January 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

4 hours ago, emmett garland said:

Can I just ask are we on one of the lowest weeks ever ,precipitation wise Roger..Would love to see the figures.

Probably, won't know the exact (low) totals until end of month, can then compare to the lists I show each day in the almanac, but anything that totals less than 2 mm for seven days will get into that list. Record low values have been running around 0.5 mm per week. Since the grid is the entire area of England and Wales, any location that gets a small amount will show up so it's rare to see seven consecutive days with absolutely zero precip. 

[damianslaw]

6 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Probably, won't know the exact (low) totals until end of month, can then compare to the lists I show each day in the almanac, but anything that totals less than 2 mm for seven days will get into that list. Record low values have been running around 0.5 mm per week. Since the grid is the entire area of England and Wales, any location that gets a small amount will show up so it's rare to see seven consecutive days with absolutely zero precip. 

We had a dose of light rain early Friday I think, but amounted to little, otherwise apart from a spit or two of drizzle, its been a dry fortnight here, quite rare for January. 

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 24th January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 10.6 in 1782 with 10.5 in 1834, 10.2 in 1918, and 9.8 in 2016 and 2018 the warmest since 1918. Other mild days included 9.5 in 1938, 9.4 in 1969, 9.0 in 1921, 8.8 in 1804 and 1828, 8.7 in 1817, 8.6 in 1973 and 2008, and 8.5 in 1937.

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -8.2 in 1963, which replaced -6.0 from 1881. Other low daily means were -5.3 in 1815, -4.6 in 1945, -4.5 in 1795, -4.0 in 1829, -3.9 in 1814, -3.7 in 1823, -3.4 in 1907, -3.2 in 1838, and -3.0 in 1933 and 1940. The lowest since 1963 was -1.4 in 1979 with -1.1 in 1992 and -0.6 in 2021.  

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 13.7 in 2016 which replaced 12.5 from 1918. Other mild days include 11.9 in 1962, 11.7 in 1999, 11.5 in 1938 and 2018, 11.2 in 1990, and 10.9 in 1928 and 1969. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 8.2 in 2018. Other mild minimum readings were 7.9 in 1918 and 1969, 7.8 in 2008, 7.5 in 1938, 7.2 in 1921, 7.1 in 2002, and 7.0 in 1981. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -3.6 in 1963. Other cold values were -3.2 (1945), -2.5 (1907), -2.4 (1881), -0.8 (1879), -0.4 (1933), 0.2 (1950), 0.1 (1917) and 0.5 (1880 and 1922). It was 1.4 in 2021. 

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -12.7 in 1963. Other cold minima include -9.5 in 1881, -9.1 in 1940, -7.3 in 1958, -6.0 in 1945, -5.6 in 1979, -5.5 in 1933, -5.3 in 1897, -5.1 in 1914, and -4.2 in 1907 and 1992. 

The wettest 24th of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 9.49 mm (1960), which is the lowest value for January. The next two highest for the date were 9.32 mm (2014) and 8.96 mm (1975). 

The wettest week ending 24th January (18th - 24th Jan) was 59.22 mm in 1960, followed by 52.25 mm (1995), 51.96 mm (1975), 51.25 mm (1971), and 50.13 mm (1941). 

The least amount falling in a week ending 24th January was 0.50 mm (1950), followed by 0.55 mm (1992), 1.08 mm (2017), 1.09 mm (2020), 1.26 mm (1953), 1.84 mm (2011), 2.33 mm (1932) and 2.34 mm (1987).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1907, a cold interval most remarkable for the intensity of the arctic high over the Baltic region over the two days before this map link. Pressures near 1070 mb set a record for Europe. This high continued to drift south into the Black Sea region.) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1907&maand=1&dag=24&uur=0600&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

 

Edited January 24, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

5.0c to the 23rd

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 5.0c on the 21st, 22nd & 23rd

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

5.0c to the 23rd

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 5.0c on the 21st, 22nd & 23rd

Thought we may have dropped into the 4s by now...  there have been some cold night recently and I remain surprised how high the CET currently is.. 

[Frigid]

Yeah the CET is a bit suspect, wouldn't be surprised with a downwards correction similar to last November. If we didn't have those 3 mild days at the start it would probably be in the 3s. Shows how uneventful January's can still end up cool.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 5.2C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Indications of a spring like finish to Jan but not sign of any rain for us . I would say sunny Sheffield likley to finish around 5.4C to 5.7C.

[Don]

2 hours ago, Frigid said:

Yeah the CET is a bit suspect, wouldn't be surprised with a downwards correction similar to last November. If we didn't have those 3 mild days at the start it would probably be in the 3s. Shows how uneventful January's can still end up cool.

The Netweather tracker currently has the CET at 4.68C and that's normally higher than Hadley, so I do expect a fairly sizeable downward correction this month.

