SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[danm]

It does seem a lot more snow fell, and over a wider area, than the Met were expecting. Near enough 6 inches over north London, SW Essex and south Herts. A good few inches over E Sussex and parts of Kent too. 

[pages]

8 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Here's a reason/justification for the warnings etc and no Amber - read comments/replies. 

 

Sounds like the met office already trying to make excuses for massive mistake via twitter from the comfort of their warm homes

I get not wanting to put out unnecessary to early but it's obvious on couple of occasions now that they don't have anyone with authority working on Sunday evenings to make a quick decision.

They should of least given amber possibly red warnings this afternoon giving People heads up before venturing out, there vehicles stranded over night on all the major motorways now.

 

[SilentSnow]

Some foxes enjoying the snow in the back garden earlier. Probably the first time they've ever seen snow so are probably thinking 'what the heck is this stuff!'

 

 

 

[Robbie Garrett]

8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

It was nailed on by 00z yesterday. Thorough consistency from most credible hi res models.

I'd say though, an Amber was more warranted. Most of the transport network has collapsed.

What are the National Severe Weather Warning Service Impact tables?

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Make sure you know what to do when severe weather is forecast

 

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

More towards 5" 

Kasim during my 50 years interested in weather from the age of 8 yrs old and unlike some people that don’t have a weather station and put a tape measure in the snow and say it’s what ever depth as you know that isn’t the correct method to get an accurate measure.

I will be out early tomorrow morning at 1st light  I’ll update it and see if your correct.

thanks for your knowledgeable posts 

[Robbie Garrett]

Just now, pages said:

Sounds like the met office already trying to make excuses for massive mistake via twitter from the comfort of their warm homes

I get not wanting to put out unnecessary to early but it's obvious on couple of occasions now that they don't have anyone with authority working on Sunday evenings to make a quick decision.

They should of least given amber possibly red warnings this afternoon giving People heads up before venturing out, there vehicles stranded over night on all the major motorways now.

 

I fully agree

[Neilsouth]

 

[80sWeather]

2 minutes ago, danm said:

It does seem a lot more snow fell, and over a wider area, than the Met were expecting. Near enough 6 inches over north London, SW Essex and south Herts. A good few inches over E Sussex and parts of Kent too. 

Yep, just goes to show get the cold in first and all. Still snowing here in Cambs.

[Stabilo19]

Epic 

 

 

 

[Neilsouth]

 

 

 

 

[Stabilo19]

Amber warning required for sure, many places had more than 10cm, it wasn't just in isolated spots

[Neilsouth]

 

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

I'd say though, an Amber was more warranted. Most of the transport network has collapsed.

What are the National Severe Weather Warning Service Impact tables?

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Make sure you know what to do when severe weather is forecast

 

Thats what im saying im in agreement with what you guys are saying

The data certainly wasn't supportive of a 5050 as shown on their matrix

if we can't properly use / be confident in the extremely powerful hi res suite, what is the purpose of having them?

[Stabilo19]

Many getting stuck on Tottenham Hale railway bridge

[Pixel]

Quite a surprise tonight as the hook of snowfall came upon these parts!  So.. armed with imaginary dog (+camera) went out for a stroll and encouraged those with bald tires to engage 2nd gear up our hill and took some seasonal snaps (-:

 

[alexisj9]

This low is much stronger than it was supposed to be, getting 40 mph gusts down here. Hope it's not doing something it shouldn't be.

[Kasim Awan]

8 minutes ago, pages said:

Sounds like the met office already trying to make excuses for massive mistake via twitter from the comfort of their warm homes

I get not wanting to put out unnecessary to early but it's obvious on couple of occasions now that they don't have anyone with authority working on Sunday evenings to make a quick decision.

They should of least given amber possibly red warnings this afternoon giving People heads up before venturing out, there vehicles stranded over night on all the major motorways now.

