SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Darkcloud]

Take care out there everyone, roads are like ice rinks round here after all the rain. So many reports of accidents already.

[Methuselah]

A very thin, but clearly discernable, covering of snow this morning, meaning that 2023 will not be snow-free!

[snowblind]

-5.9 at 9 this morning. Nice and sunny.

[Hotspur62]

Still -2.9 @10.30 here in Locksbottom.Think we may have an ice day here at this rate!!

[alexisj9]

Here in Dover 1⁰c at 12pm, 2⁰c at 1pm not bad for a coastal town.

[Snowangel-MK]

Brrrrr well the cold has arrived and it seems not it so much of a hurry to leave - great to have some dry weather and enjoy blue sky & sunshine - I did struggle to open the car doors this morning and the frost was very thick on the windscreen so took a while to get out but roads well gritted thankfully

[snowblind]

Just popped above freezing for a couple of hours. Maxed out at 0.2 now back to freezing. Frost all day in the shade.

[Hotspur62]

6 hours ago, Hotspur62 said:

Still -2.9 @10.30 here in Locksbottom.Think we may have an ice day here at this rate!!

Hit a high of -0.4 at 2.40 but has been dropping steadily since then and @4.30 down to -1.4 already.Got to say met office app I use was a bit optimistic today as was quoting 3 degrees today!!

[snowblind]

8 minutes ago, Hotspur62 said:

Hit a high of -0.4 at 2.40 but has been dropping steadily since then and @4.30 down to -1.4 already.Got to say met office app I use was a bit optimistic today as was quoting 3 degrees today!!

I found that during the December cold spell it consistently forecast max temperatures to be 2 to 3 degrees above what they actually were. Seems to be the same this time as well. Not sure why, generally it's pretty good with temps but doesn't do well when it's cold.

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, snowblind said:

I found that during the December cold spell it consistently forecast max temperatures to be 2 to 3 degrees above what they actually were. Seems to be the same this time as well. Not sure why, generally it's pretty good with temps but doesn't do well when it's cold.

They’re awful for extremes I find. 
 

During the extreme heat of Summer they were under by a couple degrees here and in December over by a couple. Might be a coastal thing but I tend to just use the models available to me for a more accurate forecast. 

[lawrenk]

Pretty pants MO update it has to be said, though I suppose we should be grateful for a fairly prolonged drier spell.

As a south coaster it feels like we’re down to the last 4 or 5 weeks now for a “proper” cold spell with snow both falling and sticking around. Yes, no problem with it falling well into March but even a BTFTE will struggle to avoid rapid melt during the day.

[snowblind]

1 minute ago, lawrenk said:

Pretty pants MO update it has to be said, though I suppose we should be grateful for a fairly prolonged drier spell.

As a south coaster it feels like we’re down to the last 4 or 5 weeks now for a “proper” cold spell with snow both falling and sticking around. Yes, no problem with it falling well into March but even a BTFTE will struggle to avoid rapid melt during the day.

Agree it was pretty pants. But it changes a lot so hopefully it will change for the better, from a cold perspective, soon.

[Nick F]

Was an ice day at home in Caterham-on-the-hill, max temp of -0.4C, now -2.7C. 

Benson in Oxfordshire already -7C, Bournemouth Airport -4C.

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Was an ice day at home in Caterham-on-the-hill, max temp of -0.4C, now -2.7C. 

Benson in Oxfordshire already -7C, Bournemouth Airport -4C.

-3C here at the mo, Nick... But one thing I appreciate is the local council's replacing all those horrible sodium-vapour lights with LEDs. I can actually see the stars!

Edited January 17, 2023 by Ed Stone

[Bazza118]

An ice day here as well. The lowest temp this morning was -8.25c at 07:16 and we peaked at -0.5c at 2pm. Now at -4.4c

 

[TSNWK]

Metoffice app has me down for light snow at 06:00am. Maybe a few of those showers from the north west will make it down here?