[North-Easterly Blast]

18 minutes ago, Don said:

The Netweather tracker currently has the CET at 4.68C and that's normally higher than Hadley, so I do expect a fairly sizeable downward correction this month.

Metcheck have their CET tracker at around 4.25*C up to today.  I acknowledge that this is often lower than Hadley's final confirmed figure, but sometimes it is similar.  Net weather's tracker figure is often a bit higher than Hadley's final confirmed figure.

[damianslaw]

Today was cold in the CET zone, maxima widely below 6 degrees, so if it is stuck at 5 tomorrow, then well - mmm its accuracy highly questionable.. given minima should be in the 0-3 degree range.

[Derecho]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Today was cold in the CET zone, maxima widely below 6 degrees, so if it is stuck at 5 tomorrow, then well - mmm its accuracy highly questionable.. given minima should be in the 0-3 degree range.

Lack of diurnal range in recent days though. It's a bit chilly for January but not notable. Friday night was the last one with any sharp frosts and even then there was marked variation in minima, Thursday night was the last which had a sharp frost widely.

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 25th January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 11.6 in 2016, which broke a record of 11.4 set in 1846. This value of 11.6 tied two previous days in 1834 and 1932 for the top value in January, all of which appear likely to be replaced by 1st Jan 2022. Other mild readings on this date include 10.8 in 1824, 9.3 in 1918, 9.1 in 1903, 9.0 in 1817, 1962 and 1969, and 8.8 in 1926. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -8.9 in 1795. Other low daily means were -7.1 in 1881, -5.2 in 1945, -5.1 in 1963, -3.7 in 1775 and 1829, -3.6 in 1823, and -2.9 in 1815;  the lowest since 1963 was -1.3 in 1979 with -0.5 in 2013. 

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 13.5 in 2016 which replaced 11.7 from 1977. Other mild days include 11.3 in 1918, 1975 and 2002, 11.2 in 2019, 11.0 in 1926, and 10.9 in 1911 and 1994. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 9.7 in 2016. Other mild minimum readings were 7.5 in 1962, 7.4 in 1903, 7.3 in 1918, 7.2 in 1969, and 6.9 in 1973.

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -4.0 in 1881. Other cold values were -3.2 (1945),  -0.7 (1996), -0.6 (1917), -0.3 (1880), 0.0 (1879 and 1950), and 0.5 (1933 and 1963). 

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -10.7 in 1963. It may have been -12 or lower in 1795. Other cold minima include -10.1 in 1881, -7.1 in 1945, -6.9 in 1907, -6.2 in 1958, -4.8 in 1922, -4.5 in 1979, -4.2 in 2021 and -4.1 in 2013. 

The wettest 25th of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 18.84 mm (1960), followed by 17.58 mm (1995), 12.25 mm (1977), 11.79 mm (2002), 10.91 mm (2013) and 10.64 mm (1956). 

The wettest week ending 25th January (19th - 25th Jan) was 66.62 mm in 1995, followed by 56.78 mm (1960), 52.31 mm (1971), 51.32 mm (1975), 50.88 mm (1939 and 50.61 mm (1988). 

The least amount falling in a week ending 25th January was 0.45 mm (1950), followed by 0.89 mm (1933), 1.11 mm (2017), 1.34 mm (1953), 1.52 mm (1991), 1.63 mm (1968),  1.85 mm (2020), 2.06 mm (1987) and 2.14 mm (1932).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1945, a severe cold interval reaching record levels in the next few days. See next almanac for the link to 25th Jan 1990 wind storm.) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1945&maand=1&dag=25&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

 

Edited January 25, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[damianslaw]

26 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Lack of diurnal range in recent days though. It's a bit chilly for January but not notable. Friday night was the last one with any sharp frosts and even then there was marked variation in minima, Thursday night was the last which had a sharp frost widely.

I'll be surprised if we don't see a marked adjustment month end.

[Roger J Smith]

31 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Today was cold in the CET zone, maxima widely below 6 degrees, so if it is stuck at 5 tomorrow, then well - mmm its accuracy highly questionable.. given minima should be in the 0-3 degree range.

The 5.0 is from 4.96 so I calculate that it would only take a daily mean of 2.6 to drop the running mean to 4.84 (4.8). 

I would say it's almost definitely going to be 4.9 if not 4.8. 

 

[Derecho]

10 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I'll be surprised if we don't see a marked adjustment month end.

Yup well it has a standard -0.3C adjustment at the end of the month for urbanisation anyhow then possible further adjustments once the full load of data has come in. Usually end of month adjustments range between -0.6C and 0C

[damianslaw]

37 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup well it has a standard -0.3C adjustment at the end of the month for urbanisation anyhow then possible further adjustments once the full load of data has come in. Usually end of month adjustments range between -0.6C and 0C

So, we are quite close to average right now..

