 1963, -5.5 in 1905, -5.3 in 1886 and 1940, -5.1 in 1955, -4.7 in 1881, -4.3 in 1978, and -4.1 in 1897. The lowest value since 1978 is only -3.2 in 2001 (this may be challenged by 2022 when the Almanac is updated next year).

The wettest 19th of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 15.09 mm (1995), followed by 14.25 mm (1979), 13.66 mm (1942), 13.53 mm (2021), 12.60 mm (1975), 10.11 mm (1936) and 10.04 mm (1999). 

The wettest week ending 19th January (13th - 19th Jan) was 55.53 mm in 1939, followed by 54.97 mm (2008), 52.73 mm (2021) and 49.12 mm (1965). 

The least amount falling in a week ending 19th January was 0.59 mm in 1992, followed by 1.39 mm in 1946, 1.65 mm in 1953, 1.89 mm in 2001, and 2.83 mm in 1957.

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(Today's map link is for 1881, a perfect setup for a southern England blizzard, unmatched since. Tomorrow we will be looking at the coldest day of the CET series in 1838. ) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1881&maand=1&dag=19&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

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Edited January 19, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[BornFromTheVoid]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

If the next update shows us still on 5.5 degrees, my faith in these calculations will be seriously questioned even more. We've seen many a month recently produce marked downward adjustments, 0.5 degrees... 

It has been dropping, just slowly, as the mean the last 3 days has only been 1C below the 91-10 average (cold min cancelled by near average maxima). it's gone 5.54C, 5.48C and 5.46C for the 15th to 17th (by my calculations at least). Most likely that we'll skip 5.4C and land on 5.3C on tomorrows update.

[damianslaw]

Cold min and average maxima should be returning means 2-3 degree range so we should have had drops over last 3 days not static 5.5 degrees. 

[Summer Sun]

5.3c to the 18th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 5.3c on the 18th

[snowray]

So a 0.2c drop for yesterday, playing catch up.

[Roger J Smith]

Partly a two-decimal illusion, went from 5.46 (5.5) to 5.31 (5.3). The day is given as 2.8 C. They had the 14th and 15th at 2.0 and 2.5 then milder on 16th and 17th (4.7, 5.1) which is why it stalled at 5.5 while dropping slowly through the second decimal realm. I did have a look at the 17th hourly reports on the time lapse available on meteociel and noticed that the overnight 16th-17th never got as cold in most of the CET zone which is probably going to sustain a value close to 5.1, whether that 4.7 holds up or not. My guess is that we are actually at 5.2 or perhaps even 5.0-5.1 at this point anticipating downward adjustments. 

Just out of interest, can somebody tell me where you can see provisional values of max and min? I know where to look for provisional means, and finalized max and min. For anyone who was wondering that last point, go to the website where the monthly value is highlighted and click on estimated values. You can find the running two decimal mean and daily values there. I'm going to answer my own question and guess that I just change mean to max or min to see those values. If so, I will edit in a comment. 

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2022

So okay, that works. Not sure where you'd find a link to that, but it works to change the url with "max" or "min" replacing mean. 

Edited January 19, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 5.3C +0.7C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 20th January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 11.2 in 2008 which edged out 11.1 from 1898;  other mild days included 9.8 in 1999, 9.6 in 1828 and 1954, 9.4 in 2021, 9.2 in 1932, 9.1 in 1801, 9.0 in 1796, 1806 and 2004, 8.9 in 1782, 8.8 in 1918, 8.7 in 2002, and 8.5 in 1796, 1899 and 1976. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -11.9 in 1838. This is the coldest day in the entire data set. Other low daily means were -6.8 in 1881, -6.2 in 1795, -5.7 in 1940, -4.6 in 1776, -4.6 in 1810, -4.3 in 1823 and 1880, -3.9 in 1881, -3.7 in 1946, -3.5 in 1783, -3.3 in 1942, -3.1 in 1815, -2.9 in 1963, and -2.7 in 1784 and 1966. 

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 12.9 in 2008 which replaced 12.7 from 2002; before that the record was 12.3 from 1898.  Other mild days include 12.1 in 1954, 12.0 in 1993, 11.5 in 1921, 11.4 in 2005, 11.3 in 1990, 11.0 in 1976 and 1999, and 10.9 in 1899 and 2012. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 9.9 in 1898. More recently it was 9.5 in 2008. Other mild minimum readings were 8.6 in 1999, 8.5 in 2021, 8.3 in 1932, 7.9 in 2004, and 7.1 in 1954 and 2007. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -3.8 in 1940. (1838 may have been as low as -7 to -8 C). Other cold values were -2.5 (1942), -2.1 (1881), -0.9 (1946), -0.7 (1963), -0.6 (1880), 0.3 (2013), 1.0 (1886) and 1.1 (1917 and 1966).

