SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[kold weather]

I think most on here will see some snow, I suspect the further SE you go the lower the chances if it settling simply due to timing issues overnight.

As it is very marginal I don't think totals will be huge in the morning. 

As for Weds evening, big uncertainty with that, there was a trend north in the last 12-24hrs which brings more northern parts into play whilst perhaps brings far higher risk of rain for more southern areas. Given its only going to be temporary anyways I'd not begrudge that happening, as much as some of the earlier double barrel fronts for my area were awesome. Stare the load afterall!

Beyond Thursfay and rain and wintry mixes probably order of the day whilst the north get smashed.

[Nimbusman]

Dew point falling away here ( down from 2.0°C to 0.1°C in two hours) as the arctic air digs in, as others have pointed out convection kicking off in many areas to the NW now so some may get surprise snow shower today…

[Jamie M]

 

Textbook sleet earlier

Wasn't expecting it as DP was near 3C but this brief shower came in over the Estuary and the temperature dropped to 3.9C with a dew point of 0.8C.

[Vortex3929]

Had some brief sleet a while ago. Temps dropping but felt surprisingly "mild" earlier this morning I thought. Was expecting it to feel cold

[Captain Shortwave]

A much brighter afternoon as the frontal cloud has cleared. In the end there is enough strength in the sun to develop a couple of light showers, so I have seen a few flakes of snow. Not overly cold at 5c.

[East Kent Snow Desert]

11 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

 

Textbook sleet earlier

Wasn't expecting it as DP was near 3C but this brief shower came in over the Estuary and the temperature dropped to 3.9C with a dew point of 0.8C.

Promising for tonight/tomorrow then!

[throwoff]

It's all on the 12Z now. If that comes good I will have some faith, but I have had my hopes dashed too many times in recent winters.

[Jamie M]

1 minute ago, East Kent Snow Desert said:

Promising for tonight/tomorrow then!

Exactly what I was thinking, it's good the Estuary hasn't killed off all of the potential for falling snow so we might be alright somewhat. You're definitely getting a better shout in Herne though than me a bit closer to the town centre 

[Methuselah]

25 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think most on here will see some snow, I suspect the further SE you go the lower the chances if it settling simply due to timing issues overnight.

As it is very marginal I don't think totals will be huge in the morning. 

As for Weds evening, big uncertainty with that, there was a trend north in the last 12-24hrs which brings more northern parts into play whilst perhaps brings far higher risk of rain for more southern areas. Given its only going to be temporary anyways I'd not begrudge that happening, as much as some of the earlier double barrel fronts for my area were awesome. Stare the load afterall!

Beyond Thursfay and rain and wintry mixes probably order of the day whilst the north get smashed.

I'm not sure that I will, as I'm far too far north for anything from the south and far too west for whatever runs down the North Sea. 

[Freeze]

The south coast seems to have been stuck under this front for an eternity it just doesn't want to push through, I doubt it truly will tbh. I feel I won't have any chance to see a few flakes falling although seeing the sun would be a nice second prize. 

[throwoff]

Just been scrolling through the metreociel runs.... really not looking good for Kent.

[PiscesStar]

2 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Just been scrolling through the metreociel runs.... really not looking good for Kent.

THAT'S Against meto latest forecast of between 5-10 cms for Kent 

[throwoff]

Just now, PiscesStar said:

THAT'S Against meto latest forecast of between 5-10 cms for Kent 

I know, I am waiting for the 12z now off the GFS

[clark3r]

I am not expecting settling snow here, I imagine will just be wet snow or sleet. 

[Neilsouth]

It was snowing south of Canterbury, around 1pm!

[Mcconnor8]

2 minutes ago, clark3r said:

I am not expecting settling snow here, I imagine will just be wet snow or sleet. 

Agree, potentially if the precipitation is heavy enough it will bring down the temperature enough to settle but not very likely I think.

[Floatylight]

Just had a grauple shower

[PiscesStar]

6 minutes ago, throwoff said:

I know, I am waiting for the 12z now off the GFS

This mornings runs showed meto musings!! 

[throwoff]

Just checked the Met and they have brought the snow for me up to 1am.

Even light snow 1-8am would be a decent cover.

[steveinsussex]

Looking increasingly poor for here based on the models 

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

Just had a grauple shower

Your post made me look out the window, FL. And it's graupelling here too! 

[Vortex3929]

3 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Just checked the Met and they have brought the snow for me up to 1am.

Even light snow 1-8am would be a decent cover.

The arome 12z for 7am you mentioned in the mod seems similar to the met perhaps? If that chart happened, that will be a nightmare rush hour, and school runs possibly.  

[lawrenk]

Hot off the press from the MAD thread. Everywhere is in the sweet spot and at the same time those places will be the poor sods that miss out completely.

Hope that clears things up.

[Lauren]

2 hours ago, throwoff said:

For those of you tracking it in Kent. We now stand at -

00 and 06 runs support snow from 3am

Met office forecast rain

BBC saying sleet

Apple weather saying snow 

So basically it’s going to be weather of some sort. 

That last line is always guaranteed!

[kold weather]

20 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Looking increasingly poor for here based on the models 

You'll get a good hit overnight, I'm near certain on that one. Big question mark for later in the day, you maybe too far south like me but it will be close I reckon.