 

Anyone with experience could tell that by around 1pm on the radar, the system was closely following the projection of the Arome / Harmonie which modelled very heavy snow in Kent / Essex / North London later that evening. So it was very likely to closely follow this path and by that point I personally was 90% sure of a big event which is why I made the post assuring the thread of 15cm

This prior radar / model conjunction was the perfect opportunity for the met to get a more authoritative warning out before evening travel

Instead, the met bottled this opportunity which probably influenced the severe impacts we've had tonight

[Robbie Garrett]

A lot of it is also political.  MetO staff, Agency Workers, Gritters, Street Workers all want pay rises. I've lived in a Labour Ward all my life and have never seen this level of incompetence from them by the lack of gritting or salt on the streets.  Tomorrow is going to be carnage.

But ultimately it makes the GOV look bad, again.   Maybe potentially this is because it's a Sunday, but Feb 2009 was a Sunday and that was the the Amber Equivalent?

What time was that Arome/Harmonie model? None of the TAFS really had SN in it till this afternoon, so most flights got caught out. Luckily though most flight crew took extra for the fog/mist which would cover the snow.

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Anyone with experience could tell that by around 1pm on the radar, the system was closely following the projection of the Arome / Harmonie which modelled very heavy snow in Kent / Essex / North London later that evening. So it was very likely to closely follow this path and by that point I personally was 90% sure of a big event which is why I made the post assuring the thread of 15cm

This prior radar / model conjunction was the perfect opportunity for the met to get a more authoritative warning out before evening travel

Instead, the met bottled this opportunity which probably influenced the severe impacts we've had tonight

 

9 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Thats what im saying im in agreement with what you guys are saying

The data certainly wasn't supportive of a 5050 as shown on their matrix

if we can't properly use / be confident in the extremely powerful hi res suite, what is the purpose of having them?

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Robbie Garrett said:

A lot of it is also political.  MetO staff, Agency Workers, Gritters, Street Workers all want pay rises. I've lived in a Labour Ward all my life and have never seen this level of incompetence from them by the lack of gritting or salt on the streets.  Tomorrow is going to be carnage.

But ultimately it makes the GOV look bad, again.   Maybe potentially this is because it's a Sunday, but Feb 2009 was a Sunday and that was the the Amber Equivalent?

What time was that Arome/Harmonie model? None of the TAFS really had SN in it till this afternoon, so most flights got caught out. Luckily though most flight crew took extra for the fog/mist which would cover the snow.

 

The lack of reactivity and rapid decision making is extremely poor imo. The services you mention only come into life when kicked by the met and that kick was no more than a reluctant tap at best. Even given the mounting evidence that this event would seriously deliver. A yellow warning doesn't activate any of the reactive responses from LAs which were desperately needed. It also wont encourage local sites on social media to warn locals (these sites hold the most influence on behaviour) - this pattern only occurs from amber upwards. The amount of yellow warnings which have been issued prior for light or nonexistent sprinklings - the public would've tarnished this with the same brush. 

[Kasim Awan]

An inability to read the potential at hand and assign the appropriate warning and public information campaign to address this potential.

[Mizzle]

1 hour ago, SilentSnow said:

Some foxes enjoying the snow in the back garden earlier. Probably the first time they've ever seen snow so are probably thinking 'what the heck is this stuff!'

 

 

 

That is so wonderful   Lucky you!

[Kentspur]

3 hours ago, Robbie Garrett said:

A few of the networks will run ghost trains tonight alas like 2010 otherwise the Network will ice over.

Been shovelling and ice melting most the night my back aches! Lovely to be out in it for once i honestly doubted whether it would settle as it hardly ever does here in NW Kent!! Think theres more here than at home it seems which makes sense. Around 4inches here. Some earlier photos a couple before it stopped

[Captain Shortwave]

There is a light dusting of snow here and it is still snowing lightly at the moment. It is better than nothing and the event was never really forecast to amount to anything here.

[Eastips85]

Lovely photos everyone stay safe and enjoy! Would love to be sharing the same but unless pictures of rain and wet surfaces is your thing i’l leave it until the only thing that will bring snow here…THE BEAST

[Jason T]

Dear lord, a good covering here, roads are bad.