Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

[Mr T]

14 minutes ago, Halfamilefromnowhere said:

Well outlook is looking milder and maybe stormy but  we have light snow falling here tonight.

Yes light dusting of snow here in Aboyne tonight after leaving local restaurant.

[blizzard81]

The models have been brutal this last week or so for us coldies. Now Exeter have completed the full volte face. That's the biggest backdown from a cold spell from the met office I can remember. They really did want to wish us a very merry Christmas didn't they? I'm with Don on this one. Stuff the weather, it absolutely sucks just about every winter now. Time to relax and enjoy some quality time with loved ones which is far more important than our failed winter cravings

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The models have been brutal this last week or so for us coldies. Now Exeter have completed the full volte face. That's the biggest backdown from a cold spell from the met office I can remember. They really did want to wish us a very merry Christmas didn't they? I'm with Don on this one. Stuff the weather, it absolutely sucks just about every winter now. Time to relax and enjoy some quality time with loved ones which is far more important than our failed winter cravings

The Gfs 12z operational gives coldies a few crumbs of comfort with hints of another wild goose chase but I can’t forgive this epic fail, it’s left me with no enthusiasm to post…except to say again, merry Christmas and a happy new year to all my netweather buddies, you know who you are! …  

[simon65]

ooh my fav ,mildish and wet ,if that cold front just only came over us ,what a lot of snow we would of had .Never mind ,theres more to weather than snow ,this is why i expect we are so interested in the weather cos if it was predictable ,it would be rather boring

 

[Uncertainty]

6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

The models are starting to sniff out the next 'push' on the pattern from the tropical Pacific. Perhaps an impressively potent ridge across the Arctic from that side?

It's a shame ECM parks a low by Svalbard for 7 days straight (dubious much?!) as I expect it would have looked a little more interesting by D10 otherwise, more akin to the GFS 12z.

Who knows, maybe this will develop further tomorrow and make for a nice Xmas present?

Regardless, wishing a Happy Xmas or Happy Holidays to all who celebrate .

Noticed that too James, the wave breaking on that ridge recently and going forward has been quite the sight to behold.
 

GFS 12z is a total outlier tonight but looks too early for me, however come the turn of new year when the AAM cycle starts to cycle up again I can see a scenario like that gaining support. 

In 17/18 a poorly forecasted wave breaking event in the Atlantic spawned a similarly unlikely Scandi ridge and ultimately led to the events that gave the strat vortex the knockout punch needed for the BFTE. I do think we’ve entered that territory now, where we need to get that knockout punch in before mid/late Jan as otherwise it will surely take over affairs until the best part of winter is done. 

Merry Christmas to all. Except the sun that is…As much as we love and need you, you’re definitely on the naughty list this year for spoiling our Christmas cold spell!

[Georgina]

Merry Christmas to everyone on netweather

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

25 minutes ago, Georgina said:

Merry Christmas to everyone on netweather

Same to you 

[Premiere Neige]

36 minutes ago, Georgina said:

Merry Christmas to everyone on netweather

Merry Christmas!

[feb1991blizzard]

37 minutes ago, Georgina said:

Merry Christmas to everyone on netweather

good job i didn't book a room in the snake pass inn - waste of money that would have been!

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Wow, look at those 850 temps in Northern France 15c - usually reserved for July!

 

This is great stuff, potentially record challenging warmth going into NYE, as usual the signal for early cold failed miserably, one month down and hopefully these sort of charts will be maintained, certainly nothing to hint of anything substantially colder into 2022 in the long range stuff. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

merry xmas all!

[SqueakheartLW]

3 hours ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Wow, look at those 850 temps in Northern France 15c - usually reserved for July!

 

This was the closest December 2015 chart I could find that shows the 10C 850hpa isotherm getting into the UK

That produced maxes around 16/17C in the UK and with even more widespread 10C uppers and those 15C ones over France, dare I even suggest if we get lots of sunshine with that we could even get 20C in the SE at the end of the year if this came off?

[Duane S.]

Whilst I might sneak a peek at the 18z later, that’s me done for before Christmas.