[LightningLover]

54 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

-3C here at the mo, Nick... But one thing I appreciate is the local council's replacing all those horrible sodium-vapour lights with LEDs. I can actually see the stars!

Argh, no! I much prefer the old ones; LED's are pap for lamppost watching, are harsh on the eyes, and ostensibly can affect wildlife in a negative way! But I suppose on the other side of the coin they are far better for the environment.

[Freeze]

Rare ice day here on the coast, max -0.2c 

[Jason T]

Hello all, well..what a frustrating pain in the weeble it is getting snow in to our sector. General summary tonight freezing cold, clear dark skies with plenty of frozen fire flies, just flickering away. More winter to come yet though. 

Minus 3 here atm

Edited January 17, 2023 by Jason T

[danm]

9 minutes ago, Jason T said:

Hello all, well..what a frustrating pain in the weeble it is getting snow in to our sector. General summary tonight freezing cold, clear dark skies with plenty of frozen fire flies, just flickering away. More winter to come yet though. 

Minus 3 here atm

We’ll always struggle with convection from a NW’rly. 

[Tom Montalbano]

Evening all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

Thought I would throw my hat into the ring, regarding the  Synoptic evolution out to t144 [Mon. 23rd Jan]

I've chosen this time scale, as we have "cross-model" agreement of all models, from the 12z model runs.  

You can clearly see that agreement in the four examples I've posted below. I've chosen examples from 2 European models [ECM/UKMO], backed up by 2 North American models [GEM/GFS].

     12z ECM Mon. 23rd Jan, [t144]        12z UKMO Mon. 23rd Jan, [t144]

  

      12z GEM Mon. 23rd Jan, [t144]         12z GFS Mon. 23rd Jan, [t144] 

 

As can be clearly seen all 4 models from their 500hPa charts from their operational run, all agree on a strong area of High Pressure over N.W. Russia, running S.W, through Scandinavia, linking up with strong heights close to the Azores.

All 4 models depict relatively low heights, over the Mediterranean Basin. 

Plus, they all show lobes of the Polar Vortex between Baffin Island [N.E.Canada], stretching eastwards across Greenland.

As has been mentioned on the MAD Thread, this strong arm of the Northern branch of the Jet Stream, is not allowing High Pressure to ridge westward from Scandinavia, across the G.I.N. [Greenland/Iceland/Norway] corridor.

Not wanting to be a "Party Pooper" but think that the current "From Horse" is likely to be a mid Atlantic High, in the region of the U.K. but hopefully that will morph, into something more promising.

To facilitate the arrival of our Regions favoured catalyst for a Cold/Wintry spell, we need those low heights over Greenland to relent westward, to Baffin Island. A strong lobe of the Polar Vortex in the Baffin Island area has not been detrimental to a Cold/Wintry spell arriving in the S.E. Region, previously. Below, are three examples of when low heights over Baffin Island proved no hindrance to Cold/Snowy Weather, arriving from the east, over our Region. Example 1]  The amazing Jan. 1987 Snowy spell. 2]. Thames Snow Streamer Feb. 2009 event  3]. late Feb/early March BFTE [Beast from the East], event.   

          00z Mon. 12th January 1987               00z Mon. 2nd February 2009          00z Tues. 27th February 2018

    

Having just read Sheldon Cooper's [aka Eagle Eye], post on the Model Highlights Thread and being blown away by this young Man's not inconsiderable, technical knowledge.

Although I didn't understand it fully, I felt compelled to give you a like, E.E.

Does anybody know if there happens to be a Meteorological Roget's Thesaurus, in existence?

Really feel that I need one, to fully understand your very detailed posting, E.E.!!

Hope you can land your 1 in 3 punt, on a  S.S.W. and your Big Bang theory, delivers!!

In order to get our "Snow Fix", my Wife and myself, have taken to watching Scandinavian Crime Dramas.

