Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[Day 10]

8 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Both a long way from any serious cold for us.

I beg to differ, it would be pretty cold & frosty, great Winter weather.

 

[geordiekev]

11 hours ago, geordiekev said:

As you were on the GFS 0z, all the main drivers there at day 5.

Scandi heights

Euro trough

Cut off low moving out in Atlantic

PV on the move from Canada

For comparison to UKMO 12z,  from a bleary eyed 12hrs ago, for Day 5 there's plenty of comparisons to GFS evolution from 18z & 0z

Edited January 6, 2022 by geordiekev

[Cuban Zebra]

FWIW I’m pretty sure for the next few days we’re going to continue to see huge swings such as this on the 6z

To this on the 12z

 

Both bring cold weather but different routes!! Exciting model watching times indeed!!

[swfc]

Rinse and repeat 12z gfs. That said fi creeps closer and very fluid output.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Really not sure why people are getting fixated with every model run.!  Gfs latest is not without interest. Just a couple of days ago, high pressure looked like sitting to our south for next week, now it's building a ridge from Scandinavia across the UK. Okay may not deliver the deep cold initially ,but the high is at least building in the right kind of area. To be honest I'm quite surprised by the latest run/s no one can exactly call in the next 10 days but it's making much better and interesting viewing than just a few days ago.....

[Ali1977]

Definitely something brewing for coldies, the GFS is just toying with the ideas. Hopefully we will get a decent day 10 ECM - as in a route to cold

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 hours ago, Nick2373 said:

This is a quote from a very respected forecaster on another site. There’s something brewing without a doubt!

Thier words below not mine.

 

I'll stick my neck out and say I'm more confident that something is brewing. It fits in perfectly with the analogues / WAI.

 

Oh I agree, there’s something brewing alright imo.  This won’t be a damp squib winter come the post mortem.

 

BFTP

[Battleground Snow]

12z GFS very messy with lows and pieces of the vortex all over the place. Tries to go for HLB right at the end of the run

AO starting to tank again mid month, and the NAO, is trending slightly negative too.

Edited January 6, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[Froze were the Days]

FI shows low heights over the Azores and into the Med which all 'coldies' would want but all we have is a lot of MLB...knowing our luck associated with a lot of cloud but not overly mild and the predicted theme of moving away from a Greenland High being dominant delayed. That's if you believe the current GFS output!

Just seen the above post from BFTP...so what will it be then? strange soundbite to make, a damp squib of a winter it is then! 

Edited January 6, 2022 by Froze were the Days

[Ali1977]

Epic FI , remember this is still on 2/3rds the way through Jan. you know, similar to the big freeze in 1947 I know, I know!! 

[Ali1977]

Day 9 control looks very good by day 9, let’s see what happens 

[Midlander]

Really struggling to get behind the GFS after the failure of cold in December, the background signals don't look good 

Really wish I could be more positive but I just think it's going be another one of those events where it gets watered down come T0

Edited January 6, 2022 by Midlander

[Staffmoorlands]

10 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Really not sure why people are getting fixated with every model run.!  Gfs latest is not without interest. Just a couple of days ago, high pressure looked like sitting to our south for next week, now it's building a ridge from Scandinavia across the UK. Okay may not deliver the deep cold initially ,but the high is at least building in the right kind of area. To be honest I'm quite surprised by the latest run/s no one can exactly call in the next 10 days but it's making much better and interesting viewing than just a few days ago.....

I tend use the ECM, Met office 10 day trend & 14 day updated forecast. None of these suggest anything wintry after tomorrow. However, there is still a week or two left of January and quite a few of us have seen some good snowfall today

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 9 control looks very good by day 9, let’s see what happens 

I'd much prefer this setup for long term chances

[Benny123]

4 minutes ago, Midlander said:

Really struggling to get behind the GFS after the failure of cold in December, the background signals don't look good 

Really wish I could be more positive but I just think it's going be another one of those events where it gets watered down come T0

Agreed. ECM having none of it. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

AGW ender! Lol.  I’ll post the pressure chart shortly, it’s t384 so a slowburner…..so it’s 100% nailed on! .  Extraordinary event for the US if that happened.  A double pv

and we are ‘mild’ in comparison.   Look at that….never have seen a chart like that…and probably never will.