[Derecho]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

So, we are quite close to average right now..

Pretty much, especially if you take out the opening 4 days.

Can't remember a drier January here though, pretty reminiscent of November though obviously at this point its easier for surface cold to build. November was very mild at times.

The dry weather will probably soon break in Spring though...

Edited January 24, 2022 by Quicksilver1989

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Pretty much, especially if you take out the opening 4 days.

Can't remember a drier January here though, pretty reminiscent of November though obviously at this point its easier for surface cold to build. November was very mild at times.

The dry weather will probably soon break in Spring though...

Yes take out the first 4 days, so far its been a very average January overall, the final week is set to be milder though but not especially so. Still think a good bet is a finish in the mid to high 4s.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 5.1C +0.5C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

4.9c to the 24th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 4.9c on the 24th

[damianslaw]

At last in the 4s!

[North-Easterly Blast]

19 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Yes take out the first 4 days, so far its been a very average January overall, the final week is set to be milder though but not especially so. Still think a good bet is a finish in the mid to high 4s.

In the end we will maybe not be far from average in terms of mean temperature for this month apart from the first three days, but I would not call a pattern of anticyclonic nothingness for possibly two thirds of the month an average weather pattern for January - little in the way of any really cold days, and little fog compared to what you would expect with a calm pattern, and any "proper cold synoptics" reserved for about three or four days in the first week.  This month is very likely to be a month where its overall CET does not tell you a great deal about the weather that the country experienced during the month.

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 26th January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 10.0 in 1834. The highest daily mean since 1834 is 9.6 in 1903, with 9.3 in 2003 the highest since then. Other mild readings on this date include 9.6 in 1824, 9.1 in 1786, 1911 and 1969, 9.0 in 1773 and 1846, 8.9 in 2016, 8.8 in 1962, and 8.7 in 1916, 1921 and 2008. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -7.6 in 1945. Other low daily means were -5.9 in 1803, -5.2 in 1881, -3.7 in 1848, -3.5 in 1776 and 1910, -3.4 in 1795, -3.3 in 1784, -3.2 in 1870, and -2.8 in 1950;  the lowest since 1963 (-2.3) was -1.8 in 1996 with -1.2 in 1979 and -0.8 in 1986. 

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 13.2 in 2003 which replaced 11.9 from 1983. Before that the record had been 11.5 from 1944. Other mild days include 12.3 in 2016, 11.3 in 1957, 11.2 in 2002, 11.0 in 1911, and 10.9 in 1890, 1956 and 2008. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 8.4 in 1903. Other mild minimum readings were 7.6 in 1921, 7.5 in 1969, 7.3 in 1962, 7.2 in 1911, and 7.1 in 1916.

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -4.5 in 1945. Other cold values were -1.0 (1881),  -0.7 (1917), -0.6 (1947), -0.1 (1954 and 1996), 0.1 (1879, 1950 and 1952), 0.3 (1910), 0.8 (1880). 1.0 (2017) and 1.1 (1979). 

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -10.6 in 1945. Other cold minima include -9.9 in 1963, -9.3 in 1881, -7.2 in 1910, -5.6 in 1950 and 1986, -5.5 in 1907, -4.6 in 1909, -4.4 in 1880 and 1895, -4.3 in 1959, -4.1 in 1952, and -3.9 in 1933.

The wettest 26th of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 22.03 mm (1940) which was mostly freezing rain, followed by 13.26 mm (2002), 12.46 mm (2013), 11.41 mm (2001), 11.35 mm (1972), 10.76 mm (2016) and 10.49 mm (1975). 

The wettest week ending 26th January (20th - 26th Jan) was 54.82 mm in 1971, followed by 52.81 mm (1995), 50.00 mm (1988), 49.92 mm (1960), and 49.21 mm (1975).  

The least amount falling in a week ending 26th January was 0.03 mm (1933), followed by 0.43 mm (1950), 0.98 mm (2006), 1.04 mm (1963), 1.08 mm (2017), 1.29 mm (1991), 1.35 mm (1987), 1.82 mm (1964), 1.83 mm (1968), and 1.96 mm (1932).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1990 - 25th, as a severe wind storm arrived from the Atlantic. The 26th is the anniversary of the 1978 Great Lakes superstorm with blizzard conditions in Ohio, Indiana and Michigan and a central pressure of 955 mb near southern Lake Huron. These map features will be edited after this round so that the "Burns Day" storm appears on the 25th and the 1945 cold spell on the 26th.) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1990&maand=1&dag=25&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

 

Edited January 26, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

4.8c to the 25th

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 4.8c on the 25th

[damianslaw]

Probably bottomed out now perhaps a slight rise up to 5 degrees by month's end. With expected downward adjustment a finish between 4.5 and 5 degrees. A slightly milder than average month.