Our latest "binge watch" is called OUTLIER.

It features a rogue and extremely cold G.F.S. model run, that turns out to be correct. Obviously, very fictional!!

But I fib, it's about a Norwegian serial killer but although set mostly in the high Arctic Summer, there are some great scenic shots with patches of Snow still visible, on Mountain peaks.

Below, is a link to MeteoGroup's, Weather for the Week ahead courtesy of Sarah Keith-Lucas:

Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather

Looks as if our Region may have to make do with thar awful phenomenon [Faux Cold], at least for the time being  

As we are aware, we are currently in a La Nina phase, of the ENSO state and they tend to result in "front loaded" Winters.

Really hoping thar our Cold/Snowy Weather "Ship has already sailed" and we are staring down the barrel of a very mild and wet end to Winter.

Finally, I have to comment on a Weather related item, I saw on Sky News this Morning.

I think the News presenter was Kay Burley.

Ms Burley asked a Sky Meteorologist, "where on earth has this cold Weather, come from?". As if a bit of Frost/Snow was unusual at this time of the Year!! Typical over analysis, from Sky in my opinion.

Err, it's mid January and therefore mid-Winter Ms Burley, and it's hardly been record breaking has it!!

Rant over. Night all.

Regards,

Tom Q.       

Edited January 17, 2023 by Tom Quintavalle

[Eagle Eye]

36 minutes ago, Tom Quintavalle said:

 

 

Having just read Sheldon Cooper's [aka Eagle Eye], post on the Model Highlights Thread and being blown away by this young Man's not inconsiderable, technical knowledge.

Although I didn't understand it fully, I felt compelled to give you a like, E.E.

Does anybody know if there happens to be a Meteorological Roget's Thesaurus, in existence?

Really feel that I need one, to fully understand your very detailed posting, E.E.!!

Hope you can land your 1 in 3 punt, on a  S.S.W. and your Big Bang theory, delivers!!

 

Thank you and I forgot about the time I was Sheldon Cooper . Sometime tomorrow I will start writing up detailed explanations of most phenomena I write about in my posts though it may take a while of course so hopefully you can understand the direction I come from. Anyway, just thought I'd pop in the thread as I haven't done probably for a while, hope you're all doing well. I'd say I'm finally mentally stable after a few months of high's and low's but I can never be sure. I've been busy living the single life and posting my daily Severe weather risks on Twitter. Parts of Turkey/Cyprus got around 4 or 5 days of on and off heavy rainfall that likely led to some flooding in areas but for the first time in a while there was no real risk for them today. Instead there was risks mainly for parts of Italy and SE Europe as well as Spain. Anyway, got off topic a bit there. Honestly right now I'm just having fun best friending (likely not a word, I have no idea why I do well in English ) with Georgie who's even sportier than me and just like me liked Geography and finds maths boring. We've somehow got closer together now and now I feel like her protective brother. My dream is to be able to high five and hug her after she wins an Olympic gold (she wants to be an Olympic Swimmer) and know that I may have contributed to that a little bit and of course, forecasting the weather is important for an indoor sport. She's a typical ginger; hates warm loves cold, so I felt like the bringer of bad news last Summer quite a lot. Anyway, that's all for now as I've got Physics homework to do .

[Kentspur]

Appeared from nowhere but noticed some light flurries have reached Bedfordshire/ Bucks and I'm on night shifts atm finish 6am so will know if it reaches us! Light top up for the Downs peaks perhaps after the ice day.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Kentspur

[Kentspur]

1 hour ago, Kentspur said:

Appeared from nowhere but noticed some light flurries have reached Bedfordshire/ Bucks and I'm on night shifts atm finish 6am so will know if it reaches us! Light top up for the Downs peaks perhaps after the ice day.

Now it's disappeared and they seem to be dying out over N/W Home counties

[Sparky68]

Can confirm no snow Beds into Bucks , cold though!