Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[Lukesluckybunch]

my word what an awful run the 12z is..the amount of energy coming from greenland area is staggering!

Edited January 8, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
adding text

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

I expect that will break from Greenland and topple with another LP riding over then diving SE into Denmark

BFTP

[Ali1977]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

my word what an awful run the 12z is

Yes, we don’t want to be here at day 12 as it’s another long road to chances again - albeit noted it’s still only 3 weeks into Jan. 

Lets see what the ENS do, day 10 is Deep FI

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yes, we don’t want to be here at day 12 as it’s another long road to chances again - albeit noted it’s still only 3 weeks into Jan. 

Lets see what the ENS do, day 10 is Deep FI

It isn’t a long road from there.  We aren’t in Bartlett territory whereby the set up is ‘stuck’

BFTP

Edited January 8, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[TSNWK]

Still plenty of cold about.

Higher ground in the north of England and I would Scotland away from coast in for some fun on this run

[weathercold]

Really dire 12z runs for cold, nothing of any note. 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, weathercold said:

Really dire 12z runs for cold, nothing of any note. 

That was expected pre 192h. 

[Staffmoorlands]

Just now, weathercold said:

Really dire 12z runs for cold, nothing of any note. 

GFS offers some wintry weather in the usual spots (i.e. North of Birmingham) for a couple of days. A repeating pattern which started in November and has given us around 6 snowy days so not too bad

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

That was expected pre 192h. 

pretty much the whole run though kasim

[TSNWK]

10 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Really dire 12z runs for cold, nothing of any note. 

Sorry I cannot agree with this… it’s settled and cold | chilly for the south at first and then there is a countrywide snow event around day 12 and then then northern half of the uk is exposed to cold zonailty.. could be an aweful lot worse and this from someone who needs a cold easterly to deliver..

[Staffmoorlands]

GEM 240

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Sorry I cannot agree with this… it’s settled and cold | chilly for the south at first and then there is a countrywide snow event around day 12 and then then northern half of the uk is exposed to cold zonailty.. could be an aweful lot worse and this from someone who needs a cold easterly to deliver..

i suppose if the 12z was the worse possible outcome i think we would all take it! but i think we was expecting more

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

i suppose if the 12z was the worse possible outcome i think we would all take it! but i think we was expecting more

There is nothing to expect. We’re in a pattern whereby the pressure patterns will average LP to the N and HP to the S. 

We’re stuck in this pattern for the foreseeable.

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

GEM 240

 

Cold in the south and just starting to head north.. not bad thank you for sharing codge.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

There is nothing to expect. We’re in a pattern whereby the pressure patterns will average LP to the N and HP to the S. 

We’re stuck in this pattern for the foreseeable.

alright then crewe,we need the reverse of that!

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

i suppose if the 12z was the worse possible outcome i think we would all take it! but i think we was expecting more

Expectations management… recent runs are a long way from dross… 

[Methuselah]

31 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

my word what an awful run the 12z is..the amount of energy coming from greenland area is staggering!

Day 10 looking good, peeps?!

[Froze were the Days]

GFS dets slowly going off the idea of a dominant GH/strong mid-Atlantic ridge for a period...no surprise there, all looks a bit 'so so' to me.

[Ali1977]

Colder mean by day 9 compared to the 06z

 

Some GEFS here at day 9, cherry picked but possible outcomes 

Edited January 8, 2022 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Colder mean by day 9 compared to the 06z

lets see if we can get lower then -5 on the ens somthing i havnt seen yet

[Tim Bland]

28 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Really dire 12z runs for cold, nothing of any note. 

Must have imagined this ..

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

lets see if we can get lower then -5 on the ens somthing i havnt seen yet

Day 9 , -5c mean for many 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Day 9 , -5c mean for many 

thats good stuff ali..was looking at my own area haha

[Benny123]

43 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

my word what an awful run the 12z is..the amount of energy coming from greenland area is staggering!

I'd take cold zonality over 'high n dry' any day of the week! 

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Must have imagined this ..

Agree . Unless we switch off the gulf stream or reverse the spin of  the earth we need to accept our climate and not be using words like dire, aweful when models are not showing -10 uppers from the east. Recent runs are Interesting and the envelope at day 9 onwards is wide enough and with options as per ens 

to improve further 

Edited January 8, 2022 by TSNWK