Have a great Christmas time all and may the charts be full of emerging cross polar flows and Icelandic wedges

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

This was the closest December 2015 chart I could find that shows the 10C 850hpa isotherm getting into the UK

That produced maxes around 16/17C in the UK and with even more widespread 10C uppers and those 15C ones over France, dare I even suggest if we get lots of sunshine with that we could even get 20C in the SE at the end of the year if this came off?

even for biggest mild winter believer, I think 20C a bit of a push! maybe 10 years or so too soon for a 31 Dec 20C? in 6 weeks though Feb definitely possible

[Kasim Awan]

If it's any consolation, my snow risk for Christmas night / early hours of Boxing day has drastically downgraded due to an increase in the projected speed of the front. This has made the difference between 10-15cm and a slushy dusting, with significant and disruptive snow on hills to my north. I now expect the later at best.

Bah Humbug

Merry Christmas all.

[Uncertainty]

One list one from me before I sign off.

GEFS for the last few runs has had this little signal if the outermost reaches…

I’m not sure what the extended  EPS anomaly would look like, there are certainly some pretty stormy members but there’s 20 or so really quite interesting ones too. Bizarrely, the cluster algorithm has assigned a  non +NAO regime to every cluster. Not sure a human would arrange them like that but hopeful nonetheless!

This was the same clusters for the same time stamp in 2017

3 blues and a raging strat with ++NAO all other the seasonal / subseasonal dashboard. Hopeless you say?

Heres what we ended up with

This unforecasted ridge went on to produce a short but critical period of the Scandi-Greenland (high-low respectively) dipole pattern which provider the heat flux to destroy what had been a very very strong strat. 
 

The models can be wrong. At 72 (which we’ve just experienced) at 144, at 240 and certainly beyond. But we do need to hope they’re wrong about the strat this winter.

All the best for tomorrow and beyond !

Josh 

[Wold Topper]

Keep up the good work peeps, whilst i dont contribute to this thread, due to being a rank amateur, i do read it daily and as always it makes for a 'lively' and imformative read, 

Merry Christmas to All on Netweather!❄??

[SqueakheartLW]

Maybe all the coldies on here can have a more merry Christmas by dreaming about these cold charts wishing for them to come true

Enjoy your Christmas cold fantasies, if only all of these could verify.

[minus10]

Well sitting hear, in front of the fire:

with presents around the tree and glass of wine in hand. Guess what...its pouring outside. Cant help thinking that if only the air had been colder as was originally forecast much of this rain would have been the festive white stuff, particularly as it is only slowly progressing ne. Ah well, tomorrows another day...in fact its christmas day so i wish all you good folk on here a merry, healthy and safe christmas.  Will try and stay away from the charts over christmas, however not been very successful so far! Cheers & best wishes to you all..

[Wold Topper]

5 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Well sitting hear, in front of the fire:

with presents around the tree and glass of wine in hand. Guess what...its pouring outside. Cant help thinking that if only the air had been colder as was originally forecast much of this rain would have been the festive white stuff, particularly as it is only slowly progressing ne. Ah well, tomorrows another day...in fact its christmas day so i wish all you good folk on here a merry, healthy and safe christmas.  Will try and stay away from the charts over christmas, however not been very successful so far! Cheers & best wishes to you all..

If only the rain this aft had been snow, bit of a shame, But its xmas! Oh and....

[joggs]

Massive backtrack from the MO on the point of embarrassment tbh.

They've not got a clue as much as most going by the last week or so.

Begs the question,what's the point of +70/80 hrs on models.. . ?

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, joggs said:

Massive backtrack from the MO on the point of embarrassment tbh.

They've not got a clue as much as most going by the last week or so.

Begs the question,what's the point of +70/80 hrs on models.. . ?

I reckon the background signals (MJO specifically) was the reason for their initial colder wording, and now that looks fruitless they just go with their best guess. If the AAM gets going and MJO stays good it could soon flip back to cold in the next day or 2

[Moon child]

1 hour ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Same to you 

Merry Christmas too all, tis a truly binding time ho ho , ,Santa says bed , snow in the air, , just chill and relax, retail worker as me, Donny, ho ho ho.

[jellybaby1969]

Double digits in Ayrshire next week.. lovely winter Temps. Happy with , 11 or 12c  such a milld climate we have n wishing everyone a mild Xmas n milder new year.

[mbrothers]

I guess the met long rang forecast goes on what the models show. The models did show cold and now show mild. Not sure what’s so confusing.