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -11.5 in 1881. (1838 may have been as low as -14 to -16 C). Other cold minima include -7.9 in 1880, -7.5 in 1940, -6.5 in 1966, -6.4 in 1946, -6.1 in 1955, -5.2 in 1936, -5.0 in 1963, -4.9 in 1891, -4.8 in 1927, -4.6 in 1952, -4.4 in 1879, -4.2 in 1905, and -4.0 in 1942 and 2001. (also -3.5 in 2015). 

The wettest 20th of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 16.52 mm (2021), followed by 13.12 mm (1960), 12.37 mm (1969), 12.01 mm (1954) and 10.28 mm (1941). 

The wettest week ending 20th January (14th - 20th Jan) was 61.41 mm in 1939, followed by 55.52 mm (2008), and 54.33 mm (2021). 

The least amount falling in a week ending 20th January was 0.56 mm in 1992, followed by 1.13 mm (1935), 1.45 mm (1946), 1.51 mm (1953), 2.10 mm (1964) and 2.37 mm (2000).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1838, the coldest daily mean in the CET period of record.) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1838&maand=1&dag=20&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Edited January 20, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

5.3c to the 19th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 5.3c on the 18th & 19th

[damianslaw]

Mmm no change.. there must be a downward change tomorrow otherwise I'll say these figures are definitely incorrect. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.4C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall 19.8mm 26.6% of the monthly average

[summer blizzard]

Do we have any sunshine targets? Here in Leeds we are racking up clear skies after skies.

Equally, do we have any records for highest average pressure given the outlook.

[Roger J Smith]

4 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Mmm no change.. there must be a downward change tomorrow otherwise I'll say these figures are definitely incorrect. 

They give 8.9, 4.7 and 0.4 as provisional max, mean and min for the 19th, and the monthly provisional while unchanged in one decimal went down .04 from 5.31 to 5.27. Possibly those numbers would be revised at end of month and no doubt we are closer to 4.9 or 5.0 than 5.3 at this point. We'll see what happens. Would imagine it will be 5.2 rounded from about 5.23 after 20th. 

[Roger J Smith]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Do we have any sunshine targets? Here in Leeds we are racking up clear skies after skies.

Equally, do we have any records for highest average pressure given the outlook.

I'm sure there must be sunshine records and this month could be near those or will be eventually. As for pressure records, that might not be as easily checked but I had a look back at a few dry Januaries of the recent past and just did a daily check from weather maps on wetterzentrale, looks to me like the average in 1963, 1997 and 2006 was around 1025 mbs in each case, so any average above 1025 is probably getting towards an extreme; it's hard to recall more than two or three days this month without a pressure above 1020 mbs, after the first and second when it was so mild. 

I'll come up with a more definite answer on the pressure question as I have a data base of daily pressure readings (four time daily) at a grid point in the Irish Sea, that goes back to 1850. I would have to average the months in that, the use I made of that data base was more in terms of looking for connections to lunar cycles so the averages I created don't match calendar months. 

(edit _ so I had a look at that data base and will post the results in the next post)

Edited January 20, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

Having looked at the pressure data for 1851 to 2014 at the data point in the Irish Sea, I found that these Januaries had the highest average sea level pressures (at that point, but I'm sure it would not be greatly different in any part of England or Wales) ... 

1992 _ 1028.1

1964 _ 1027.5

1963 _ 1026.9

1935 _ 1026.3

1896 _ 1025.6

1907,1911 _ 1025.2

1880 _ 1024.8

1858,1876,1929 _ 1024.3

1882 _ 1023.7

1987 _ 1023.1

1989 _ 1022.9

1981 _ 1022.6

2000 _ 1022.4

1997 _ 1022.3

1888 _ 1022.2

1898 _ 1021.8

1905, 1953 _ 1021.4

2006 _ 1021.3

1902 _ 1021.2

=======================

The average for the 164 years was 1011.9 mbs and the lowest average was 994.5 in 1948 with 995.0 in 2014. 

It looks like an average above 1030 mbs would be quite exceptional. Looking at February averages they are a bit higher and some do reach 1030.