 

BFTP

Edited January 6, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[sheikhy]

Can we get ecm to stop being so flat this evening and bring in more of an continental flow earlier on cos at the moment thats the best we can hope for seriously!!

[Lampostwatcher]

Gfs 6z and 12z both good runs 

We have something to hunt down ❄

[carinthian]

Evening . Just wondering if GFS is on to something. Last 2 runs have a surface and upper wind flow coming from the east and build of pressure to squeeze out the temporary warmer uppers over the British Isles. If that is the case it is a development at some pace. UKMO latest seems to heading the same way at 144t. Interesting development this .

C

Edited January 6, 2022 by carinthian

[Purga]

FI teasing again

[ANYWEATHER]

23 minutes ago, Midlander said:

Really struggling to get behind the GFS after the failure of cold in December, the background signals don't look good 

Really wish I could be more positive but I just think it's going be another one of those events where it gets watered down come T0

To be honest, no model was any good during that time, ......still plenty of time for things to change, and they often do very quickly, even before computer models simulate the output....

[bluearmy]

if you thought recent gfs runs have been crazy this side of the Atlantic, upstream is plain nuts at day 16 on that op

another run for the bin methinks

the only thing to take from that operational is that despite it again having a different solution to the previous run, upstream it still manages to amplify over the n Atlantic 
 

[StingJet]

13 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

AGW ender! Lol.  I’ll post the pressure chart shortly, it’s t384 so a slowburner…..so it’s 100% nailed on! .  Extraordinary event for the US if that happened.  A double pv

and we are ‘mild’ in comparison.   Look at that….never have seen a chart like that…and probably never will.

 

BFTP

For sure BFTP ... has the GFS dialled in some earth crust displacement ... the north pole now appears to be located somewhere around Kentucky ... how far south can super cooled 850's get ?


 

[E17boy]

Hi peeps

Hope you are all well

I may speak in reality here but nevertheless some may not find this post appealing. Trust me I am the biggest and maddest snow lover ever going my family calls me a little kid whenever winter comes and I am constantly talking about when we will get our first flakes. Alas here in Walthamstow NE London we have not seen a single flake yet and I am still waiting.

Anyway back to why I think some may not like this post. I have been on this forum for quite a while I am no expert and have great respect with all the other more knowledgeable ones who share their thoughts. The reality is in here I feel sometimes it’s like the Bermuda Triangle, my focus being here on f1 and day 10 charts. As it is often the case they churn out great output that is 10 days away but alas all this seems  to mysteriously disappear when we get nearer the time. I know this is a cold chasing thread and us coldies are so discontent that anything showing some kind of cold gets us excited. I have come to realise we are constantly doing this chase after chase it’s as if we are rubbing salt on our own wounds all the time. Not saying 10 day charts will not verify but if we honestly think to ourselves what chance is there, I think in reality most of us know that answer. So it’s best to IMO to yes look at what is trending but never believe until at least 3 days away, even then it’s no guarantee as this is weather we are talking about. I am sure if we follow this it may cut out the heartache of downgrades.

Where we go from here who knows, there are hints of high pressure building, but what happens with this high is a mystery that won’t get resolved yet. We may be about to see the coldest of the winter period coming up or it may result in nothing and the rest of January May carry on as it has so far. It is frustrating I know like a lot of yourselves I am feeling the pinch as I have not seen a single flake so far this winter. Yes it’s only 6th of January today and to make an assessment for the rest of winter is not worthy. The weather will always change and sometimes it will change for what we want and sometimes not. We still got a journey to get through don’t know how many signal failures or delays there will be on this Search for snow express but I hope we do reach our destination eventually.

have a great evening all

kind regards

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND GOES ON

[Tim Bland]

5th run on the trot from GFS to show a decent cold spell in FI, differing  evolutions but hopefully a case of all roads lead to Rome? Just need to see signs of this appearing on day 10 ECM Soon..